Vikings select...Mike Hughes, CB, UCF

[Krauser]

1 hour ago, Klomp said:

You're exactly right. He's on a rookie deal for 4-5 years. Not 1-2 years. He doesn't need to be starting quality right away in order to get a good return on the investment.

He also could provide immediate contributions on special teams, so he's not going to truly be stuck to the bench the first year or two if he's not getting first-team reps right away.

OK, but — bear with me — what if instead of drafting Hughes the Vikings had drafted a player at a different position where there was an immediate need for an upgrade to the current starter — say, for instance, guard? — and that rookie was on the same 4-5 year contract but could be expected to start from 2018-22 instead of from 2020-22?

The team is supposedly in win-now mode (and has been since 2016, unless you think the Bradford trade was a colossal mistake). Their current starting CBs are good enough to win a championship, but IMO the current IOL is not.

It’s not even just my opinion — by multiple reports the Vikings had Ragnow as their main target at 30. No way they draft Ragnow with a plan to redshirt him behind Easton or Remmers, so he’d have been the starter as a rookie. Obviously they see the need for an upgrade there too.

With their main target off the board, as well as Price and Wynn, I understand they had a hard choice to make. But it seems to me that one of Hernandez, Williams, Corbett or Daniels would have been a fine choice, and would’ve had a direct path to starting as a rookie and upgrading the OL in the process. 

Bottom line: I think there were IOL upgrades available at pick 30 that would have improved the team more this year than Hughes will. I like Hughes a lot as a player and expect he’ll be very good in the long run. But in the short run, this is otherwise a roster that’s able to win now, so I think they’ll regret not taking advantage of the opportunity to immediately upgrade the OL. 

[Klomp]

There are a couple possibilities.

1. They didn't like the OL options (Hernandez, Williams, Corbett, Daniels) and how they would fit in the scheme they want to run.
2. They didn't think all five would go off the board between 31 and 61. This is probably the likeliest explanation, because it was hinted at by both Spielman and Stephenson on Friday. 

 

Really, it was an unprecedented run. I don't fault them for playing the odds that one of the five OL would be there at 62. Even with how the draft unfolded, I believe I still would prefer a Hughes/O'Neill combo over a OL/Davis combo, which is what it would've been had they flipped the order.

If there are 5-6 players you really like at one position group but only 1-2 at another group, isn't it smarter to try to get the best overall combination? Especially when normal draft trends indicate one of the 5-6 is likely to be there? Maybe they got burned. Maybe O'Neill was a guy they really liked, perhaps even more than some of the picks at the top of the second round. We don't really know.

[Krauser]

From what was left, they did like Corbett and Williams at least, according to Cronin's article. 

We can guess that O'Neill wasn't a prime target for them in the 2nd round, since otherwise they wouldn't be complaining about the run on guards in the second. 

The question of the "best overall combination" might favor Hughes/O'Neill in the long term. 

But if a rookie CB wasn't going to play this year no matter how talented, then CB wasn't nearly as much of an actual need *for this year* as IOL, where a rookie would've been an immediate upgrade. So even if Hughes/O'Neill is "the best overall combination" in the long term than IOL/whoever, it's not as valuable *right now*. So if the team is in win now mode, upgrading their current position of weakness instead of improving their longterm situation at a position of strength

They could have even gone crazy about upgrading the OL and drafted Williams/O'Neill or Corbett/O'Neill in the first 2 rounds, and then taken Gossett in the 6th too, just for good measure. That would be an immediate starter at guard plus an eventual upgrade at tackle, plus another depth piece and potential starter at guard, all in the same year. Imagine upgrading 2-3 of the 5 positions at the weakest position group on the team, all in the same year. 

And after that over investment in the OL, all the Vikings would have been left with at corner this year would be Rhodes, Waynes, Alexander, Newman, a late round rookie and as it turns out Holton Hill. Might almost be enough for a team that plays 2-3 corners at a time. 

[Klomp]

Even if the team is in "win now" mode, I don't think it can be shortsighted and only look at current needs. Draft picks should address longterm needs of the team too, I'd argue even more than short-term needs. Fans may consider OL a bigger need today, but maybe the team feels better about some of their younger fringe starters (Easton, Isidora) than they do about their younger fringe starters at CB (Alexander) at this point.

And what about free agency prices of adding a starter level CB versus a starter level RG/RT? Isn't the OL cheaper to upgrade?

That's why I'm not worried about the pick, even after re-signing Newman and picking up Waynes' option. Those two things affect the next two years, but that's it at this point. Plus, it's hard for me to say a team that gave up 352 passing yards to Nick Foles doesn't need any help in the secondary.

[Krauser]

That’s all just handwaving, after the fact. Easton and Isidora aren’t a reason not to upgrade the IOL. The Vikings know it — they were going to draft Ragnow. 

Hughes is a nice player but a luxury pick who’s not going to make them better this year, when they’re in a position to contend.

They gave up yards and points to the Eagles because they had zero pass rush, especially up the middle, not because their secondary played badly. The DBs got burned on slow developing double moves that Foles had time to watch develop. 

Beyond that, the Vikings lost because the OL couldn’t protect Keenum, and he couldn’t elevate the offense in the face of that pressure.

They upgraded the interior pass rush and upgraded the QB position already this year. 

The one thing missing from the list is the OL. And not only did the OL not get upgraded, it got worse — Berger retired. 

It makes no sense to ignore the loss of a full time starting OL who was your best player at the position group. They should’ve found an immediate replacement, if not upgrade. Instead, we’re left hoping that some combination of O’Neill, Hill, Compton, Isidora and Gossett can play as well as Berger did last year. If they can’t, the OL will be worse. Not maybe worse, actually worse.

And that need was fully obvious before the draft, and could have been responsibly addressed during the draft.

 

[RpMc]

I think that Hughes could absolutely make the team better... just not on defense.  I think, if his ability as a return man (particularly punt) is close to what's being described he could have a very big impact on the defense in terms of the field position game. Now, that's not ideally what you want from your first round pick, but I do think that they will definitely get use out of him during his "redshirt" defensive year if that does end up being the case.

As far as the offensive line taking a step back without Berger, that's entirely possible, maybe probable, but discounts the fact that Reiff, Remmers, Easton, and Elflein will be in their second year together as a unit and we could expect to see an improvement in play based on that. Perhaps enough to offset the loss of Berger and him being replaced with a lesser individual piece. Now that would simply maintain the unit as a below average one. One would hope that Easton and Eflein would improve, individually, in their second years as starters. Maybe the whole thing takes a step backwards in a new scheme, or DeFillipo's scheme could be even more offensive line friendly.  A first round offensive lineman would certainly make it all look better on paper

I know that is a lot of "ifs and buts," but I'm trying to find reasons to be optimistic about the line.

[CriminalMind]

To be honest I'm a lil bit perplexed now. If the Vikings picked up Waynes up now, it's likely that was decided pre draft as well, & Newman likely indicated intensions to return pre draft. With all those asset coming\staying on board it a lil odd they added Hughes even tho the player is good.

I was previously mocking CB in first round under the assumption of no Newman, not picking up Waynes 5th option & wanting a better boundary CB in combination with saving cap $ with no Waynes.

It seems they just got screwed by the run on OL & they (incorrectly) didn't want to move their 2nd & 3rd rounder to around #50 to get Connor Williams. It appears O'Neil was a reach out of need.

Maybe Newman is a camp cut? Opening Hughes to a good slot CB. We all wanted Honey Badger, maybe he can develop into one. Maybe we luck out with O'Neil and he develops ahead of schedule & takes the RT spot. I also don't get the non edge rusher selection until Aruna. Are they plenty high on him, I'm not sure. I still put these in lower chance right now of making real positive impact year 1.

I think Rick is a smart guy, & something tells me he is working the phones trying to add another OL with draft pick compensation. We have a lot next year so that's an option. The problem is I'm sure he doesn't want to take back a big salary. So he is gonna maybe need to settle for a vet camp cut & make a compelling offering & sales pitch. 

We upgraded the QB, the RB & some receiving targets (IMO), the defense should be stronger & special teams should be stronger (return\fg) but I think we're likely to have a regression on OL & did not improve in push rushing as the most likely scenario. I think we improved from the nfccg, but I think we could have improved more after the good off season start of Cousins\Cook\Richardson injection.

[The Gnat]

This was a bit of a surprise pick for me with both Williams and Hernandez available. I don't mind it too much, I've come around some on DB and thing that he fits what should be a profile for a good NFL player for a while. Would have loved to see them go offensive line, but Hughes has a nice skill set and to get the returning skills in there as well is cool. Hopefully he'll be able to step in and play in Zimmer's scheme quickly.

[Cearbhall]

I would have liked the draft a lot better if the first two rounds were their favorite OL in round one and O'Neill in round two.  @Krauser's posts are very good at explaining the logic. I want to like them but the system won't let me. Instead, you are all left with this comment to that effect. 

While I am convinced the Vikings screwed up the draft there is reason for optimism that they can salvage something with the Hughes/O'Neill first couple rounds. Whatever they can salvage is nice but at draft time it is not possible to really know what kind of production you will get out of any of the picks in the NFL. There is always a reasonable possibility that a pick, not matter how high, will not translate to the NFL. For this reason a team should never go into a draft with a need as glaring as the VIkings have on the offensive line. More than screwing up the draft, with all due respect to Mr. Compton, the Vikings failed miserably in free agency before the draft.

The Vikings once again failed to properly value available offensive line options in both free agency and the draft. Given they have a starter and a "starter" coming off fairly significant injuries has hardly been mentioned in how gaping the need is on the line. Did they learn nothing from the Sullivan, Loadholt, and Fusco injuries? Often, these big guys aren't the same when they come back from injuries. The team needs a better backup plan but they can hardly even address that since they are so far behind they haven't even addressed the retirement of their retired OG.

I do like Hughes as a player. He looks nice and I believe the team will be happy to have him. I just do not believe that the team will get as much value out of him as they would have gotten out of one of the offensive linemen that were available at that same pick. This problem was largely created by their failure in free agency.

[Krauser]

2 hours ago, CriminalMind said:

To be honest I'm a lil bit perplexed now. If the Vikings picked up Waynes up now, it's likely that was decided pre draft as well, & Newman likely indicated intensions to return pre draft. With all those asset coming\staying on board it a lil odd they added Hughes even tho the player is good.

I was previously mocking CB in first round under the assumption of no Newman, not picking up Waynes 5th option & wanting a better boundary CB in combination with saving cap $ with no Waynes.

It seems they just got screwed by the run on OL & they (incorrectly) didn't want to move their 2nd & 3rd rounder to around #50 to get Connor Williams. It appears O'Neil was a reach out of need.

Maybe Newman is a camp cut? Opening Hughes to a good slot CB. We all wanted Honey Badger, maybe he can develop into one. Maybe we luck out with O'Neil and he develops ahead of schedule & takes the RT spot. I also don't get the non edge rusher selection until Aruna. Are they plenty high on him, I'm not sure. I still put these in lower chance right now of making real positive impact year 1.

Man, this is what I was trying to explain before the draft: they were always going to keep Waynes for 2 more years — there was no real need to upgrade him and the cost of the option year isn’t prohibitive. With Waynes staying 2 more years, CB just wasn’t a need.

Don’t hold your breath for Newman getting cut. If he stays healthy, I bet he’ll play at least rotational snaps in week one.

I don’t think they should’ve traded up, that’s pretty much always a mistake. Using 2nd and 3rd rounders would’ve cost them O’Neill, Holmes and most of the value they used for Carlson, so that would’ve really hurt the overall structure of their draft class. 

The pick they should’ve used for OL was the first one. Either stay put and draft the BOLA or trade down and still get Daniels or Williams, probably. 

The one point I’ll make in favor of how it played out is that they might not have wanted to stay put and draft the next best guy at a position group after their target went off the board, since that’s the strategy that led to the worst two 1st round picks of Spielman’s tenure. They wanted Locker, but settled for Ponder, and wanted Doctson, but settled for Treadwell. Maybe wanting Ragnow and settling for Corbett or Williams would eventually be similarly disappointing.

...

In the end, the good news is that Hughes seems fully worthy of being a 1st round pick. He plays a valuable position, has no injury concerns and can contribute as a returner. 

Arif made the point on Norse Code that Hughes has also got a track record of learning quickly. He showed up at UCF just a couple of weeks before the season and was still able to start week one and play at a high level from the beginning.

So despite Zimmer’s high standards, there’s a real chance Hughes could win the NCB job outright and play 500 snaps or so this year. That would be at least a decent initial return on investment, even if I think Alexander would’ve been fine there this year, and there were other more pressing needs. 

 

[SemperFeist]

14 minutes ago, Krauser said:

Maybe wanting Ragnow and settling for Corbett or Williams would eventually be similarly disappointing.

If the Vikings would have drafted Corbett over Williams and Hernandez (which is how I think their board had it), this site would be just as “upset” as it is currently. 

[RpMc]

1 hour ago, Cearbhall said:

Given they have a starter and a "starter" coming off fairly significant injuries has hardly been mentioned in how gaping the need is on the line. Did they learn nothing from the Sullivan, Loadholt, and Fusco injuries? Often, these big guys aren't the same when they come back from injuries. The team needs a better backup plan but they can hardly even address that since they are so far behind they haven't even addressed the retirement of their retired OG.

Both Easton and Elflein suffered fractured ankles... not in the same realm as the back, knee, pec, or Achilles injuries that plagued Sullivan, Loadholt, and Fusco. Bone injury vs muscle or ligament injury - both suck, but the injuries to Loadholt (Achilles), Sullivan (knee/back) and Fusco (pec) are much more likely to have performance altering consequences.

both Easton and Elflein should be ready for camp. 

[Krauser]

29 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

If the Vikings would have drafted Corbett over Williams and Hernandez (which is how I think their board had it), this site would be just as “upset” as it is currently. 

I wouldn't be. I don't think most people would be -- Corbett was easily worth a late 1st/early 2nd (comparable to Bitonio, who was picked early 2nd).

I think most fans don't have too strong opinions on prospects beyond really high profile positions (Teddy vs Manziel, etc). But we have opinions on positions, because that's more about evaluating the current roster, and we all watch the Vikings enough to form an opinion on what their needs are.

[Klomp]

 

[SemperFeist]

1 hour ago, Krauser said:

I wouldn't be. I don't think most people would be -- Corbett was easily worth a late 1st/early 2nd (comparable to Bitonio, who was picked early 2nd).

I think most fans don't have too strong opinions on prospects beyond really high profile positions (Teddy vs Manziel, etc). But we have opinions on positions, because that's more about evaluating the current roster, and we all watch the Vikings enough to form an opinion on what their needs are.

People would have looked at big boards, and seen Williams and Hernandez ranked higher than Corbett, then we would be reading about how the Vikings reached. 

Been around this board for 12 years, a group of people will always find a way to complain about what happens.