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Week 7: Dallas Week GDT!


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1 minute ago, Thaiphoon said:

That stat is great. But there can be many causes for that.

I brought this up in the offseason.  If you go look at the teams Alex has played for historically, this has consistently been the case.  His defenses are consistently top 3-5 in the league in starting field position.  That's no coincidence.  

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Just now, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

I brought this up in the offseason.  If you go look at the teams Alex has played for historically, this has consistently been the case.  His defenses are consistently top 3-5 in the league in starting field position.  That's no coincidence.  

And again, it can have many reasons why. I'm sure Alex is part of the equation.

But see the bold? It isn't really the same as what Keim is saying. 

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1 minute ago, Thaiphoon said:

And again, it can have many reasons why. I'm sure Alex is part of the equation.

But see the bold? It isn't really the same as what Keim is saying. 

It’s how this franchise was when CP was here and we had Brunnell/Campbell/Collins. Little to no turnovers, ball control, strong defense and the occasional deep pass competed.

If you’re not turning the ball over, you’re running the ball well, playing good defense then you’re going to win most games even if your passing game is eh. A punt is not always bad as long as it pins the opponent inside the 20. Now, a fumble or int around midfield or on your own end, that’s bad.

The Titans have thrived off of it since they drafted Mariotta as have some other teams in the last decade. The Bears are this year too.

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6 minutes ago, Thaiphoon said:

And again, it can have many reasons why. I'm sure Alex is part of the equation.

But see the bold? It isn't really the same as what Keim is saying. 

It is though.  Or are we pretending that there isn't an extremely strong correlation between facing minimal drives starting inside your own 50 and having favorable overall starting field position per drive?

Here's my point.  LOS per drive rankings since Kirk became starter:

Alex Smith's teams - Defense Average LOS per drive:

2018: 26.33 (6th)

2017: 25.49 (3rd)

2016: 26.30 (4th)

2015: 24.37 (3rd)

 

Kirk Cousin's teams - Defense Average LOS per drive:

2018: 28.85 (19th)

2017: 30.11 (28th)

2016: 27.75 (15th)

2015: 27.45 (18th)

 

It's really not a coincidence, and it's what Keim is alluding to.  Any surprise we rank ahead of Minnesota in defensive YPG and PPG?

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22 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

It is though.  Or are we pretending that there isn't an extremely strong correlation between facing minimal drives starting inside your own 50 and having favorable overall starting field position per drive?

Here's my point.  LOS per drive rankings since Kirk became starter:

Alex Smith's teams - Defense Average LOS per drive:

2018: 26.33 (6th)

2017: 25.49 (3rd)

2016: 26.30 (4th)

2015: 24.37 (3rd)

 

Kirk Cousin's teams - Defense Average LOS per drive:

2018: 28.85 (19th)

2017: 30.11 (28th)

2016: 27.75 (15th)

2015: 27.45 (18th)

 

It's really not a coincidence, and it's what Keim is alluding to.  Any surprise we rank ahead of Minnesota in defensive YPG and PPG?

He said:

Quote

The Redskins' D has faced only 3 drives that began inside the 50 this season (2 vs. NO). Last year they faced 23 such drives overall (and, in comparison, 10 in the first 6 games).

He's not giving you an average. He's giving you data points. That's what I was saying. As for the WHY, again. Its a collection of factors that, yes...includes the QB. But ALSO includes the rest of the offense not turning the ball over, the defense stopping teams deep in their territory and flipping the field (and vice versa) as well as special teams doing the same thing.

Correlation is not causation.

 

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1 minute ago, Thaiphoon said:

He said:

He's not giving you an average. He's giving you data points. That's what I was saying. As for the WHY, again. Its a collection of factors that, yes...includes the QB. But ALSO includes the rest of the offense not turning the ball over, the defense stopping teams deep in their territory and flipping the field (and vice versa) as well as special teams doing the same thing.

Correlation is not causation.

 

Keim is giving data points that complement his overall point he has been expressing over the past few days, which is also my point:

 

Of course there are other factors that play a role.  But when the player who handles the ball every snap of the game for an offense doesn't turn it over, that has the largest impact by far.

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Fewest Passing Interceptions in a season since 1990 (minimum 350 pass attempts)
  Player Team Year Games Passing Attempts Passing INTs INT %
1 Tom Brady NE 2016 12 432 2 0.50%
2 Steve DeBerg KC 1990 16 444 4 0.90%
3 Tom Brady NE 2010 16 492 4 0.80%
4 Dak Prescott DAL 2016 16 459 4 0.90%
5 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 2010 12 389 5 1.30%
6 Alex Smith SF 2011 16 445 5 1.10%
7 Robert Griffin III WAS 2012 15 393 5 1.30%
8 Aaron Rodgers GB 2014 16 520 5 1.00%
9 Sam Bradford MIN 2016 15 552 5 0.90%
10 Rich Gannon MIN 1991 15 354 6 1.70%

Usually does mean the playoffs 

 

https://www.sportingcharts.com/stats/nfl/all-time/fewest-passing-interceptions-in-a-single-season/


 

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36 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Keim is giving data points that complement his overall point he has been expressing over the past few days, which is also my point:

 

Of course there are other factors that play a role.  But when the player who handles the ball every snap of the game for an offense doesn't turn it over, that has the largest impact by far.

I'm not disagreeing it has a large impact. I'm simply saying that we cannot overlook the roles everyone else plays. He's forgetting defense forcing 3 and outs deep in opponent territories.

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57 minutes ago, Doc Draper said:
Fewest Passing Interceptions in a season since 1990 (minimum 350 pass attempts)
  Player Team Year Games Passing Attempts Passing INTs INT %
1 Tom Brady NE 2016 12 432 2 0.50%
2 Steve DeBerg KC 1990 16 444 4 0.90%
3 Tom Brady NE 2010 16 492 4 0.80%
4 Dak Prescott DAL 2016 16 459 4 0.90%
5 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 2010 12 389 5 1.30%
6 Alex Smith SF 2011 16 445 5 1.10%
7 Robert Griffin III WAS 2012 15 393 5 1.30%
8 Aaron Rodgers GB 2014 16 520 5 1.00%
9 Sam Bradford MIN 2016 15 552 5 0.90%
10 Rich Gannon MIN 1991 15 354 6 1.70%

Usually does mean the playoffs 

 

https://www.sportingcharts.com/stats/nfl/all-time/fewest-passing-interceptions-in-a-single-season/


 

There was a season where Big Ben only threw 5 picks???????

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On 10/21/2018 at 4:29 PM, Jeezy Fanatic said:
On 10/21/2018 at 4:09 PM, turtle28 said:

Wrong, we did it when we had CP as our RB and we played good D in 2005 & 07.

Ok, give me the stats on how many second half points per game we scored those years

Will DVOA do?

  • 2005
    • Offense
      • By quarters
        • 1st quarter: 24th
        • 2nd quarter: 10th
        • 3rd quarter: 1st
        • 4th quarter: 13th
      • By halves
        • 1st half: 14th
        • 2nd half: 6th
      • Late & close: 2nd
      • Overall: 10th
    • Defense
      • By quarters
        • 1st quarter: 1st
        • 2nd quarter: 12th
        • 3rd quarter: 23rd
        • 4th quarter: 4th
      • By halves
        • 1st half: 2nd
        • 2nd half: 11th
      • Late & close: 17th
      • Overall: 4th
  • 2007
    • Offense
      • By quarters
        • 1st quarter: 15th
        • 2nd quarter: 16th
        • 3rd quarter: 17th
        • 4th quarter: 20th
      • By halves
        • 1st half: 15th
        • 2nd half: 21st
      • Late & close: 24th
      • Overall: 17th
    • Defense
      • By quarters
        • 1st quarter: 2nd
        • 2nd quarter: 2nd
        • 3rd quarter: 26th
        • 4th quarter: 21st
      • By halves
        • 1st half: 1st
        • 2nd half: 25th
      • Late & close: 24th
      • Overall: 7th
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On 10/21/2018 at 4:31 PM, Doc Draper said:
On 10/21/2018 at 4:29 PM, Jeezy Fanatic said:

Ok, give me the stats on how many second half points per game we scored those years

And if it was a dome stadium

I looked for breakdowns of inside/outside, but no such luck.

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On 10/21/2018 at 6:11 PM, turtle28 said:
On 10/21/2018 at 6:10 PM, Thaiphoon said:

Kinda like the big Smith apologists who havent dared to post this year since preseason

He left bc he did want you to ban him, he’s PMed me

That's a load of malarky if ever there was one.

We made it abundantly clear that while we disagreed with him (vocally), nothing he was doing was crossing a line EXCEPT when he was calling out other people's fandom for not getting on board with Smith.

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2 minutes ago, Woz said:

That's a load of malarky if ever there was one.

We made it abundantly clear that while we disagreed with him (vocally), nothing he was doing was crossing a line EXCEPT when he was calling out other people's fandom for not getting on board with Smith.

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