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Vikings select...Mike Hughes, CB, UCF


SemperFeist

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I think lost a bit  in the shuffle beyond the fact that when they were OTC, they didn't get called about trades, is that Hughes actually has the talent to be drafted in the 1st round. We act like it's horrible to not have gotten an OG/OL there, but Hughes gives us depth at CB, gives up flexibility at CB, and gives us a ton of talent in the secondary which doesn't hurt at all in the NFL right now with the insane amounts of passing that happen. Would have been getting more OL help been great, sure, but getting more DB help is also very important in terms of success. So I can't be mad that we improved DB depth when the OL depth that they liked wasn't available.

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6 minutes ago, The Gnat said:

I think lost a bit  in the shuffle beyond the fact that when they were OTC, they didn't get called about trades, is that Hughes actually has the talent to be drafted in the 1st round. We act like it's horrible to not have gotten an OG/OL there, but Hughes gives us depth at CB, gives up flexibility at CB, and gives us a ton of talent in the secondary which doesn't hurt at all in the NFL right now with the insane amounts of passing that happen. Would have been getting more OL help been great, sure, but getting more DB help is also very important in terms of success. So I can't be mad that we improved DB depth when the OL depth that they liked wasn't available.

BPA over need. Let's remember this for the 2019 draft when fans call for BPA.

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41 minutes ago, vikingsrule said:

BPA over need. Let's remember this for the 2019 draft when fans call for BPA.

Need is factored in when you have players in the same rating tier.  Clearly, Hughes was in a higher tier than the options on the OL available at the time, so the need comparison between those options was not a factor.  The need for a CB (Hughes in this case) was higher than those other players in the same tier as Hughes (which may have only been Lamar Jackson).

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7 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

To quote a FF great, “everyone says to draft BPA, until their team drafts BPA.”

I think drafting BPA is great for those few teams that don't have a glaring need.  Again, was CB REALLY a need?  No.  Was he the best player at our draft position.  Possibly.  Thus, he's a luxury pick that won't really make a huge difference in the defensive backfield.  Maybe he will do great things on special teams...but that's not why the Vikings drafted him...or, I hope that's not the reason that they drafted him.

Look, I like Hughs.  I think eventually he will be a starting CB.  I doubt he will be a starter in 2018.  My question is, could we have done something with the number 30 pick that would've helped the glaring weakness on the team and given the OL a possible starter day one?  I know Spielman thought that somebody they targeted would've been there to be picked in the 2nd round.  My question, why take that chance?

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29 minutes ago, Virginia Viking said:

drafting BPA is great for those few teams that don't have a glaring need

Exactly this ^^

Free agency should be used so that the team is never going into the draft with such a glaring need in order to allow them to hold closer to BPA.

The Vikings organizational approach throughout the draft wasn't pure BPA anyway. The Vikings were looking for the best offensive linemen available in the second round. Pure BPA is never realistic. There are factors that need to be considered. This isn't fantasy football where you are building your entire team in one draft. Pure BPA is better in a redraft league but even in redraft leagues the deeper you get into a draft with more of a team constructed needs have to be increasingly factored in.

Late Add from vikings.com to substantiate claim the Vikings were looking for the best offensive linemen available in the second round, not BPA:

Quote

 

Q: Was there any preference of taking a guard or tackle or just best player?

A: It was really the best offensive lineman. We feel like with the guys that we have, we have some versatility to be able to just take the best guy there. That’s what we did.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Virginia Viking said:

Again, was CB REALLY a need?  No. 

There weren’t many draft sites that didn’t have CB listed as a need heading into the draft. John Dorsey was just on NFL Radio and asked about his pick of Ward over Chubb, and part of his response was that you need 5 cornerbacks who you can trust to play. We’ve seen Zimmer use a mild rotation at CB to help keep guys fresh, and we’ve seen our CBs get dinged up and taken out of games. So, yes, CB was a need. Not only to help in the rotation presently, but to help keep the defensive backfield a top unit in the future. 

Was CB the Vikings biggest need heading into the draft? Most likely, no. But it was a need. And when the best player on your board fills a need, why wouldn’t you take him?

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1 hour ago, SemperFeist said:

There weren’t many draft sites that didn’t have CB listed as a need heading into the draft. John Dorsey was just on NFL Radio and asked about his pick of Ward over Chubb, and part of his response was that you need 5 cornerbacks who you can trust to play. We’ve seen Zimmer use a mild rotation at CB to help keep guys fresh, and we’ve seen our CBs get dinged up and taken out of games. So, yes, CB was a need. Not only to help in the rotation presently, but to help keep the defensive backfield a top unit in the future. 

Was CB the Vikings biggest need heading into the draft? Most likely, no. But it was a need. And when the best player on your board fills a need, why wouldn’t you take him?

CB was definitely a top 3 need going into the draft. Using a first round pick is justified for a top 3 need. Especially if that need is BPA.

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1 hour ago, SemperFeist said:

And when the best player on your board fills a need, why wouldn’t you take him?

When that player is not the player that most increases your chances of winning. We need to keep our eye on the prize. The goal is to win.

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38 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

When that player is not the player that most increases your chances of winning. We need to keep our eye on the prize. The goal is to win.

The people who get paid to, and make careers out of making these decisions apparently felt that Hughes increased our chances of winning more than whatever O-lineman they would have taken with that pick. Especially since we need a kick returner and an explosive punt returner.

None of us are privy to the Vikings draft board. How do we know that all of the Offensive Linemen that were on the board at #30 weren't ranked as late 2nd or 3rd round prospects by the team? 

How do we know that Hughes wasn't ranked as a top 10 player on our board?

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20 minutes ago, vikingsrule said:

What player at 30 fits this criteria?

That depends on how you rate the players available in the draft as well as the players currently on the Vikings roster. @rpmwr19's aggregate board is as good a place for you to start as any. It is an easy way to get a broad view of opinions. From there, I like Draft Breakdown. Using the aggregate board you can find the top few at each position that were available then watch the videos on draft breakdown.

Hope that helps you find the information that you are seeking.

If you want my opinion, Hernandez is the guy that I would have picked. Depending on your evaluations you might like one of the others better. The difference between the lesser of Easton and Remmers (or Compton if you think Hill shouldn't start at RT as I do) is far greater than the difference between Trae Waynes and Hughes. In fact, there is a good chance that Hughes will not pass Waynes on the depth chart. Ergo, Hughes wasn't an upgrade at all.

You need to get into nickel packages to find where Hughes might be an upgrade. These are used increasingly but starting guards still take 100% of the snaps. Nickel CBs still only take 60% - 70% of the snaps on defense. It seems likely that Newman and Alexander will get the lion's share of those nickel snaps. As a point of reference, look at how much Waynes played in his first year. Waynes was drafted even higher into a team with a weaker CB group and got 18% of the snaps his rookie year. The team shouldn't be expecting Hughes to take more than 18% of the snaps. And in those 18% the relative upgrade between him and the alternative might not even be a positive number. If it is, it is likely modest.

I would expect Hernandez to take as close to 100% of the snaps as his health would allow and the relative difference between him and the alternative to be significantly positive towards Hernandez.

Now, many don't like the scheme fit between Hernandez and the Vikings. So like I said, look into the alternatives and see what you think. Personally, I think Hernandez would fit just fine. The Vikings, like all teams, will run a hybrid. Almost no team is exclusively zone blocking or man blocking.

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2 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

Who says the player we drafted isn’t that guy?

Who says the player that we drafted is that guy? None of us know but several of us have said that we don't think Hughes is that guy.

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