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2019 Draft Discussion


jleisher

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1 minute ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

I've been having a bit of a think about who to draft at #12 (assuming we do draft there). For months I have been rather locked in to getting a pass rusher like Sweat, Polite, or even Ferrell if he slipped. i am beginning to think in a different direction.

If you had asked me a while back about getting a DL early, I would have laughed. Sure it's a great year for them, but with as many needs as the Packers have, you can make do with Clark, and Daniels as the studs, Lancaster and M.Adams as improving big bodies (possibly making Muhammed Wilkerson expendable) and Lowry as a good-enough -to-get-by-on guy. However, if it is true that Pettine likes his pressure to come from inside the line at least as much as from the outside, I'm re-thinking that no DL at #12 stance.

Here is a for-example scenario. The Packers get Ed Oliver or Rashan Gary or Christian Wilkins at #12. At #30 they get the best OT they can find, as by pick 44 the best are gone. At #44 they get a later-tier edge guy, one of Zach Allen, Jaylon Ferguson, Oshane Ximines, Brian Burns (lots of variation on where he goes), or my favourite, Charles Omenihu.

A front with (for example) Wilkins, Clark, Daniels, with Omenihu and probably still Nick Perry, is on paper a pretty good group to shove that pocket right back into the QBs face, or just burst through it. If you throw in occasional shifty blitzers like Josh Jones or Oren Burks, the Packers could give another team fits. Given how much pressure Pettine generated with not much to work with, this could transform the Packers in terms of pressure applied and significantly help the defensive backfield in coverage.

There is always a downside whoever you pick, in this case it is waiting until after pick 44 for a free safety, and the Packers need one badly. I'm a fan of Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (Florida) or Mike Bell (Fresno St.). if either is there in round three (currently pick 75).

It's tough to know because it depends on the player, but it has seemed hard fo find legimately good EDGE guys after R1. That's not to say there are none, but it doesn't seem to be like other positions where real quality can be found later.

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28 minutes ago, Cheech said:

 

I'm hoping for a Tillery/Mack Wilson type value at 44.  

I want an EDGE badly...but if one isn't there, I'd love a combo of Wilkens or Simmons at #12 and Mack Wilson at 30.  Want to get better defensively?  Do it up the middle.  Mack is pretty darned good in coverage, too.  

Drafting Wilson kind of means burying Burns, but I'm okay with that for him.  Mack's a keeper for sure.

Tillery has a lot of value to me, too.  Morso, though, in round 2, not end of round one.

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11 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

And it's also an expected value thing. The expected value of AP when he was drafted was not the outcome. We should be evaluating the process of the decision. It is so hard to provide positive value to winning as a RB because running the football hasn't done much in the past 15 years. That's not to say you should never run the football, but in my opinion, we should start attributing good running games to good OLs, not good RBs. If you want to have a good running game, get good OL, because then you also get the benefit of having good pass protection.

agree with just about all of this.

 

11 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

Calvin Johnson and Joe Thomas did go before AP...

i was just using a hypothetical example about the tiering.  i'm not saying that i disagree with the vikes decision at all.  maybe it played out the way it did because they didn't have that high of a grade of revis or anyone else that was available.

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1 minute ago, SSG said:

That site really does a great job with their draft stuff!

Yeah it has really grown on me this year.  The only part I don't like is that they still have a lot of evals to do on guys that are in the 150 to 250 range.

I'm really excited for their mock draft generator coming out in 2 weeks. 

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13 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Anthony Nelson
Zach Allen
Nasir Adderly
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (mostly for the Being There references)

Those are my favorites right now.  Getting one or two of them would make me love this draft. 

Why do you like Allen and Nelson? I see guys with major athleticism problems, so much so that they just can't really contribute in the NFL.

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Just now, Arthur Penske said:

Hard pass on nelson unless it’s late

Why?  Keep in mind, I don't actually do any scouting, I'm just going off very little information, body types, hype, etc.  I appreciate that type of thing from others on here. 

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Just now, rcon14 said:

Why do you like Allen and Nelson? I see guys with major athleticism problems, so much so that they just can't really contribute in the NFL.

I want versatile front 7 players and I've been told both Allen and Nelson could play any positions on the front 7 (except for ILB).  Not true? 

I'm also going a lot off an imported draft class in Madden.  I acknowledge that I don't know much at all about prospects, but both of them seem to be capable of what I mentioned. 

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1 minute ago, Outpost31 said:

I want versatile front 7 players and I've been told both Allen and Nelson could play any positions on the front 7 (except for ILB).  Not true? 

I'm also going a lot off an imported draft class in Madden.  I acknowledge that I don't know much at all about prospects, but both of them seem to be capable of what I mentioned. 

Allen and Nelson are what I call "I don't know where to play you" players rather than "I can play you anywhere" players. Rather than being versatile, they are actual tweeners. Not stout enough to play IDL, not athletic enough to play EDGE, and the 5-tech spot that they would traditionally fill is dying out with more nickel usage and less base. I think both are going to test incredibly poorly at the combine and they're going to plummet down boards.

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40 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Anthony Nelson
Zach Allen
Nasir Adderly
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (mostly for the Being There references)

Those are my favorites right now.  Getting one or two of them would make me love this draft. 

I like Adderley, I think there's a 95% chance that Oakland takes him with one of those picks in the 20s if they stay put.

I like Nelson and CGJ, not a huge fan of Zach Allen, but I would be alright with it at 30. 

Mine right now are:

TJ Hockenson (before seeing he will go top 20)
Devin Singletary
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
Rashan Gary
Khalen Saunders
Diontae Johnson

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