MVP Race

[childofpudding]

2 hours ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said:

It's an irrelevant correlation. 0.21 is TINY. Almost none of the highest passer rating seasons have a high amount of passing attempts. You're incorrect. 

Oh, and have you ever heard that correlation /=/ causation? Better QB's simply throw the ball more, because ya know, they are good and would benefit from throwing more as opposed to running that play or whatever the case may be. 

No, you were incorrect, as I already showed you. There is no shame in getting it wrong, everyone gets things wrong sometimes and you were wrong this time.

I realize the positive correlation is small, but it is nonetheless positive and proves incorrect your statement that "passing in huge volumes usually makes you LESS efficient." Those are the facts. Sorry.

[childofpudding]

3 hours ago, Jlowe22 said:

I'd be curious to know what the average number of pass attempts was in 1984 compared to 2018.  Everybody runs passing offenses these days.  

Rules make it easier to pass now, but it also makes more teams do it, or at least encourages them to do it.

Wow. Just looked it up and it is not nearly as big a difference as I thought it would be: 32 attempts per team per game in 1984 vs. 34.9 attempts per team per game in 2018. So about six more passes per game for both teams combined.

Edit: Whoops, just saw another poster had answered this.

[Jlowe22]

Just now, childofpudding said:

Wow. Just looked it up and it is not nearly as big a difference as I thought it would be: 32 attempts per team per game in 1984 vs. 34.9 attempts per team per game in 2018. So about six more passes per game for both teams combined.

Yes, I too would have thought it to be a bit bigger.  I know pass attempts spiked sometime in the late 70s/early 80s, but changes have been minimal since.

I was curious, because I saw Marino led the league in attempts in 1984, while Mahomes is barely top ten, and Brees somewhere below that.  Although, there were several teams with more attempts than Marino.  

 

[C0LTSFAN4L1F3]

34 minutes ago, childofpudding said:

No, you were incorrect, as I already showed you. There is no shame in getting it wrong, everyone gets things wrong sometimes and you were wrong this time.

I realize the positive correlation is small, but it is nonetheless positive and proves incorrect your statement that "passing in huge volumes usually makes you LESS efficient." Those are the facts. Sorry.

Agree to disagree. 

[childofpudding]

1 hour ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said:

Agree to disagree. 

nvm

[childofpudding]

47 minutes ago, Jlowe22 said:

Yes, I too would have thought it to be a bit bigger.  I know pass attempts spiked sometime in the late 70s/early 80s, but changes have been minimal since.

I was curious, because I saw Marino led the league in attempts in 1984, while Mahomes is barely top ten, and Brees somewhere below that.  Although, there were several teams with more attempts than Marino.  

True. I don't know. This proliferation of passing has only led to a 13% increase in PPG/team, from 21.2 to 23.9, or about 5 points total per game for both teams combined. Heck, as late as 2009 the average was 21.5 PPG/team, which is nearly the same as the 21.2 PPG/team from 25 years earlier. Maybe there will eventually be a swing back downward? I don't know.

Passer rating is a huge change. Average in 2018 is 94.4, which is 24% higher than the 76.1 average in 1976.

The biggest passing stat differences, in order, have been INT% (41.5% lower), INTs/game (38.5% lower), ANY/A which accounts for sacks and sack yardage (30% higher) and TDs/game (28.6% higher). I would say that the first three differences are due to the change in passing offense: more short passes focused on YAC potential, not as much vertical-focused offenses, etc. That would cut turnovers due to the short passes and reduce sacks because the QBs can get rid of it quicker. Unfortunately there is no older data that I can find for YAC, which could help clear up some of those questions. I'm willing to bet that YAC/attempt has seen a huge increase in the last 30+ years, maybe even more than the decrease in INT%.

[Chiefer]

Mahomes with four TDs in a trap game willing us to victory without his partner Kareem.

He was off though, couldve scored 60, but still came through when we needed him.

We gotta upgrade that defense, its so easy too pick apart puts a ton of pressure on him. But even an off day hes hitting 295 and 4 TDs, 0 interceptions(without Hunt, hill or Watkins contributing)

[Jakuvious]

9 hours ago, childofpudding said:

Marino's passer rating in 1984 was 108.9, which was 43% higher than the average of 76.1. Mahomes' passer rating this year is 118.1, which is 25% higher than the average of 94.4.

Marino threw for 318 yards/game in 1984, which was 54% higher than the average of 206. Mahomes has thrown for 272 yards per game this year, which is 11% higher than the average of 246.

Marino's season was far more dominant in terms of the competition with other QBs, both in terms of volume and efficiency.

 

You're way off on Mahomes's yards per game, FYI. Not sure if that was a math error, or what. But I know he's above 325 yards per game.

[Jakuvious]

On the prospect of Donald winning it, I just don't see how you can give a player MVP when the team they're on isn't even above average on their side of the ball. He's absolutely DPOTY, but that just doesn't mesh with MVP to me. 

[Nabbs4u]

4 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

On the prospect of Donald winning it, I just don't see how you can give a player MVP when the team they're on isn't even above average on their side of the ball. He's absolutely DPOTY, but that just doesn't mesh with MVP to me. 

Exactly. As great as Donald is playing, it's not like their Defense is one of the best in the NFL. Should be, but their not.

Gurley has more of an argument then Donald. 

 

[3rivers]

11 hours ago, childofpudding said:

Marino's passer rating in 1984 was 108.9, which was 43% higher than the average of 76.1. Mahomes' passer rating this year is 118.1, which is 25% higher than the average of 94.4.

Marino threw for 318 yards/game in 1984, which was 54% higher than the average of 206. Mahomes has thrown for 272 yards per game this year, which is 11% higher than the average of 246.

Marino's season was far more dominant in terms of the competition with other QBs, both in terms of volume and efficiency.

 

that's an informative post. If Marino  from 84 played in  todays league he would probably average 500 a game.  It was much different back then in every way, and for him to do what he did at the time it was remarkable.  If Marino  played in a dome with todays rules 

[RandyMossIsBoss]

21 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

that's an informative post. If Marino  from 84 played in  todays league he would probably average 500 a game.  It was much different back then in every way, and for him to do what he did at the time it was remarkable.  If Marino  played in a dome with todays rules 

I mean there is a peak to how many TDs and yards you can rack up in 60 minutes, and I don't think anybody would argue Marino was on a different level than Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, all guys playing in this pass happy era (and only the latter 3 for this particular pass happy year), so no reason to expect he'd outpace them by some notable margin. I just view Marino and that offense as being ahead of it's time. Same way I would consider a guy like Don Hutson simply ahead of his time, but not for a minute do I think he would come in and out pace his peers at a similar rate as he did (even if you grew him up in this era with the same training, gloves, etc.).

 

I am fairly confident we will never see another 2nd year QB season like Marino's (in the sense of rewriting the record books), as all of those single season marks he set that have since been broken have only improved little by little as time goes on. No sudden leaps in the TD record.... but what Mahomes is doing is definitely the closest we've seen, and as close as we'll probably ever get.

[childofpudding]

3 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

You're way off on Mahomes's yards per game, FYI. Not sure if that was a math error, or what. But I know he's above 325 yards per game.

Oh **** I screwed that up, thank you. No idea how I did that, it was stupid. Yeah, 326.9, which is 33% higher than average. Still not that close to Marino, but a lot closer.

[Buckweath]

16 hours ago, childofpudding said:

Marino's passer rating in 1984 was 108.9, which was 43% higher than the average of 76.1. Mahomes' passer rating this year is 118.1, which is 25% higher than the average of 94.4.

Marino threw for 318 yards/game in 1984, which was 54% higher than the average of 206. Mahomes has thrown for 272 yards per game this year, which is 11% higher than the average of 246.

Marino's season was far more dominant in terms of the competition with other QBs, both in terms of volume and efficiency.

 

Those stats can be misleading. The higher the average gets, the harder it is to distance oneself from the average. This is especially true for the passer rating. And on top of that you didn't have Mahomes' yards per game correct.

 

In the end though, I agree Marino's second season is more impressive.

[childofpudding]

13 minutes ago, Buckweath said:

Those stats can be misleading. The higher the average gets, the harder it is to distance oneself from the average. This is especially true for the passer rating. And on top of that you didn't have Mahomes' yards per game correct.

In the end though, I agree Marino's second season is more impressive.

Yes, that's a good point. But the thing is that it should be extremely hard to be as far above the field as Marino was. For context, 43% above this season's average would be about 135. The single-season record was Rodgers in 2011 with 122.5, and Brees has 123.2 right now. Getting to 130 for a whole season, nevermind 135, would be pretty crazy.