2019 Draft Discussion

[MacReady]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Your "bust" list for ILB stunk. Darron Lee, Ryan Shazier, Shaq Thomson busts? Lol

Most of the busts came from 2008-2009, that's why you went back that far, also included a true EDGE bust in Marcus Smith to pad the numbers.

1st round ILB has been extremely safe as of late. Reuben Foster and Anthony are the two trees busts, both fell to the end of round 1 for the very reason they busted for. 

I keep forgetting Malcolm Smith was drafted as edge, my bad.

But no, I always go back ten years. It's not just something I did for linebackers.  

And if you don't think it's telling that only one time ILB was the best choice... How many times do you think QB would have been the best choice?  EDGE?  OT?  DB?

But you've got once in the past ten years where ILB was the best choice and you don't think that's telling?

You take the risk on the more important position unless that non-premium is an elite talent and the premium position is only good. 

You know that, so why you dragging this out?

[MacReady]

43 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Yeah that comment by Outpost31 was a head scratcher even coming from him. Ward is on a whole other level.

I believe Alexander will have the better career.  How is that a head scratcher?  Are you forgetting he (Alexander) received all-pro votes with our safeties and our pass rush?

[thrILL!]

Jaire is right there with Ward.  They’re both outstanding young CBs. 

[Golfman]

6 hours ago, thrILL! said:

Jaire is right there with Ward.  They’re both outstanding young CBs. 

I"m excited to see our CBs next year. I think King is a player if he can stay healthy. Jackson is going to make a nice leap year two IMO also. Hoping we bring back Breeland as well. 

I've got some hope for Tony Brown too. He's got the athleticism to be very good. 

If it all comes together this could be a special group of CBs. 

 

[Golfman]

9 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

I keep forgetting Malcolm Smith was drafted as edge, my bad.

But no, I always go back ten years. It's not just something I did for linebackers.  

And if you don't think it's telling that only one time ILB was the best choice... How many times do you think QB would have been the best choice?  EDGE?  OT?  DB?

But you've got once in the past ten years where ILB was the best choice and you don't think that's telling?

You take the risk on the more important position unless that non-premium is an elite talent and the premium position is only good. 

You know that, so why you dragging this out?

There are more than 10 positions so why is that telling? I value EDGE over inside linebacker but we've been getting torched in the middle of the field far too long because our inside linebackers have been terrible. 

Haven't given up on Burks. I think Martinez is as good as we've had in a long, long, time. I want EDGE in round 1 if there is value. I don't want White @12 no matter what. I'd sooner trade down. 

I'd be fine with Vosean Joseph or Terrell Hanks in round 3-4 if they last that long to add depth to ILB. 

[Arthur Penske]

 

[Packerraymond]

13 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

I keep forgetting Malcolm Smith was drafted as edge, my bad.

But no, I always go back ten years. It's not just something I did for linebackers.  

And if you don't think it's telling that only one time ILB was the best choice... How many times do you think QB would have been the best choice?  EDGE?  OT?  DB?

But you've got once in the past ten years where ILB was the best choice and you don't think that's telling?

You take the risk on the more important position unless that non-premium is an elite talent and the premium position is only good. 

You know that, so why you dragging this out?

You can use hindsight to say there would've been better choices and that's fine. This draft Gute doesn't get that luxury.

If the board doesn't fall our way and his choice is a boom/bust OT like Taylor or a guy like Polite who let's say weighs in too small and Pettine is isn't comfortable that he fits vs a safe pick like White who will probably be a top 10 ILB for 8+ years, I have no issue with Gute going the safe route.

[snackattack]

13 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

You take the risk on the more important position unless that non-premium is an elite talent and the premium position is only good. 

"Elite" and "good" are too general for this conversation.  Imagine a hypothetical situation where we have three tiers of players.  we get to pick #12 and all of tier 1 is gone, only non-premium positions remain in tier 2, and there are premium position players available in tier 3.  are you saying that you wouldn't select a non-premium player from our tier 2?

[pacman5252]

15 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Trying to take an extreme and paint it as the standard couldn't be anymore from the truth.  Would you take a kicker or punter in the first round?  No you wouldn't, which proves that positional value is absolutely part of the equation.  There's varying levels of positional value.  The difference between a QB is closer to EDGE than EDGE is to say RB.  If I'm looking to take a RB, it needs to be exponentially better than the EDGE.  What you (and others) are arguing is that this somehow crazy hypothetical where we're sitting on the board with RBs, OGs, and ILBs that are multiple tiers ahead of an EDGE, DL, or OT.  As it's been discussed ad nauseam, the chances of that happening are miniscule and would provide ample opportunities to trade down.  And I'd think most would argue that a third round pick (or whatever they'd trade down and acquire) gives the Packers an extra pick to play with.  A pick in the late teens with a Day 2 pick to me is more valuable than taking an ILB or OG at 12.

Cwood, kicker/punter hasn't been the argument. Don't create a strawman. There have been people flaming about taking guards, wrs, and linebackers. In addition, nobody is saying we should take a  pure OG at 12  (maybe a OT that can play G).

[MacReady]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

If the board doesn't fall our way and his choice is a boom/bust OT like Taylor or a guy like Polite who let's say weighs in too small and Pettine is isn't comfortable that he fits vs a safe pick like White who will probably be a top 10 ILB for 8+ years, I have no issue with Gute going the safe route.

And what is your opinion on draft capital in relation to Super Bowls? 

When do you expect to get this type of draft capital again? 

Would additional draft capital spent on more important positions not benefit us more than a top 10 ILB for 8 years when we already have a top 16 ILB currently on the roster? 

Would, say, 24th overall plus an additional 2020 first round pick and Polite/Burns/Sweat not provide more value than White? 

You talk of boom/bust OT Taylor and yet you don't acknowledge that White is just as capable of busting.  Taylor might boom at OT, he might bust at OT, but if he busts at OT, chances are you're getting a boom at guard.  What do you do with White if he busts? 

And don't tell me the whole "it takes two to tango" in a trade down scenario.  Any scenario in which the board falls terribly for us is a scenario where 5 teams will want to trade up to 12 to take a QB. 

You're not convincing me that White is the best option at 12, and you never will.  12th overall is the best draft pick we will have for the next five years, and in light of that, there is no scenario where using our best pick (one that is supposed to be the second piece to our team for Aaron's remaining years) on an ILB is the best option. 

It's time for you to stop playing Devil's Advocate and face reality.  We are not getting one of the pass rushers in free agency.  There will probably be 3 that actually hit free agency.  The three that hit free agency are getting priced right out of Green Bay.  Our best bet in free agency for EDGE is Suggs or some other old pass rusher who is a third pass rusher on 16 other teams. 

We have nothing at EDGE nor Safety, and we have unreliable prospects opposite Alexander.  12th overall HAS to be the perfect blend of need versus value. 

12th overall somehow, someway has to fill a spot that reflects defensive needs of this era of football. 

It's illogical to use that amount of draft capital on a position like that.  If you want to go that route, pick up the extra first and select Mack Wilson at 25th overall.  Draft Devin Bush at 25th overall.  Polite, Sweat, Burns, Murphy, Adderly, Risner, Taylor, Wilson, Baker, Omenihu, Ferguson...

One of those players will be available at 25th overall.  Pushing your draft capital into next year (with a chance at it increasing from 12th overall to any number) and getting a less-promising, more valuable position is still worth more than White at 12. 

Devin White at 12th overall is the type of player you pick if you're a team like the Falcons or Eagles or a team that had a slight HICCUP in their goals and are otherwise built with a solid foundation around their QB and just had a bad season. 

ILB is not the position you take when you have clearly been in decline and devoid of star talent at important positions for the past two, even three years. 

We need a foundation pick with 12th overall, not a luxury pick. 

[MacReady]

Just now, snackattack said:

"Elite" and "good" are too general for this conversation.  Imagine a hypothetical situation where we have three tiers of players.  we get to pick #12 and all of tier 1 is gone, only non-premium positions remain in tier 2, and there are premium position players available in tier 3.  are you saying that you wouldn't select a non-premium player from our tier 2?

I don't think Elite and Good are too general.  I presented, essentially, 6 tiers:

Elite, Great, Good, Average, below average, bad. 

If non-premium is elite, there better not be a great premium position. 

Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3

That's the same thing I've said.  If there are only tier 3 premium positions available but there is a Tier 1 non-premium, I take the non-premium, sure.  If there's a Tier 2 non-premium and a Tier 3 premium, yeah, I take the Premium. 

This also neglects the possibility for a trade down, which, at 12th overall, gives you extreme value, and likely another first round pick in 2020, which means two Tier Three players or better opposed to one Tier 2 player. 

 

[OneTwoSixFive]

1 hour ago, Outpost31 said:

We need a foundation pick with 12th overall, not a luxury pick. 

Foundation......Foundation and Empire.........Second Foundation. It's the future, ask Hari Seldon, he knows

[MacReady]

Just now, pacman5252 said:

Cwood, kicker/punter hasn't been the argument. Don't create a strawman. There have been people flaming about taking guards, wrs, and linebackers. In addition, nobody is saying we should take a  pure OG at 12  (maybe a OT that can play G).

It fits in the argument though.  It's extremely fitting in a discussion on positional value. 

What would it take for you to draft a kicker?  9/10 on kicks from 60 yards or more, 65/70 on kicks between 50 and 60 yards and 98% on kicks within 49 yards?  That would be the greatest kicker prospect ever.  That's a generational talent.  It's still a kicker.  How valuable is a kicker? 

Same thing applies to ILB/WR/TE/IOL.  How great a prospect does it have to be to use a pick higher than you should on the position? 

In relation to White, is he even the best ILB prospect in the past 5 years?  Seems to me he's just the best in the class and that he's not some Lewis/Kuechly prospect.  Seems to me he's just the best in the class. 

So... If he's not a generational talent, why are we talking about him at 12th overall? 

If we were talking about him at 24th overall, sure, valid discussion.  But 12th overall? 

[Packerraymond]

22 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

And what is your opinion on draft capital in relation to Super Bowls? 

When do you expect to get this type of draft capital again? 

Would additional draft capital spent on more important positions not benefit us more than a top 10 ILB for 8 years when we already have a top 16 ILB currently on the roster? 

Would, say, 24th overall plus an additional 2020 first round pick and Polite/Burns/Sweat not provide more value than White? 

You talk of boom/bust OT Taylor and yet you don't acknowledge that White is just as capable of busting.  Taylor might boom at OT, he might bust at OT, but if he busts at OT, chances are you're getting a boom at guard.  What do you do with White if he busts? 

And don't tell me the whole "it takes two to tango" in a trade down scenario.  Any scenario in which the board falls terribly for us is a scenario where 5 teams will want to trade up to 12 to take a QB. 

You're not convincing me that White is the best option at 12, and you never will.  12th overall is the best draft pick we will have for the next five years, and in light of that, there is no scenario where using our best pick (one that is supposed to be the second piece to our team for Aaron's remaining years) on an ILB is the best option. 

It's time for you to stop playing Devil's Advocate and face reality.  We are not getting one of the pass rushers in free agency.  There will probably be 3 that actually hit free agency.  The three that hit free agency are getting priced right out of Green Bay.  Our best bet in free agency for EDGE is Suggs or some other old pass rusher who is a third pass rusher on 16 other teams. 

We have nothing at EDGE nor Safety, and we have unreliable prospects opposite Alexander.  12th overall HAS to be the perfect blend of need versus value. 

12th overall somehow, someway has to fill a spot that reflects defensive needs of this era of football. 

It's illogical to use that amount of draft capital on a position like that.  If you want to go that route, pick up the extra first and select Mack Wilson at 25th overall.  Draft Devin Bush at 25th overall.  Polite, Sweat, Burns, Murphy, Adderly, Risner, Taylor, Wilson, Baker, Omenihu, Ferguson...

One of those players will be available at 25th overall.  Pushing your draft capital into next year (with a chance at it increasing from 12th overall to any number) and getting a less-promising, more valuable position is still worth more than White at 12. 

Devin White at 12th overall is the type of player you pick if you're a team like the Falcons or Eagles or a team that had a slight HICCUP in their goals and are otherwise built with a solid foundation around their QB and just had a bad season. 

ILB is not the position you take when you have clearly been in decline and devoid of star talent at important positions for the past two, even three years. 

We need a foundation pick with 12th overall, not a luxury pick. 

If Gute makes the pick at 12 I'm going to assume there wasn't a good deal there to take. You can keep typing 10000 word essays until April, not even worth discussing to me. Sure if he trades into the 20s in that scenario for a surplus of value I'll be fine, if he doesn't then there wasn't a deal to make.

White does not have equal chance of busting as Taylor. That's why one is a boom/bust and the other is a safe pick. That whole paragraph makes absolutely no sense.

At #12 I want the best player for the Packers on the board. Positional value should boost the individual grades of premium positions with a multiplier as I've advocated many times. Yet if we're in a scenario where even with your position multiplier the BPA is an ILB, make the pick. 

[pacman5252]

11 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

It fits in the argument though.  It's extremely fitting in a discussion on positional value. 

What would it take for you to draft a kicker?  9/10 on kicks from 60 yards or more, 65/70 on kicks between 50 and 60 yards and 98% on kicks within 49 yards?  That would be the greatest kicker prospect ever.  That's a generational talent.  It's still a kicker.  How valuable is a kicker? 

Same thing applies to ILB/WR/TE/IOL.  How great a prospect does it have to be to use a pick higher than you should on the position? 

In relation to White, is he even the best ILB prospect in the past 5 years?  Seems to me he's just the best in the class and that he's not some Lewis/Kuechly prospect.  Seems to me he's just the best in the class. 

So... If he's not a generational talent, why are we talking about him at 12th overall? 

If we were talking about him at 24th overall, sure, valid discussion.  But 12th overall? 

Derp, nobody is arguing taking a kicker at 12/30. That is a complete strawman.

People have brought up Hock, Metcalf, White at 12. They are all (depending on medicals) legitimate blue chip prospects. I'd have no problem taking one of those 3 over a 235/240 pound edge defender if that is what the team decided. I like the edge prospects and would be happy with the big 3 (Allen/Polite/Burns), but Burns/Polite are pretty physically risky prospects (we saw a similar undersized rusher drop to the second round after getting top 5 hype last year in Landry... maybe we are overvaluing). 

The same at 30. People have brought up guards/wrs/S (still valuable positions, not LT/DE/Corner, but not fricken kicker). Likely all the top edges will be off the board and we could get a real starting level prospect over a development edge guy.