2019 Draft Discussion

[MacReady]

2 hours ago, Redt said:

The league is changing and recognizing the need for this type of player, therefore draft value goes up. Hey, don't get me wrong I would love to get a player like White in Rd 2-7, but I'm not sure that would happen moving forward. You might get D. Bush in Rd 2, but he is not on the same talent level as White IMO. Again, just my opinion and we will see how it all plays out. This is a weird draft for me, I thought #12 was shaping up to be a very good spot, but I just don't see the value in players that will be available at #12. Trade back and take BPA with all of the picks regardless of position, except QB and kicker.

If you think the league is changing to need a two down ILB, I don't know what league you've been watching. 

[Joe]

18 hours ago, Golfman said:

How are down does he fall with a Lisfrance injury? Those are still an unknown to come back from and certainly questionable if he maintains speed and quickness? This kid is nothing if he doesn't have that speed and quicks. 

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2019/story/_/id/26025248/oklahoma-wr-marquise-brown-miss-combine-pro-day-foot-surgery

I believe I was talking about Cody Ford. There's no text in the quote so I am not sure what you were quoting from me. I think Ford slides down the boards like just about every other OU OL that's come out in the past few years. Just a hunch.

[Redt]

Educate yourself D. White is not a two down ILB

[MacReady]

Just now, Redt said:

Educate yourself D. White is not a two down ILB

How many plays per game exactly do you think we're going to have two ILB on the field?  Do you expect a rookie Devin White to take snaps from a fourth year pro Blake Martinez?  If so, are you willing to negate our third/fourth best defensive player from 2018 for a possible upgrade at the least-important position on defense? 

Because if you draft White, you are negating Blake Martinez.  Martinez and White might be on the field for a single down. 

I'm perfectly well-educated, thanks.  All that education has led me to believe that either White is a 2 down (at best) LB, or Martinez becomes a 2 down (at best) LB. 

So drafting an ILB at 12 doesn't really provide all that much value at all.  It's taking one of our better players off the field, or keeping our 12th overall pick off the field, all while giving up on a third round pick as well as a good spot for Josh Jones to provide some value. 

 

 

 

[JBURGE]

1 minute ago, Outpost31 said:

How many plays per game exactly do you think we're going to have two ILB on the field?  Do you expect a rookie Devin White to take snaps from a fourth year pro Blake Martinez?  If so, are you willing to negate our third/fourth best defensive player from 2018 for a possible upgrade at the least-important position on defense? 

Because if you draft White, you are negating Blake Martinez.  Martinez and White might be on the field for a single down. 

I'm perfectly well-educated, thanks.  All that education has led me to believe that either White is a 2 down (at best) LB, or Martinez becomes a 2 down (at best) LB. 

So drafting an ILB at 12 doesn't really provide all that much value at all.  It's taking one of our better players off the field, or keeping our 12th overall pick off the field, all while giving up on a third round pick as well as a good spot for Josh Jones to provide some value. 

Really comes down to if White is seen as an elite prospect and we either don't move up/down and there's no other elite prospects left. I don't advocate for taking White either. Morrison and Burks combined for about 40% of defensive snaps last year. Maybe if we had really strong safeties that we could rely on so we could play 2 ILBs on 3rd downs, but I don't see it

[Joe]

7 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

Really comes down to if White is seen as an elite prospect and we either don't move up/down and there's no other elite prospects left. I don't advocate for taking White either. Morrison and Burks combined for about 40% of defensive snaps last year. Maybe if we had really strong safeties that we could rely on so we could play 2 ILBs on 3rd downs, but I don't see it

Agreed. We can't really evaluate our back end because our front-7 was inconsistent with pressure when it was needed. I think Burns projects as an Elephant OLB actually given some of that tape I saw; especially given his frame. I wouldn't say he has THAT much of a burst, but he's certain got the motor and a ton of power it looked like. 

[MacReady]

Just now, JBURGE said:

Really comes down to if White is seen as an elite prospect and we either don't move up/down and there's no other elite prospects left. I don't advocate for taking White either. Morrison and Burks combined for about 40% of defensive snaps last year. Maybe if we had really strong safeties that we could rely on so we could play 2 ILBs on 3rd downs, but I don't see it

There's going to be an elite player at a more important position than ILB.  No matter how the draft shakes out. 

1. Quinnen Williams
2. Nick Bosa
3. Josh Allen
4. Ed Oliver
5. Jonah Williams
6. Rashaan Gary
7. Jawaan Taylor
8. Clellin Ferrell
9. Christian Wilkins
10. Greedy Williams
11. Byron Murphy
12. Jachai Polite/Brian Burns

This is all assuming that neither Murray, Haskins, Lock or Daniel Jones get picked.  It also neglects the high potential of someone like Metcalf or Brown or Smith or Fant or Greg Little or Hockenson have a strong rise in hype. 

All 13 of those players provide significantly more value than Devin White.  There is zero scenario where drafting Devin White is the right move based on:

1. Positional Value
2. Team Need

I'd put odds at about 70% that one of Ferrell, Greedy Williams, Gary, Oliver or Josh Allen will be available at 12th overall.  Any single one of them is worth more than Devin White. 

As badly as we need defense, I would take either Jawaan Taylor or Jonah Williams before I take an ILB. 

If White was to fall to 30, then yeah, take him, but 12th overall, likely the highest draft pick we will have for the remainder of Aaron's career, I'm not using that on a damn ILB. 

Jaire Alexander and Greedy Williams is exponentially better than Jaire Alexander and Devin White going forward. 
Even a situational pass rusher provides more value. 
Protecting Rodgers provides more value.
 

[Lodestar]

7 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

How many plays per game exactly do you think we're going to have two ILB on the field?  Do you expect a rookie Devin White to take snaps from a fourth year pro Blake Martinez?  If so, are you willing to negate our third/fourth best defensive player from 2018 for a possible upgrade at the least-important position on defense? 

Because if you draft White, you are negating Blake Martinez.  Martinez and White might be on the field for a single down. 

I'm perfectly well-educated, thanks.  All that education has led me to believe that either White is a 2 down (at best) LB, or Martinez becomes a 2 down (at best) LB. 

So drafting an ILB at 12 doesn't really provide all that much value at all.  It's taking one of our better players off the field, or keeping our 12th overall pick off the field, all while giving up on a third round pick as well as a good spot for Josh Jones to provide some value. 

 

 

 

Blake Martinez played 99% of defensive snaps for us last year. No other ILB had more than 30%.

By comparison:

CHI - Danny Trevathan (94%) and Roquan Smith (84%)
HOU - Benardrick McKinney (86%) and Zach Cunningham (70%, missed two games)

I'm not advocating for White at #12 (give me EDGE or OT) but if he's BPA and we take him, I'm sure Pettine will find a way to get those two on the field 70-80% of the time.

[MacReady]

Just now, Lodestar said:

Blake Martinez played 99% of defensive snaps for us last year. No other ILB had more than 30%.

By comparison:

CHI - Danny Trevathan (94%) and Roquan Smith (84%)
HOU - Benardrick McKinney (86%) and Zach Cunningham (70%, missed two games)

I'm not advocating for White at #12 (give me EDGE or OT) but if he's BPA and we take him, I'm sure Pettine will find a way to get those two on the field 70-80% of the time.

I'm so confused by this.  This is my entire point.  Pettine does NOT use two ILB often.  When he does, the second ILB is usually Jones/Whitehead (safety hybrid).  In fact, that article that outlined what we should expect from Pettine heading into this past season explicitly stated that Pettine likes to use only one ILB when there's only one RB. 

So your defense for taking White is to change Pettine's scheme? 

We had two ILB on the field at the same time less often than any other 3-4 team in the league, and yet that's supposed to be a reason to get another one? 

So what exactly is the motivation to take White?  To get a darn good ILB (Martinez) off the field, or to get Pettine to start using two ILB in a league that is significantly cutting down on the need for two ILB on the field? 

This is just nonsense theater right now. 

[Packerraymond]

2 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I'm so confused by this.  This is my entire point.  Pettine does NOT use two ILB often.  When he does, the second ILB is usually Jones/Whitehead (safety hybrid).  In fact, that article that outlined what we should expect from Pettine heading into this past season explicitly stated that Pettine likes to use only one ILB when there's only one RB. 

So your defense for taking White is to change Pettine's scheme? 

We had two ILB on the field at the same time less often than any other 3-4 team in the league, and yet that's supposed to be a reason to get another one? 

So what exactly is the motivation to take White?  To get a darn good ILB (Martinez) off the field, or to get Pettine to start using two ILB in a league that is significantly cutting down on the need for two ILB on the field? 

This is just nonsense theater right now. 

Pettine plays his best players. I'm not advocating for White at 12 but I sure as hell know if he's the prospect that he's being made up to be that Josh Jones or Jermaine Whitehead aren't playing ahead of him, that's a Dom thing.

He played Bart Scott and David Harris together a lot in NY. 

[MacReady]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

Pettine plays his best players. I'm not advocating for White at 12 but I sure as hell know if he's the prospect that he's being made up to be that Josh Jones or Jermaine Whitehead aren't playing ahead of him, that's a Dom thing.

He played Bart Scott and David Harris together a lot in NY. 

Once again, makes no sense. 

It makes plenty of sense if we've got talent all around the defense.  It makes sense if we have a legitimate pass rusher.  It makes sense if we have a legitimate pair of safeties.  It makes sense if we have a legitimate corner next to Jaire who can stay healthy.

But when...

*your coordinator doesn't typically use two ILB.
*you already have a good ILB.
*You do not have a legitimate safety.
*You do not have a legitimate, healthy starter next to Jaire.
*Your defensive coordinator relies heavily on DL.
*You do not have a single legitimate pass rusher.
*You have a need for a future RT.
*You are guaranteed to have an equal prospect at a more important position.

... When you take all of that into account, you have to do some serious Gold Medal level mental gymnastics to rationalize taking an ILB 12th overall when you have 4-5 years left of a franchise QB. 

For the 2019 Green Bay Packers, drafting an ILB 12th overall is tantamount to buying a pool without a yard, buying a sectional without a house, wiping your butt before you poop and then pooping your pants and howling at the moon. 

[pacman5252]

I don't think White would be a bad pick (not my #1 pick by any means). With Mike Pettine, White would step in and realistically would probably get as many sacks as any rookie edge and add coverage ability from the position (like 4-7 sacks).  People glorify the edge position, but with talented players, you can scheme up pressures. The 201Xs Jets were built with dynamic ILBs and good DL. NE's D won this year with confusion and top end coverage. If Gute and Co think that the edge that falls (Burns, Polite) is too big of a project (which is definitely arguably... twitch undersized players who in all honestly probably aren't 3 down players year 1...  I could see the NFL saying they are situational round 2 prospects like Landry was last eyar)  I could see the White pick making a lot of sense.

[Redt]

You keep choosing to ignore cogent rationale for drafting D. White and pounding the table because you don't agree, we all get it and you repeating your point doesn't make it anymore valid. I would love to see both Martinez and White on the field for all three downs which is totally doable based on White's skill set. Yet, you prefer J. Jones in that role, okay.

 

"I'd put odds at about 70% that one of Ferrell, Greedy Williams, Gary, Oliver or Josh Allen will be available at 12th overall.  Any single one of them is worth more than Devin White." 

I disagree with the above statement, Josh Allen will be gone by #12, if by some kind of miracle he is still there I would draft him over White. As for the rest I believe White will be more of a difference maker than the rest. I want nothing to do with Oliver, Ferrell, or Gary until #30. I would be inclined for an OT at #12 than the reaches you present, again just my opinion.

 

Not sure why I keep responding to you when I have sworn it off a million times, you are the King of Dogma!

[MacReady]

Just now, Redt said:

Yet, you prefer J. Jones in that role, okay.

You prefer Nick Perry and Kyler Fackrell at EDGE with two ILB on passing downs.  Great strategy. 

[Packerraymond]

32 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Once again, makes no sense. 

It makes plenty of sense if we've got talent all around the defense.  It makes sense if we have a legitimate pass rusher.  It makes sense if we have a legitimate pair of safeties.  It makes sense if we have a legitimate corner next to Jaire who can stay healthy.

But when...

*your coordinator doesn't typically use two ILB.
*you already have a good ILB.
*You do not have a legitimate safety.
*You do not have a legitimate, healthy starter next to Jaire.
*Your defensive coordinator relies heavily on DL.
*You do not have a single legitimate pass rusher.
*You have a need for a future RT.
*You are guaranteed to have an equal prospect at a more important position.

... When you take all of that into account, you have to do some serious Gold Medal level mental gymnastics to rationalize taking an ILB 12th overall when you have 4-5 years left of a franchise QB. 

For the 2019 Green Bay Packers, drafting an ILB 12th overall is tantamount to buying a pool without a yard, buying a sectional without a house, wiping your butt before you poop and then pooping your pants and howling at the moon. 

Not arguing the value of an ILB at 12, you should know me better. I'm arguing the notion that Pettine wouldn't play him if we had him because "his scheme" likes a hybrid instead of true ILB. He'll play our best players, White would certainly be one.