Draft Rumors

[candyman93]

3 hours ago, DoleINGout said:

Do think it is more likely they trade down from

4 and try to get Ward or Fitz in the top half of the draft?

Don’t rule out Bradley Chubb. I think he’s the guy they want more than anybody not named Darnold.

[DoleINGout]

Just now, candyman93 said:

Don’t rule out Bradley Chubb. I think he’s the guy they want more than Darnold.

I think they want Mason Rudolph at 33 if he's there, (he won't), and Chubb opposite Myles Garrett and the rest of the Browns line has always been a tantalizing idea. I hope for the Browns sake they select Chubb because he's a safer prospect for the Browns than any of the "top" quarterbacks this year. Barkley and Chubb would be a HAUL for the Browns and incredibly impressive.

[DoleINGout]

@candyman93 Minkah Fitzpatrick at 4 would be almost equally impressive as Chubb, (paired with Saquon Barkley at 1).

[Broncofan]

The one thing this CB class has is speed and short area quickness.   They lack size by a mile but the former skills are getting such love it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see 4-5 CB go round 1.   It’s so expensive to get a premium CB or even retain on the 2nd contract the positional value really has driven the draft stock of late.  

I would also observe the NFL drafts often chase trends.  The 2 years after the great 2014 WR class we saw 6 WR go in 2015 and 4 in 2016.  A lot weren’t worth it.  But after the awesome 2017 CB class I could see a similar halo effect for 2018 esp with the speed shown at the Combine.  Definitely not as good as 2017 but recency bias is very real.  

[Dr LBC]

1 minute ago, DoleINGout said:

this years corner prospects are shallow at the top relative to other drafts.

Sorry, but that reads like revisionist history.  Outside of the tippy-top CB prospect in every year's class, there were legitimate criticisms as to why the rest of the guys that ended up going in the first round (even ones that went ahead of the top-rated prospect) weren't "1st round locks."  The position is prioritized and has been since the league became more pass-centric.  And what exactly is this "weight" that he's carrying very little of?  Teams covet ball production from corners.  That's not a theory, that's something that's been proven out through multiple years of recent history.  The #1 mover of DB's in drafts is ceiling and potential (see Artie Burns, Eli Apple, Byron Jones - and no... up until the combine in 2015, no one credible had him as a 1st rounder), while he's likely scheme-specific (a lot of other guys recently drafted in the 1st have been), potential as a playmaker is arguably his biggest selling point.

[DoleINGout]

@The LBC Jackson did make plays last season, only he isn't overly athletic, and he is limited to a zone scheme. I don't currently see Jackson as a bonafide playmaker, nor beliveve he necessarily translates into a one, (unless he is apart of a good defense with a heavy emphesis on zone coverage). You're right, that the corner position has been prioritized in the last decade, but the trend of how many taken in the first will depend on how strong the choices are. Even with that said, I named three corners this year, (with two potential fourth options in the first), that could go this year, (and match the data trends). The Artie Burns, Byron Jones, and Eli Apple guys you mentioned were all filled out, where as this years corners are viewed as skinnier than preferred, (Carlton Davis and Tarvarus McFadden being the lone exceptions). In 2015, I saw Byron Jones as a first round prospect early because be was so athletic, (and I may have been on this website at that time for someone to check on that). The major downside to Bryon Jones was he had no position. Still doesn't, and his tackling is average. But Jones is just such a special athlete that he can still contribute on defense. In Joshua Jackson's case, he is neither an outstanding athlete nor a special, (i.e. surefire fire round talent), coverage guy. His playmaking ability is a one year fluke at this point from playing on a bad team in a zone scheme. He has more to prove and less size than Artie Burns, Byron Jones, or Eli Apple. Combined with the depth at most positions in this years draft class, that profiles Jackson as still a late first or early second, (because of corner position prioritization/importance/value).

[howru8888]

On 3/4/2018 at 10:23 PM, jrry32 said:

You won't be winning the Super Bowl. I don't want a team of choir boys, but you need the right culture. If you have 53 problem children on your team, you're not going to have that. You need leaders in the locker-room who will hold guys accountable. You need choir boys to keep the peace. And you need some a-holes to bring edge to the team. It's all about finding the right balance. But when you don't have that balance, you're going to have a toxic locker-room with guys slacking off on the field. I know because it happened to the Rams in 2016.

 

On 3/4/2018 at 7:31 PM, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

When does that happen though?

53 *******s lead to locker room issues, off the field issues, poor leadership, etc.

Like most things in life, it take a diverse group of talents and personalities to accomplish things.

Yes I understand that. My point was I don't care who is on my team as long as the end result is wins

[Dr LBC]

6'1", 192 is now, "not filled out" or "skinny" compared to 6'0", 193 Artie Burns or 6'1", 199 Eli Apple?

Sorry, man, but you're literally coming across like you're just making stuff up to fit your narrative.  Don't get me wrong, there are definite flaws in Jackson's tape (most notably he looked at times like the bad kind of Marcus Peters last season, "making business decisions" when it came to actually getting physical and tackling.  But in the right scheme, he absolutely has shown the kind of athleticism necessary to not only succeed but flourish.  There is more to a CB than long-speed.  There were only 4 other CB's at the combine (and only 1 of those among the guys carrying likely 1st round grades) who put up a better short-shuttle time; his 3-cone time met the threshold of other recent 1st round CB's who have gone into zone-schemes and succeeded.  That drill projects directly into zone-defenses.  Sorry, but when a guy has only 14 starts to his name, you're certainly entitled to raise a question-mark over whether his production is sustainable (hell, at the rate he was at last year, it'd be naive not to expect his base-level to regress to the mean some), but to call it a fluke is unfounded.

You're trying to paint this picture that only "special athletes" go in the 1st round.  That's not the case.

[DoleINGout]

1 hour ago, The LBC said:

6'1", 192 is now, "not filled out" or "skinny" compared to 6'0", 193 Artie Burns or 6'1", 199 Eli Apple?

Sorry, man, but you're literally coming across like you're just making stuff up to fit your narrative.  Don't get me wrong, there are definite flaws in Jackson's tape (most notably he looked at times like the bad kind of Marcus Peters last season, "making business decisions" when it came to actually getting physical and tackling.  But in the right scheme, he absolutely has shown the kind of athleticism necessary to not only succeed but flourish.  There is more to a CB than long-speed.  There were only 4 other CB's at the combine (and only 1 of those among the guys carrying likely 1st round grades) who put up a better short-shuttle time; his 3-cone time met the threshold of other recent 1st round CB's who have gone into zone-schemes and succeeded.  That drill projects directly into zone-defenses.  Sorry, but when a guy has only 14 starts to his name, you're certainly entitled to raise a question-mark over whether his production is sustainable (hell, at the rate he was at last year, it'd be naive not to expect his base-level to regress to the mean some), but to call it a fluke is unfounded.

You're trying to paint this picture that only "special athletes" go in the 1st round.  That's not the case.

Sorry, but you come across as conflicted to me, because you keep saying "sorry" before each of your major points. It's okay, you're just sharing your opinion with me and a few facts. From what little I watched of the combine, Joshua Jackson was not one of the things I focused on. In fact, I didn't watch any of the defensive backs at the combine. I mostly read peoples reactions in the combine thread here. The rest of my opinions are based on watching videos online of the guys I discussed in a previous post. The height of these corners was not my contention here. I'll admit that I somehow confused Denzel Ward's slightness of frame criticsms with Josh Jackson. Alas, my judgement of Jackson is only that his shortcomings, we've both touched on, are enough that he has a chance to fall out of the first. That's my opinion because of the balance at the top of most positions this year. It's not outlandish, I just think he has a greater chance to drop based on my projected picks for each team.

[Iamcanadian]

3 hours ago, DoleINGout said:

I think they want Mason Rudolph at 33 if he's there, (he won't), and Chubb opposite Myles Garrett and the rest of the Browns line has always been a tantalizing idea. I hope for the Browns sake they select Chubb because he's a safer prospect for the Browns than any of the "top" quarterbacks this year. Barkley and Chubb would be a HAUL for the Browns and incredibly impressive.

Great formula for staying in last place, yeah, I can count on one finger, no maybe a thumb, on how many winning franchises there are without a franchise QB, Hu....m!!! 

[DoleINGout]

7 minutes ago, Iamcanadian said:

Great formula for staying in last place, yeah, I can count on one finger, no maybe a thumb, on how many winning franchises there are without a franchise QB, Hu....m!!! 

The Browns are going to draft Saquon Barkley first overall and lose their shot at a QB just like when they decided to pass on Carson Wentz. I considered Josh Allen at 4 maybe but I think they'll be too tempted to take Chubb or Fitzpatrick now that they've got Tyrod Taylor. Josh Rosen could be there at 4 but do you really think the Browns will draft him? I don't. He seems like a good quarterback and typically a good pick, but I still don't think the Browns will take him because of his supposed attitude. There is always next year to try finding another QB if Taylor isn't the answer or right fit. The Browns should be a lot better either way, be it Rosen, Chubb, Fitzpatrick, Allen, Lamar Jackson, or a trade down. Oh, by the way, I have Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield going 2, 3.

[Dr LBC]

1 minute ago, DoleINGout said:

Sorry, but you come across as conflicted to me, because you keep saying "sorry" before each of your major points. It's okay, you're just sharing your opinion with me and a few facts. From what little I watched of the combine, Joshua Jackson was not one of the things I focused on. In fact, I didn't watch any of the defensive backs at the combine. I mostly read peoples reactions in the combine thread here. The rest of my opinions are based on watching videos online of the guys I discussed in a previous post. The height of these corners was not my contention here. I'll admit that I somehow confused Denzel Ward's slightness of frame criticsms with Josh Jackson. Alas, my judgement of Jackson is only that his shortcomings, we've both touched on, are enough that he has a chance to fall out of the first. That's my opinion because of the balance at the top of most positions this year. It's not outlandish, I just think he has a greater chance to drop based on my projected picks for each team.

I'm not denying that there's a chance that he falls out of the 1st, but that chance is no greater in the grand scheme of things than Mike Hughes falling out for similar inexperience (he too only has one year as a starter) or lack of ideal length, or Oliver's bad habit of allowing separation at the route-stem (just as Justin Gilbert's hitch in his hips in transition probably should have kept him out of the 1st and Trae Waynes' hip and footwork on short and intermediate stuff (coupled with his fondness for grabbing) stood a legitimate chance of keeping him out of the 1st.  I'm just looking at the teams picking from 18-on in the 1st round and the teams for whom a jump back into the bottom of the 1st from their early, early 2nd would be relatively inexpensive should a run on CB's start and the systems that those teams run - and there are more fits for Jackson and the strengths in his game than not, which leads me to believe it's more likely than not that he ends up finding a spot in the last 1/3 of the round.  A 5th or 6th CB getting into the 1st round is more likely, just with the way teams value particular positions, than a second guard (will really depend on if a team thinks Wynn stands a chance at playing tackle - otherwise I can see similar treatment than Forrest Lamp and Joel Bitonio got) or even a first center going in the round.  Let's not act like we aren't habitually surprised by the willingness of teams to reach year after year

[DoleINGout]

6 minutes ago, The LBC said:

I'm not denying that there's a chance that he falls out of the 1st, but that chance is no greater in the grand scheme of things than Mike Hughes falling out for similar inexperience (he too only has one year as a starter) or lack of ideal length, or Oliver's bad habit of allowing separation at the route-stem (just as Justin Gilbert's hitch in his hips in transition probably should have kept him out of the 1st and Trae Waynes' hip and footwork on short and intermediate stuff (coupled with his fondness for grabbing) stood a legitimate chance of keeping him out of the 1st.  I'm just looking at the teams picking from 18-on in the 1st round and the teams for whom a jump back into the bottom of the 1st from their early, early 2nd would be relatively inexpensive should a run on CB's start and the systems that those teams run - and there are more fits for Jackson and the strengths in his game than not, which leads me to believe it's more likely than not that he ends up finding a spot in the last 1/3 of the round.  A 5th or 6th CB getting into the 1st round is more likely, just with the way teams value particular positions, than a second guard (will really depend on if a team thinks Wynn stands a chance at playing tackle - otherwise I can see similar treatment than Forrest Lamp and Joel Bitonio got) or even a first center going in the round.  Let's not act like we aren't habitually surprised by the willingness of teams to reach year after year

The separation with Mike Hughes from Jackson is his long speed, as you called it. Hughes is a dynamic kick return/punt return with basically the same height and width at the combine, (I checked after your last post a little while ago). Hughes, unlike Josh Jackson, is also more well rounded in coverage; he isn't limited to a mostly zone scheme in the NFL. Both of these standout traits increases the odds that a team sees value in drafting Hughes over Jackson early. Trae Waynes and Justin Gilbert were both considered in those years to be first round guys. Josh Jackson is too, but much later in the first round closer to the start of the second. Same applies to Oliver. Their aren't many reaches this year. Oliver would be one. Jackson wouldn't be, but the value for him is really a second round player. Yes, there are some reaches every round every year. I don't see Jackson going in the first unless a team that doesn't have many roster needs can afford to spend their pick on adding a "playmaker" type.

[jrry32]

1 hour ago, DoleINGout said:

I don't see Jackson going in the first unless a team that doesn't have many roster needs can afford to spend their pick on adding a "playmaker" type.

Josh Jackson would excel in Pete Carroll's version of the 4-3 Under. Look at all the teams running it now: Seattle, Atlanta, Jacksonville, San Francisco, and San Diego. Then, you have schemes like those run by Ron Rivera, Sean McDermott, and Gregg Williams. Simply put, there will be a market for Josh Jackson in the first round. There's no guarantee he goes there, but I think there's a solid chance we see a run on corners between picks #20 and #32.

[Hawkeyejam]

I laugh at the unathletic Josh Jackson comments. He has ideal size. His 3 cone and short shuttle times were near the top of his position group. He had a 38" vertical. His film speaks for itself and his production last season was unmatched by anybody. Shoot even his first 40 got timed at 4.49u. I believe his 4.6 40 was after a false start as well. Plenty enough speed. Iowa has put out some solid secondary guys consistently over the years. Desmond King fell to the 5th round due to a "poor" 40 and he had a very productive rookie season. Best hands in the draft for CB, head on a swivel, and a huge ceiling. He came to Iowa as a WR. He's played CB for 2 years! Dude going to be a player where he goes