Are special teams undervalued?

[11sanchez11]

So underrated they are now overrated. 

[JAF-N72EX]

8 hours ago, Darth Pees said:

Look at how good Baltimore's ST's unit was last year: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst

We were 4%(!!!!) better than the 2nd place team, and yet it really made no difference. So no, I don't think ST's are undervalued.

Let's see; 7th most in FG's, 7th most in XP's, 8th in punt return yards, 5th in yards per punt, 5th in Kick return yards, 1st in yards per kick return, were  one of the only two teams to have both a punt and kick return for a TD and were only one game away from the playoffs with one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

I'd say it made a huge difference!

[Nabbs4u]

45 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said:

9 hours ago, Darth Pees said:

Look at how good Baltimore's ST's unit was last year: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst

We were 4%(!!!!) better than the 2nd place team, and yet it really made no difference. So no, I don't think ST's are undervalued.

Let's see; 7th most in FG's, 7th most in XP's, 8th in punt return yards, 5th in yards per punt, 5th in Kick return yards, 1st in yards per kick return, were  one of the only two teams to have both a punt and kick return for a TD and were only one game away from the playoffs with one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

I'd say it made a huge difference!

Exactly! 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 hour ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Let's see; 7th most in FG's, 7th most in XP's, 8th in punt return yards, 5th in yards per punt, 5th in Kick return yards, 1st in yards per kick return, were  one of the only two teams to have both a punt and kick return for a TD and were only one game away from the playoffs with one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

I'd say it made a huge difference!

We lost the game where our ST's had arguably the greatest impact (Chicago). Despite having by far the best ST's unit in the league, it not only didn't help our offense play better (field position), but it didn't lead to more wins, either.

[JAF-N72EX]

5 minutes ago, Darth Pees said:

We lost the game where our ST's had arguably the greatest impact (Chicago). Despite having by far the best ST's unit in the league, it not only didn't help our offense play better (field position), but it didn't lead to more wins, either.

So you're going to ignore this play that occurred within scoring range during a close game? If it weren't for ST's, the Ravens would've been blown out.

 

[Iamcanadian]

Special teams are drawn from UDFA's, 5th, 6th and 7th round picks for most teams except maybe for the punter or FG kicker who might get picked as high as round 3. Besides providing the  majority of players for ST's, they also serve to develop a starter or 2 down the road if your GM and scouts are solid appraisers of talent.

ST's also serve to minimize salaries, so teams can remain within the salary cap. Are ST's important, obviously they are as the FG kicker can win a lot of games for a team and the punter can win the battle of field position and keep opponents at bay, by making them have to go further to score and of course, there is the odd return for aTD as well as a long return to set up a shorter distance to score.

Hence teams work extremely hard on their ST's and they can win at least a few games for the successful ones.

[Huelon]

On 3/30/2018 at 9:46 PM, patriotsheatyan said:

It seems like Special Teams are rarely discussed when looking at matchups or projecting wins and loses. Teams also just don’t seem to value them, rarely spending much time or effort acquiring them, even though Special Teams players are typically cheap. This is strange, given how many games come down to a bad kicker missing, the odds of scoring when starting out deep in your own territory, or just how big a botched snap or return TD is.

It also seems like teams that value Special Teams are usually among the most competitive. 

If I was a GM, I would prioritize STs to a degree, given that a corps of elite STers costs no more than if not less than an elite corps at most position groups.

Thoughts?

If a team could win the turnover.penalties battle and had superior ST they could be a force without a great offense or defense.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

13 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

So you're going to ignore this play that occurred within scoring range during a close game? If it weren't for ST's, the Ravens would've been blown out.

Rrrrright..........because that's how this works. You change one thing and everything else stays the same.

[wackywabbit]

2 hours ago, Darth Pees said:

Rrrrright..........because that's how this works. You change one thing and everything else stays the same.

I shouldn't be surprised that you disputed the post that you quoted. But, I still am. 

Special teams has been huge for Baltimore. Upgrading at kicker and returner was one of the biggest keys to getting over the hump.

[wackywabbit]

16 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

So you're going to ignore this play that occurred within scoring range during a close game? If it weren't for ST's, the Ravens would've been blown out.

Man, don't get me started. Half of Ravens fans in the team forum will tell you the defense was the reason we lost that game. Because reasons...

[dtait93]

Having the best punter in the league in Brett Kern is definitely not something we undervalue.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 hour ago, wackywabbit said:

I shouldn't be surprised that you disputed the post that you quoted. But, I still am. 

Special teams has been huge for Baltimore. Upgrading at kicker and returner was one of the biggest keys to getting over the hump.

And yet, every season since we've had amazing ST's and still been irrelevant in the NFL. It's not that big of a difference. There is value there, but it's not much. Even the best ST's unit doesn't do very much for your team when one of the main phases is garbage. Basically, ST's relies on those two phases to make a difference, not the other way around.

[Jakuvious]

21 hours ago, Darth Pees said:

We lost the game where our ST's had arguably the greatest impact (Chicago). Despite having by far the best ST's unit in the league, it not only didn't help our offense play better (field position), but it didn't lead to more wins, either.

I'll be honest, I'm no expert in the 2017 Ravens, but looking at it from a statistical perspective, it probably really did. The Ravens offense was 27th in yards, last in yards per play, but 9th in scoring. The turnover differential will be a part of that, but so will the starting field position and phenomenal kicker. Is it going to directly make your offense play better? No, it still looked bad for the most part. But I think it's pretty safe to say it played a part.

[Jakuvious]

On 3/30/2018 at 11:46 PM, patriotsheatyan said:

It seems like Special Teams are rarely discussed when looking at matchups or projecting wins and loses. Teams also just don’t seem to value them, rarely spending much time or effort acquiring them, even though Special Teams players are typically cheap. This is strange, given how many games come down to a bad kicker missing, the odds of scoring when starting out deep in your own territory, or just how big a botched snap or return TD is.

It also seems like teams that value Special Teams are usually among the most competitive. 

If I was a GM, I would prioritize STs to a degree, given that a corps of elite STers costs no more than if not less than an elite corps at most position groups.

Thoughts?

Part of the problem with investing heavily in special teams is the roster limit. You can only have 46 active players on gameday. That leaves you more or less one backup for every player, with the positions less needing of one (OL backups can flex around, don't need two FBs, etc.) going to increase depth at positions with a higher overall snap count like WR or CB. So when you're signing those low end roster players, you have to balance both roles, special teams, and backing up the primary guys on O and D. And you're technically right, when you say special teams players are typically cheap. But special teams players are typically cheap not because no one values special teams, but because special teams players are generally either on rookie contracts, or they're bad at the primary job on offense or defense. If you have a great special teamer who is also even decent on offense or defense, they're not cheap. They get paid like a decent player on O or D who adds a little extra value. This is where we see guys like Sproles getting $3M - $4M per year. Or Cordarrelle Patterson. Now, if you have a great special teamer who is also great on offense or defense, you just gradually take them off special teams. The problem you get to there, is guys need a breather at that level, so putting them on both can wear them down. Eric Berry was an excellent gunner on kickoffs, Ed Reed was a great do it all kind of player, Steve Smith got his start as a return man, etc. But you then have to prioritize those guys snaps, and special teams IS less important, comparatively, even if it is important.

So you see the dilemma here. You can't have too many guys on roster that are great at ST but useless on O or D. A team can stand one or two of those, a Matt Slater, an Eric Weems, etc., but not many of them. If they're great at ST and good on O or D, then they are expensive, so you can only afford so many of those. If they're great at both, they'll get pulled to the thing that's more important over time. So you're not going to have a team go out and sign an elite special teams unit. It isn't practical roster building. This is why we get special teams units loaded with young players on rookie contracts. They're cheap, they have a reason for claiming a roster spot (potential if they're still bad, or just talent if they're starting to impact O or D), and they're typically talented and coachable.

So teams leave it up to coaching to actually turn the unit into something. Works great if you have good coaching, works terribly if you don't. Belichek has always had excellent special teams regardless of the players, much of the Andy Reid coaching tree always does, etc. And there are great special teams coordinators themselves in Toub, Fassel, Fipp, etc. Hard to say how much Rosburg is responsible for Baltimore's, seeing as Harbaugh was a former ST coordinator. I would argue that that is the path to great special teams performance. Invest in the coach, because you can't really invest in the players long term.

[wackywabbit]

2015-2017 special teams dvoa vs wins

 

Slope	26.61 ± 7.892
Y-intercept	7.977 ± 0.3022
X-intercept	-0.2998
1/Slope	0.03758
95% Confidence Intervals
Slope	10.92 to 42.31
Y-intercept	7.376 to 8.578
X-intercept	-0.7324 to -0.1871
Goodness of Fit
R square	0.1079
Sy.x	2.961
Is slope significantly non-zero?
F	11.37
DFn,DFd	1,94
P Value	0.0011
Deviation from horizontal?	Significant
Data
Number of XY pairs	96
Equation	Y = 26.61*X + 7.977

 

... so yea, it correlates pretty well with wins on low, middle and high ranges.