Huge interest in Derrius Guice

[aceinthehouse]

No way in the world, would I select Guice @ 13. I understand he's a very good player, but not only is his projection quite a bit lower, but there are other very good RB's with even better value in the 2nd rd.

Now, would I trade down to say 20 & pick Guice?

While netting a 2nd rd pick?

Or a 3rd & some change? Absolutely

Imo, taking Guice @13 is doing the one thing you never do in the draft.

"Reaching for a pick"

[turtle28]

29 minutes ago, aceinthehouse said:

No way in the world, would I select Guice @ 13. I understand he's a very good player, but not only is his projection quite a bit lower, but there are other very good RB's with even better value in the 2nd rd.

Now, would I trade down to say 20 & pick Guice?

While netting a 2nd rd pick?

Or a 3rd & some change? Absolutely

Imo, taking Guice @13 is doing the one thing you never do in the draft.

"Reaching for a pick"

True, but Guice is better than the RBs that may be available in round 2.

Don’t lose sight of that fact that Guice is the second best RB in this draft just because in round 2 Michel, Chubb and others are available.

[e16bball]

The truth of the matter is that recent draft history has been tremendously unkind to teams that use 1st round picks on RBs who aren’t considered super-elite talents and slip into the double digits range. 

From 2006-2016:

Laurence Maroney

Joseph Addai

Marshawn Lynch

Deangelo Williams

Jonathan Stewart

Rashard Mendenhall

Felix Jones

Chris Johnson

Knowshon Moreno

Donald Brown

Beanie Wells

Jahvid Best

Mark Ingram

Doug Martin

David Wilson

Melvin Gordon

 

There are some solid players on that list, but about half were huge disappointments. And the really remarkable thing is that one of the two true stars among that group didn't become a star until he left the team who drafted him.

You could probably do something similar with lots of positions. But the key difference between RB and other positions is that you can pretty reliably find quality RBs in the 2nd and 3rd round range. So why force a pick on an RB in the middle of the 1st round when you can probably find a player with a similar likelihood of success a round or two later? And why lock yourself into a longer and more expensive contract (with the whole 5th year option thing) on players whose careers/primes are generally much shorter than at any other position? 

The teams in the league have clearly started to recognize this — just think about how few RBs we’ve seen drafted between 11 and 32 over the last 5 years or so. The logic is clear: take a consensus super-stud if he’s there and you could use him; otherwise, wait it out. Take a high-end guy at a different position, then grab a guy from the pool of still-very-talented RBs that will be available in the 2nd or early 3rd.

And I mean look, if they take Guice, I’ll get on board and root for him to be a star. I think he’s probably the most likely pick. I just hope they’ll at least trade down a bit before taking him. 

 

 

 

 

[turtle28]

Jeez, sorry I answered a question that HTTR couldn’t think of the answer to.

The Redskins just need to take BPA in a position they need, most likely that won’t be running back and the only way we’d take Guice is if we traded back.

But, not for one second am I going to be upset if we selected him and he comes in year 1 and has over 1000 yds and near or over 10 TDs.

Scherff is getting paid highly for a guard too - more than Guice would as a RB and Scherff plays a less important position - and will have to be the highest paid guard in the NFL if we want to keep him, and I’m happy with the pick because he’s been great since we drafted him.

Sure, we could take a RB later and they could end up being just as good, or we could take the next Perine or Matt Jones while Guice could be closer to a Barkley, Gurley & Zeke type back. 

[HTTRDynasty]

18 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Jeez, sorry I answered a question that HTTR couldn’t think of the answer to.

Actually, no, you never answered my actual question and just ignored my lengthy response. 

[turtle28]

3 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Actually, no, you never answered my actual question and just ignored my lengthy response. 

I clearly answered your original question.

[HTTRDynasty]

4 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I clearly answered your original question.

Where?

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, Woz said:

Jamal Lewis was valuable for the Ravens as a rookie during their SB year. And he held up relatively well for his rookie contract, but even so, was he worth 5th overall?

I think they would look back and consider it a good pick. But that may be due in large part to the fact that the early 2000s Ravens were a different animal than pretty much any team in the league today.

Maybe Jacksonville would be comparable, in terms of having a great defense and limited offensive weapons, and trying to grind out the clock and keep the score down. I think clearly the Jags are following in the Ravens’ footsteps, whether it’s intentional or not. Which helps to explain why they pulled the trigger on a Jamal clone like Fournette, even in the top 5. For a team like that, landing a big mauling workhorse who you can give 300-350 carries and make the focal point of your offense is probably worth even that huge investment. That’s probably not gonna be the Redskins any time soon, though.

But honestly I’m okay with taking backs like that who are widely considered truly transcendent talents and potential franchise changers, even in the top 10. Same as I am with a guard or a safety or a tight end or an inside linebacker or any lower priority position. There just aren’t many of those guys on the planet, and if I’m picking from the “best of the rest,” I’d rather wait it out.  

 

[Eric]

I would rather take a different position in the first round but won't be upset about it. There's a lot of players that come out every year " can't miss guys" that bust or don't pan out. I just hope whoever we get is a contributor.

For every Brandon Scherff, there's a Robert Gallery. For every Julio Jones, there's a Mike Williams. For every Peyton manning there's a Ryan Leaf. It is a crap shoot in the end, just hope we can stay away from the crap

[lavar703]

28 minutes ago, Eric said:

I would rather take a different position in the first round but won't be upset about it. There's a lot of players that come out every year " can't miss guys" that bust or don't pan out. I just hope whoever we get is a contributor.

For every Brandon Scherff, there's a Robert Gallery. For every Julio Jones, there's a Mike Williams. For every Peyton manning there's a Ryan Leaf. It is a crap shoot in the end, just hope we can stay away from the crap

I think draft value is more for draft nerds and football fans. Teams draft who they want and they don't consider it a reach the same way we do. Seattle was hammered for taking Bruce Irvin, who wasn't considered a first round talent. The Cowboys were literally made fun of by everyone for taking Travis Frederick. Every year McShay and Kiper claim to know more than the guys coaching and building these teams and for the most part they are wrong. If the team loves Guice they will take him at 13 and they won't care about WalterFootballs draft grade. Walter is still the guy who claimed Jimmy Clausen would be a pro bowler and Trent Williams would be out of the league in three years and was the worst pick of the 2010 draft. For all the crap this team gets and I certainly give them my fair share, they have done surprisingly well in the first round. I do have faith in them nailing the pick whether that be Payne, Vea, Guice or whomever.

[Ghostnote]

To be honest, it all depends on who is on the board. 

Right now, if Vea or Payne are on the board and we dont take one of them, or trade back to grab Guice and then potentially Tim Settle in the 2nd, then it becomes a value chase. 

I really love Payne, but Vea works too. Ideally, Vea and a 2nd round back not named Freeman. I like Chubb, Michel, RoJo. 

 

[Ghostnote]

29 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

I think draft value is more for draft nerds and football fans. Teams draft who they want and they don't consider it a reach the same way we do. Seattle was hammered for taking Bruce Irvin, who wasn't considered a first round talent. The Cowboys were literally made fun of by everyone for taking Travis Frederick. Every year McShay and Kiper claim to know more than the guys coaching and building these teams and for the most part they are wrong. If the team loves Guice they will take him at 13 and they won't care about WalterFootballs draft grade. Walter is still the guy who claimed Jimmy Clausen would be a pro bowler and Trent Williams would be out of the league in three years and was the worst pick of the 2010 draft. For all the crap this team gets and I certainly give them my fair share, they have done surprisingly well in the first round. I do have faith in them nailing the pick whether that be Payne, Vea, Guice or whomever.

Agree. Every team has a different grade on every player than every other team. Some guys don't fit the scheme and therefore are not on the radar. Some guys are just not physically what the team is looking for, so they are not on the radar. Teams like the Patriots may value a guy like Kyle Lauletta in the first round at 31 as opposed to say the Chargers who may value him in the 4th. 

 

[turtle28]

3 hours ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Where?

I listed 5 running backs who were 1st round picks that won a super bowl since 99, then Woz listed one I forgot with Jamal Lewis. If you really want to get technical the last one which won and was drafted by his team was Rashard Mendenhall in 08, then, he went the next year and the Steelers lost. Marshall Falk went twice, won 1& Lost 1. Lynch went twice and won once & lost once bc Carrol didn’t give him the ball on 3rd and 1 at the goal line.

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, mike23md said:

To be honest, it all depends on who is on the board. 

Right now, if Vea or Payne are on the board and we dont take one of them, or trade back to grab Guice and then potentially Tim Settle in the 2nd, then it becomes a value chase. 

I really love Payne, but Vea works too. Ideally, Vea and a 2nd round back not named Freeman. I like Chubb, Michel, RoJo. 

 

Boom! Thread!

[turtle28]

2 hours ago, e16bball said:

I think they would look back and consider it a good pick. But that may be due in large part to the fact that the early 2000s Ravens were a different animal than pretty much any team in the league today.

Maybe Jacksonville would be comparable, in terms of having a great defense and limited offensive weapons, and trying to grind out the clock and keep the score down. I think clearly the Jags are following in the Ravens’ footsteps, whether it’s intentional or not. Which helps to explain why they pulled the trigger on a Jamal clone like Fournette, even in the top 5. For a team like that, landing a big mauling workhorse who you can give 300-350 carries and make the focal point of your offense is probably worth even that huge investment. That’s probably not gonna be the Redskins any time soon, though.

But honestly I’m okay with taking backs like that who are widely considered truly transcendent talents and potential franchise changers, even in the top 10. Same as I am with a guard or a safety or a tight end or an inside linebacker or any lower priority position. There just aren’t many of those guys on the planet, and if I’m picking from the “best of the rest,” I’d rather wait it out.  

 

The Ravens have a Super Bowl and 2000 yards to realize Jamaal Lewis was a great draft pick.

When I went to Towson he was at the mall there’s signing autographs one day, always seemed like a good guy. I still can’t believe he got caught up on that drug charge after he retired, that shocked me bc he always seemed so humble and nice.

As for today’s game, the Titans, Jags and Cowboys are run first teams like the Ravens, Steelers, Titans, Redskins and others back then.

Definitely more pass first teams than 15 years ago though.