With the 12th pick in the 2019 NFL draft............

[GWH87]

1 minute ago, PACKRULE said:

it was serious even to name a few as you were quote staunch on saying all Bama players come out and suck which just isn't true is all. It's easy to pick the flaw but supporting it with any sort of fact can be the tough part. I really don't care, i think there are some good players there and they will produce in the NFL as some have been and continue to be doing now.

Ok

Trent Richardson, Mark Barron, OJ Howard, Dee Milliner, Chance Warmack, DJ Fluker, HHCD, Reuben Foster, Rolando McClain.... just for starters. I tried to stay within top 10-15 selections.

I get there's a few guys that hit but for the powerhouse they are there should be more. It means a couple things, its system based success, these guys (as stated before) have been coached to their ceiling already so they are maxed out, the overall talent on the field gives mixed results once they have to produce outside that system. If they are selected outside the top 50 I'm ok with it, but for top selections, especially top 15 it's a seriously hard no for me. Jones and maybe Marcell Dareus are the only 2 I can think of worthy of top 15 when they were picked there.

Not looking for "good" players in the first and even second round, you're looking for impact talent so appreciate you supporting my efforts. Hope this helped answer your question.

[PACKRULE]

1 minute ago, GWH87 said:

Ok

Trent Richardson, Mark Barron, OJ Howard, Dee Milliner, Chance Warmack, DJ Fluker, HHCD, Reuben Foster, Rolando McClain.... just for starters. I tried to stay within top 10-15 selections.

I get there's a few guys that hit but for the powerhouse they are there should be more. It means a couple things, its system based success, these guys (as stated before) have been coached to their ceiling already so they are maxed out, the overall talent on the field gives mixed results once they have to produce outside that system. If they are selected outside the top 50 I'm ok with it, but for top selections, especially top 15 it's a seriously hard no for me. Jones and maybe Marcell Dareus are the only 2 I can think of worthy of top 15 when they were picked there.

Not looking for "good" players in the first and even second round, you're looking for impact talent so appreciate you supporting my efforts. Hope this helped answer your question.

Albeit I may agree that some of these guys were over picked. Barron had a decent career, Fluker is still playing and has played allot for his teams. HHCD made a probowl with us. McClain played well back in Dallas with the exception of his off field troubles.

As you note we can agree of the over drafting which is on point but some of these guys are good players they just get hyped a bit too much and taken maybe too early.

[squire12]

4 minutes ago, GWH87 said:

Ok

Trent Richardson, Mark Barron, OJ Howard, Dee Milliner, Chance Warmack, DJ Fluker, HHCD, Reuben Foster, Rolando McClain.... just for starters. I tried to stay within top 10-15 selections.

I get there's a few guys that hit but for the powerhouse they are there should be more. It means a couple things, its system based success, these guys (as stated before) have been coached to their ceiling already so they are maxed out, the overall talent on the field gives mixed results once they have to produce outside that system. If they are selected outside the top 50 I'm ok with it, but for top selections, especially top 15 it's a seriously hard no for me. Jones and maybe Marcell Dareus are the only 2 I can think of worthy of top 15 when they were picked there.

Not looking for "good" players in the first and even second round, you're looking for impact talent so appreciate you supporting my efforts. Hope this helped answer your question.

Here is your top 15 players from Alabama 2006 to 2018.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2006&year_max=2018&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=15&pick_type=overall&college_id=alabama&conference=any&show=all&order_by=default

Rk	Year	Rnd	Pick	Player	Pos	DrAge	Tm	From	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	GS	College/Univ
1	2018	1	11	Minkah Fitzpatrick	S	21	MIA	2018	2018	0	0	1	0	16	11	Alabama	College Stats
2	2018	1	13	Da'Ron Payne	DT	21	WAS	2018	2018	0	0	1	0	16	16	Alabama	College Stats
3	2015	1	4	Amari Cooper	WR	21	OAK	2015	2018	0	2	4	24	61	56	Alabama	College Stats
4	2013	1	9	Dee Milliner	DB	21	NYJ	2013	2015	0	0	1	6	21	14	Alabama	College Stats
5	2013	1	10	Chance Warmack	G	21	TEN	2013	2018	0	0	3	21	68	51	Alabama	College Stats
6	2013	1	11	D.J. Fluker	T	22	SDG	2013	2018	0	0	5	31	78	74	Alabama
7	2012	1	3	Trent Richardson	RB	22	CLE	2012	2014	0	0	3	17	46	37	Alabama	College Stats
8	2012	1	7	Mark Barron	DB	22	TAM	2012	2018	0	0	5	30	104	93	Alabama	College Stats
9	2011	1	3	Marcell Dareus	DT	21	BUF	2011	2018	1	2	6	49	115	101	Alabama	College Stats
10	2011	1	6	Julio Jones	WR	22	ATL	2011	2018	2	6	7	77	111	110	Alabama	College Stats
11	2010	1	8	Rolando McClain	LB	21	OAK	2010	2015	0	0	5	26	65	61	Alabama	College Stats
12	2009	1	6	Andre Smith	T	22	CIN	2009	2018	0	0	6	42	110	93	Alabama	College Stats

 

Your list is off by a good number of players that were not drafted in the top 15.....HHCD, Howard, Foster

Richardson, Milliner, McClain and Barron are good takes as busts.  The rest are pretty solid and some are yet to be known.  

[PACKRULE]

4 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Here is your top 15 players from Alabama 2006 to 2018.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2006&year_max=2018&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=15&pick_type=overall&college_id=alabama&conference=any&show=all&order_by=default

Rk	Year	Rnd	Pick	Player	Pos	DrAge	Tm	From	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	GS	College/Univ
1	2018	1	11	Minkah Fitzpatrick	S	21	MIA	2018	2018	0	0	1	0	16	11	Alabama	College Stats
2	2018	1	13	Da'Ron Payne	DT	21	WAS	2018	2018	0	0	1	0	16	16	Alabama	College Stats
3	2015	1	4	Amari Cooper	WR	21	OAK	2015	2018	0	2	4	24	61	56	Alabama	College Stats
4	2013	1	9	Dee Milliner	DB	21	NYJ	2013	2015	0	0	1	6	21	14	Alabama	College Stats
5	2013	1	10	Chance Warmack	G	21	TEN	2013	2018	0	0	3	21	68	51	Alabama	College Stats
6	2013	1	11	D.J. Fluker	T	22	SDG	2013	2018	0	0	5	31	78	74	Alabama
7	2012	1	3	Trent Richardson	RB	22	CLE	2012	2014	0	0	3	17	46	37	Alabama	College Stats
8	2012	1	7	Mark Barron	DB	22	TAM	2012	2018	0	0	5	30	104	93	Alabama	College Stats
9	2011	1	3	Marcell Dareus	DT	21	BUF	2011	2018	1	2	6	49	115	101	Alabama	College Stats
10	2011	1	6	Julio Jones	WR	22	ATL	2011	2018	2	6	7	77	111	110	Alabama	College Stats
11	2010	1	8	Rolando McClain	LB	21	OAK	2010	2015	0	0	5	26	65	61	Alabama	College Stats
12	2009	1	6	Andre Smith	T	22	CIN	2009	2018	0	0	6	42	110	93	Alabama	College Stats

 

Your list is off by a good number of players that were not drafted in the top 15.....HHCD, Howard, Foster

Richardson, Milliner, McClain and Barron are good takes as busts.  The rest are pretty solid and some are yet to be known.  

I do believe GW's point has some validity more so on draft position rather than just bust rate. Bama's annual performance does lead to some overdrafting which Saban loves likely as it sure helps him recruit. With that said there are solid players from that program one must temper expectations and positional value though. Gute needs to land us good players starters and if we can at 12 a 10 year probowler please.

[KingOfTheNorth]

Every player is different. To write off a player because they came from Alabama is lazy. Do your research, analyze a player, assign the grade, and stick to your board. I don't care what school the player comes from if they can play.

[GWH87]

10 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Here is your top 15 players from Alabama 2006 to 2018.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2006&year_max=2018&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=15&pick_type=overall&college_id=alabama&conference=any&show=all&order_by=default

Rk	Year	Rnd	Pick	Player	Pos	DrAge	Tm	From	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	GS	College/Univ
1	2018	1	11	Minkah Fitzpatrick	S	21	MIA	2018	2018	0	0	1	0	16	11	Alabama	College Stats
2	2018	1	13	Da'Ron Payne	DT	21	WAS	2018	2018	0	0	1	0	16	16	Alabama	College Stats
3	2015	1	4	Amari Cooper	WR	21	OAK	2015	2018	0	2	4	24	61	56	Alabama	College Stats
4	2013	1	9	Dee Milliner	DB	21	NYJ	2013	2015	0	0	1	6	21	14	Alabama	College Stats
5	2013	1	10	Chance Warmack	G	21	TEN	2013	2018	0	0	3	21	68	51	Alabama	College Stats
6	2013	1	11	D.J. Fluker	T	22	SDG	2013	2018	0	0	5	31	78	74	Alabama
7	2012	1	3	Trent Richardson	RB	22	CLE	2012	2014	0	0	3	17	46	37	Alabama	College Stats
8	2012	1	7	Mark Barron	DB	22	TAM	2012	2018	0	0	5	30	104	93	Alabama	College Stats
9	2011	1	3	Marcell Dareus	DT	21	BUF	2011	2018	1	2	6	49	115	101	Alabama	College Stats
10	2011	1	6	Julio Jones	WR	22	ATL	2011	2018	2	6	7	77	111	110	Alabama	College Stats
11	2010	1	8	Rolando McClain	LB	21	OAK	2010	2015	0	0	5	26	65	61	Alabama	College Stats
12	2009	1	6	Andre Smith	T	22	CIN	2009	2018	0	0	6	42	110	93	Alabama	College Stats

 

Your list is off by a good number of players that were not drafted in the top 15.....HHCD, Howard, Foster

Richardson, Milliner, McClain and Barron are good takes as busts.  The rest are pretty solid and some are yet to be known.  

Appreciate you supporting my talk track with this note, IF you did read I said I tried to stay within top 15, not that I DID. But other than that thanks for the help.

Top 15 picks should be games changers, good players are busts in my mind top 15. Good players are roster spot fillers after the second round.

Think AJ Hawk. Good player, definitely not top 5 warranted. 

Hind sight is always 20/20 but for my money Bama won't get my top 15 or even top 50 picks. I'm looking for great with the selection and the numbers from Alabama with our boys list here say it's roughly a 10% success rate to get great by drafting Bama. That number goes down even more when you open up the pick range to the entire first round.

Hightower, Julio, Dareus & maybe Cooper depending on how Dallas uses him are what I can find as possibles. CJ Mosely might be a stretch too.

[GWH87]

13 minutes ago, KingOfTheNorth said:

Every player is different. To write off a player because they came from Alabama is lazy. Do your research, analyze a player, assign the grade, and stick to your board. I don't care what school the player comes from if they can play.

Agree with your point here, part of the point we've been making is Bama #s for players are skewed due to talent level on the field. They overwhelm opponents typically, which makes it easier to be productive at said position. Means they are at their ceiling when selected, you want higher ceilings in top 15 in hopes the player will be great. Bama already has these guys maxed, so it's not lazy it's factual.

[KingOfTheNorth]

1 minute ago, GWH87 said:

Agree with your point here, part of the point we've been making is Bama #s for players are skewed due to talent level on the field. They overwhelm opponents typically, which makes it easier to be productive at said position. Means they are at their ceiling when selected, you want higher ceilings in top 15 in hopes the player will be great. Bama already has these guys maxed, so it's not lazy it's factual.

It's lazy to not analyze a player because they are at Alabama. I am not saying that's what your doing, but that's what my point was. If after analyzing the player you determine their not worth top 15, I cant blame you. But if you don't even look at Alabama players who are projected top 15 because of the past drafts with Alabama. You could be missing a legit prospect for no reason. It's lazy scouting in my book.

[ReasonablySober]

Dexter Lawrence should be getting a lot more love here, unless you think he's long gone at #12.

[squire12]

36 minutes ago, GWH87 said:

Appreciate you supporting my talk track with this note, IF you did read I said I tried to stay within top 15, not that I DID. But other than that thanks for the help.

Top 15 picks should be games changers, good players are busts in my mind top 15. Good players are roster spot fillers after the second round.

Think AJ Hawk. Good player, definitely not top 5 warranted. 

Hind sight is always 20/20 but for my money Bama won't get my top 15 or even top 50 picks. I'm looking for great with the selection and the numbers from Alabama with our boys list here say it's roughly a 10% success rate to get great by drafting Bama. That number goes down even more when you open up the pick range to the entire first round.

Hightower, Julio, Dareus & maybe Cooper depending on how Dallas uses him are what I can find as possibles. CJ Mosely might be a stretch too.

SO give me a school that you feel produces players for NFL success better than Alabama?

I think you are seeing a lot of Alabama players get drafted fairly high (right or wrong) and seeing some of them bust, when it really may be their bust rate is not any different that the typical rates for any round and any school.  Just they are pushing out more "draftable" players and are a marquee team in NCAA for a decade, so the apparent link is made.

[Golfman]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

I'll add two to the list...

Jonah Williams, OT.

Clellin Ferrell, EDGE.

Need Lock and Haskins to vault up the board at QB.  Maybe slide a WR in there as well.

You know a corner or two will go high as well.

#12 is a pretty good spot to pick.

Not sure on the OT. He's too small to kick inside for a year IMO and not sure I'd draft a guy to take over in year two at RT. I think you can get a tackle you can kick inside for a year with the NO pick or round 2.

Ferrell is going to be interesting at the combine. I don't see an explosive athlete. He's got long arms though to keep blockers off of him. I think he's going to be solid, but not sure he's a perennial double digit sack guy. 

[Golfman]

51 minutes ago, ReasonablySober said:

Dexter Lawrence should be getting a lot more love here, unless you think he's long gone at #12.

Not sure why we'd take a NT at 12? Not sure I'd take him in round 2 to be honest. We have Clark and Lancaster one is a stud and the other is quite adequate. 

[GWH87]

12 minutes ago, squire12 said:

SO give me a school that you feel produces players for NFL success better than Alabama?

I think you are seeing a lot of Alabama players get drafted fairly high (right or wrong) and seeing some of them bust, when it really may be their bust rate is not any different that the typical rates for any round and any school.  Just they are pushing out more "draftable" players and are a marquee team in NCAA for a decade, so the apparent link is made.

Since 2007, Wisconsin has had 1 first round pick that's been a bust Gabe Carimi... otherwise you have TJ Watt, Ryan Ramcyzk, Melvin Gordon, Travis Frederick, Kevin Zeitler, JJ Watt, Joe Thomas..... That's before getting into players post 1st round that have become great / above average players. 88% hit

Since 2010 Ohio St has had first round flame outs of Beanie Wells, Bradley Roby, Daron Lee, Taylor Decker, Eli Apple, Gareon Conley, players that hit Malcom Jenkins, Cam Heyward, Ryan Shazier, Zeke Elliot, Joey Bosa, Malik Hooker, Marshon Lattimore, Denzel Ward (Billy Price is a TBD) 60% hit

Since 2009 Georgia flame outs, Knowshon Moreno, Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree,  Hits Matt Stafford, AJ Green, Todd Gurley, Leonard Floyd, Sony Michel, Roquan Smith (Isaiah Wynn TBD) 60% hit

Since 2007 Oklahoma flame outs Jermaine Gresham hits, Adrain Peterson, Trent Williams, Gerald McCoy, Sam Bradford, Lane Johnson, Baker Mayfield. 86% hit

Since 2007 Florida St flame outs Patrick Robinson, Christian Ponder, EJ Manuel, Bjorn Werner, Kelvin Benjamin, Cam Erving hits Lawrence Timmons, Xavier Rhodes, Jameis Winston, Jalen Ramsey, Derwin James. 45% hit

Since 2011 LSU flame outs Barkevious Mingo, Eric Reid, Michael Brockers,  hits Leo Fornette, Jamal Adams, Tre'Davious White, Odell Beckham, Mo Claiborne, Patrick Peterson.  66% hit

Since 2007 Texas flame outs Aaron Ross, Kenny Vaccaro hits Michael Griffin, Brian Orakpo, Earl Thomas, Malcom Brown. 66% hit

Since 2011 Texas A&M flame outs Ryan Tannehill,  Johhny Manziel, Cedric Ogbeuhi, Germain Ifedi hits Von Miller, Luke Jockel, Mike Evans, Jake Matthews, Myles Garrett. 55% hit

It's not just Alabama, I'd say you could lump USC in there too, Miami even when they produced like Alabama in years past. Argument is that it seems Alabama "may" produce more talent but their system is what makes the players truly great.

When you have a 1st round talent at other schools your hit rate is more than likely going to go up because their performance is more individually based that system. Alabamas hit rate is sub 20% so I stand by my statement, not sure how much more numbers based facts are needed but my point is incredibly accurate. Sorry to the Bama lovers.

 

[Arthur Penske]

Hopefully he goes in the top 11

 

 

[Golfman]

11 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

Hopefully he goes in the top 11

 

 

Reach for those QB's please, R-E-A-C-H! ! ! ! ! !