2019 Draft Discussion

[MacReady]

Just now, Arthur Penske said:

Good strategy for trying to deflect saying something obtuse and presenting with 1st hand evidence disproving it.

No, it's just a fact.  Yeah, my strategy would have missed on Clay Matthews. 

My strategy also would have avoided Datone Jones and given us Harrison Smith over Nick Perry. 

You keep pointing to what would have been my misses while neglecting the fact that 7/19 ILB drafted in the past 10 years have been HARD busts, that only ONE taken in the top 20 turned out to have been the best pick (Mosely) and that 6 more were injury/character busts. 

How far back did you have to go to bring up Reynolds and Holliday?  You had to go back into a different era of football where what I'm saying makes less sense.  It made exponentially more sense to draft a WR in 1998 than it does in even 2008, much less 2018. 

Do you think my opinions are in some sort of vacuum and that they aren't based on the NFL as it is? 

In the 90's, ILB was probably more important than CB.  Now?  Not.

[MacReady]

Just now, JBURGE said:

I love Jaire, but I still think Denzel Ward is the best corner in the draft. My prospect-boner for him was firm. 

Eh, Ward doesn't have Alexander's swagger.  Alexander didn't have the pass rush and support Ward did.  I still take Alexander. 

[JBURGE]

Just now, Outpost31 said:

Eh, Ward doesn't have Alexander's swagger.  Alexander didn't have the pass rush and support Ward did.  I still take Alexander. 

That's fine, they were both very good this year. I think Denzel is more sticky and he has the better physical tools. Yeah Jaire ends up a better leader. 

I think what we're looking at here is I think Ward is going to be a better corner, and maybe Jaire a better football player? If that makes sense

[MacReady]

This is also neglecting the fact that everybody is panicking for no reason whatsoever.  Y'all are acting like there won't be a single offensive player drafted in the top 11 when I can practically guarantee 5 offensive players will be drafted in the top 11.  I've already pointed out that in the past 10 years, the MAJORITY of the top 11 picks have been offensive, and NONE of the last ten drafts have had less than 5 offensive players drafted in the top 11.

The reason for this is threefold:

1. QB obsession.  Teams will talk themselves into reaching on a QB. 
2. Skill position players ALWAYS have meteoric rises.  There WILL be a receiver drafted in the top 11.  There will LIKELY be two quarterbacks taken.  There will be at least one tackle taken.  There might even be a tight end taken.
3. Teams picking top ten typically pick there because they are bad at running a franchise.  This leads to stupid picks. 

I'm telling you... One of Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Clellin Ferrel, Josh Allen, Rashaan Gary or Ed Oliver will be available at 12.  All six are better prospects (considering positional value) than White. 

[rcon14]

10 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

This is also neglecting the fact that everybody is panicking for no reason whatsoever.  Y'all are acting like there won't be a single offensive player drafted in the top 11 when I can practically guarantee 5 offensive players will be drafted in the top 11.  I've already pointed out that in the past 10 years, the MAJORITY of the top 11 picks have been offensive, and NONE of the last ten drafts have had less than 5 offensive players drafted in the top 11.

The reason for this is threefold:

1. QB obsession.  Teams will talk themselves into reaching on a QB. 
2. Skill position players ALWAYS have meteoric rises.  There WILL be a receiver drafted in the top 11.  There will LIKELY be two quarterbacks taken.  There will be at least one tackle taken.  There might even be a tight end taken.
3. Teams picking top ten typically pick there because they are bad at running a franchise.  This leads to stupid picks. 

I'm telling you... One of Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Clellin Ferrel, Josh Allen, Rashaan Gary or Ed Oliver will be available at 12.  All six are better prospects (considering positional value) than White. 

Yup yup yup yup yup yup yup yup.

And let's say the apocalypse happens, and everyone we want in that tier is gone, we could just trade down because someone will want one of the remaining QBs. In no situation should GB be stuck with taking a low-value position at 12. They'll either get one of the high-quality high-value positions, or be able to trade down because a high-value position (QB) will be available and another team will covet it.

[Lodestar]

21 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

That's fine, they were both very good this year. I think Denzel is more sticky and he has the better physical tools. Yeah Jaire ends up a better leader. 

I think what we're looking at here is I think Ward is going to be a better corner, and maybe Jaire a better football player? If that makes sense

Jaire is a tone-setter. We need guys like him badly on defense. I'm so glad we have him.

[vegas492]

30 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Eh, Ward doesn't have Alexander's swagger.  Alexander didn't have the pass rush and support Ward did.  I still take Alexander. 

I had a pretty big draft crush on Ward, too.  Was sad when he went above GB.  I spent very little time looking at Alexander, pre-draft.  He wasn't big enough, and by the same logic, I thought Ward was.  Ward at 5'11'' and 183 pounds.  Alexander at 5'10'' 196. LOL!  I was over biased about Ward because of where he played and the fact that Alexander was hurt a lot in college.  And... I was wrong.

There is something to be said about swagger and corners.  Just enough swagger and it's perfect.  Too much and you get Ahmad Carrol.  Jaire flirts that line for me.  I think as he matures, that swagger will lessen and he will have more confidence out there, like letting his play speak for itself.

Just so very much to love about Jaire, especially where we got him versus where Ward went.  

[MacReady]

12 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

Yup yup yup yup yup yup yup yup.

And let's say the apocalypse happens, and everyone we want in that tier is gone, we could just trade down because someone will want one of the remaining QBs. In no situation should GB be stuck with taking a low-value position at 12. They'll either get one of the high-quality high-value positions, or be able to trade down because a high-value position (QB) will be available and another team will covet it.

Thank you.

Burns/Sweat/Polite plus maybe another second round pick or a 2020 first round pick provides more value than White.

If a nightmare scenario unfolds, if 11 defensive players are taken in the top 11, and if we can't get good value on a trade down, THEN I would CONSIDER taking White.  I would also consider taking a QB or an offensive tackle before taking White, too.

[Shanedorf]

This one of Jaire is soooo awesome because he doesn't stand over the guy glaring at him ( penalty)
Instead he struts his stuff, just enough humor for the Refs to let it slide

 

[vegas492]

26 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

This is also neglecting the fact that everybody is panicking for no reason whatsoever.  Y'all are acting like there won't be a single offensive player drafted in the top 11 when I can practically guarantee 5 offensive players will be drafted in the top 11.  I've already pointed out that in the past 10 years, the MAJORITY of the top 11 picks have been offensive, and NONE of the last ten drafts have had less than 5 offensive players drafted in the top 11.

The reason for this is threefold:

1. QB obsession.  Teams will talk themselves into reaching on a QB. 
2. Skill position players ALWAYS have meteoric rises.  There WILL be a receiver drafted in the top 11.  There will LIKELY be two quarterbacks taken.  There will be at least one tackle taken.  There might even be a tight end taken.
3. Teams picking top ten typically pick there because they are bad at running a franchise.  This leads to stupid picks. 

I'm telling you... One of Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Clellin Ferrel, Josh Allen, Rashaan Gary or Ed Oliver will be available at 12.  All six are better prospects (considering positional value) than White. 

I agree with a lot of what you said.  Except that Gary and Oliver terrify me.  Gary for his non-productive collegiate career and Oliver for his size and lack of power.  I'd take White over Oliver and Gary.

And as you stated earlier, we really don't need to discuss much of this regarding White as I don't see how he gets past the Bengals.  

[pacman5252]

2 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

 

Keith Rivers, Jarod Mayo, Aaron Curry, Brian Cushing, Sean Weatherspoon, Rolando McClain, Luke Kuechly (Gilmore, Poe and Cox were the next three taken and all three provide more value than Kuechly lol), Dont'a Hightower, Alec Ogletree, Anthony Barr, Ryan Shazier, CJ Mosley, Marcus Smith, Shaq Thompson, Stephone Anthony, Darron Lee, Hasaan Reddick, Jarrad Davis, Reuben Foster.

 

This has been addressed by me  many thousands of times. 

19 ILB drafted since 2008. 
7 hard busts.
6 injury/character busts
3 short stints/flaming out
3 hits

 

This post is a little off.

1. If you play draft revisionist, you are always going to find busts

2. Most of these guys were 4-3 OLBs, not ILBs

3. I think your evaluations (probably because you are coming in with are negative premise) is off. Which 7 are you calling hard busts? I only see 4- Curry, McClain, M Smith, and Anthony

Additional Pro Bowlers-Cushing, Mayo, Barr, Shazier  (some had careers cut short but weren't busts)

Solid-  Ogletree, Thomposon, Lee, Reddick, Davis, Rivers, Witherspoon  (Rivers and Wither had some injuries, but were good, both had 4 good years starting)

Foster is the character red flag bust (which everyone knew about going into the draft... pick 31 for a reason). 

 

Granted every draft is different, but looking at these numbers

7/19- 37% chance of getting a pro bowler ( could increase with Lee and Davis who are fringe pro bowl candidates)

4/19- 21% at an absolute bust

37% chance at a solid multiple year starter (again might go down depending on Davis and Lee)

5% Rueban Foster, which again was predicted when he was picked and why he lasted to 31.

 

 

 

[fattlipp]

3 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

LOL, my God. 

What about Rodgers throwing to a 6'4", 206 pound WR who runs a sub 4.4? 
Plus a 6'5", 214 pound WR who ran a 4.48? 

Also, what if I told you both those players were entering their second years after averaging over 15 yards per reception? 

Is it the first round WR aspect you want?

What if I told you that MVS, if compared to first round receivers, would rank 37th out of 68 first round receivers drafted since 2000?  What if I told you he would rank 21st out of those 68 receivers in yards per reception?  That he would rank 25th in yards per target?  And that he had those rankings in spite of ranking 36th in targets out of those 68 first round receivers? 

So what would you say if I told you that we got top half production for a first round receiver in the past ten years, except we got him at the very last pick of the 5th round? 

Would you then say that, maybe, it's not a wise investment to use a first round pick on a non-premium position when it is the highest pick we have had since 2009 and is likely the highest pick we will have for the next five years?  Especially in light of the fact that we already have an elite receiver, the third most promising rookie of the 2018 WR draft class and urgent needs elsewhere? 

 

Metcalf is a much better prospect than our current WRs

player comparisons,

Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, David Boston

 

If he didn't have med flags he would be treated like Julio in this draft.

 

Course you wouldn't know this cause you don't watch college football...lol

and why do you keep changing your username HZ

[ReadyToThump]

32 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

This one of Jaire is soooo awesome because he doesn't stand over the guy glaring at him ( penalty)
Instead he struts his stuff, just enough humor for the Refs to let it slide

 

There's a difference between having this so called 'swag', and being a d-bag. This is leaning towards the latter. 

Sidenote: I cringe when someone uses the term swag or swagger. 

[PACKRULE]

25 minutes ago, ReadyToThump said:

There's a difference between having this so called 'swag', and being a d-bag. This is leaning towards the latter. 

Sidenote: I cringe when someone uses the term swag or swagger. 

This play was funny but last year he didn't do anything of the sort. He seems to be bright enough to know when to and when not. HIs play last year was flat out great more often the not. He contested about everything and shows what you want in a DB. Very willing tackler also in the run game.

[Arthur Penske]

1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

This one of Jaire is soooo awesome because he doesn't stand over the guy glaring at him ( penalty)
Instead he struts his stuff, just enough humor for the Refs to let it slide

 

Probably why BB loved him

plan to use this gif generously during the combine