cddolphin Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, Danger said: Y'all have fun wasting your cash. HEY! I'm funding education! Quality state-run education too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heimdallr Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 1. Yes, I voted and will continue to vote 2. Yes, I am throwing away $4, because talking about what I'd do with the money and making jokes about it with coworkers is enough entertainment to rationalize throwing it away. 3. Yes, I am fully aware that in a vacuum, assuming it is physically possible, I'd have better odds of standing on top of the International Space Station and throwing a tennis ball down to earth and hitting the roof of my own house than I would winning the lottery (fun fact of the day). 4. Someone (or multiple people) WILL win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tetsujin Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Ironically, in a national election (or even state-wide), you're more likely to win the lotto than being a deciding vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heimdallr Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, freak_of_nature said: Ironically, in a national election (or even state-wide), you're more likely to win the lotto than being a deciding vote. I have no idea why you would think that because that is both completely untrue and ignores the other important aspects of voting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tetsujin Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 9 minutes ago, Heimdallr said: I have no idea why you would think that because that is both completely untrue and ignores the other important aspects of voting How many state elections and national elections have been decided by a single vote? I don't think it's happened yet. Many have won the lottery. I know about the other aspects of voting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, Heimdallr said: I have no idea why you would think that because that is both completely untrue and ignores the other important aspects of voting Here's some math to back that up. Let's say we have a 50/50 race, with a million votes cast. The odds of a tie are: 1,000,000!/(500,000!*500,000!) where the ! is a factorial. That comes out to 0.00079, or 0.08%. A deviation from a 50/50 race lowers those odds obviously, while a smaller election raises them. But realistically, that's a lot more likely than winning the lottery. And you're correct, it completely ignores the demographic and data mining aspects of voting that matter, which is why votes can be valuable even if you don't have a realistic shot at your preferred candidate winning. The trends in voter turnout, what issues are becoming more and less popular over time, and voter demographics are part of what drives major political party decision-making. It's not all of it, obviously, but it is some of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, freak_of_nature said: How many state elections and national elections have been decided by a single vote? I don't think it's happened yet. Many have won the lottery. I know about the other aspects of voting. You are falsely comparing what the odds are that anyone wins the lottery, versus what the odds are that only 1 specific person would decide an election. That fails to take into account that the collective group that is winning the lottery is buying hundreds of thousands of tickets to do so. We have not had hundreds of thousands of elections with verifiable voting records to look back on and determine if the margin was a single vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tetsujin Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: Here's some math to back that up. Let's say we have a 50/50 race, with a million votes cast. The odds of a tie are: 1,000,000!/(500,000!*500,000!) where the ! is a factorial. That comes out to 0.00079, or 0.08%. A deviation from a 50/50 race lowers those odds obviously, while a smaller election raises them. But realistically, that's a lot more likely than winning the lottery. And you're correct, it completely ignores the demographic and data mining aspects of voting that matter, which is why votes can be valuable even if you don't have a realistic shot at your preferred candidate winning. The trends in voter turnout, what issues are becoming more and less popular over time, and voter demographics are part of what drives major political party decision-making. It's not all of it, obviously, but it is some of it. One big difference is that you can buy as many lotto tickets as you can. You can only vote once (legally). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Just now, freak_of_nature said: One big difference is that you can buy as many lotto tickets as you can. You can only vote once (legally). Well sure, theoretically if you bought every single lottery number in existence you could guarantee a successful outcome. I read that question, and I assumed other people did too, as "what is more likely, my 1 vote decides an election or my 1 lottery ticket hits the jackpot?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 43 minutes ago, MWil23 said: 3. Yes, I am fully aware that in a vacuum, assuming it is physically possible, I'd have better odds of standing on top of the International Space Station and throwing a tennis ball down to earth and hitting the roof of my own house than I would winning the lottery (fun fact of the day). 4. Someone (or multiple people) WILL win Taken together, 5. There are a lot of frickin people on this planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 45 minutes ago, MWil23 said: 3. Yes, I am fully aware that in a vacuum, assuming it is physically possible, I'd have better odds of standing on top of the International Space Station and throwing a tennis ball down to earth and hitting the roof of my own house than I would winning the lottery (fun fact of the day). Pshhhhh, I've done that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tetsujin Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 I never used the term "odds"; used the term "likely", taking the human element into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, ET80 said: Pshhhhh, I've done that before. i think you hit @Domes instead, which explains why his fence is messed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 10 minutes ago, freak_of_nature said: I never used the term "odds"; used the term "likely", taking the human element into account. No one separates the terms "likely" and "odds" with a "human element" (which in this case, isn't really anything except a multiple on one of the relative terms). It's okay to admit you were wrong. This is a thread about people who are playing the lottery dude. Statistically, everybody's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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