Draft Rumors

[jetskid007]

I think the Jets are trying to totally revamp the QB room and signing McCown/Teddy doesn’t preclude them from selecting a QB. It’s kind of like what PHI did in 2016 (sign Bradford, Daniel; draft Wentz) and  CHI last year (sign Glennon, Sanchez; draft Trubisky). 

At 6, there’s no guaranteeing the QB(s) they want will be there, and there’s also no guarantee they’ll find a trade partner to move up. I think this is a matter of just covering their bases. How bad would it look if they signed just McCown or just Teddy and missed on a QB? This at least gives them a fallback plan. 

[ninjapirate]

Duce Staley seems to be a big fan of Derrius Guice. 

[Zithers2]

Most reliable Panthers beat writer says

1. Panthers will skip on the free agent RB pool and probably draft someone to replace Jonathan Stewart.
2. Despite almost picking Hunter Henry and OJ Howard, team is probably now looking to sign a TE to replace Ed Dickson rather than draft a rookie.
3. Depending on what happens with FA Derek Anderson, team is probably going for a day 3 QB to develop as Cam's new backup.
4. Will probably continue adding to WR corps in draft.
5. Will probably target a safety in the draft.
6. Not interested in any LBs or DTs given the depth at both spots.

So for any mockers.... RB, WR, S, and QB seem like near-certainties.

[Oregon Ducks]

Springs will be a solid late round guy. He's good in coverage. Terrible hands, though.

Benoit has a chance to surprise some people.

[MikeT14]

Sounds to me like the Redskins are def going to take care of RB in the first two rounds., 

[Broncofan]

Sounds about right  - I doubt Chubb falls below 7, 6 seems more likely his floor.

 

 

[Iamcanadian]

On 3/15/2018 at 12:13 AM, The LBC said:

Sorry, but people are really making entirely too much of the Andrew Luck may never play again narrative.  You wouldn't have had two different head coaches take the job without hide nor hair of a leak that Luck's health was MASSIVELY worse than presently suspected.  Even if his shoulder were Chad Pennington'd at this point, he'd still be attempting to play with it (as Pennington did) and given that he's the face of the franchise, the team would give him the opportunity to try (and fail) before moving on.

As with all injuries, the doctors will make the call on whether Luck can play or not. The fact they traded out of #3 spot, strongly suggests the doctors have given a thumbs up on Luck and we will likely see him some time this season.

If he is his old self, Indy could win the Division, but if he needs time to get up to snuff, then maybe next year, we see the old Luck! I really hope he completely returns, because I absolutely hate it when an injury ends a career. 

[Iamcanadian]

On 3/12/2018 at 9:16 AM, Broncofan said:

 

I think once a team makes the playoffs, though - their ultimate goal is to be a legit SB contender.   FWIW, an owner in our league came up with a compelling argument to the philosophies you are both making - there is no magic formula anymore to SB contention/winning.

If you look at the discussion on FFGen and here, 4 themes come out as to what is the key to a legit championship contender/team:

1.  The franchise QB.  Can hide a lot more weaknesses on a team, and in the case of a mobile/elusive QB, can help the OL play up (and even a guy like Brady can move around enough to maximize his OL performance.   Russell Wilson, A-Rod, TB12, the list goes on.

2.   Trench strength.   Be powerful in the OL/DL, and you control the run game, eat clock, and on D, you negate the franchise QB by burying them with pressure.  Certainly, PHI was the most dominant team if you look at both OL/DL.  I'd argue that pretty much every elite SB QB also had a top 10 OL with them (even Wilson's OL was top 10 back then in the SB48 years, not so much now).  Even last year, you look at NE's OL, and they were a top 6 unit, and their DL is what keyed the comeback D-wise on ATL, getting pressure at key moments on Ryan and co.   Trey Flowers was a SB animal.   We didn't quite follow this to a T, but it's fair to say our run D was stellar, and CJ's run game behind our OL played great, except for RT.   Still, this applies more for PHI.

3.   Elite D.   Our formula, and you can very clearly make the argument that JAX followed this formula to a T - they were literally a 2H of bad coaching (more on that) away from the SB, they had the AFCG in their hands and let it slip away.  As great as Wilson was SEA’s elite D was the foundation of their earlier success.  They had both 1 and 3 and an OK line at their peak.      

4.  Great playoff coaching.   The anti-Andy Reid philosophy - play to win, and come up with innovate plans that make the difference.  This is what has set BB apart from the AFC competition - I'd point out JAX's refusal to do anything but run on 1st down with a dive in the 3rd/4th Q cost them the game - when they tried to sit on a 10 point lead.    I'd point out how great Pederson was in maximizing Foles' skills - becoming RPO driven, and those gutsy 4th down calls, when other coaches would have played to not lose.   When you have similarly talented teams, it makes a huge difference in the playoffs.

You look at the SB winning teams, it used to be people pointed only to the elite QB's.  But now, we look at the SB winner, and we also look at the top NFL teams this year - MIN, JAX, PHI post-Wentz, you can't say it's elite QB.   You also can't say it's elite D every time - but JAX now, and DEN in 2016, proved that you can do it.   But I'd also say that #4 is needed if you only have 1 of the first 3.   PHI won with #2 and #4 this year.   We won with #3 and #4 (remember that Phillips didn't go into a conservative game plan vs. NE / CAR, but attacked & attacked, no off-coverage zone, and it was a masterpiece).   I'd say MIN had #3 and #4 this year (Shurmur on O, and that elite D).   NE wins with #1 and #4, and sometimes, #2 - and because they have #1 and #4 all the time, they're perennial contenders.   

Point being, it's no longer a set formula.   Cap management means there are different ways to get an elite contender.   It sure helps when you have 3 of the 4 - that's what makes PHI scary, with Wentz back, they should have #1, #2 and #4 covered.   But it also explains why we're seeing different teams contend.   The other common element - finding value in the draft (and in NE's case, Brady uber-cheap helps them in giving them more leeway).    We still haven't broken past the highest-paid QB's winning the SB - that speaks to the need to have more than just #1 - you have to excel in the trenches, or have the great D.    But it helps to have the franchise QB for sure - just like being incredible in the trenches can overcome not having the elite QB.   

Food for thought, I thought the argument was compelling.  

I have to disagree, the NFL is a schedule/QB league, the schedule decides which Divisions will have a wild card team and which ones won't and the only way to beat those odds, is by having a solid franchise QB. The NFL schedule has been designed to ensure 4 to 6 new teams will make the playoffs every year and of course, injuries can help destroy a team's chances. 

Jacksonville had what could be labelled an injury win. Houston lost Watson and Luck never returned for Indy, eliminating 2 possible winners to the Division. This enabled both Jacksonville and Tennessee to have a simple path to the playoffs, but when push came to crunch, Jacksonville lacked the QB to get the final job done.

Minny main threat in their Division is Green Bay and we all saw what happened to them once Rodgers was removed from the equation. It gave Minny a clear path to the playoffs, but not the QB who could get them to the SB.

Philly lost its franchise QB, this is true, but Foles simply played like a franchise QB throughout the playoffs and carried Philly to a SB win.

Look at Minny, they went far, but that did not stop them from dumping the QB who got them there for a possible franchise QB in Cousins.

Nothing has changed, the NFL is and remains a schedule/QB league. Yes, no QB is immune from having a solid OL and no team is immune from having at least a decent defense, a QB cannot overcome everything, but when you get down to the playoffs, few teams are lacking a whole lot along their lines, but in the end QB play will decide the SB winner over 90% of the time and I think that is why every GM in the business is always looking for his next franchise QB.. 

[Broncofan]

7 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

I have to disagree, the NFL is a schedule/QB league, the schedule decides which Divisions will have a wild card team and which ones won't and the only way to beat those odds, is by having a solid franchise QB. The NFL schedule has been designed to ensure 4 to 6 new teams will make the playoffs every year and of course, injuries can help destroy a team's chances. 

Jacksonville had what could be labelled an injury win. Houston lost Watson and Luck never returned for Indy, eliminating 2 possible winners to the Division. This enabled both Jacksonville and Tennessee to have a simple path to the playoffs, but when push came to crunch, Jacksonville lacked the QB to get the final job done.

Minny main threat in their Division is Green Bay and we all saw what happened to them once Rodgers was removed from the equation. It gave Minny a clear path to the playoffs, but not the QB who could get them to the SB.

Philly lost its franchise QB, this is true, but Foles simply played like a franchise QB throughout the playoffs and carried Philly to a SB win.

Look at Minny, they went far, but that did not stop them from dumping the QB who got them there for a possible franchise QB in Cousins.

Nothing has changed, the NFL is and remains a schedule/QB league. Yes, no QB is immune from having a solid OL and no team is immune from having at least a decent defense, a QB cannot overcome everything, but when you get down to the playoffs, few teams are lacking a whole lot along their lines, but in the end QB play will decide the SB winner over 90% of the time and I think that is why every GM in the business is always looking for his next franchise QB.. 

GM's look for the franchise QB because he represents the easiest path to get to true contention.   The way the salary cap is constructed, the franchise QB, especially in his rookie contract (and in Rd1, the 5th year option), represents such a cap value relative to other positions, and the career longevity is so potentially great, that it allows the team to get better in the trenches, or get a near-elite D for an extended run (until you have to pay that QB the big bucks, then the decisions get harder).   Schedule certainly as an influence, but it doesn't explain the non-QB team's success.  DEN's 2015 SB path was with the 1st place schedule, SEA was the WC the year before in 2013 (while you can point to Wilson, the D drove that SB playoff run - and again, shows the part where you need at least 2 of the 4 elements listed above) .   BAL's 1998 D-driven win was from a 8-8 prior season, but I think we can recognize that was a historic D - winning with Trent Dilfer was an amazing feat.  It used to be called the one-off, but we're seeing more teams contend for the SB and win, without the franchise guy.  That's no coincidence, and certainly not just a function of schedules..  

Remember, my earlier statement isn't that a franchise QB isn't the path - it's just not the only path anymore.   And by himself the QB isn't enough.   Teams need at least 2 of the 4 elements.    Given we only have so many franchise QB's, it's no coincidence we have more models emerging, either.    Teams have to pick and choose how to build their teams, hitting on 4 components is so very difficult in this cap era.  MIN is doing their best to try and challenge the notion that you can't field a truly complete team with the cap limits placed on teams, with LAR close behind.   But that's by and large the issue - even the SB champs aren't top-to-bottom complete teams anymore with the cap.   DEN didn't have a good QB that year (and a very average OL, as our RT was a huge weakness).   NE's D's have been underrated, but exploitable (thanks to BB/Brady & his cheap contract, of course).   PHI's secondary was a major weakness that their front 7 hid.   And yet, our SB winners the last 3 years.   And beyond that, we see more contenders emerging with different ways of getting it done.

 The cheap rookie-deal QB who can play at a top-10 model is the easiest way to get the most complete team, for sure.  But failing that, alternate models of success are emerging.  And that's strictly a function of how the cap limits teams keeping their cores indefinitely.    The franchise QB is the most sustainable method, though.  And that's why it's what GM's shoot for.  But it's not the only model to use.

[goldfishwars]

Rumors around Roquan Smith failing medicals seem to be doing the rounds, but I can't find any more trustworthy news sources who have reported on it. 

 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, goldfishwars said:

Rumors around Roquan Smith failing medicals seem to be doing the rounds, but I can't find any more trustworthy news sources who have reported on it. 

 

We've been talking about this in the 49er forum for a bit because we also couldn't find it anywhere. 

Tony Pauline is the original source, stating that both Smith and Lorenzo Carter were red flagged by some teams at their medicals. Haven't heard it reported by really any other major outlets though (outside of Walter Football). You'd think that these things are the type of things that would make the rounds

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Rumors around Roquan Smith failing medicals seem to be doing the rounds, but I can't find any more trustworthy news sources who have reported on it. 

 

 

13 minutes ago, Forge said:

We've been talking about this in the 49er forum for a bit because we also couldn't find it anywhere. 

Tony Pauline is the original source, stating that both Smith and Lorenzo Carter were red flagged by some teams at their medicals. Haven't heard it reported by really any other major outlets though (outside of Walter Football). You'd think that these things are the type of things that would make the rounds

DAL could use ILB help and pick at 1.19 and suddenly Roquan Smith is failing medicals but nothing making rounds until now.

Hmm, seems like a coincidence.   Wonder who Pauline's source was (hint: His last name ends with Jones).

[Broncofan]

The decision to not throw at the Combine IMO was a mistake - it could really be magnified if Darnold doesn't impress on Wednesday.   He won't fall as far as Bridgewater did, but this could be reminiscent of that situation (remember Bridgewater tried to use a glove and it failed miserably in his Louisville workout, and he dropped like a rock).

 

[Forge]

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The decision to not throw at the Combine IMO was a mistake - it could really be magnified if Darnold doesn't impress on Wednesday.   He won't fall as far as Bridgewater did, but this could be reminiscent of that situation (remember Bridgewater tried to use a glove and it failed miserably in his Louisville workout, and he dropped like a rock).

 

Eh...I was actually in favor of him not throwing at the combine to be honest, if only because of the cracked out throwing motion. I thought putting him side by side against guys with far superior motion (especially Rosen) would not do him any favors and bring unnecessary attention to it. Everyone knows that the motion is unusual, but I didn't think that you would want to spotlight it like it may have been at the combine. It's one thing to watch Darnold throw and think that the motion is weird or something, it's different when you can directly compare and contrast right then and there, side by side. The motion doesn't need to be a topic of conversation, but I thought throwing at the combine may make it one. 

Obviously, the rain could certainly impact his throws, so that could end up turning sour for him, but I still don't think that not throwing was a complete mistake. 

[Bonanza23]

Yeah if he doesn’t complete more than 95.765% of his passes it’ll probably drop him down to the third round. 

Hashtag prodaysisseriousbusiness