2019 Draft Discussion

[MacReady]

A little preview of something I've said I'd work on.  Looking for advice on how to best present this information, and what measures I should take to address some obvious faults with it.  I'm only 70% trying to prove one of my own points with this information, but also seeing if there's anything else you can tell or predict from this information. 

It is the average draft position for team rosters.  I am planning on comparing the top four teams each year with the bottom four teams each year.  I believe it will show several things: 

I believe it will show a trend in positional value.
I believe it will show that you need talent to compete (obviously, but I feel like even busts have impacts)
I believe you need to invest more heavily into defense than offense to win or compete for Super Bowls. 

I did not factor in IR.
I combined interior offensive linemen into one category (Center, Guard)
Undrafted = 260
*How did they acquire this talent?  
*How many did they have on the roster (for averages)

I still think it provides a good deal of insight into the talent levels needed.  Just off this brief preview, the Jets averaged 11 picks behind the Saints offensively, 24 picks behind the Chiefs offensively.  They averaged 38 picks (0ver a full round) behind the Saints defensively, 36 picks behind the Chiefs defensively.  

I think just as easily as this could shine light on what’s needed to win Super Bowls and go deep into the playoffs, it could be a very effective determining factor in season trajectory for each team.  So far, it’s proving what I thought it would prove.  You need more talent on defense than offense.  I think this will become glaringly obvious with each new team I add.  

Before I spend hours doing this, I’m asking for opinions on how to address the faults with this information.  

Saints 2018:  

Offense: 153 overall average
Defense: 131 overall average

QB - 32, 32, 260 (108)
RB - 28, 67, 236 (110)
FB - 260 (260)
WR - 260, 9, 260, 260, 91, 47 (155)
TE - 260, 260, 32, 260 (203)
OT - 75, 214, 32 (107)
IOL - 125, 13, 65, 245, 260, 49 (126)

DE/EDGE - 14, 103, 24, 103, 108 (70)
DL - 154, 120, 260, 260 (199)
ILB - 76, 77, 148, 260, 38 (120)
CB - 10, 260, 260, 11, 66, 78 (114)
S - 260, 244, 61, 42 (152)

Chiefs 2018:

Offense (26) - (140)
Defense (23) - (133)

QB - 57, 10 (34)
FB - 136 (136)
HB - 194, 260, 260, 260 (244)
WR - 28, 76, 260, 165, 260, 126, 4 (131)
TE - 260, 63, 260 (194)
IOL - 44, 200, 19, 198, 49, 260, 222 (142)
OT - 1, 37, 260 (99)

DL: 86, 260, 37, 75, 260 (144)
EDGE - 23, 70, 59, 46, 260 (92)
ILB - 119, 260, 100, 41 (130)
S - 5, 204, 106, 260 (144)
CB - 84, 98, 143, 196, 260 (156)

Jets 2018:  

Offense (22) - 164
Defense (27) - 169

QB - 3, 81, 87 (57)
RB - 204, 203, 188, (198)
WR - 260, 260, 260, 260, 241, 88, (228)
TE - 107, 150, 68 (108)
OT - 248, 260, 260 (256)
IOL - 260, 137, 78, 72 (137)

DL - 93, 180, 70, 260, 260, 72, 260, 6 (150)
EDGE - 80, 260, 83, (141)
ILB - 260, 260, 260, 151, 260 (238)
S - 6, 79, 260, 260, (151)
CB - 197, 65, 204, 179, 247, 133, 137 (166)

 

Also, looking at this, I wouldn't rule out the Jets taking an offensive player (either OT or WR) to help Darnold. 

[squire12]

11 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

A little preview of something I've said I'd work on.  Looking for advice on how to best present this information, and what measures I should take to address some obvious faults with it.  I'm only 70% trying to prove one of my own points with this information, but also seeing if there's anything else you can tell or predict from this information. 

It is the average draft position for team rosters.  I am planning on comparing the top four teams each year with the bottom four teams each year.  I believe it will show several things: 

I believe it will show a trend in positional value.
I believe it will show that you need talent to compete (obviously, but I feel like even busts have impacts)
I believe you need to invest more heavily into defense than offense to win or compete for Super Bowls. 

I did not factor in IR.
I combined interior offensive linemen into one category (Center, Guard)
Undrafted = 260
*How did they acquire this talent?  
*How many did they have on the roster (for averages)

I still think it provides a good deal of insight into the talent levels needed.  Just off this brief preview, the Jets averaged 11 picks behind the Saints offensively, 24 picks behind the Chiefs offensively.  They averaged 38 picks (0ver a full round) behind the Saints defensively, 36 picks behind the Chiefs defensively.  

I think just as easily as this could shine light on what’s needed to win Super Bowls and go deep into the playoffs, it could be a very effective determining factor in season trajectory for each team.  So far, it’s proving what I thought it would prove.  You need more talent on defense than offense.  I think this will become glaringly obvious with each new team I add.  

Before I spend hours doing this, I’m asking for opinions on how to address the faults with this information.  

Saints 2018:  

Offense: 153 overall average
Defense: 131 overall average

QB - 32, 32, 260 (108)
RB - 28, 67, 236 (110)
FB - 260 (260)
WR - 260, 9, 260, 260, 91, 47 (155)
TE - 260, 260, 32, 260 (203)
OT - 75, 214, 32 (107)
IOL - 125, 13, 65, 245, 260, 49 (126)

DE/EDGE - 14, 103, 24, 103, 108 (70)
DL - 154, 120, 260, 260 (199)
ILB - 76, 77, 148, 260, 38 (120)
CB - 10, 260, 260, 11, 66, 78 (114)
S - 260, 244, 61, 42 (152)

Chiefs 2018:

Offense (26) - (140)
Defense (23) - (133)

QB - 57, 10 (34)
FB - 136 (136)
HB - 194, 260, 260, 260 (244)
WR - 28, 76, 260, 165, 260, 126, 4 (131)
TE - 260, 63, 260 (194)
IOL - 44, 200, 19, 198, 49, 260, 222 (142)
OT - 1, 37, 260 (99)

DL: 86, 260, 37, 75, 260 (144)
EDGE - 23, 70, 59, 46, 260 (92)
ILB - 119, 260, 100, 41 (130)
S - 5, 204, 106, 260 (144)
CB - 84, 98, 143, 196, 260 (156)

Jets 2018:  

Offense (22) - 164
Defense (27) - 169

QB - 3, 81, 87 (57)
RB - 204, 203, 188, (198)
WR - 260, 260, 260, 260, 241, 88, (228)
TE - 107, 150, 68 (108)
OT - 248, 260, 260 (256)
IOL - 260, 137, 78, 72 (137)

DL - 93, 180, 70, 260, 260, 72, 260, 6 (150)
EDGE - 80, 260, 83, (141)
ILB - 260, 260, 260, 151, 260 (238)
S - 6, 79, 260, 260, (151)
CB - 197, 65, 204, 179, 247, 133, 137 (166)

 

Also, looking at this, I wouldn't rule out the Jets taking an offensive player (either OT or WR) to help Darnold. 

I think to be able to draw conclusions about how draft position relates to team success, you need to consider snap played in some fashion.  Adding an UDFA  4th RB or 6th WR that played 5% of the teams snaps in blowout garbage time would skew the data.

[MacReady]

Just now, squire12 said:

I think to be able to draw conclusions about how draft position relates to team success, you need to consider snap played in some fashion.  Adding an UDFA  4th RB or 6th WR that played 5% of the teams snaps in blowout garbage time would skew the data.

I appreciate the advice, but I don't think that's important due to it averaging out among teams.  For the most part, depth players will play special teams, and if not, I think the 3rd/4th RB or 5th/6th WR etc will even out. 

I was worried about that with teams who have something like 5 tight ends or something, but based on the first  three teams, it looks like they average out to similar numbers. 

For example, the Saints had 4 tight ends and three running backs while the Chiefs had 4 running backs and three tight ends.  I think that 7th player will average out to be, effectively, a special teams player or roster spot filler. 

[Packerraymond]

41 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

A little preview of something I've said I'd work on.  Looking for advice on how to best present this information, and what measures I should take to address some obvious faults with it.  I'm only 70% trying to prove one of my own points with this information, but also seeing if there's anything else you can tell or predict from this information. 

It is the average draft position for team rosters.  I am planning on comparing the top four teams each year with the bottom four teams each year.  I believe it will show several things: 

I believe it will show a trend in positional value.
I believe it will show that you need talent to compete (obviously, but I feel like even busts have impacts)
I believe you need to invest more heavily into defense than offense to win or compete for Super Bowls. 

I did not factor in IR.
I combined interior offensive linemen into one category (Center, Guard)
Undrafted = 260
*How did they acquire this talent?  
*How many did they have on the roster (for averages)

I still think it provides a good deal of insight into the talent levels needed.  Just off this brief preview, the Jets averaged 11 picks behind the Saints offensively, 24 picks behind the Chiefs offensively.  They averaged 38 picks (0ver a full round) behind the Saints defensively, 36 picks behind the Chiefs defensively.  

I think just as easily as this could shine light on what’s needed to win Super Bowls and go deep into the playoffs, it could be a very effective determining factor in season trajectory for each team.  So far, it’s proving what I thought it would prove.  You need more talent on defense than offense.  I think this will become glaringly obvious with each new team I add.  

Before I spend hours doing this, I’m asking for opinions on how to address the faults with this information.  

Saints 2018:  

Offense: 153 overall average
Defense: 131 overall average

QB - 32, 32, 260 (108)
RB - 28, 67, 236 (110)
FB - 260 (260)
WR - 260, 9, 260, 260, 91, 47 (155)
TE - 260, 260, 32, 260 (203)
OT - 75, 214, 32 (107)
IOL - 125, 13, 65, 245, 260, 49 (126)

DE/EDGE - 14, 103, 24, 103, 108 (70)
DL - 154, 120, 260, 260 (199)
ILB - 76, 77, 148, 260, 38 (120)
CB - 10, 260, 260, 11, 66, 78 (114)
S - 260, 244, 61, 42 (152)

Chiefs 2018:

Offense (26) - (140)
Defense (23) - (133)

QB - 57, 10 (34)
FB - 136 (136)
HB - 194, 260, 260, 260 (244)
WR - 28, 76, 260, 165, 260, 126, 4 (131)
TE - 260, 63, 260 (194)
IOL - 44, 200, 19, 198, 49, 260, 222 (142)
OT - 1, 37, 260 (99)

DL: 86, 260, 37, 75, 260 (144)
EDGE - 23, 70, 59, 46, 260 (92)
ILB - 119, 260, 100, 41 (130)
S - 5, 204, 106, 260 (144)
CB - 84, 98, 143, 196, 260 (156)

Jets 2018:  

Offense (22) - 164
Defense (27) - 169

QB - 3, 81, 87 (57)
RB - 204, 203, 188, (198)
WR - 260, 260, 260, 260, 241, 88, (228)
TE - 107, 150, 68 (108)
OT - 248, 260, 260 (256)
IOL - 260, 137, 78, 72 (137)

DL - 93, 180, 70, 260, 260, 72, 260, 6 (150)
EDGE - 80, 260, 83, (141)
ILB - 260, 260, 260, 151, 260 (238)
S - 6, 79, 260, 260, (151)
CB - 197, 65, 204, 179, 247, 133, 137 (166)

 

Also, looking at this, I wouldn't rule out the Jets taking an offensive player (either OT or WR) to help Darnold. 

For the amount of effort this will take, don't think you'll end up with data that tells you much of anything. Putting draft capital into premium positions doesn't mean anything if those players aren't good.  Just ask the current Packers. 

[MacReady]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

For the amount of effort this will take, don't think you'll end up with data that tells you much of anything. Putting draft capital into premium positions doesn't mean anything if those players aren't good.  Just ask the current Packers. 

I disagree, and it's based on the way the Patriots operate. 

This is how I'm going to lead with the presentation of the information I collect: 
 

Quote

 

Watching the Patriots Dynasty over the years, I’ve come to conclude that talent is talent when it comes to draft position.  There are a lot of busts.  Some for health, others for other reasons, but I have come to believe that the best coaches get the talent out of players for where they were drafted and use the talents that got them drafted to best fit their defense.  Kyle Van Noy is an excellent example.  He was drafted relatively high since he had the right blend of physical and mental talent to get him drafted that high.  Expectations in Detroit were not met, so he got traded to the Patriots, where he was asked only to do his job (this is something you FREQUENTLY hear Patriots coaches and players repeat ad nauseum).  Since joining the Patriots, Van Noy has quietly been having a hell of a career.  He went from having 1 career sack in two and a half years in Detroit with 0 interceptions to having 10 sacks, 2 interceptions and a knack for HUGE plays in two and a half years in New England.  

The Rams Super Bowl win was what finally convinced me.  Every single year you watch a Patriots defense that seemingly has no star players, no elite talents, early games where it looks like they’re a bottom 5 defense and then they turn it around completely and totally and become the quietest dominant defense ever.  They don’t rack up monster sack numbers, monster turnover numbers or anything… They just stop offenses.  How?  

Belichick is an absolute master at acquiring talent that is misused on other teams and turning that talent into an effective cog in a well-oiled machine where 11 players do their job - and only their job - and become collectively a consistently efficient defense.  

Since we’re a few years removed from their last cheating scandal, I have to look for other answers.  I believe the answer to the Patriots success is acquiring talent and putting that talent into the best position to have success based on their talent and what they can do, not what you’d necessarily want them to do.  

To see if there’s anything to this, I have gone through the past ten years of football.  For each year, I collected the draft position of every player on a team to compare that draft position between the top four teams and the bottom four teams to see if there’s any correlation. 

 

I am going to add a disclaimer that it doesn't matter unless the coach is capable of putting that talent in a position that best suits what the player can do not for himself, but for his team.

Effort has a lot to do with it, but low effort players don't typically stick around.  Van Noy is a player that, whenever I watch the Patriots, ALWAYS has a MAJOR contribution to the game.  Every single time I watch the Patriots, he is making a monster play that doesn't always turn up on the stat sheet. 

[squire12]

How are you accounting NE draft capital with Van Noy?

[MacReady]

38 minutes ago, squire12 said:

How are you accounting NE draft capital with Van Noy?

Like I said, it's purely where players were drafted.  It's about the talent on a team, not what it takes to get them.  Van Noy is a second rounder for New England.  

Think of it this way, don't you think Clay Matthews would have had a significantly better past three years in New England than he's had here?  

It has a lot of flaws to it, I admit.  How old is the player?  How healthy?  How good was the coach, etc...

I still believe it will show A LOT.  Just think of the Jets.  They've been drafting top 16 for a good 5 years now, and yet they have significantly less draft capital on their team than the Saints or Chiefs, who have been drafting in the 20-30 range the past five years.  How is that possible?  Bad GM?  Bad cap management?  Bad drafting, thus letting busts retire or go elsewhere or failing to re-sign them?  

Regardless of whether or not this shows what I want it to, I'm confident it will show something from which conclusions can be drawn.

[squire12]

10 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Like I said, it's purely where players were drafted.  It's about the talent on a team, not what it takes to get them.  Van Noy is a second rounder for New England.  

Think of it this way, don't you think Clay Matthews would have had a significantly better past three years in New England than he's had here?  

It has a lot of flaws to it, I admit.  How old is the player?  How healthy?  How good was the coach, etc...

I still believe it will show A LOT.  Just think of the Jets.  They've been drafting top 16 for a good 5 years now, and yet they have significantly less draft capital on their team than the Saints or Chiefs, who have been drafting in the 20-30 range the past five years.  How is that possible?  Bad GM?  Bad cap management?  Bad drafting, thus letting busts retire or go elsewhere or failing to re-sign them?  

Regardless of whether or not this shows what I want it to, I'm confident it will show something from which conclusions can be drawn.

NE did not invest a 2nd round pick to acquire Van Noy.  That process is flawed .

Maybe I am just not really sure what you are looking to show.

If it is that having more talent on a roster leads to more team success in terms of wins and losses, playoffs and titles, that seems fundamentally intuitive.

[MacReady]

Just now, squire12 said:

Maybe I am just not really sure what you are looking to show.

Offense versus Defense, OL versus DL, OT versus EDGE, positional value, overall talent acquisition (regardless of how it's acquired). 

Quote

 

If it is that having more talent on a roster leads to more team success in terms of wins and losses, playoffs and titles, that seems fundamentally intuitive.

 

But not around here.  People seem to think there's more than one way to build Super Bowl competitors.  They seem to think drafting offense or acquiring offense over defense, spending money or draft picks on offense is similar to investing in the defense. 

My main goal in this is to show how much more important defense is than offense.  It is also meant to show that we have not, actually, invested enough in defense. 

A lot of people here seem to think that, since we've drafted defense first for a number of years, it might be a good idea to invest in offense first, or maybe WR or TE or a skill position player. 

I aim to prove that's not true.  The Patriots have more talent (draft position) on defense than we do.  The Patriots this year had 5 first round defensive players, a fourth two second round picks as major starters on defense.  Even if you count Wilkerson, we had only 5 first round picks as starters, too.  If you add Clinton-Dix, that's six, but heading into next season...

If we lose Matthews, Perry and Wilkerson, we have two first round picks on defense.  Two.  That is not acceptable. 

We need to add talent on defense if we want our defense to be talented. 

Wilkerson was a great addition in theory.  First round talent. 

I mean, our safeties right now... We currently have 3 undrafted safeties (one of which is old AF) and a second round pick.  People wonder why our defense sucked.  At undrafted, they probably aren't physically capable of doing what an NFL safety should probably be able to do without being a liability. 

 

 

[Golfman]

I'm warming to the idea of trading down in this draft. I have a bad feeling the board for EDGE rushers is going to be wrecked at 12. Raiders sitting at 24, 27 and R2#3 might be a nice dance partner. #27 and R2#3 are close in value. 

That extra pick might afford us the ability to grab Simmons with one of our top 3-4 picks and still get some real talent to go with it. 

[squire12]

5 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Offense versus Defense, OL versus DL, OT versus EDGE, positional value, overall talent acquisition (regardless of how it's acquired). 

But not around here.  People seem to think there's more than one way to build Super Bowl competitors.  They seem to think drafting offense or acquiring offense over defense, spending money or draft picks on offense is similar to investing in the defense. 

My main goal in this is to show how much more important defense is than offense.  It is also meant to show that we have not, actually, invested enough in defense. 

A lot of people here seem to think that, since we've drafted defense first for a number of years, it might be a good idea to invest in offense first, or maybe WR or TE or a skill position player. 

I aim to prove that's not true.  The Patriots have more talent (draft position) on defense than we do.  The Patriots this year had 5 first round defensive players, a fourth two second round picks as major starters on defense.  Even if you count Wilkerson, we had only 5 first round picks as starters, too.  If you add Clinton-Dix, that's six, but heading into next season...

If we lose Matthews, Perry and Wilkerson, we have two first round picks on defense.  Two.  That is not acceptable. 

We need to add talent on defense if we want our defense to be talented. 

Wilkerson was a great addition in theory.  First round talent. 

I mean, our safeties right now... We currently have 3 undrafted safeties (one of which is old AF) and a second round pick.  People wonder why our defense sucked.  At undrafted, they probably aren't physically capable of doing what an NFL safety should probably be able to do without being a liability. 

 

 

GB day 1 starters vs CHI.

5 firsts

2 seconds

1 4th

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201809090gnb.htm#all_vis_starters

Since 2010, GB has used 16 of 24 picks on defense in rounds 1, 2 and 3.  How is that not enough draft capital investment? 

[ChaRisMa]

If you are trying to draw ANY information out of past drafts, prepare to be disappointed. There is no rhyme or reason behind any of it. Take the guy you like best. The data doesn’t support anything, ever, other than that QBs, Ts, and Edge guys go quick.

[moretti19]

Watched film on some guys today that have been discussed here:

Brian Burns: REALLY like him and will be thrilled if he is there for our pick.

Clelin Ferrell: Honestly reminds me of a longer Brandon Graham. Going to be a good player I just don't know if he has the elite capability as Burns.

Irv Smith: My number 1 tight end, guy looks like a complete stud. 

1A: Bruns/Ferrell then Smith with 1B would be amazing.

[MacReady]

1 hour ago, squire12 said:

GB day 1 starters vs CHI.

5 firsts

2 seconds

1 4th

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201809090gnb.htm#all_vis_starters

Since 2010, GB has used 16 of 24 picks on defense in rounds 1, 2 and 3.  How is that not enough draft capital investment? 

Yeah, that was week 1.  By week 9 we were down to 3 firsts, and two of them were Matthews and Perry, whom we will be losing.

Dont care how much we've drafted, I care how much we have.  We don't have enough.

[ChaRisMa]

If you are trying to draw ANY information out of past drafts, prepare to be disappointed. There is no rhyme or reason behind any of it. Take the guy you like best. The data doesn’t support anything, ever, other than that QBs, Ts, and Edge guys go quick.