2019 Draft Discussion

[packfanfb]

2 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I guarandamntee the Bengals are taking that TE or White.  It's in their DNA.  The Lions might even take Hock.  

Been thinking this for a while. I'll be surprised at this point if the Lions don't take Hock. They have a major need at TE and all the "Hock is the next Gronk" talk is going to lead to Patricia pushing hard for him I think. 

[Fl0nkerton]

15 hours ago, Cheech said:

No. 5 on his big board.  Yup, he also has a RB as his No. 6.  So his whole board must suck, right?

 

😂😂😂

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, packfanfb said:

Been thinking this for a while. I'll be surprised at this point if the Lions don't take Hock. They have a major need at TE and all the "Hock is the next Gronk" talk is going to lead to Patricia pushing hard for him I think. 

I agree.  But that team needs a ton of talent.  I can see them going Greedy at corner or an EDGE rusher, too.  Lots of holes to fill over there.  But yah, that Patricia/Gronk/Hock thing is interesting to think about.

As far as "Team DNA" goes...that is why I think White doesn't make it past the Bengals.

[ThatJerkDave]

7 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

Draft Machine Mock:

 

172. Connor McGovern

181.Terry Beckner

204. Shareef Miller

 

Still kinda throwing darts after round 4, but I am okay with that.

Getting Beckner that late would be awesome.

 

Also, if there really are football gods, they will make Connor McGovern be drafted by the Broncos, and have their starting guard tandem be Connor McGovern and Connor McGovern.

[SSG]

20 hours ago, CWood21 said:

How many times have we seen a guy with elite measurables and mediocre production throughout college hit big in the NFL?  It happens, but not very often.  How many times have we seen elite athletes with mediocre production flop in the NFL?  A LOT.  It goes on and on.  There's just way too much risk involved for me to even consider him at 12.  And it's probably going to be the case at 30.

 

It happens extremely often when it comes to pass rushers.  

• JJ Watt had 11.5 career sacks in college. 
• Frank Clark had 11 career sacks in 4 years at Michigan. 
• Danielle Hunter had 4.5 career sacks at his 3 years at LSU. 
• Chandler Jones had 10 sacks in 3 years at Syracuse.  
• Jason Pierre- Paul had 6 sacks in college.
• Cameron Jordan had 16.5 sacks in 4 years at Cal, never having more than 6 in a season
• Olivier Vernon had 9 career sacks in 3 years at the U
• Cliff Avril had 12.5 sacks in 3 years at Purdue
• Clay Matthews had 5.5 sacks in 4 years at USC
• Michael Bennett had 6.5 sacks in his 4 years at TAM with his most productive season being his 3.5 sack Freshman year.
• Geno Atkins had 11 career sacks in his 4 years at Georgia
• Cameron Wake only had 8.5 sacks in college

[ReadyToThump]

40 minutes ago, SSG said:

 

It happens extremely often when it comes to pass rushers.  

• JJ Watt had 11.5 career sacks in college. 
• Frank Clark had 11 career sacks in 4 years at Michigan. 
• Danielle Hunter had 4.5 career sacks at his 3 years at LSU. 
• Chandler Jones had 10 sacks in 3 years at Syracuse.  
• Jason Pierre- Paul had 6 sacks in college.
• Cameron Jordan had 16.5 sacks in 4 years at Cal, never having more than 6 in a season
• Olivier Vernon had 9 career sacks in 3 years at the U
• Cliff Avril had 12.5 sacks in 3 years at Purdue
• Clay Matthews had 5.5 sacks in 4 years at USC
• Michael Bennett had 6.5 sacks in his 4 years at TAM with his most productive season being his 3.5 sack Freshman year.
• Geno Atkins had 11 career sacks in his 4 years at Georgia
• Cameron Wake only had 8.5 sacks in college

This is interesting. Real interesting. 

[squire12]

58 minutes ago, SSG said:

 

It happens extremely often when it comes to pass rushers.  

• JJ Watt had 11.5 career sacks in college. 
• Frank Clark had 11 career sacks in 4 years at Michigan. 
• Danielle Hunter had 4.5 career sacks at his 3 years at LSU. 
• Chandler Jones had 10 sacks in 3 years at Syracuse.  
• Jason Pierre- Paul had 6 sacks in college.
• Cameron Jordan had 16.5 sacks in 4 years at Cal, never having more than 6 in a season
• Olivier Vernon had 9 career sacks in 3 years at the U
• Cliff Avril had 12.5 sacks in 3 years at Purdue
• Clay Matthews had 5.5 sacks in 4 years at USC
• Michael Bennett had 6.5 sacks in his 4 years at TAM with his most productive season being his 3.5 sack Freshman year.
• Geno Atkins had 11 career sacks in his 4 years at Georgia
• Cameron Wake only had 8.5 sacks in college

Well...this does not fit the agenda, so it should be disregarded

[packfanfb]

IF the Packers don't resign Breeland, you wonder if CB is in play for No. 12. Two possible candidates in Greedy & Murphy. 

 

 

[rcon14]

24 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

IF the Packers don't resign Breeland, you wonder if CB is in play for No. 12. Two possible candidates in Greedy & Murphy. 

 

 

I'd be very surprised. Very very surprised.

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, SSG said:

 

It happens extremely often when it comes to pass rushers.  

• JJ Watt had 11.5 career sacks in college. 
• Frank Clark had 11 career sacks in 4 years at Michigan. 
• Danielle Hunter had 4.5 career sacks at his 3 years at LSU. 
• Chandler Jones had 10 sacks in 3 years at Syracuse.  
• Jason Pierre- Paul had 6 sacks in college.
• Cameron Jordan had 16.5 sacks in 4 years at Cal, never having more than 6 in a season
• Olivier Vernon had 9 career sacks in 3 years at the U
• Cliff Avril had 12.5 sacks in 3 years at Purdue
• Clay Matthews had 5.5 sacks in 4 years at USC
• Michael Bennett had 6.5 sacks in his 4 years at TAM with his most productive season being his 3.5 sack Freshman year.
• Geno Atkins had 11 career sacks in his 4 years at Georgia
• Cameron Wake only had 8.5 sacks in college

Sacks really aren't a reliable stat to judge a pass rusher in whether or not they're getting pressure on a QB.  TFL is a better indicator.  In Gary's last 2 seasons at Michigan, he's had 18 TFL.  Watt had 36.5 TFL, Clark had 25.5 TFL, Danielle Hunter had 21 TFL, Chandler Jones had 18, JPP had 16.5 in his lone season with USF, Cameron Jordan had 22 TFL, Olivier Vernon had 14 TFL (in 19 games), Avril had 30 TFL, and Geno Atkins (a DT) had 18 TFL.  That lack of production is a red flag.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, squire12 said:

Well...this does not fit the agenda, so it should be disregarded

No.  While SSG didn't essentially try and prove me wrong, he left out the key regards about being an elite athlete with mediocre production.  In terms of production, Gary was closest to Frank Clark, Danielle Hunter, Chandler Jones, and Oliver Vernon.  I wouldn't really say any of those guys were freak athletes.  JJ Watt was a freak athlete, but he produced.  It might not have turned into sacks, but the TFL were there.  Same thing with JPP in his one season with USF.  Freak athlete, and produced.  IF Gary truly is the freak athlete that people are making him out to be (and I'm taking the wait and see approach).  Hunter is probably the closest to what we are describing.

[66fan]

Any thoughts or opinions on Tony Pollard from Memphis?  Has played RB/WR/KR.  One of the top KR in college football with 6 returns for TD's in his career.  Looks to be a fifth to sixth round pick.  Maybe a choice for number 3 RB while returning kicks.  Did not have a lot of carries so should have a lot of life left on him.  

[Dubz41]

16 minutes ago, 66fan said:

Any thoughts or opinions on Tony Pollard from Memphis?  Has played RB/WR/KR.  One of the top KR in college football with 6 returns for TD's in his career.  Looks to be a fifth to sixth round pick.  Maybe a choice for number 3 RB while returning kicks.  Did not have a lot of carries so should have a lot of life left on him.  

Looked at him a little.  Interesting, but he drops the ball a lot.  Otherwise he would fit a Tevon Coleman kind of role.

[JBURGE]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Sacks really aren't a reliable stat to judge a pass rusher in whether or not they're getting pressure on a QB.  TFL is a better indicator.  In Gary's last 2 seasons at Michigan, he's had 18 TFL.  Watt had 36.5 TFL, Clark had 25.5 TFL, Danielle Hunter had 21 TFL, Chandler Jones had 18, JPP had 16.5 in his lone season with USF, Cameron Jordan had 22 TFL, Olivier Vernon had 14 TFL (in 19 games), Avril had 30 TFL, and Geno Atkins (a DT) had 18 TFL.  That lack of production is a red flag.

Did you just say that Gary had a similar amount of TFL in his last 2 seasons as Hunter, Chandler Jones, Cameron Jordan, and Vernon and then said his lack of production is a concern? Or were those individual season amounts for those players.

[Chili]

Packersnews made some very good eye opening points regarding our new offensive blocking scheme. I have highlighted some excerpts from the article. Based on this information the outside zone scheme I think it will directly influence the direction we will take in the draft.

Quote

“(The outside zone) basically sets up everything,” said Adam Stenavich, LaFleur’s offensive line coach and a Shanahan assistant with the San Francisco 49ers the last two years. “All the different blocking combinations and schemes, everything is tied into it. If you can make that go, then everything else opens up off of it.”

LaFleur’s offense goes directly back to the Mike Shanahan-Alex Gibbs scheme of the 1990s. Mike Shanahan, Kyle’s father, married the West Coast offense with Gibbs’ zone-blocking scheme and won two Super Bowls with an aging John Elway at quarterback. In Elway’s four seasons in the scheme, the Broncos finished in the top five in rushing every year and top five in scoring three times.

NFL offenses have evolved since, but Kyle Shanahan has kept the flame alive by building his more passing-oriented offense around the same outside zone run.

McVay, likewise, runs the same scheme with the Los Angeles Rams, though with an important difference and LaFleur ran it last year as the Tennessee Titans’ offensive coordinator.

Without getting too lost in the weeds, we should start with a quick primer on the zone running scheme, which has two basic runs: inside zone and outside zone.

On both, offensive linemen come off the snap in unison like a chorus line, to the right or left, and are responsible for blocking an area.

On the inside zone, the ball carrier’s landmark is usually the gap between the guard and tackle. He either has to hit that gap or cut back to the biggest open lane. When you’ve seen Packers running back Aaron Jones take a handoff and hit a big run by cutting to the backside after only a step or two, it probably was an inside zone.

The outside zone is slower developing, because the back’s aiming point is usually the outside leg of the tight end. The runner has to be patient until he gets to that width, then decide whether try to make the corner or plant his foot and hit the nearest gap up field.

The reason the outside zone meshes with the passing game, at least when it’s working, is that it’s a slow-developing run. The line moves laterally in unison while the quarterback takes a longer path to the handoff with the ball extended for the defense to see. That holds the play-action fake an extra tick or two, which gives receivers more time to create separation and get downfield.

“It’s harder on the defense,” said an assistant coach from one of the 49ers’ rivals in the NFC West. “It forces the secondary to start their run-support roles faster than if it’s just a downhill run inside. That’s probably one of the biggest things people like about the outside zone.”

But for play action and bootlegs to work, the outside-zone run has to work. That takes a lot of practice time — “It’s not the easiest thing in the world to teach, (because) the running back and the offensive line have to be on the same page,” the assistant coach said — but also talent at running back.

This scheme, in fact, has produced the NFL’s leading-scoring team the last three years, and it’s no coincidence that the quarterback for each of those teams has thrived because of the quality he’s had at running back.

LaFleur inherits a good zone runner in Jones, but he’s going to need another quality back to ensure he can make life easier for Rodgers. Jones has sustained three MCL tears in his two NFL seasons, and the Packers just can’t count on him to carry a heavy load or even finish out the year.

What we don’t know is whether LaFleur’s version of the scheme will mirror Shanahan’s by making the fullback a big part of the offense, or if it will be more like the one used by McVay, who didn’t have a fullback on his roster last year.

Without a fullback, McVay predominantly plays three receivers and tries to spread the field horizontally. He liberally uses handoffs (and fakes) to receivers on jet sweeps to keep the defense spread out.

https://eu.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/dougherty/2019/02/23/dougherty-emphasis-outside-zone-run-could-reignite-packers-offense/2956309002/

It seems clear that LaFleur will demand a top tier RB in order for his scheme to succeed. He already has a excellent one in Jones but injury concerns requires us to look at bringing another one in, either through the draft or free agency. Jamaal Williams lacks the shiftiness and agility required to play in a zone scheme imo. I'm not a fan of the idea of signing Devin Coleman as I thought he sucked arse last season when he toted the rock but accept that he may be someone LaFleur could target. I don't think it makes sense for us financially to target Bell even though he is exactly the right kind of player for us.

OL will be a priority in the draft. We need to make sure we get that OL right for LaFleur.

The fact that the outside zone relies on the RB running towards the TE outside leg implies far more blocking from our TE. That's a big clue. More blocking could mean that the TE importance to the scheme as a receiver is diminished but there is a way around it. Fullbacks.

With Shanahan for example he freed up Kittle by having Juszczyk take up some of the blocking responsibilities. He did this before for Owen Daniels using Leach as the blocker at Houston and with Chris Cooley using Sellers as the blocker at Washington.

McVay however took a different approach with the Rams by using his TEs to block instead and run 3 WR sets.

My gut feeling, knowing that Rodgers likes to throw the ball to wide receivers we're more likely to adopt McVay three-wide concepts. It makes little sense to remove a receiving option in favour of incorporating a full back unless the TE is an elite receiver. Is Graham still an elite receiver? that's the big question that LaFleur needs to decide. Rodgers never really made full use of the TE over his career and I suspect that will likely continue.

LaFleur did not use a FB at Tennesee so it's likely he will choose not to incorporate a FB again in favour of having an extra receiver. This means the blocking responsibilities will have to go to someone else and that is the TE. The fact he hired Outten as TE coach implies that LaFleur plan to incorporate blocking in his TEs. The signs are pointing towards an offensive scheme that blends Shanahan outside zone blocking with McVay three wide concepts and that the TE will not be a big part of the passing offence - a bit like the Falcons 2016 offense.

If that's the case then that signals two things:

1. Jimmy Graham is a poor fit. Could he be cut?  We will find out by March 15th.

2. We WILL draft a TE early. In fact it wouldn't surprise me if we double dip in the draft. I don't think we will re-sign Kendricks and Lewis. We got other Blocking-TE options in free agency whom we could target such as Stocker, James, Boyle, O'Shaughnessy.

 

If we keep Graham that could mean one of three things:

1. More two tight end sets - we will need to be very active in FA and draft for this to work.

2. We will have a fullback next season allowing Graham to act as our 3rd receiving option.

3. Make Graham our new slot receiver.

 

So to recap, it appears that RB, OL and TE will be big priorities for us in the draft/FA. I can't believe i'm saying this but it appears in the grand scheme of things WR is not the most important issue for us atm especially considering we drafted 3 WRs last year as well as Adams and Geronimo. I think we will directly replace Cobb with Geronimo.

Yes, we do need a vertical threat to draw the safety away from the box to create space underneath for Rodgers and to avoid stacked boxes against the run. Rams had Watkins last year and Cooks this year, 49ers has Goodwin so there's a clear pattern with those type of offenses. I'm sure the same is true for all types of offenses, when Nelson was injured for the season our offense went to the dumps and we didn't even have a TE to threaten the seam either. This resulted in Rodgers struggling to get both the pass and run game going. The vertical threat is absolutely critical in opening up our offense and the good news is I think we already have some guys on our roster - MVS and EstB. I know everybody wants AB or Beckham and that would be nice but I don't see either happening. Maybe we can pick up a cheap speedy WR in the 2nd or 3rd wave of FA? John Brown? Phillip Dorsett? Chris Conley?