Huge interest in Derrius Guice

[Eric]

https://redskinswire.usatoday.com/2018/04/14/redskins-huge-interest-lsu-derrius-guice/

 

Theres alot of smoke screens thrown out as the draft approches but if your going to have multiple visits with a prospect thats "a whole lotta smoke". I believe the interest in Guice to be more than just doing your homework. I believe they are dead set on taking him and doing it at 13. I also think at one time they were enamored with Ronald Jones but must have gotten turned off of that notion recently for some reason unknown.

I like Guice alot but if we pass on Vea or Fitzpatrick if available Im going to really have some mixed feeling on this one. We get a good player by passing on a great one. Which way would you guys lean if a decision like that is made?

[HTTRDynasty]

Question:  When is the last time a team won a SB with a RB they drafted in the 1st round?

[turtle28]

38 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Question:  When is the last time a team won a SB with a RB they drafted in the 1st round?

I think the better question is how many 1st round RBs have won a Super Bowl in the last 20 years. Does it really matter if the team that drafted them did or not?

Marshall Falk

Jerome Bettis

Joseph Addai 

Rashad Mendenhall 

Marshawn Lynch 

[turtle28]

43 minutes ago, Eric said:

https://redskinswire.usatoday.com/2018/04/14/redskins-huge-interest-lsu-derrius-guice/

 

Theres alot of smoke screens thrown out as the draft approches but if your going to have multiple visits with a prospect thats "a whole lotta smoke". I believe the interest in Guice to be more than just doing your homework. I believe they are dead set on taking him and doing it at 13. I also think at one time they were enamored with Ronald Jones but must have gotten turned off of that notion recently for some reason unknown.

I like Guice alot but if we pass on Vea or Fitzpatrick if available Im going to really have some mixed feeling on this one. We get a good player by passing on a great one. Which way would you guys lean if a decision like that is made?

I’ll have mixed feelings as well, but if Guice goes out and gets over 1000 yds and 10 TDs, I will have forgotten about it by this time next year. Kind of like with Scherff. He wasn’t who I would’ve picked but you can’t argue that Scherff wasn’t a good pick.

[Woz]

10 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I think the better question is how many 1st round RBs have won a Super Bowl in the last 20 years. Does it really matter if the team that drafted them did or not?

Marshall Falk

Jerome Bettis

Joseph Addai 

Rashad Mendenhall 

Marshawn Lynch 

Jamal Lewis was a rookie on the 2000 Ravens.

[turtle28]

3 minutes ago, Woz said:

Jamal Lewis was a rookie on the 2000 Ravens.

Yeah, him too. That’s 6 RBs and 5 of the 6 were main parts of their teams offenses.

[HTTRDynasty]

52 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I think the better question is how many 1st round RBs have won a Super Bowl in the last 20 years. Does it really matter if the team that drafted them did or not?

Marshall Falk

Jerome Bettis

Joseph Addai 

Rashad Mendenhall 

Marshawn Lynch 

Yes, it does matter.  

I love Guice, but my main issue with the pick is the fact that we would be getting terrible relative value over the next 5 years.

For example, Zeke and Jalen Ramsey are both top 5 players at their position.  Based on talent alone, you could argue that either Zeke (ignoring the off-the-field stuff) or Ramsey was the right pick for the Cowboys at #4 in 2016.  That there was no wrong pick.  However, that extremely underrates the value you get from having Ramsey under contract for 5 years vs. having Zeke under contract for 5 years:

Zeke is the 7th highest paid RB in the league.  That is okay value for a top 5 back.

Ramsey is the 30th highest paid CB in the league. That is unbelievable value for a top 5 CB.  It's a huge reason the Jags are able to pay Calais Campbell, AJ Bouye, and the other studs on that defense so much going forward.  That is the kind of value that leads to winning Superbowls.  Just ask the 2013 Seahawks.  IMO, the Jags hurt themselves last year by drafting Fournette (who is the 5th highest paid RB btw) at 4 rather than just drafting Deshaun Watson or Mahomes in the 1st and drafting a RB like Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Dalvin Cook, or Joe Mixon later in the draft.  They'd be SB favorites this year.

 

RB is the one position where it's better to get a guy in FA on his second contract than it is to get in the 1st round of the draft.  That is because you probably end up paying less for the FA over the life of the contract than you do a first round draft pick.  RB is pretty much the only position where that is the case.  So that's why, yes, it does matter how I originally phrased my question.  It's not about how many 1st round RBs have won a SB in the last 20 years.  It's about if they won the SB with the team that drafted them and wasted the relative value they would have gotten at a more important position on a 1st round RB.  If you can't find a FA RB, then you're better off drafting one on Day 2.  It's all about value when trying to build a consistent SB contender under the salary cap.

Believe me, I'm tempted to take Guice at 13 too, if only because of the lack of faith I have in the FO to find a premier talent in a later round.  But if the goal is a Superbowl, and it better be or else why the hell do we even root for this team, then you have to really be cognizant of salary cap management and the relative value between players.  Give me a Jalen Ramsey or a Joey Bosa over Zeke any day.  Or give me a Marshon Lattimore, Deshaun Watson, or Jonathan Allen over Leonard Fournette.  Or, in this case, a Ward, Fitzpatrick, James, or Vea over Guice.  Not because they are more talented than Guice, but because of the relative value in their positions that allows you to spend more money on studs in FA, or gives you the ability to re-sign your own FAs.  Again, this is how I would manage a team if the goal is to win a Superbowl.  With the Redskins, I have a hard time believing that is their goal, so I have resigned myself to being disappointed.

[HTTRDynasty]

By the way, I'm talking about since the rookie wage scale went into effect, which is what matters now.

[lavar703]

1 hour ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Question:  When is the last time a team won a SB with a RB they drafted in the 1st round?

This is ridiculous. You could literally go through every position and do this. 

[Woz]

51 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Yeah, him too. That’s 6 RBs and 5 of the 6 were main parts of their teams offenses.

Out of what 100 odd first round RBs ? Not good return on investment.

[lavar703]

1 hour ago, Eric said:

https://redskinswire.usatoday.com/2018/04/14/redskins-huge-interest-lsu-derrius-guice/

 

Theres alot of smoke screens thrown out as the draft approches but if your going to have multiple visits with a prospect thats "a whole lotta smoke". I believe the interest in Guice to be more than just doing your homework. I believe they are dead set on taking him and doing it at 13. I also think at one time they were enamored with Ronald Jones but must have gotten turned off of that notion recently for some reason unknown.

I like Guice alot but if we pass on Vea or Fitzpatrick if available Im going to really have some mixed feeling on this one. We get a good player by passing on a great one. Which way would you guys lean if a decision like that is made?

I still say he’s going to be the pick. They won’t risk losing him by trading back. 

[lavar703]

1 minute ago, Woz said:

Out of what 100 odd first round RBs ? Not good return on investment.

How many Super Bowls were won by teams that spent a top 5 pick on a guard?

[Woz]

Since it has only happened once (twice maybe?) in the free agency era, none. That was a risky pick, but even without the SB win, Scherff has provided value relative to his selection. Most RBs walk after their rookie contract expires because a younger, cheaper replacement can be more easily found than at other positions.

Keep in mind that with the new, no leading with the helmet rule RBs are going to have to adjust their styles. That could make them even less valuable in the short term as they have to relearn how to play or get hurt more often by running upright.

[e16bball]

42 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I think the better question is how many 1st round RBs have won a Super Bowl in the last 20 years. Does it really matter if the team that drafted them did or not?

Marshall Falk

Jerome Bettis

Joseph Addai 

Rashad Mendenhall 

Marshawn Lynch 

Yeah, it kinda does matter if the team drafted the player. Because for the team who originally drafted him, that’s one less 1st round draft pick they could use to build the rest of the roster. 

The Rams got Faulk for a 2nd rounder, the Steelers got Bettis for almost nothing, and the Seahawks got Lynch for literally nothing (but money). So compared to a team who burned a 1st round pick to get a RB, they had their RB plus a 1st round pick. They didn’t burn their most valuable draft capital on a RB.

 

As for the other two, I guess technically the Steelers did win a SB with Mendenhall. It was his rookie year and he was only active in 4 games, getting 19 total carries before breaking his shoulder. They won the SB with a RB group of (Fast) Willie Parker, (Waltzing) Mewelde Moore, and Gary Russell. All of whom, incidentally, they gave up basically nothing for.

They haven’t won the Super Bowl since, and they plummeted a couple years after taking Mendenhall (as did he). One wonders if they might have been better off taking a non-RB player like Duane Brown, Brandon Flowers, Jordy Nelson, Mike Jenkins, or Kenny Phillips (all of whom went in the next 12 picks) and waiting to take an RB who was available later, like Matt Forte, Ray Rice, or Jamaal Charles (all of whom went in the mid-2nd to 3rd round of that same draft).

Addai is an interesting case. They took him at the very tail end of the 1st round, so it’s not a great comparison to a #13 pick. Unlike Mendenhall, he did play a major role in them winning the SB. But they also only got two decent seasons out of him before he fell off the cliff. So I dunno...I guess they got what they wanted out of him, but I’m not sure that’s what the Redskins would be looking for (a quick peak with a very early dropoff).

[Woz]

3 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Addai is an interesting case. They took him at the very tail end of the 1st round, so it’s not a great comparison to a #13 pick. Unlike Mendenhall, he did play a major role in them winning the SB. But they also only got two decent seasons out of him before he fell off the cliff. So I dunno...I guess they got what they wanted out of him, but I’m not sure that’s what the Redskins would be looking for (a quick peak with a very early dropoff).

Jamal Lewis was valuable for the Ravens as a rookie during their SB year. And he held up relatively well for his rookie contract, but even so, was he worth 5th overall?