CosmicCrown Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 1 hour ago, tannenballs said: Where are those Titans fans that wanted to kill me last summer? Mariota still sucks Who are you? You're not relevant enough for anyone to want to kill you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mox Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 He's coming off the worst game of his career and wasn't very good to begin with. I don't know what else there is to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragevsuall17 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 6 hours ago, pwny said: As for your “unlucky” post, Mariota’s adjusted INT total for 2017 is 17. He had two dropped picks and zero tipped picks. So I also don’t see how you can say he only had 15 bad throws when he literally threw 17 directly into a defender’s hands. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/adjusted-interceptions-2017 His should be Intercepted % was tied for 5th in the league. The other 5 players above or tied? Rookie Deshaun Watson and 4 players who aren’t starters anymore or never were. Just like not every pass that coulda/shoulda been intercepted is actually picked off, not every interception is a QBs fault. Sometimes a defense just makes a great play on a good throw, a receiver can't hold on to a good pass and ends up in a defenders hands, etc. What PFF was saying was that just about every bad pass made by Mariota was intercepted, and the leave average % of bad passes that are interested is much lower (resulting in the unlucky label). I haven't been able to find the list of all QBs, but I find a couple articles citing this "stat". https://titanswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/17/marcus-mariota-interceptions-pro-football-focus/ One of the stats that landed Mariota the No. 13 overall grade among quarterbacks by PFF was his low turnover-worthy throw percentage. He had the sixth-lowest mark in the league in that category at 2.6 percent. That’s a good number on par with the league’s most efficient signal callers. The problem for Mariota is that he was just flat out unlucky when he did make a turnover-worthy pass. According to PFF, he had just 14 such throws this season. That means Mariota’s 15 interceptions outnumbered his interception-worthy throws. That means virtually every pass he threw that could get intercepted, did. There weren’t drops, no batted passes and no defenders running into each other. That’s extremely hard to do, and something that probably won’t sustain itself into next year. For reference, he had 15 turnover-worthy throws with nine interceptions last season. And from PFF https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/final-nfl-qb-rankings-by-pff-player-grades-2017 Excerpt from the PFF QB Annual: It may be surprising to see how high Mariota ranked in big-time throws, but he had the second-highest percentage in the league and tied for fourth overall. He hit a number of two-level throws around zone coverage and tight-window throws away from tight man coverage. However, he tied for second in the league with five of his big-time throws falling incomplete on the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, ragevsuall17 said: Just like not every pass that coulda/shoulda been intercepted is actually picked off, not every interception is a QBs fault. Sometimes a defense just makes a great play on a good throw, a receiver can't hold on to a good pass and ends up in a defenders hands, etc. If a QB throws the ball where a defender can be the first to get their hands on the ball, it’s on the Quarterback. As noted in the FO article, Mariota had zero interceptions that first hit his intended target, but had two picks dropped. PFF’s grading system is widely panned by nearly everyone (I mean look at the grades thread we have every year), so I really don’t care about how their rating worked out for Mariota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragevsuall17 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, pwny said: If a QB throws the ball where a defender can be the first to get their hands on the ball, it’s on the Quarterback. As noted in the FO article, Mariota had zero interceptions that first hit his intended target, but had two picks dropped. PFF’s grading system is widely panned by nearly everyone (I mean look at the grades thread we have every year), so I really don’t care about how their rating worked out for Mariota. Its a metric as subjective as the open receiver stat you've been using. I also wonder if the numbers you're using are correct... Saw a stat after week 5 that had Mariota ranked 2md in the league... But at 50% right behind Brady (not 80% like you've said). As far as the bad luck last year... Its not just a PFF stat... It was something a few of us were talking about last year... Like damn... He's having crappy luck with picks and with those picks being returned for pick 6s. This stat supported that belief. Is it 100% verifiable? Not without watching every single of his attempts again. Again, I'll trust my eyes... Just like a lot of us placed a lot of the blame from the sacks last week on Mariota. I keep staring he lost the little trust he had in his receivers, scheme, line... And himself. The all-22 confirms this. A lot of blame to go around everywhere... Not a lot of places to go with the ball... And Mariota losing trust as the game progressed... https://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2018/10/16/17982418/keeping-up-with-marcus-mariota-week-six-2018 Which again, you're not going to change your mind regardless of what's shared. That ok... You have your own team to worry about... Like I posted beside, just seems like sour grapes at this point how much effort your putting into this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 49 minutes ago, ragevsuall17 said: Its a metric as subjective as the open receiver stat you've been using. I also wonder if the numbers you're using are correct... Saw a stat after week 5 that had Mariota ranked 2md in the league... But at 50% right behind Brady (not 80% like you've said). There’s nothing subjective about agg%. It’s a completely defined stat with measurable data. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/glossary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frenchie Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 On 10/14/2018 at 11:24 PM, BayRaider said: He's better than Bortles. Jags are wasting an all time great D. Mariota is NOT better than Bortles... and I think people are really starting to over exaggerate when it comes to the Jags D; It's all part of this 'replace Bortles' narrative; trying to make it appear Bortles is the only problem on the team, which he is not... On 10/15/2018 at 7:14 AM, Fixxxer said: My guess is he's missing Walker, badly, but I thought he was better than he has shown this year. He had Walker last season, and wasn't much better. and if losing one guy makes that much difference, then it speaks volumes about his development, or lack there of... On 10/15/2018 at 8:37 AM, drd23 said: But why would they want Carr? Based on this season surely Carr wouldn't really be upgrade Base it on any season you want, Carr is definitely an upgrade over Mariota. On 10/15/2018 at 8:40 AM, drd23 said: So Gruden is the reason why Carr looks scared all the time and struggles to throw it beyond the LOS? I'd say it's the o-line... easily one of the most overpaid/overrated lines in the league, and I still have doubts about their effort... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 12 hours ago, pwny said: There’s nothing subjective about agg%. It’s a completely defined stat with measurable data. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/glossary Exactly the same reason no one takes "QBR" seriously. Because their data isn't published on how it's calculated and for all we know could just be a panel of judges like at the NBA Dunk Contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Danger said: Exactly the same reason no one takes "QBR" seriously. Because their data isn't published on how it's calculated and for all we know could just be a panel of judges like at the NBA Dunk Contest. The PFF stuff? Or the agg%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 34 minutes ago, pwny said: The PFF stuff? Or the agg%? PFF and QBR. I've read most of the glossary on NGS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Just now, Danger said: PFF and QBR. I've read most of the glossary on NGS That said, even NGS shouldn't be used without context. For example. a QB is taking 3.48 seconds to throw. Does that mean the offensive line is really good or the QB is holding on to the ball for too long. Is the QB extending the play with his legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 2 hours ago, Danger said: That said, even NGS shouldn't be used without context. For example. a QB is taking 3.48 seconds to throw. Does that mean the offensive line is really good or the QB is holding on to the ball for too long. Is the QB extending the play with his legs. Agreed. Time to throw used to be on another site with time to sack and some other data that gave it a bit more context. But even then, it’s not great. A west coast QB is going to need to get the ball out quicker than a QB who is in an offense predicated on throwing the ball downfield. So an OL that blocks long enough to run the Rams’ offense might not be blocking long enough to run some of the Chargers offenses with slow developing throws from a few years ago, even if they’re both giving exactly the same amount of time. For the agg%, you really can’t tell what got the player to that point. Could be coaching, great receivers, an OL that blocks long enough to let receivers open, a QB who is incredible at diagnosing a defense, a QB who is really careful, a QB who can manipulate the pocket to get receivers open, or any number of things. I think the important part of that is that we can judge actual arm talent and true accuracy of players when they’re low on the list. If players are higher on that, you maybe give their arm a bit of a pass and look at the other stuff; is coaching bad or do the receivers suck or is the QB bad at reading defenses or is the offensive line not giving enough time for the type of offensive game plan you're running? But Mariota is getting receivers that are open and adequate windows to throw into more often than anybody. Maybe he’s really good at diagnosing a defense and I’d even concede it if someone wanted to use that as the reason; he seems to have a decent grasp most of the time when to run and when to throw so I’d trust his decision making. But something is going horribly wrong from the point the ball leaves his hand to when it gets delivered. And based on the PFF stats, of course he isn’t throwing balls “worthy of being intercepted” more often than what’s being suggested. If you deliver a ball off a half yard into tight coverage, it can be a pick. But if you’re delivering a half yard off when 91% of your passes are to receivers who are a yard or more open, you’re just throwing incompletions. I also think it’s extremely telling that 3.5% of all his passes end up going directly into a defender’s hands when only 14.6% of his passes are into windows that should even have a defender available to touch the ball. That’s a rate of 24% which is absurdly high and either shows terrible tight area accuracy or terrible decision making on when to try tight throws. EDIT: Just checked percentages for all qualified players based on 2017: He's not in good company. And the couple big names that show up around him are all doing things he's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patriotsheatyan Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Mariota has always had terrible accuracy. No idea how so many people are blind. NFL scouts suck at their jobs like no other profession I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtait93 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 11:57 PM, Jeezla said: you have a qb that never takes chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oregon Ducks Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 I don't know if he'll live up to the MariGOATa moniker but he's going to be a good winning QB for a long time. Could see him being Tom Brady with more wheels. Never really being dominant but being good and winning many games. At worst, he'll be a better Alex Smith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.