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With the 12th pick in the 2019 NFL draft............

Golfman

By Golfman
in Green Bay Packers

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Sasquatch

Sasquatch

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Golfman said:

Reach for those QB's please, R-E-A-C-H! ! ! ! ! ! 

Read something just recently that more QB’s will begin to declare their intentions to enter the draft, as this might be a better year for them than next.  Not that their entry will improve the QB pool this year, but as hype around some of these guys grows, along with some good showings at the combine, you might see some teams over-reach early the draft.  We can hope, anyways.

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squire12

squire12

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, GWH87 said:

Since 2007, Wisconsin has had 1 first round pick that's been a bust Gabe Carimi... otherwise you have TJ Watt, Ryan Ramcyzk, Melvin Gordon, Travis Frederick, Kevin Zeitler, JJ Watt, Joe Thomas..... That's before getting into players post 1st round that have become great / above average players. 88% hit

Since 2010 Ohio St has had first round flame outs of Beanie Wells, Bradley Roby, Daron Lee, Taylor Decker, Eli Apple, Gareon Conley, players that hit Malcom Jenkins, Cam Heyward, Ryan Shazier, Zeke Elliot, Joey Bosa, Malik Hooker, Marshon Lattimore, Denzel Ward (Billy Price is a TBD) 60% hit

Since 2009 Georgia flame outs, Knowshon Moreno, Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree,  Hits Matt Stafford, AJ Green, Todd Gurley, Leonard Floyd, Sony Michel, Roquan Smith (Isaiah Wynn TBD) 60% hit

Since 2007 Oklahoma flame outs Jermaine Gresham hits, Adrain Peterson, Trent Williams, Gerald McCoy, Sam Bradford, Lane Johnson, Baker Mayfield. 86% hit

Since 2007 Florida St flame outs Patrick Robinson, Christian Ponder, EJ Manuel, Bjorn Werner, Kelvin Benjamin, Cam Erving hits Lawrence Timmons, Xavier Rhodes, Jameis Winston, Jalen Ramsey, Derwin James. 45% hit

Since 2011 LSU flame outs Barkevious Mingo, Eric Reid, Michael Brockers,  hits Leo Fornette, Jamal Adams, Tre'Davious White, Odell Beckham, Mo Claiborne, Patrick Peterson.  66% hit

Since 2007 Texas flame outs Aaron Ross, Kenny Vaccaro hits Michael Griffin, Brian Orakpo, Earl Thomas, Malcom Brown. 66% hit

Since 2011 Texas A&M flame outs Ryan Tannehill,  Johhny Manziel, Cedric Ogbeuhi, Germain Ifedi hits Von Miller, Luke Jockel, Mike Evans, Jake Matthews, Myles Garrett. 55% hit

It's not just Alabama, I'd say you could lump USC in there too, Miami even when they produced like Alabama in years past. Argument is uthat it seems Alabama "may" produce more talent but their system is what makes the players truly great.

When you have a 1st round talent at other schools your hit rate is more than likely going to go up because their performance is more individually based that system. Alabamas hit rate is sub 20% so I stand by my statement, not sure how much more numbers based facts are needed but my point is incredibly accurate. Sorry to the Bama lovers.

 

Here is the full list of Alabama 1st round picks since 2006.  If you think their hit rate is sub 20% you are crazy.  Lets leave out the last 2 years draft as it is too soon to call them busts.

Hits:  Kelly, Cooper, Mosley, HHCD, Fluker, hightower, Dareus, Jones, Carpenter, Ingram, Jackson

11 out of 18 is pushing 60%.  

Rk Year Rnd Pick Player Pos DrAge Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV G GS College/Univ  
1 2018 1 11 Minkah Fitzpatrick S 21 MIA 2018 2018 0 0 1 0 16 11 Alabama College Stats
2 2018 1 13 Da'Ron Payne DT 21 WAS 2018 2018 0 0 1 0 16 16 Alabama College Stats
3 2018 1 22 Rashaan Evans ILB 22 TEN 2018 2018 0 0 0 0 15 7 Alabama College Stats
4 2018 1 26 Calvin Ridley WR 23 ATL 2018 2018 0 0 0 0 16 5 Alabama College Stats
5 2017 1 16 Marlon Humphrey CB 21 BAL 2017 2018 0 0 1 3 30 13 Alabama College Stats
6 2017 1 17 Jonathan Allen DE 22 WAS 2017 2018 0 0 1 2 21 21 Alabama College Stats
7 2017 1 19 O.J. Howard TE 22 TAM 2017 2018 0 0 2 3 24 22 Alabama College Stats
8 2017 1 31 Reuben Foster LB 23 SFO 2017 2018 0 0 1 5 16 16 Alabama College Stats
9 2016 1 18 Ryan Kelly C 23 IND 2016 2018 0 0 2 12 35 35 Alabama College Stats
10 2015 1 4 Amari Cooper WR 21 OAK 2015 2018 0 2 4 24 61 56 Alabama College Stats
11 2014 1 17 C.J. Mosley LB 22 BAL 2014 2018 0 4 5 47 77 77 Alabama College Stats
12 2014 1 21 Ha Ha Clinton-Dix DB 21 GNB 2014 2018 0 1 5 24 80 74 Alabama College Stats
13 2013 1 9 Dee Milliner DB 21 NYJ 2013 2015 0 0 1 6 21 14 Alabama College Stats
14 2013 1 10 Chance Warmack G 21 TEN 2013 2018 0 0 3 21 68 51 Alabama College Stats
15 2013 1 11 D.J. Fluker T 22 SDG 2013 2018 0 0 5 31 78 74 Alabama  
16 2012 1 3 Trent Richardson RB 22 CLE 2012 2014 0 0 3 17 46 37 Alabama College Stats
17 2012 1 7 Mark Barron DB 22 TAM 2012 2018 0 0 5 30 104 93 Alabama College Stats
18 2012 1 17 Dre Kirkpatrick DB 22 CIN 2012 2018 0 0 4 23 93 61 Alabama College Stats
19 2012 1 25 Dont'a Hightower LB 22 NWE 2012 2018 0 1 6 41 87 84 Alabama College Stats
20 2011 1 3 Marcell Dareus DT 21 BUF 2011 2018 1 2 6 49 115 101 Alabama College Stats
21 2011 1 6 Julio Jones WR 22 ATL 2011 2018 2 6 7 77 111 110 Alabama College Stats
22 2011 1 25 James Carpenter T 22 SEA 2011 2018 0 0 7 37 103 97 Alabama College Stats
23 2011 1 28 Mark Ingram RB 21 NOR 2011 2018 0 2 4 46 106 64 Alabama College Stats
24 2010 1 8 Rolando McClain LB 21 OAK 2010 2015 0 0 5 26 65 61 Alabama College Stats
25 2010 1 20 Kareem Jackson DB 22 HOU 2010 2018 0 0 8 36 132 124 Alabama College Stats
26 2009 1 6 Andre Smith T 22 CIN 2009 2018 0 0 6 42 110 93 Alabama
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squire12

squire12

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1 minute ago, squire12 said:

Since 2009 Georgia flame outs, Knowshon Moreno, Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree,  Hits Matt Stafford, AJ Green, Todd Gurley, Leonard Floyd, Sony Michel, Roquan Smith (Isaiah Wynn TBD) 60% hit

Since 2007 Oklahoma flame outs Jermaine Gresham hits, Adrain Peterson, Trent Williams, Gerald McCoy, Sam Bradford, Lane Johnson, Baker Mayfield. 86% hit

How the hell you list Alec Ogletree as a flame out but have Lane Johnson as a hit.   2013 1st round picks sorted by CaV.  Ogletree higher than Lane Johnson and drafted 20+ slots later.

Your agenda is established, your criteria,  methods and assessments are faulty on this one

Rk Year Rnd Pick Player Pos DrAge Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV
▼ 		G GS College/Univ  
1 2013 1 31 Travis Frederick C 22 DAL 2013 2017 1 4 5 47 80 80 Wisconsin College Stats
2 2013 1 13 Sheldon Richardson DT 22 NYJ 2013 2018 0 1 5 43 89 87 Missouri College Stats
3 2013 1 27 DeAndre Hopkins WR 21 HOU 2013 2018 1 3 6 40 95 95 Clemson College Stats
4 2013 1 30 Alec Ogletree LB 21 STL 2013 2018 0 0 5 38 80 80 Georgia College Stats
5 2013 1 1 Eric Fisher T 22 KAN 2013 2018 0 1 6 36 94 90 Central Michigan  
6 2013 1 5 Ezekiel Ansah DE 24 DET 2013 2018 0 1 5 36 80 73 BYU College Stats
7 2013 1 20 Kyle Long G 24 CHI 2013 2018 0 3 6 36 73 72 Oregon  
8 2013 1 4 Lane Johnson T 23 PHI 2013 2018 1 1 5 34 80 80 Oklahoma  
9 2013 1 25 Xavier Rhodes DB 23 MIN 2013 2018 1 2 5 32 89 82 Florida St. College Stats
10 2013 1 11 D.J. Fluker T 22 SDG 2013 2018 0 0 5 31 78 74 Alabama  
11 2013 1 14 Star Lotulelei DT 23 CAR 2013 2018 0 0 5 31 92 91 Utah College Stats
12 2013 1 22 Desmond Trufant DB 22 ATL 2013 2018 0 1 6 28 88 88 Washington College Stats
13 2013 1 28 Sylvester Williams DT 24 DEN 2013 2018 0 0 4 27 89 63 North Carolina College Stats
14 2013 1 18 Eric Reid DB 21 SFO 2013 2018 0 1 5 26 83 82 LSU College Stats
15 2013 1 19 Justin Pugh T 23 NYG 2013 2018 0 0 4 26 70 70 Syracuse College Stats
16 2013 1 2 Luke Joeckel T 21 JAX 2013 2017 0 0 3 22 50 50 Texas A&M College Stats
17 2013 1 8 Tavon Austin WR 23 STL 2013 2018 0 0 4 22 82 50 West Virginia College Stats
18 2013 1 15 Kenny Vaccaro DB 22 NOR 2013 2018 0 0 6 22 81 80 Texas College Stats
19 2013 1 10 Chance Warmack G 21 TEN 2013 2018 0 0 3 21 68 51 Alabama College Stats
20 2013 1 29 Cordarrelle Patterson WR 22 MIN 2013 2018 2 2 1 21 95 29 Tennessee College Stats
21 2013 1 17 Jarvis Jones LB 23 PIT 2013 2016 0 0 2 18 50 35 Georgia College Stats
22 2013 1 6 Barkevious Mingo LB 22 CLE 2013 2018 0 0 2 16 94 37 LSU College Stats
23 2013 1 7 Jonathan Cooper G 23 ARI 2014 2018 0 0 2 13 46 31 North Carolina College Stats
24 2013 1 21 Tyler Eifert TE 22 CIN 2013 2018 0 1 2 13 43 32 Notre Dame College Stats
25 2013 1 23 Sharrif Floyd DT 21 MIN 2013 2016 0 0 2 13 44 24 Florida College Stats
26 2013 1 32 Matt Elam DB 22 BAL 2013 2016 0 0 2 12 41 26 Florida College Stats
27 2013 1 12 D.J. Hayden DB 23 OAK 2013 2018 0 0 1 10 71 32 Houston College Stats
28 2013 1 16 EJ Manuel QB 23 BUF 2013 2017 0 0 1 10 30 18 Florida St. College Stats
29 2013 1 24 Bjoern Werner DE 23 IND 2013 2015 0 0 1 10 38 16 Florida St. College Stats
30 2013 1 26 Datone Jones DE 23 GNB 2013 2018 0 0 0 10 67 9 UCLA College Stats
31 2013 1 9 Dee Milliner DB 21 NYJ 2013 2015 0 0 1 6 21 14 Alabama College Stats
32 2013 1 3 Dion Jordan DE 23 MIA 2013 2018 0 0 0 4 43 4 Oregon
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hitnhope

hitnhope

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Posted

hhcd and fluker are not hits in my opinion.

Fluker busted out in SD and with the Giants.   SD didn't get a good return for their pick.

HHCD was at best a player that was over rated by many.   Always a  poor tackler, and unwilling hitter. He fell into some int's to get an undeserved pro bowl.  

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pacman5252

pacman5252

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Posted

HHCD was a solid player for us and is going to be in the league for another 4-6 years. For a late first round pick, that is pretty good, especially in that class (not a ton of quality guys left on the board after him).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_NFL_Draft

 

Eddie Lacy was also a stud for us before he ate himself out of the league. 3000 yards from scrimmage his first 2 years (he was more talented than any RB we've had since Ahman Green). Too bad he didn't have a weight clause in his rookie deal.

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squire12

squire12

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1 hour ago, hitnhope said:

hhcd and fluker are not hits in my opinion.

Fluker busted out in SD and with the Giants.   SD didn't get a good return for their pick.

HHCD was at best a player that was over rated by many.   Always a  poor tackler, and unwilling hitter. He fell into some int's to get an undeserved pro bowl.  

HHCD was the 21st pick in 2014, ranked 15th of that 1st round based on CaV.  Maybe he outplayed his draft slot, but some can't get past their bias.

Rk Year Rnd Pick Player Pos DrAge Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV
▼ 		G GS QBrec Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ  
1 2014 1 13 Aaron Donald DT 23 STL 2014 2018 3 5 5 57 78 74                           59.5 Pittsburgh College Stats
2 2014 1 17 C.J. Mosley LB 22 BAL 2014 2018 0 4 5 47 77 77                         9 8.5 Alabama College Stats
3 2014 1 5 Khalil Mack LB 23 OAK 2014 2018 2 4 5 45 78 77                         2 53.0 Buffalo College Stats
4 2014 1 16 Zack Martin G 23 DAL 2014 2018 2 5 5 45 78 78                             Notre Dame College Stats
5 2014 1 3 Blake Bortles QB 22 JAX 2014 2018 0 0 5 40 75 73 24-49-0 1561 2632 17646 103 75 281 1775 8 1 20 1     Central Florida College Stats
6 2014 1 20 Brandin Cooks WR 20 NOR 2014 2018 0 0 4 36 74 63             40 229 2 360 5147 32     Oregon St. College Stats
7 2014 1 6 Jake Matthews T 22 ATL 2014 2018 0 0 5 35 79 79                             Texas A&M College Stats
8 2014 1 9 Anthony Barr LB 22 MIN 2014 2018 0 4 5 35 71 71                         1 13.5 UCLA College Stats
9 2014 1 12 Odell Beckham WR 21 NYG 2014 2018 0 3 4 34 59 56   2 3 106 2 0 15 74 0 390 5476 44     LSU College Stats
10 2014 1 7 Mike Evans WR 21 TAM 2014 2018 0 1 5 33 77 76                   395 6103 40     Texas A&M College Stats
11 2014 1 11 Taylor Lewan T 23 TEN 2014 2018 0 3 4 29 73 68                   1 10 1     Michigan College Stats
12 2014 1 1 Jadeveon Clowney DE 21 HOU 2014 2018 0 3 4 28 62 55                           29.0 South Carolina College Stats
13 2014 1 15 Ryan Shazier LB 22 PIT 2014 2017 0 2 3 27 46 41                         7 7.0 Ohio St. College Stats
14 2014 1 4 Sammy Watkins WR 21 BUF 2014 2018 0 0 5 25 62 60             8 61 0 232 3571 28     Clemson College Stats
15 2014 1 21 Ha Ha Clinton-Dix DB 21 GNB 2014 2018 0 1 5 24 80 74                         14 5.5 Alabama College Stats
16 2014 1 19 Ja'Wuan James T 22 MIA 2014 2018 0 0 4 22 62 62                             Tennessee College Stats
17 2014 1 32 Teddy Bridgewater QB 21 MIN 2014 2018 0 1 2 22 35 29 17-12-0 565 874 6268 29 23 105 403 4           Louisville College Stats
18 2014 1 27 Deone Bucannon DB 22 ARI 2014 2018 0 0 3 21 70 56                         2 7.0 Washington St.  
19 2014 1 28 Kelvin Benjamin WR 23 CAR 2014 2018 0 0 4 20 61 52                   209 3021 20     Florida St. College Stats
20 2014 1 2 Greg Robinson T 21 STL 2014 2018 0 0 4 18 68 56                             Auburn College Stats
21 2014 1 10 Eric Ebron TE 21 DET 2014 2018 0 1 3 16 72 45   0 1 0 0 0 4 -7 2 252 2820 24     North Carolina College Stats
22 2014 1 14 Kyle Fuller DB 22 CHI 2014 2018 0 1 4 16 64 62                         15   Virginia Tech College Stats
23 2014 1 18 Calvin Pryor DB 22 NYJ 2014 2017 0 0 3 14 46 38                         2 0.5 Louisville College Stats
24 2014 1 23 Dee Ford LB 23 KAN 2014 2018 0 1 2 14 67 41                           30.5 Auburn College Stats
25 2014 1 25 Jason Verrett DB 23 SDG 2014 2017 0 1 1 12 25 23                         5   TCU College Stats
26 2014 1 31 Bradley Roby DB 22 DEN 2014 2018 0 0 1 10 79 29                         7 3.0 Ohio St. College Stats
27 2014 1 30 Jimmie Ward DB 23 SFO 2014 2018 0 0 1 9 51 31                         2 2.0 Northern Illinois College Stats
28 2014 1 24 Darqueze Dennard DB 22 CIN 2014 2018 0 0 0 8 68 19                         3 3.0 Michigan St. College Stats
29 2014 1 29 Dominique Easley DT 22 NWE 2014 2018 0 0 0 6 41 6                         1 6.5 Florida College Stats
30 2014 1 22 Johnny Manziel QB 21 CLE 2014 2015 0 0 0 5 15 8 2-6-0 147 258 1675 7 7 46 259 1           Texas A&M College Stats
31 2014 1 8 Justin Gilbert DB 22 CLE 2014 2016 0 0 0 4 35 3                         1   Oklahoma St. College Stats
32 2014 1 26 Marcus Smith LB 22 PHI 2014 2018 0 0 0 3 53 0                           6.5 Louisville
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TheOnlyThing

TheOnlyThing

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Posted
38 minutes ago, squire12 said:

HHCD was the 21st pick in 2014, ranked 15th of that 1st round based on CaV.  Maybe he outplayed his draft slot, but some can't get past their bias.

Rk Year Rnd Pick Player Pos DrAge Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV
▼ 		G GS QBrec Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ  
1 2014 1 13 Aaron Donald DT 23 STL 2014 2018 3 5 5 57 78 74                           59.5 Pittsburgh College Stats
2 2014 1 17 C.J. Mosley LB 22 BAL 2014 2018 0 4 5 47 77 77                         9 8.5 Alabama College Stats
3 2014 1 5 Khalil Mack LB 23 OAK 2014 2018 2 4 5 45 78 77                         2 53.0 Buffalo College Stats
4 2014 1 16 Zack Martin G 23 DAL 2014 2018 2 5 5 45 78 78                             Notre Dame College Stats
5 2014 1 3 Blake Bortles QB 22 JAX 2014 2018 0 0 5 40 75 73 24-49-0 1561 2632 17646 103 75 281 1775 8 1 20 1     Central Florida College Stats
6 2014 1 20 Brandin Cooks WR 20 NOR 2014 2018 0 0 4 36 74 63             40 229 2 360 5147 32     Oregon St. College Stats
7 2014 1 6 Jake Matthews T 22 ATL 2014 2018 0 0 5 35 79 79                             Texas A&M College Stats
8 2014 1 9 Anthony Barr LB 22 MIN 2014 2018 0 4 5 35 71 71                         1 13.5 UCLA College Stats
9 2014 1 12 Odell Beckham WR 21 NYG 2014 2018 0 3 4 34 59 56   2 3 106 2 0 15 74 0 390 5476 44     LSU College Stats
10 2014 1 7 Mike Evans WR 21 TAM 2014 2018 0 1 5 33 77 76                   395 6103 40     Texas A&M College Stats
11 2014 1 11 Taylor Lewan T 23 TEN 2014 2018 0 3 4 29 73 68                   1 10 1     Michigan College Stats
12 2014 1 1 Jadeveon Clowney DE 21 HOU 2014 2018 0 3 4 28 62 55                           29.0 South Carolina College Stats
13 2014 1 15 Ryan Shazier LB 22 PIT 2014 2017 0 2 3 27 46 41                         7 7.0 Ohio St. College Stats
14 2014 1 4 Sammy Watkins WR 21 BUF 2014 2018 0 0 5 25 62 60             8 61 0 232 3571 28     Clemson College Stats
15 2014 1 21 Ha Ha Clinton-Dix DB 21 GNB 2014 2018 0 1 5 24 80 74                         14 5.5 Alabama College Stats
16 2014 1 19 Ja'Wuan James T 22 MIA 2014 2018 0 0 4 22 62 62                             Tennessee College Stats
17 2014 1 32 Teddy Bridgewater QB 21 MIN 2014 2018 0 1 2 22 35 29 17-12-0 565 874 6268 29 23 105 403 4           Louisville College Stats
18 2014 1 27 Deone Bucannon DB 22 ARI 2014 2018 0 0 3 21 70 56                         2 7.0 Washington St.  
19 2014 1 28 Kelvin Benjamin WR 23 CAR 2014 2018 0 0 4 20 61 52                   209 3021 20     Florida St. College Stats
20 2014 1 2 Greg Robinson T 21 STL 2014 2018 0 0 4 18 68 56                             Auburn College Stats
21 2014 1 10 Eric Ebron TE 21 DET 2014 2018 0 1 3 16 72 45   0 1 0 0 0 4 -7 2 252 2820 24     North Carolina College Stats
22 2014 1 14 Kyle Fuller DB 22 CHI 2014 2018 0 1 4 16 64 62                         15   Virginia Tech College Stats
23 2014 1 18 Calvin Pryor DB 22 NYJ 2014 2017 0 0 3 14 46 38                         2 0.5 Louisville College Stats
24 2014 1 23 Dee Ford LB 23 KAN 2014 2018 0 1 2 14 67 41                           30.5 Auburn College Stats
25 2014 1 25 Jason Verrett DB 23 SDG 2014 2017 0 1 1 12 25 23                         5   TCU College Stats
26 2014 1 31 Bradley Roby DB 22 DEN 2014 2018 0 0 1 10 79 29                         7 3.0 Ohio St. College Stats
27 2014 1 30 Jimmie Ward DB 23 SFO 2014 2018 0 0 1 9 51 31                         2 2.0 Northern Illinois College Stats
28 2014 1 24 Darqueze Dennard DB 22 CIN 2014 2018 0 0 0 8 68 19                         3 3.0 Michigan St. College Stats
29 2014 1 29 Dominique Easley DT 22 NWE 2014 2018 0 0 0 6 41 6                         1 6.5 Florida College Stats
30 2014 1 22 Johnny Manziel QB 21 CLE 2014 2015 0 0 0 5 15 8 2-6-0 147 258 1675 7 7 46 259 1           Texas A&M College Stats
31 2014 1 8 Justin Gilbert DB 22 CLE 2014 2016 0 0 0 4 35 3                         1   Oklahoma St. College Stats
32 2014 1 26 Marcus Smith LB 22 PHI 2014 2018 0 0 0 3 53 0                           6.5 Louisville

So does Blake Bortles being ranked #5 among all 2014 first round picks give anyone else pause regarding the reliability of utilizing CaV as a measurement of the "success" of a particular draft pick?

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hitnhope

hitnhope

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Posted

I don't think it is a bias to think hhcd was a miss.   We aren't signing a 1st round pick to a second contract. 

He played on several bad defenses that allowed him to register stats while still playing poorly. 

Perhaps I am misunderstanding CAR av, but isn't that heavily based on stats rather than true impact?

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Golfman

Golfman

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Posted
14 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Not looking it up, but wasn't he close to leading the league in picks this year?

Three with us and none with Washington. I don't see Washington keeping him. I think they let him walk. 

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