BDL 2018 Week 11: Orlando Ospreys @ Sydney Dingos

[Whicker]

BDL 2018 Week 11

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both.

[Whicker]

Starter

Philip Rivers, QB

Alvin Kamara, RB

Odell Beckham, WR

Mike Evans, WR

Sterling Shepard, WR

Jonnu Smith, TE

Taylor Lewan, LT

Lane Johnson, RT (Q)

Ali Marpet, RG

Frank Ragnow, LG

Mike Pouncey, C

Bench

Chris Carson, RB

Tevin Coleman, RB

Allen Robinson, WR

Dante Pettis, WR

Mike Gesicki, TE

Trent Brown, RT

Garett Bolles, LT

Cameron Erving, G/C

Starter

T.J. Watt, ROLB

Joey Bosa, LOLB

Ndamukong Suh, RDE

Kenny Clark, NT

Allen Bailey, LDE

Bobby Wagner, MLB

Demario Davis, WLB

Jalen Ramsey, CB

Jaire Alexander, CB

Tashaun Gipson, SAF

Eddie Jackson, SAF

Bench

Clay Matthews, LOLB

Emmanuel Ogbah, ROLB

Henry Anderson, DE/NT

Fred Warner, MLB

Jatavis Brown, LB

James Bradberry,  CB

Joe Haden, CB

Antoine Bethea, SAF

 

 

 

QB1: Ben Roelthisberger
RB1: David Johnson
WR1: Golden Tate
WR2: Calvin Ridley
WR3: John Brown
TE: Jimmy Graham 
LT: Nate Solder
LG:  John Miller
C:  Cody Whitehair
RG: Brandon Brooks
RT: Chris Hubbard

Bench:

QB2: Dak Prescott
RB2: Austin Ekeler
RB3: Aaron Jones
WR4: Mike Williams 
WR5: LaQuan Treadwell
TE2: Vance McDonald
OL6: Mike Iupati
OL7: Dan Feeney

Sydney Defense:

LDE: Whitney Mercilus
3T:  Malik Jackson
DT:  Leonard Williams
RDE: Mario Addison
WLB: Alec Ogletree
MLB: Myles Jack
CB1: Byron Jones
CB2: Donte Jackson
CB3: Logan Ryan
FS:  Sean Davis
SS:  Reshad Jones 

Bench:

SLB: Kamalai Correa
RLB: Gerald Hodges
DE3: Alvin Dupree
DT3: Derek Wolfe
DT4: Brandon Mebane
CB4: Marcus Peters
CB5: Steven Nelson
S3: Vonn Bell

[Whicker]

Game Plan

Offense 

2 TE I-Form / 3 WR Single Back / 4 Wide Shotgun

Offensive Line

If Lane Johnson doesn't start, we move Trenton Brown up from the bench.

The Dingos have a decent defensive line while the heart of this defense is their linebackers, so we feel good with coverage assignments on the line with adding J. Smith and TE M. Gesicki to the line dependant upon the formation.  We'll use these guys to block mostly off the edge, but if the middle aren't pulling their weight, we'll bring Smith in as a blocking FB or just pull him in at the snap.

Passing

This week in 3 wide and 4 wide formations, we want our outside receivers getting deep, and with the added protection to the line we believe Rivers will have time needed to find one of these elite receivers open down field.  We hope to catch them in deep fading routes near the sideline to avoid safety cover 2 over the middle.  Sterling Shepard will man the slot, where we feel if the safeties get deep to cover our big boys, he'll find the gaps over the middle to keep the chains moving.  Depth at receiver for the 4th wideout, we get Allen Robinson back after having a great game last week, gaining over 100 and with 2 TD's.  Our plan is to spread them out and score score score.  Alvin Kamara will primarily play behind QB so the threat of him running is real in hopes of taking advantage of the play action and delayed handoffs.  He'll run short passing routes between the tackles and working his way outside.

Rushing

We'll run Kamara as the featured back giving him a heavy load this week, with Carson and Coleman giving him rest reps.  We'll use counters, misdirection and good old fashion power running, by using motion of the tight ends and receivers to confuse the defense and expose coverages.  With the fire power we bring at receiver, we feel we can find success using the draw in 3 wide and shotgun formations.    

 

Defense

34 Base and 425 Nickel Man-to-Man

Joey Bosa is scheduled to make his long anticipated return this week against the Broncos, so we're putting him in the game and back to work in rushing the quarterback.  Should it not happen Clay Matthews moves up from the bench.

Defensive Front 7 Blitz/Run D

Our mission in this game is to simply score more than our opponent and we feel that applying pressure to Ben is the way to do it.  We'll blitz Bosa and Watt off the edge, flipping them at times to mess with the offensive line.  However, we feel if Nate is getting the start again this week at LT we'll have success, this man just isn't cutting the mustard w/ the Giants.  We'll use zone blitzing to get our interior boys their fair share of the action, but their focus will be getting a heavy push up the middle designed to flush, while we blitz off the edge. 

Middle linebacker, Bobby Wagner will focus on stuffing the running game between the tackles while Davis will play the passing game against their backs, should they cross the LOS or slides to the sideline for a screen.

425 Line Change

Bosa, Suh, Clark, Matthews on the line, with Bobby Wagner and Watt at inside linebacker, utilizing Watt as an inside blitzer.

Passing

Blitz Blitz Blitz...  We don't want Big Ben to get relaxed in the pocket and we're willing to sacrifice giving up some yardage on the ground but to compliment our offense we feel that offensively we can score enough to force this team into the passing game where we can take advantage of the blitz.

Coverage assignments

Golden Tate - Jalen Ramsey

John Brown - James Bradberry

Calvin Ridley -  Jaire Alexander

Jimmy Graham - Tashaun Gipson

Fourth Receiver - Joe Haden

We'll play man coverage with single high safety support w/ Eddie Jackson.  Formations that don't include the TE Gibson will be used to spy in middle zone coverage.  

 

 

 

 

Gameplan:  Warning, may strain your eyeballs if you read at a slow pace.

Motivation:

• We're 2-8, we'll try this week to pull the upset against Orlando.

Sydney Offensive Strategy:

• We're going to come out throwing the ball early and often, we'll establish a deep passing game early and use our RBs/TEs to continue moving the chains via screens+checkdowns and using the middle of the field where Orlando is weakest.
• David Johnson will be a big piece of the puzzle here as we'll look to use him as a pass catcher/protect out of the backfield to help set up the offense, he'll more or less function as James Conner does for Pittsburgh.

Scheme;

• Hurry up offense focused on scoring early and putting Orlando in a hole they can't climb out of.

Formations;

• Shotgun, Single Back,2 back sets, I-Formation, 2 TE Sets, Spread, 4 wide, 3 wide etc. 

Pass to Run;

• 55% Pass to 45% Run.

The Passing Strategy: 

• Ben will have the chance to go up against a solid Orlando secondary this week, our main goal will be getting our WRs+TEs the ball early and often , Golden Tate will be our no.1 WR and will operate mostly out of the slot, he will play outside in 2 WR sets and he'll command 8+ targets no matter who covers him. 
• Calvin Ridley will be our no.2 WR and with the consistency he has shown for a rookie he should be able to beat whoever Orlando tries to cover him with. John Brown will be our no.3 WR and the main deep threat on offense, Brown will get a few deep shots from Ben so he can take advantage of an Orlando defense lacking the safeties to defend the deep ball. 
• Mike Williams will be our no.4 WR and will rotate in on 3rd downs and will be featured in the redzone quite a bit, we feel he can win jump-ball situations and make plays down the field with his size so he'll get a deep shot or two.
• Jimmy Graham+Vance McDonald will be featured heavily as we will look to use 2 TE sets quite a bit to help in the run game, they'll also command a lot of targets in the passing game as they will be our main redzone weapons and will be featured heavily over the middle of the field as well as be used to help in pass protection and in the running game.
• David Johnson will be our no.1 RB and will get 75% of the touches and be the bell-cow of our running game, he'll get somewhere north of 25+ touches though we wouldn't mind giving him 30+ if the game-script calls for it. 
• David Johnson will also be heavily featured as a pass catcher out of the backfield and will pass block if needed, we'll also use a TE to chip at the line or pass block to help against a very solid Orlando pass rush, Johnson playing in my offense will be used a lot better and be given the proper blocking/usage.
• Aaron Jones will get a lot more touches this week, I'd expect he'll get around 10 to show off his playmaking potential and if he makes big plays early it could lead to a 50-50 split with Johnson.
• I know my WRs can win their match-ups on the outside and in the slot, we should be able to play plays all game long and give Ben plenty of time to pick apart Orlando's defense using with the hurry up spread offense we'll be running this week.

The Running/Blocking Strategy: 

• Some changes to the o-line this week depending on who is healthy, we'll put a focus on running outside this week since we feel we can beat Orlando on the edge along with getting our RBs in space.
• David Johnson will split touches with Jones+Ekeler but I'd expect he'll get roughly 75% of the touches while our other RBs split touches with him.
• In the event(s) of an injury, Whitehair shifts to C/G, Feeney plays OG, Iupati plays OT etc. I'll most likely mention who plays where in the comments if not mentioned already.

TDLR:

• Let Ben work his magic, get David Johnson the ball in space, let our WRs+RBs+TEs take advantage of an Orlando defense that loves to be aggressive.

Sydney Defensive Strategy:

• We'll be playing mostly zone coverage this week in an effort to not over commit to defending Orlando's weapons, we'll focus on keeping them in front of us and making plays on the ball when possible.

Formations;

• 4-3, 4-2-5, Goaline, Dime, Cover 3, Cover 2, 2 Deep Safeties etc.

Scheme;

• Zone coverage for about 50% of the game, mixing in man here and there and our main base defense will be nickel.

Ratios:

• 50% Zone Coverage to 50% Man Coverage, blitzing on 15% of the snaps, heavy rotations on the d-line with no one playing more than 85% of the snaps. 

The Secondary Strategy: 

• Byron Jones will again be the no.1 CB this week and he'll cover Mike Evans with some help over the top on occasion we feel Jones is more than capable of covering Evans in man and zone, Marcus Peters was recently benched in favor of Donte Jackson who has played very well for a rookie CB, he will man the no.2 CB spot and will be tasked with covering ODB, he will of course be given help more often than Jones will be.
• Logan Ryan is the no.1 CB for the Titans and he'll man the slot this week, In 3 wide Ryan covers the slot with Jackson+Jones manning the outside positions, Peters comes in for 4 wide. 
• Covering Rivers no.1 WR is very important given his nature to force the ball to his top wideout, hence why Evans+ODB will be given extra attention.
• Our secondary is the strength of our defense and we feel we can limit Orlando's elite weapons in the passing game since we have the personnel to limit them and keep them from making plays downfield, plus them missing their biggest playmaker leaves them much weaker on offense since Gronk is out.
• Reshad Jones will be tasked with playing his usual SS role, he'll help cover in the redzone and on 3rd downs other than that he'll play his normal coverage assignments. Sean Davis will play FS and will be the deep center-fielder, however Reshad Jones will be in charge of coverage adjustments since we feel he's more suited to that.
• If an injury occurs Vonn Bell takes over at S, we'll mostly focus on playing a Cover 2 look in zone, with some man coverage mixed in. However we will of course mix this up with zone blitzes and other coverage, as well as extra emphasis on covering Evans+ODB since we feel like they're obviously Orlando's biggest threats.
• Orlando is probably going to come out throwing early and often so can they let Ryan establish the offense and try and figure out our defense early, we expect this and will counter this by changing out entire gameplan at halftime. If we have a lead at halftime we'll be fully aggressive in getting after Ryan and we'll dial up the blitzing.
•  Myles Jack+Lavonte David  Ogletree form one of the best LB duos in BDL and should be able to handle the responsibility of covering Orlando's RBs+TEs whenever given that assignment and are more than capable of containing Kamara+Coleman.

The Front Seven Strategy: 

• Orlando's RBs and o-line are very good, Orlando's o-line is one of the stronger units in BDL but they lack a true workhorse RB given Kamara is more of a pass catcher and Coleman has been the no.2 RB for most of his career and is injury prone.

TDLR;

• Read it. 

Special Teams:

• LaQuan Treadwell will return kicks and punts, Dak Prescott will line up at cheerleader, 

Sponsorship:

• The IRS. never skip out on paying taxes on golden statues.

[ny92mike]

@DingoLadd said,

Orlando's defense is weakest in the middle

Disagree; We've got two outstanding inside linebackers in Wagner and Davis and on the bench Fred Warner is having a outstanding rookie season and our nose tackle, Clark is playing at a very high level.

Orlando defense lacks safeties to cover the deep ball

Disagree; All three of our free safeties with Eddie Jackson has amassed 3 int to date.  Your receivers are good but not at a level where they demand double coverage the entire game.

Your game plans are so hard to follow.  25 to 30 attempts and the backups getting around 10 and your game plan is a  55% pass and your main goal is to get the WR's and TE's the ball.  Your plan is all over the place, respectfully.

I also didn't see much toward stopping the pass rush in your game plan.  You mention state that you'll be using 2 tight end sets quite a bit to help in the run game, and they'll be used a lot in the passing game in the red zone and heavily over the middle and used to help in pass protection and in the running game.  I definitely need to find a couple of tight ends that can do all of this.  These two guys are amazing guys do it all types.

Also, my quarterback isn't Matt Ryan, its Philip Rivers.

While Kamara isn't a power back, we don't need him to be.  He does just fine with his elusiveness and speed behind QB to gain over 600+ and 11 rushing TD's, however we do have Chris Carson at 222 lbs and Coleman is averaging solid numbers.  Honestly, I'd take my backs over your crop of Johnson and Jones.

 

   

 

[bcb1213]

Just a personal opinion Mike.  I know you're copy pasting your lineup from the sheets you created but trying to visualize your o line and defensive front is not enjoyable how you have them listed 

[ny92mike]

4 hours ago, bcb1213 said:

Just a personal opinion Mike.  I know you're copy pasting your lineup from the sheets you created but trying to visualize your o line and defensive front is not enjoyable how you have them listed 

I meant to switch it around so the positions would fall in order but forgot.

 

[SirA1]

10 hours ago, bcb1213 said:

Just a personal opinion Mike.  I know you're copy pasting your lineup from the sheets you created but trying to visualize your o line and defensive front is not enjoyable how you have them listed 

This. So much this.

[SirA1]

Performance - Orlando; Game Plan - TLDR; Match up - Orlando

Going Orlando. Golden Tate is in a bad situation IRL and this game with Ramsey covering him.

Orlando 33-17

[Xmad]

Orlando, Golden Tate gets erased but with Johnson and Jones hitting their stride Sydney would be smart to ride them into the ground, they keep it close but Orlando is just the better team here plus Ben was awful this week.

[DingoLadd]

On 11/19/2018 at 5:27 PM, ny92mike said:

@DingoLadd said,

Orlando's defense is weakest in the middle

Disagree; We've got two outstanding inside linebackers in Wagner and Davis and on the bench Fred Warner is having a outstanding rookie season and our nose tackle, Clark is playing at a very high level.

Orlando defense lacks safeties to cover the deep ball

Disagree; All three of our free safeties with Eddie Jackson has amassed 3 int to date.  Your receivers are good but not at a level where they demand double coverage the entire game.

Your game plans are so hard to follow.  25 to 30 attempts and the backups getting around 10 and your game plan is a  55% pass and your main goal is to get the WR's and TE's the ball.  Your plan is all over the place, respectfully.

I also didn't see much toward stopping the pass rush in your game plan.  You mention state that you'll be using 2 tight end sets quite a bit to help in the run game, and they'll be used a lot in the passing game in the red zone and heavily over the middle and used to help in pass protection and in the running game.  I definitely need to find a couple of tight ends that can do all of this.  These two guys are amazing guys do it all types.

Also, my quarterback isn't Matt Ryan, its Philip Rivers.

While Kamara isn't a power back, we don't need him to be.  He does just fine with his elusiveness and speed behind QB to gain over 600+ and 11 rushing TD's, however we do have Chris Carson at 222 lbs and Coleman is averaging solid numbers.  Honestly, I'd take my backs over your crop of Johnson and Jones.

 

   

 

I'm too hungover to give this a proper response, just know I acknowledge some of these and agree with a few. But oh boy are you wrong on your squad of medicore runners (Kamara's aces no denying that) over Johnson+Jones+Ekeler.

[Ragnarok]

Orlando.

[DingoLadd]

I just realized I voted Orlando. 

Dingo. 

[ny92mike]

9 minutes ago, DingoLadd said:

I just realized I voted Orlando. 

Dingo. 

You made the right pick...lol

[Whicker]

I like Sydney a lot but I like Orlando more

[WFLukic]

Orlando's just a bit better all over at the moment.