Week 11 Post-Game: Packers 24 Seahawks 27

[Pugger]

10 hours ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Rodgers is 60 percent at converting 4th and 2 in his career.  League average is over 50 percent. Given that our defense was a mash unit by the end it was a huge mistake by MM not to go for it.  The missed challenge opportunity was also a gaffe ... Not a good look for McCarthy last night on national tv.

I can kinda understand why Mac decided not to go for it because of where we were on the field.  But we were behind by 3 with only 1 TO left and the 2 minute warning.   If we were the team ahead by 3 I could see why we punted.  But we weren't and the defense was a mess.  Asking those young kids, no Daniels and a banged up Clark to stop Wilson and company was asking a  hell of a lot.

[{Family Ghost}]

You know you screwed up when the other team thanks you for taking the  ball out of Aaron Rodgers hand. 

"I don't know if I was relieved," head coach Pete Carroll said of McCarthy's fourth-quarter decision with four minutes and 20 seconds left in the game. "I really did like that they punted the ball to us right there because we knew that we had the shot to kill the game if we could, kill the clock and we did it."

[Leader]

7 minutes ago, Pugger said:

I can kinda understand why Mac decided not to go for it because of where we were on the field.  But we were behind by 3 with only 1 TO left and the 2 minute warning.   If we were the team ahead by 3 I could see why we punted.  But we weren't and the defense was a mess.  Asking those young kids, no Daniels and a banged up Clark to stop Wilson and company was asking a  hell of a lot.

Understood - but you're thinking is too narrowly focused on how our defense had to force a stop on SEA. Alot of things can happen in a football game: SEA offensive mistakes, penalties, fumbles, INT's (a Russel Wilson specialty against GB), failure on their part to convert first downs.................I dont know, fill in the blank with more possibilities.

Besides - as everybody wants to view things - we've got ourselves a really talented roster. Fine. No argument from me - then somebody tell me why the offense goes into funks (like the drive data I've been posting......) which makes me think back and wonder if somewhere along the line we got Hundley back and he's playing QB for us again  -  cause I remember when he was playing, the 10 yards to get a first down suddenly became challenging.

That last bomb to Davante? I found myself having an unusual mental breakdown while that thing was in the air. I'm sitting here watching it, saying to myself: "Get there....get there....get there......"  -  and that has nothing to do with Davante getting to where the ball's gonna be ahead of him - but rather, ARs pass getting to where Davante is BEFORE the DB closes the gap and can make a play on the ball.

Somethings not clicking on offense - and it all cant be attributed to the coach standing on the sideline.

I'm not in favor of keeping or firing MM. I can make all the assumptions of how that would or would not go. Fine - but I view things from a player's perspective and hold players more accountable than coaches. Never in my time of playing did I once fault a coach for my failure to execute. To catch a pass or prevent a pass from being caught by another. Players play. Coaches coach.

[packfanfb]

Very true. Despite stats most NFL QBs would crave, Rodgers was far from perfect on Thursday but that's the problem. When he doesn't play perfectly, Mac's team loses 9 out of 10 times.

[{Family Ghost}]

1 hour ago, Pugger said:

I can kinda understand why Mac decided not to go for it because of where we were on the field.  But we were behind by 3 with only 1 TO left and the 2 minute warning.   If we were the team ahead by 3 I could see why we punted.  But we weren't and the defense was a mess.  Asking those young kids, no Daniels and a banged up Clark to stop Wilson and company was asking a  hell of a lot.

It is almost a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario, but when you have your backs to the wall in a nearly must win game on the road you have to go for it there.  Relying on a defense that was wounded there at the end was the wrong play.  McCarthy took the ball out of the hands of the guy that has a history of winning these tight games.  I'm sure though that if they go for it and don't get it there would be screaming as well.  Still though .. back to the wall .. fighting for your job, and your teams' football life .. go for it!

[Pugger]

1 minute ago, {Family Ghost} said:

It is almost a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario, but when you have your backs to the wall in a nearly must win game on the road you have to go for it there.  Relying on a defense that was wounded there at the end was the wrong play.  McCarthy took the ball out of the hands of the guy that has a history of winning these tight games.  I'm sure though that if they go for it and don't get it there would be screaming as well.  Still though .. back to the wall .. fighting for your job, and your teams' football life .. go for it!

I suppose some folks would howl if they don't convert but at least they would have tried.  Let's say they go for it but don't make it.   We could still have attempted to hold Seattle to a FG and a chance to get the ball back to try again to tie the game.  But yes, we were damned if we did, damned if we didn't.  It also didn't help that we couldn't score more than 3 freaking points in the second half.  It appeared Carroll made adjustments and Mac did not after the half.

[Mr. Fussnputz]

7 minutes ago, Pugger said:

I suppose some folks would howl if they don't convert but at least they would have tried.  Let's say they go for it but don't make it.   We could still have attempted to hold Seattle to a FG and a chance to get the ball back to try again to tie the game.  But yes, we were damned if we did, damned if we didn't.  It also didn't help that we couldn't score more than 3 freaking points in the second half.  It appeared Carroll made adjustments and Mac did not after the half.

Just more of MM's boneheaded game management. Like the time in the Cardinal playoff game where he passed on going for two points to win and instead took the extra point to tie for overtime with a banged up defense. And lost. 

[th87]

1 hour ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

Just more of MM's boneheaded game management. Like the time in the Cardinal playoff game where he passed on going for two points to win and instead took the extra point to tie for overtime with a banged up defense. And lost. 

Eh. He deserves criticism, but not for this one. It was a low scoring game. No one expected Randall to catastrophically blow his coverage (after Palmer miraculously escaped a sack).

[Mr. Fussnputz]

12 minutes ago, th87 said:

Eh. He deserves criticism, but not for this one. It was a low scoring game. No one expected Randall to catastrophically blow his coverage (after Palmer miraculously escaped a sack).

The odds were in favor of going for two. It took a miracle catch to even get in that position.  But even without considering that decision, there are enough other poor decisions to make a determination that game management is not one of MM's strengths.

[skibrett15]

3 hours ago, Leader said:

Understood - but you're thinking is too narrowly focused on how our defense had to force a stop on SEA. Alot of things can happen in a football game: SEA offensive mistakes, penalties, fumbles, INT's (a Russel Wilson specialty against GB), failure on their part to convert first downs.................I dont know, fill in the blank with more possibilities.

Besides - as everybody wants to view things - we've got ourselves a really talented roster. Fine. No argument from me - then somebody tell me why the offense goes into funks (like the drive data I've been posting......) which makes me think back and wonder if somewhere along the line we got Hundley back and he's playing QB for us again  -  cause I remember when he was playing, the 10 yards to get a first down suddenly became challenging.

That last bomb to Davante? I found myself having an unusual mental breakdown while that thing was in the air. I'm sitting here watching it, saying to myself: "Get there....get there....get there......"  -  and that has nothing to do with Davante getting to where the ball's gonna be ahead of him - but rather, ARs pass getting to where Davante is BEFORE the DB closes the gap and can make a play on the ball.

Somethings not clicking on offense - and it all cant be attributed to the coach standing on the sideline.

I'm not in favor of keeping or firing MM. I can make all the assumptions of how that would or would not go. Fine - but I view things from a player's perspective and hold players more accountable than coaches. Never in my time of playing did I once fault a coach for my failure to execute. To catch a pass or prevent a pass from being caught by another. Players play. Coaches coach.

If you punt it, you can't give up 2 first downs, and/or you can't give up 1 first down if they convert on 3rd down after you use a TO.  So, best case is you can give up 1 first down and get the ball back with a min and change needing a FG to tie.

 

Worst case, they get 1 or 2 first downs and game over.

If you go for it, best case is you score on a game ending TD, or tie the game on a game ending FG to go to OT.

If you Fail, you have to stop a first down (same scenario as punting) and force a FG.  Then you get the ball back needing a TD with the same amount of time.

 

Even the bad side of going for it has a similar scenario to the upside of punting (you need to stop a 1st down and then force a FG and change of possession allowing you to win on a TD).  All you sacrifice is the chance at a turnover by Seattle in their end, and a chance to tie and go to OT where you might win or lose.

[Leader]

2 hours ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

Just more of MM's boneheaded game management. Like the time in the Cardinal playoff game where he passed on going for two points to win and instead took the extra point to tie for overtime with a banged up defense. And lost. 

Interesting you should mention that cause its kind of interesting.

Okay. MM lost us that game. Got it.

But did you realize that if Sam Shields hangs on to one (if not both) of the INT opportunities - that clanged right off his hands - it kills two AZ scoring drives. Unquestionably changes the course that game would have taken.

So its the coaches fault. Got it.

And you want to know a "secondary effect" that would have had? (And this is where it gets interesting......) if Sam had made those snags it would have  quieted the entire social media / clickbait world for over a year.

If Sam hangs on and AZ doesnt score those points - in all likelihood - meaning its way more probable than not - that two (2) hail mary's arent needed at the end of that game - which means that a certain WR (who will remain nameless for fear of triggering some reflexive chatter......) never gets to make those two end of regulation catches. Never gets to offer "You see (?) he's been misused by MM all this time......" fodder to the social media world - and cancels a whole lot of endless wrangling about how "great" that certain WR could be if only MM knew what end was up.

That chatter was never ending. A bottomless pit.

I always liked Sam Shields......but I do remember him with some regret

[Mr. Fussnputz]

1 hour ago, Leader said:

Interesting you should mention that cause its kind of interesting.

Okay. MM lost us that game. Got it.

But did you realize that if Sam Shields hangs on to one (if not both) of the INT opportunities - that clanged right off his hands - it kills two AZ scoring drives. Unquestionably changes the course that game would have taken.

So its the coaches fault. Got it.

And you want to know a "secondary effect" that would have had? (And this is where it gets interesting......) if Sam had made those snags it would have  quieted the entire social media / clickbait world for over a year.

If Sam hangs on and AZ doesnt score those points - in all likelihood - meaning its way more probable than not - that two (2) hail mary's arent needed at the end of that game - which means that a certain WR (who will remain nameless for fear of triggering some reflexive chatter......) never gets to make those two end of regulation catches. Never gets to offer "You see (?) he's been misused by MM all this time......" fodder to the social media world - and cancels a whole lot of endless wrangling about how "great" that certain WR could be if only MM knew what end was up.

That chatter was never ending. A bottomless pit.

I always liked Sam Shields......but I do remember him with some regret

Agreed, but in the end Sam didn't hang on to those two picks and it came down to MM having to make a decision. The defense was gassed, but Cobb was out injured, so MM decided to trust the gassed defense over a Cobb-less offense. (Pretty much tells me MM would have called a pass for the two point conversion.) Probability theory favors the two point try, if you run it. Success rate is over 60% if you run for it; under 50% if you try to pass for it. Of course the coin flip for possession in overtime is 50/50. So the best decision would have been to run the dam ball for two points, because I think at that time the first team to score in OT won.

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

11 minutes ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

Agreed, but in the end Sam didn't hang on to those two picks and it came down to MM having to make a decision. The defense was gassed, but Cobb was out injured, so MM decided to trust the gassed defense over a Cobb-less offense. (Pretty much tells me MM would have called a pass for the two point conversion.) Probability theory favors the two point try, if you run it. Success rate is over 60% if you run for it; under 50% if you try to pass for it. Of course the coin flip for possession in overtime is 50/50. So the best decision would have been to run the dam ball for two points, because I think at that time the first team to score in OT won.

It has been reported that they were down to only 2 receivers with the Janis injury on the play before.  

I suspect if they went for it, it would have had to be a run from a 2 back set.  Not sure how that affects the probability of success since they would have been showing their intent.

Injuries wrecked that season, and I was quite frankly surprised they got as far as they did.

[Stevein2012]

7 hours ago, Leader said:

Well - you can look as how things possibly would have played out till the cows come home. All things are possible - when they're only possibilities - and it has nothing to do with my personal trust in AR or AJ. My personal beliefs or trust factors dont matter. I've read all the articles citing NFL averages and AJ YPC - got all that - and dont dispute any of it. All I'm saying is the game situation/score - the fact we were on our own 33 yard line down 3pts and there were 4+ minutes left - cant be discounted.

That - plus - and perhaps most importantly - its not like our offense was a fine oiled machine - which is why I posted the drive stats.

To go further - here are the last two drives BEFORE those listed above:

9:50mins left

1st & 10 at GB 45 - (9:50 - 3rd) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to D.Adams.
2nd & 10 at GB 45 - (9:41 - 3rd) A.Jones left end to GB 45 for no gain (J.Reed; A.Calitro).
3rd & 10 at GB 45 - (8:57 - 3rd) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers sacked at GB 40 for -5 yards (J.Martin).
4th & 15 at GB 40 - (8:21 - 3rd) J.Scott punts 40 yards to SEA 20, Center-H.Bradley, fair catch by T.Lockett.

6:36mins left

1st & 10 at GB 34 - (6:36 - 3rd) A.Rodgers pass short right to E.St. Brown ran ob at 50 for 16 yards.
1st & 10 at 50 - (6:03 - 3rd) A.Rodgers sacked at 50 for 0 yards (F.Clark).
2nd & 10 at 50 - (5:15 - 3rd) A.Jones right end to SEA 43 for 7 yards (B.McDougald; B.Wagner).
(4:31 - 3rd) Timeout #1 by GB at 04:31.
3rd & 3 at SEA 43 - (4:31 - 3rd) A.Rodgers sacked at SEA 49 for -6 yards (sack split by A.Calitro and J.Reed).
4th & 9 at SEA 49 - (3:55 - 3rd) J.Scott punts 46 yards to SEA 3, Center-H.Bradley, downed by GB-T.Brown.

In essence - a whole lot of nothing much / inconsistency on those drives as well.

So you and I can agree what SHOULD happen when having AR on the field. What I'm trying to point out by posting this data is that is wasnt happening.

Now - we can all surmise in our heads how that 4th and 2 play would or should have gone - but you cant divorce those fantasies from what actually was going on in the game with the offense and the very real possibility that we wouldnt have converted.

In which case (to repeat): the game situation/score - the fact we were on our own 33 yard line only down 3pts and there were 4+ minutes left - cant be discounted.

Not sure what you are getting at, you either convert 4th and 2 and continue the drive or punt and in best case scenario have to count on the offense to make a longer drive with less time and 0 TO.  If your concern is offensive inconsistency I'm not sure how you are more confident in the 2nd happening.

[Leader]

59 minutes ago, Stevein2012 said:

Not sure what you are getting at, you either convert 4th and 2 and continue the drive or punt and in best case scenario have to count on the offense to make a longer drive with less time and 0 TO.  If your concern is offensive inconsistency I'm not sure how you are more confident in the 2nd happening.

Thats fine. I've said all I can say about it. See what you wish. Not a problem.