Is Philip Rivers a HOF’er

[Bobikus]

8 hours ago, kingseanjohn said:

I don't know if I'd say 2nd best. Here's a list of some of QBs to never win a ring:

Jim Kelly, Warren Moon, Frank Tarkenton, Dan Fouts, Randall Cunningham, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair, Boomer Esiason, Sonny Jurgensen, Tony Romo, Doug Flutie, Jay Cutler, Archie Manning, Rich Gannon, Otto Graham, and Drew Bledsoe among many others.

Otto Graham?  Dude won like, 3 championships after the Browns joined the NFL.

That aside, there's not many on that list I'd put above Rivers for sure.  Possibly just Tark and Jurg, and even that runs into the issue of comparing QBs that played half a century apart.

Still don't think he gets in for sure without an MVP or SB appearance, but hard to say, since Moon and Fouts are both in.  If he doesn't get in though I think him and Romo would be the best two QBs not in it.

[kingseanjohn]

2 hours ago, H.E Pennypacker said:

 Cutler

I like to throw in a random name to see who actually reads. 

[game3525]

Rivers punched his ticket into canton after last season.

[Blackstar12]

Of course Joe freaking Nemith is in the HOF.

[Gannon12]

14 minutes ago, Blackstar12 said:

Of course Joe freaking Nemith is in the HOF.

Because “Nemith” saves us from the invasion of alien lizard Bolshevik’s 

[SkippyX]

He will have the numbers for sure, but its the Jim Kelly debate.

• There is no way Kelly was a top 5 QB of his Era.
• He still went in on the first ballot.

Rivers is 2nd or 3rd in his own draft class depending on how much you value Eli's 2 Super Bowls.

Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger, Warner,  and Wilson are all better than him.

Is Matt Ryan better than Brees? How about the total package of Cam Newton?

Is he really that much better than Carson Palmer?

Does getting to a Super Bowl matter?

 

I'd say he definitely has the stats but he won't get in.

BTW, I voted yes in this poll and then my analysis came up as an absolute no.

[King Joffrey]

7 hours ago, game3525 said:

Rivers punched his ticket into canton after last season.

by missing the playoffs, while a 9 win Bills team got in?

 

 

 I love Rivers but dude has made the playoffs once in the last 8 seasons 

[game3525]

10 minutes ago, King Joffrey said:

by missing the playoffs, while a 9 win Bills team got in?

 

 

 I love Rivers but dude has made the playoffs once in the last 8 seasons 

Yes, because Rivers is really responsible for NFL tie-breakers (They blew out the Bills btw).

And the reason he punched his ticket is due his longevity. Pro-bowls are silly, but every QB with at least 7 selections is in. Rivers got his 7th last year and might finish with 10, while also being top 5-10 in every major passing statistic. 

[BayRaider]

He’ll get in, def not 1st or 2nd ballot though. 

[Bobikus]

Bored and feeling kinda sick tonight so here's away too many words on the topic:

I think part of this question kinda comes down to how many QBs that played in the same era as Rivers gets in in the first place. seems to be about 7-8ish QBs of each generation going in.  So far this generation we have Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, Ben who are locks.  (Favre I'm counting as the previous generation and Warner's career is such an aberration that I kinda want to just ignore him in any comparisons).

As contemporaries of Rivers we have Eli, Ryan, Newton, Wilson, McNabb that are worth mentioning at all with guys like Goff/Wentz as the start of the next generation, and Newton/Wilson just barely around long enough to talk about.  Of this group Rivers is currently the only one to not play in a Super Bowl, while Wilson has one ring and Eli two.

To start with arguments for Rivers of course:  He's a very efficient passer.  His PFR rate+,y/a+,ay/a+ put him around the same as Ben (despite general consensus that Rivers has been the better regular season player, they're extremely close statistically including just 0.4 apart in YPG), and above everyone but Romo, Wilson, and the "big 4".  In 2008-2010 he was top 3 in rating each year, leading once, was first in Y/A each of those years, and on the whole was the most efficient passer in the league over that span while being top 3 in yards and top 3 in TDs, leading once in each.  He's had some down years efficiency wise, but also great years again in 2013 and so far this year.  His volume is sufficient too.  Of 13 years starting he's been top 10 in yards and TDs 10 and 11 times respectively, and top 5 6 times for each (assuming he remains on pace this year).  That also comes with his ironman streak of 200 consecutive starts, which if it continues will pass Peyton for 2nd among QBs next September.  He also has 7 pro bowl selections (yes, this matters) and was on the NFL top 100 list 8 times.

Main argument against is pretty clear:  He's pretty much patient zero of this era for good QB play but not the team success that tends to go with it.  Only one AFCCG appearance, 7 years of no playoffs, 3 years with losing records including the bad 4-12 and 5-11 years under McCoy.  Coaching has definitely not been on Rivers' side here.  Turner and McCoy are by no measure a good slate of HCs.  Turner was gifted on making a team worse than the sum of what should be good parts and 2010 is basically a case study on how terrible special teams and poor coaching can have a team that's first in both yards gained AND yards allowed miss the playoffs.  His few playoff appearances were against a rough slate as well.  3 postseasons in a row included facing the #1 D, including a loss where he threw 3 TDs with a 105 rating against a historically good defense.  Outside of his first loss, in his first year starting, I wouldn't consider any losses him choking or letting his team down, but it still stands that he lacks any postseason success.

On top of that is the lack of regular season accolades beyond the pro bowl. No MVPs or OPOTYs.   His best years tended to come when Manning was winning his later MVPs, mostly on the back of better team record than better individual stats in the 08-09 seasons, while the '13 season was of course the TD record breaking one.  Even this year the great year he's having is being overshadowed by Brees and Mahomes, though there's still almost half a season of games left to account for.  No first team all-pros either but that almost goes without saying in an era where the first team all-pro QB is probably the MVP by default.

In any case he's had a very great career that on the stat sheet fits the profile of a HoF player perfectly, but without some crowning thing to put him over the top into certain lock territory.  The only QBs in the Hall without a ring or an (AP) MVP are Moon, Fouts, and Jurgensen (if you ignore his ring as a backup on the Eagles), and the former 2 at least have OPOTYs.  Assuming that more than 10 (including Warner) don't go from the same era, Rivers has to beat out at least 1-2 from that above group.

McNabb is the easiest.  Decent stats and more playoff wins than Rivers and at least an SB appearance, but no ring or MVP, never lead in a major QB stat.  McNabb had some good years but  I think Rivers would pretty comfortably go before McNabb is considered.

Eli is kind of an interesting case in that everyone seems to think he probably gets in even thanks to the rings even though probably no one would argue his regular season play merits consideration.  He has good volume numbers but his efficiency is mediocre and closer to Flacco than any HoF lock this generation, and no one is really arguing that Flacco and his one ring is going to get in.  There's also the obvious comparisons due to being part of that 04 class and the famous draft day trade.  Despite the clear gulf in regular season play though Eli does still have 4 pro bowl selections. Despite thinking Eli does probably sneak in eventually, I give the edge to Rivers here as of now, with him aging much more gracefully.

Ryan and Newton are kinda similar in argument here (beyond Ryan being in the league a little longer), two QBs that have been generally good but not always great in most years, but each have one MVP year coupled with an SB loss.  Ryan's an efficient passer but even with the MVP season his career passing isn't as efficient as Rivers, and aside from the MVP season isn't really that close.  Newton is hard to gauge in that his passing stats are just average but he's the best rushing QB ever.  I think that Rivers is more deserving of either as of now, but the same people that vote on AP MVPs have pull with the committee so it's hard to ignore those even as just outlier years.  I want to say that between the two I think Newton has a better chance due to being a more unique player.

Wilson is the youngest of the group in playing time but also probably the toughest one to mention here.  He managed to go the Brady/Ben route of getting a ring real early while playing efficiently even if not at high passing yardage, and was a goal line mishap away from a second.  No MVPs or first team all-pros yet but was in the conversation for sure in 2015 and have gotten it if the Panthers had another loss or two on their schedule.  His love of running in the backfield leads to probably as many sacks as big plays sometimes, but it's lead to having the most efficient passing stats outside of the big 4 (and Romo).  The Seahawks seem to be in decline but his passing is as efficient as ever, and the team turning around seems more likely than him falling off.  It's early in his career enough that he's kinda on the tail end of what could be seen as the generation surrounding Rivers, but he feels the most "on pace" of any QB not already considered a lock.  I'd put him over Rivers on the assumption that he doesn't drop off massively in his early 30s, but this is of course with the huge caveat that I'm projecting that someone might have a career stat sheet on par with what Rivers already has.  He just seems mostly like to end up similar to Rivers, but with a ring and more chances left to get some MVP votes on his side.

Main conclusion I'm getting here is that I think he does get in, or at least SHOULD get in imo, depending partially on how the rest of Ryans/Newtons careers pan out before Rivers is on any ballots.  The Big 4, Ben, Warner is 6 spots, leaving 2-3 left.  Even being generous about Wilson's odds, that puts Rivers vs Eli, Ryan, and Newton who even with their accolades I can't see as being more deserving than Rivers as things stand now.