2018 CFB/2019 Draft Prospects

[drd23]

Oof, that 8.08 3 cone is horrific. 

I initially thought that he might be a 3rd/4th round target considering we've tried guys like Upshaw and John Simon at the LOLB spot because of their motor and run stopping ability, but even they had better testing numbers than that

[DreamKid]

1 hour ago, drd23 said:

I initially thought that he might be a 3rd/4th round target considering we've tried guys like Upshaw and John Simon at the LOLB spot because of their motor and run stopping ability, but even they had better testing numbers than that

Same. I figured the team might be looking to add a power rusher to compliment Judon, Bowser, and T-Will.

The Ravens are unique in that they prioritize athleticism, but also make exceptions for +Tape/Production guys that aren't the greatest athletes. Ferguson is guy that showed a lack of consistent bend and COD on tape, so his testing numbers are a damning correlation. Might be too much of an exception for the team to make.

[DreamKid]

 

[DreamKid]

 

[DreamKid]

 

[DreamKid]

 

[diamondbull424]

10 hours ago, Danand said:

With how insanely bad we have been at developing wide receivers - maybe worst in the league, I wouldn't bet on us developing a pure upside player in Metcalf.

DK isn’t simply a purely upside player though. He’s an elite deep threat option that gets nice separation deep from jump street. He’s a better deep threat than Hollywood Brown.

10 hours ago, Danand said:

I also question if Metcalf is the right type for Lamar Jackson.

So you doubt Lamar’s ability to throw to 9 routes and post routes? You doubt his ability to deliver the ball to a receiver with plenty of separation against his defender? Aren’t you of the position of “surround Lamar with a track team?”

11 hours ago, Danand said:

Almost everybody recognized how we had a need for upgrading the interior oline - both because LG and C can be upgraded, but also because we have to prepare for a time after Yanda.

Now its draft time, and wide receivers and Josh Jackson are more sexy picks, and people tend to forget how we get nowhere if our Oline can't play to a certain level.

Meh. I don’t know if I’ve seen any real Ravens fan wanting Josh Jackson. He seems to be more of a media creation than anything. The kind of guy that goes 2nd/3rd round in the actual draft and the media has to scramble to explain and justify why.

In terms of WRs, it’s not about sexy. It’s about success rates, track record, and opportunity cost. We’ve drafted multiple Pro Bowl talent OL players be it 1st round (Grubbs) or 3rd (Yanda) round. 2nd round (Osemele) or 5th round (Ricky Wagner). If we select a receiver in round one and two IOL in round three/four... there’s a much stronger chance that all of them end up in hits vs if we were to select an IOL early and then wait to get a receiver until the 3rd round. We literally don’t have any past indicators to point to that as being a successful strategy. If that’s the strategy then we might as well just avoid the position all together based off of past indicators. At least we have Torrey Smith as a hit that we secured in the early rounds as a success indicator.

Also, the WR situation is in much more disarray than the IOL. Along the interior if we don’t draft any player what’s so ever, we’re starting a center that’s over 24 starts in. A guard that has started the bulk of the last two seasons and both have performed at average levels. The WR situation on the other hand returns ONE (semi) starter and a large cast of unproven options that were late round picks the year prior with no professional success to point to for comfortability. Even if we acknowledge that we’ll be running the ball a lot, a deep threat would come in handy to make the run game more efficient underneath.

Lastly, simply put, I’m just not that impressed by this OL class. I would really like this current IOL class to be compared to even just last season and it’s clear how the top options aren’t on the same level as blockers.

So while it may look “fancy” the receiver position is a necessity. A deep threat is on the field for most every down and that impact opens up the offense for the QB. Thus their impact can be felt even on run downs or when passes go elsewhere. Just don’t see the value in taking an IOL in the first. I don’t see a dominant option that is an elite performer an elite athlete.

[DreamKid]

4 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

He’s an elite deep threat option that gets nice separation deep from jump street.

DK Metcalf has a 1.48 10 yard split, with a "Flying 20" of 1.80.

Torrey Smith had a 1.51 10 yard split, and a "Flying 20" of 1.93.

DK is a rare breed.

[coordinator0]

Yeah, a constant deep threat is still a big need even with the run-first offense. The team has to at least have that threat out on the field and make defenses account for it. That's important. I'm worried about Metcalf's lateral ability though. He's not going to have an easy time breaking off his route and adjust when Lamar starts scrambling. Is that a huge deal? I don't know, but it's certainly something to consider. It would be stunning if DK is available to the Ravens when they draft though so I'm not putting much thought into him.

I do like Parris Campbell a lot for the Ravens though. Not at their current pick, but the eventual trade down spot (wherever that lands 8 or so back maybe) would be fine. 

[Danand]

If we want a player because of his speed, we can't find that one-two trick pony later in the draft instead of investing our highest pick.

Also, the hits and misses on our oline is wrong. We got 1-2 good years out of Wagner, we got 1 good year out of Jensen. Matt Skura can be considered a hit because of his draft status, but is he that good? The following is our "success" with drafting olines since 2008. Our success is widely overblown, and our oline has primarily been a patchwork line with free agent aquisitions and rotation players like Jared Gaither one year, Willie Anderson 1-2 years, Matt Birk etc. We have KO and Oher as early round hits who then left in FA, and we have a combined 2-4 good seasons from the later rounds - but they served mostly as backups. The take that we just develop good offensive linemen is wrong. The truly great ones we get early in the draft, and that is what we should do instead of picking a player because he is fast. Lamar won be able to throw the deep ball when Hurst, Bozeman, Skura gets beat immediately inside. Metcalf won't quickly change direction to get open when Lamar begins to scramble.

I can get behind Lamar Jackson and a track team, as well as a group of slot receivers led by Renfrow, Lasley, Snead because they can get open in a variety of ways. 

Oniel Cousins - miss

David Hale - miss

Michael Oher – hit (relative)

Ramon Harewood - miss

Jah Reid - miss

Kelechi Osemele – hit

Gino Gradkowski – miss

Ricky Wagner – hit

Ryan Jensen – one year wonder

John Urschel – backup/hit

Robert Myers – miss

Ronnie Stanley – hit

Alex Lewis – miss

Nico Siragusa – miss

Jermaine Eluemunor – backup

Orlando Brown – hit

Greg Senat – undecided

Bozeman – undecided

Matt Skura - hit

James Hurst - hit

[diamondbull424]

How does the list look for WR?

Which when you craft such a list and find out that 8 hits is wildly better than just 1... it really puts things into perspective. Also when you look at your list and you determine that both Oher and Stanley (our first round picks) aren’t at much different of a level to Brown Jr and Wagner. Heck, one could even argue that the second tandem is better.

You could go back to the draft with Yanda and Grubbs and determine the same.

Your premise relies upon the fact that it makes more sense to draft an OL high because a) high success rate b) more talented c) more proven and d) we always go for the sexy positions.

A) While we have a higher success rate going OL higher, we also have a drastically more successful hit rate for OL than WR in the mid-rounds. Heck Jermaine Lewis is the only WR in the history of the team that I can recall having legit impact, ever. Not just the past ten years. What’s more while the hit rate (I’ll define as a pro bowl caliber play for one season) for our 1st round OL is at 100% (2/2) the hit rate of the other picks is 25%, thus 1/4 will hit at Pro Bowl level potential. Now consider that we aren’t considering Senat and Bozeman because of limited opportunities and LOA dictate that if we draft two OL, someone will hit at a high level. With multiple mid round picks, it only makes sense that we would secure at least one draft IOL and pick up an UDFA option to boot.

B) Look at the OL grades for the top IOL this year, they’re not something to write home about. Of the tape I’ve watched no one has stood out to me that has All Pro level potential. Best I’ve seen is POSSIBLY pro bowl level potential.

C) Not really. Just like WR the OL talent is very tightly clustered with little deviation in starts and accolades overall.

D) You act as though it’s an epidemic where the Ravens ALWAYS decide to pass on the OL talent for the “sexy” WR option. Chart the WR position and tell me just how many 1st round receivers we’ve taken in the past 10 years vs 1st round OL options? It’s Stanley/Oher to Perriman. Add in the 2nd round to the equation and it’s Osemele to Torrey. Add in the third round and you have a few OL but no additional receivers drafted. So if anything we should be complaining that we’re not drafting enough WRs, that our franchise isn’t “SEXY” enough. So yeah, this franchise needs to get MORE sexy if anything, not less. Especially when you consider the direction that the NFL has gone in with passing the ball.

[Danand]

I complain about everybody screaming for upgrades on oline after the season, especially after we got dominated in the trenches by 7 linebackers/defensive backs, and once we get closer to the draft, everybody is talking about grabbing Metcalf, or how special Hakeem Butler can become, or that Lamar Jackson will have to throw to an N'keal Harry/AJ Brown, Arcega-Whiteside because they have a big catch radius.

Wide receivers are complimentary pieces - especially with our scheme which to all accounts seems to rely on running the ball. Then how does it make sense to get a deep threat whose primary role will be run blocking and running deep? He will maybe get 4-6 targets a game and we most likely won't run much to the outside, so we will have to rely on that receiver to either crack or find a safety to block. 

Teams don't win by having great receivers in the playoff. They win because they control the trenches, and Metcalf doesn't help in that regard. Is he a great talent - yes, but with just as many question marks as many other receivers in the draft. 

Matt Ryan had all those nice receiving options against us last year - he couldn't do squat with it because his running game was stuffed and he had pressure in his face. Texans got nowhere when their oline was in shambles, the same with the Seahawks who had nice receiving options. A talent like Russell Wilson could run from his life and a Metcalf wouldn't help at all.

[diamondbull424]

What’s more when an OL is of high talent and we have a shot at them I call for them. I loved Frank Ragnow. If you recall I had Ragnow ranked as an All Pro level talent and ranked him similarly to Nick Chubb. I had Ragnow ahead of Calvin Ridley and most of the receivers.

I bang the drum for Derwin James because he was a transformative talent. Same with Lamar Jackson later in the process. DKM doesn’t have the same stat production, but his tape displays All Pro level talent because of his elite speed, strength, explosiveness, and length. He is so hyper elite in those measurables that his equally poor agility makes no difference. His hands are also similar to what I saw from Julio Jones coming out. Factor in DKM age score and the potential is at the same level we see with Mark Andrews.

Lamar Jackson will have time to throw to DKM because defenders will have to hold contain against him due to his speed vs being as aggressive upfield. Those hesitation moments allow Jackson more time in the pocket and more time for DKM to beat his man deep.

In 1on1 there are few corners that have the size, strength, and speed to battle DKM. Denzel award is probably the best corner in the division outside of Humphrey and his 180 lbs frame and his limited size isn’t containing DKM for an entire game.

If the defense doubles DKM with a safety that plays into our hand with using the TEs in the middle range of the field.

And again, I like JJ AW more because he’s an intermediate to deep threat with elite box out talent. I think he has lower bust potential and has just legit pro bowl potential. I have JJ AW ranked higher than every OL player except Jonah Williams (at LG).

[diamondbull424]

7 minutes ago, Danand said:

I complain about everybody screaming for upgrades on oline after the season, especially after we got dominated in the trenches by 7 linebackers/defensive backs, and once we get closer to the draft, everybody is talking about grabbing Metcalf, or how special Hakeem Butler can become, or that Lamar Jackson will have to throw to an N'keal Harry/AJ Brown, Arcega-Whiteside because they have a big catch radius.

Wide receivers are complimentary pieces - especially with our scheme which to all accounts seems to rely on running the ball. Then how does it make sense to get a deep threat whose primary role will be run blocking and running deep? He will maybe get 4-6 targets a game and we most likely won't run much to the outside, so we will have to rely on that receiver to either crack or find a safety to block. 

Teams don't win by having great receivers in the playoff. They win because they control the trenches, and Metcalf doesn't help in that regard. Is he a great talent - yes, but with just as many question marks as many other receivers in the draft. 

Matt Ryan had all those nice receiving options against us last year - he couldn't do squat with it because his running game was stuffed and he had pressure in his face. Texans got nowhere when their oline was in shambles, the same with the Seahawks who had nice receiving options. A talent like Russell Wilson could run from his life and a Metcalf wouldn't help at all.

If that’s how teams win than why did we lose to the Chargers in the playoffs with a run game that dominates everyone else beforehand.

While they had plenty of DBs out there, we also didn’t have any receivers that they had to fear deep/intermediate. So they could just sit in zone and watch the backfield. No All Pro OL was going to fix the fact that our coaches had a crappy gameplan and the fact that we were so one dimensional that we could not utilize our strengths for success.

Whats more it may only be 4-6 targets, but Metcalf only had about that many in college but his YPC means he can go 6 targets, 4 recs, 100 yds, 2 TDs. So even when he’s “contained” he’s destroying a defense’s ability to contain our offense because now they have to fear what he’s able to bring to the table.

The same is true for JJAW. He didn’t receiver too many targets most years at Stanford because of their run game dominance, yet when he does receive a target his elite box out ability keeps defenses honest. If you don’t shade a safety on him than he’s not losing in 1v1 coverage with the ball in the air.

Lastly, how I feel about our OL is pointless considering there aren’t any elite OL talents in this draft class. There’s just a bunch of guys that have inflated values because teams/media with poor OLs have to convince the fan market that their is a solution to their problem via xyz prospect. I see a bunch of 2nd round talents parading as top 15 picks FTMP. 🤷🏽‍♀️🤷‍♂️

[Danand]

I am obviously higher on the olines in this years draft at the top, but I don't see much talent in the middle/lower rounds. Similar I see a lot of talent at wide receiver later in the draft.

I am also incredibly positioned biased, and that hurts my evaluation of a player like Metcalf. Again, for all the stuff a receiver like DeAndre Hopkins or a Julio Jones can do, it meant so little in the playoffs. We don't need elite talent at wide receiver - and I am one of those who complains about us not having any X-factors in the run/pass game, but I truly believe that we get farther by picking olines high and field a unit like the Cowboys did compared to fielding an offensive line like the Falcons