2019 Draft Discussion

[snackattack]

Watching some coaches film (youtube highlights) on the corners this year. Anyone else think our two corners from last year are really good comps for julian love and byron murphy? Love is a slightly undersized guy that has good ball skills and plays more physical than you might think based on his size. Murphys game reminds me of jackson all day but a little more physical. Seemed to play a lot of off man, which is maybe why he reminds me of jackson.  Smooth athlete, good ball skills (maybe not as good as jj), and good size

[CWood21]

8 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

Cwood, kicker/punter hasn't been the argument. Don't create a strawman. There have been people flaming about taking guards, wrs, and linebackers. In addition, nobody is saying we should take a  pure OG at 12  (maybe a OT that can play G).

It's not a strawman.  It's proving an argument using the most extreme possible so there's no room for any confusion.  Everyone would argue that a QB is more valuable than a P.   A LT is more valuable than a LG, so on and so forth.  We actually had this same discussion last year with regards to Nelson.  We had a real discussion about whether or not if Nelson was on the board when the Packers picked at 14 should they take him?

[CWood21]

8 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

Derp, nobody is arguing taking a kicker at 12/30. That is a complete strawman.

People have brought up Hock, Metcalf, White at 12. They are all (depending on medicals) legitimate blue chip prospects. I'd have no problem taking one of those 3 over a 235/240 pound edge defender if that is what the team decided. I like the edge prospects and would be happy with the big 3 (Allen/Polite/Burns), but Burns/Polite are pretty physically risky prospects (we saw a similar undersized rusher drop to the second round after getting top 5 hype last year in Landry... maybe we are overvaluing). 

The same at 30. People have brought up guards/wrs/S (still valuable positions, not LT/DE/Corner, but not fricken kicker). Likely all the top edges will be off the board and we could get a real starting level prospect over a development edge guy.

You and I have WAY different definitions of a way blue chip prospect is.  A blue chip prospect is our elite of the elite prospects.  Neither Hock, nor Metcalf, nor White are blue chip prospects.  Do you think Hock is an elite TE?  No.  Do you think Metcalf is an elite WR?  No.  Do you think Devin White is an elite ILB?  None of them are what I'd even come close to considering an elite prospect.

[Lodestar]

13 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

You and I have WAY different definitions of a way blue chip prospect is.  A blue chip prospect is our elite of the elite prospects.  Neither Hock, nor Metcalf, nor White are blue chip prospects.  Do you think Hock is an elite TE?  No.  Do you think Metcalf is an elite WR?  No.  Do you think Devin White is an elite ILB?  None of them are what I'd even come close to considering an elite prospect.

I don't know if any of them are blue-chip or elite prospects, but they each have the potential to be elite players—probably a better chance than some of the guys who will go before them. If Metcalf turns into a Julio Jones or Josh Gordon type player, if Hockenson becomes the next Gronkowski, if White develops into an All-Pro linebacker, a lot of teams will regret passing on them. Obviously none of these scenarios is guaranteed or even likely, but these seem to be three very high-ceiling players. The Combine will tell us more.

[cannondale]

3 hours ago, Lodestar said:

I don't know if any of them are blue-chip or elite prospects, but they each have the potential to be elite players—probably a better chance than some of the guys who will go before them. If Metcalf turns into a Julio Jones or Josh Gordon type player, if Hockenson becomes the next Gronkowski, if White develops into an All-Pro linebacker, a lot of teams will regret passing on them. Obviously none of these scenarios is guaranteed or even likely, but these seem to be three very high-ceiling players. The Combine will tell us more.

And if Polite becomes Lawrence Taylor, or if Sweat becomes Aaron Donald I take them over any of the guys you listed. That's how you know they're premium.

Even more teams would regret passing on them

[pacman5252]

5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

It's not a strawman.  It's proving an argument using the most extreme possible so there's no room for any confusion.  Everyone would argue that a QB is more valuable than a P.   A LT is more valuable than a LG, so on and so forth.  We actually had this same discussion last year with regards to Nelson.  We had a real discussion about whether or not if Nelson was on the board when the Packers picked at 14 should they take him?

You are purposely misrepresenting the argument (for taking a wr, te, ilb) being used by creating a position that isn’t really real (happened 1 time in 12 years). That is pretty fallacious.

[pacman5252]

5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

You and I have WAY different definitions of a way blue chip prospect is.  A blue chip prospect is our elite of the elite prospects.  Neither Hock, nor Metcalf, nor White are blue chip prospects.  Do you think Hock is an elite TE?  No.  Do you think Metcalf is an elite WR?  No.  Do you think Devin White is an elite ILB?  None of them are what I'd even come close to considering an elite prospect.

Using the definitions of;

Elite- could be a top 5 player at position in 2-3 years

Blue chip- immediate impact player, should start immediately with pb potential 

Red chip- should contribute right away, might start by end of year 1, and has high upside

Metcalf- pretty easy argument, if it wasn’t for the injury  he would have been a top 5 pick (elite prospect). Assuming he runs well (4.4s),  6’4” 240 with after catch ability puts legitimately puts him in the the legit most gifted physically wr in the league discussion... probably the best tools since Mike Evans.

Hockenson- ready to play TE with tools and is most complete te to enter the draft since maybe Shockey?  With teams running more 12 personnel TE is more valuable too 

White- This is the prospect who I don’t think is the best out of the 3, but he would be a starting 3 down lb from day 1. In a league where top end Ds are scheming up pressure (see NE, who’s most productive edge was less productive than Fackrell). He’d come in and be s productive piece, and add pass rush

The argument for not taking Polite/Burns- They are twitch rushers, but how close are they to playing? Burns and Polite played in the 230s last year. They probably aren’t day one starters which puts them as red chip prospects. We don’t know how they’ll play at 250/260, which adds projection fog (we’ve seen many undersized project edges who got drafted high and sucked)

I’d still personally rather have Polite/Burns over White and probably Hock, but I get the argument for passing. The default argument for saying they’d be bad picks since they aren’t valuable is a little off based.

[Kepler]

17 hours ago, JBURGE said:

Why?

Pre combine, with doing minimal tape study just watching some highlight cuts and a couple cuts...  if someone were to say the elite prospects in this draft are:

• Quinnen Williams
• Nick Bosa
• Josh Allen
• Ed Oliver
• DK Metcalf
• Devin White

Which as of today, would probably be close to my list, there is always an argument to take the final top tier prospect over the next tier. We don't know what will happen in FA, but if we get a safety and a starting caliber edge, would the positional value push Ferrell, Polite, Burns, Wilkins or Dexter Lawrence above? I dunno. I don't understand how it's always so cut and dry. 

Personally, I would rather have Martinez and take a premium position, but I don't think it's necessarily wrong to want to take White if they have him a grade above whoever else is there

Sure. IF someone were to say those were the elite prospects..... White is not elite however.

[JBURGE]

1 hour ago, Kepler said:

Sure. IF someone were to say those were the elite prospects..... White is not elite however.

Fair enough. I'm not ready to say he is until the combine is done and I actually watch more of him. 

[JBURGE]

Would have been so cool if we had the 4th pick by losing to Atlanta and the Jets, but what are some people's thoughts on trading 12, 30 and a 2020 2nd to move up to 2 to draft either Quinnen or Bosa? Better yet, if someone moves up into the top 3 to get a QB, moving to 4 to get one of Quinnen, Bosa or Allen?

[Arthur Penske]

Obviously this has little baring on how they will be as NFL WRs but damn they’re yoked

 

 

[squire12]

3 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

Would have been so cool if we had the 4th pick by losing to Atlanta and the Jets, but what are some people's thoughts on trading 12, 30 and a 2020 2nd to move up to 2 to draft either Quinnen or Bosa? Better yet, if someone moves up into the top 3 to get a QB, moving to 4 to get one of Quinnen, Bosa or Allen?

You mean that ATL and Jets win was awesome for moral and screwed GB out of a prime opportunity to add real top tier talent?  Now I need a drink!!!!

If Gute felt that 1 of those players was an absolute game changing, can't miss player, I would consider it.  Would require some holes to be filled via FA at other positions.  Safety, DL, TE, OL need to be addressed somehow

[vegas492]

16 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

Would have been so cool if we had the 4th pick by losing to Atlanta and the Jets, but what are some people's thoughts on trading 12, 30 and a 2020 2nd to move up to 2 to draft either Quinnen or Bosa? Better yet, if someone moves up into the top 3 to get a QB, moving to 4 to get one of Quinnen, Bosa or Allen?

I've thought about that...moving up namely for Josh Allen.  As a true fan who wants a high impact rookie?  I'm all for it.

If I take a step back and look at the team as a whole?  I get nervous, because there are a lot of holes to be filled, more than just an EDGE.  So that is where I say, no.  Too many holes and with this draft capital, we should be able to land 3-4 starters out of this draft that would help us more than one impact rookie.

[rcon14]

1 hour ago, JBURGE said:

Would have been so cool if we had the 4th pick by losing to Atlanta and the Jets, but what are some people's thoughts on trading 12, 30 and a 2020 2nd to move up to 2 to draft either Quinnen or Bosa? Better yet, if someone moves up into the top 3 to get a QB, moving to 4 to get one of Quinnen, Bosa or Allen?

So we could get to 4 with 12 and our 2nd it looks like (according to trade value chart), which, if one of Quinnen, Bosa, or Allen is there, it's not a BAD idea. It's tough for me to say too much yet because the combine has yet to occur, but it's a scenario work having in the back of your mind right now.

[MacReady]

Hell, considering we have a second first round pick, if all it took to get from 12 to 4 was our second round pick and 12th overall, I'd throw in our 4th round pick as a courtesy.