Tk3 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 1 minute ago, pwny said: Why would anyone in their right mind buy three tags at that price when you can buy them extremely cheaper separately? Presumably, they shouldn't... but here is the rub. There are only a finite number of people willing to trade 1 tag Say I need 3 tags.. Exactly 3 tags.. No less will suffice What happens if "Owner A" trades me 1 tag, "Owner B" trades me another, but I cannot find an "Owner C" to get the 3rd? Now I'm stuck. Instead, maybe I'm willing to pay the premium to know that I can keep my guy, who presumably is worth more than the pick I'm trading Further, if all the people who otherwise looked for 3 tags, now looked for numerous 1 tags, then the demand for 1 tag increases significantly and the price for them goes up. In which case, people start to think "maybe it would be cheaper to buy all 3 at once" And then prices revert back to what they are The point is, we've developed a market here, and it works like all markets do. Some people will do well because they are buying or selling at fortuitous times. Some will do worse. Some will make deals that are not in their best interest. Some will take advantage of that. And if the prices are incorrect, supply and demand will fix it over time And if you feel like arbitrage exists.. then you take advantage of it This is all economics 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucsfan333 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 Not to mention that trading an eighth for your first tag, a seventh for your second tag, and a sixth for your third tag is ridiculously expensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrenaline_Flux Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, Tk3 said: Presumably, they shouldn't... but here is the rub. There are only a finite number of people willing to trade 1 tag Say I need 3 tags.. Exactly 3 tags.. No less will suffice What happens if "Owner A" trades me 1 tag, "Owner B" trades me another, but I cannot find an "Owner C" to get the 3rd? Now I'm stuck. Instead, maybe I'm willing to pay the premium to know that I can keep my guy, who presumably is worth more than the pick I'm trading Further, if all the people who otherwise looked for 3 tags, now looked for numerous 1 tags, then the demand for 1 tag increases significantly and the price for them goes up. In which case, people start to think "maybe it would be cheaper to buy all 3 at once" And then prices revert back to what they are The point is, we've developed a market here, and it works like all markets do. Some people will do well because they are buying or selling at fortuitous times. Some will do worse. Some will make deals that are not in their best interest. Some will take advantage of that. And if the prices are incorrect, supply and demand will fix it over time And if you feel like arbitrage exists.. then you take advantage of it This is all economics 101. okay but what if there's a fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucsfan333 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 Just now, Adrenaline_Flux said: okay but what if there's a fire Fetal position. I think. Don't quote me on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 15 minutes ago, Tk3 said: Which is exactly why prices vary. Some years I would gladly pay a 5th for a tag if I couldn't find a better option. Some years I wouldn't even pay an 8th. This quote right here is the crux of my argument It doesn't matter what people arbitrarily claim is the price of something What matters is the price you are willing to pay, and if that matches up with the price at which someone else is willing to sell Essentially, I give zero effs if anybody in particular thinks the price of a tag is too high or too low. I'll pay what makes sense based on the player I want to keep, and if the prices don't match that, then I let him walk. Anybody doing anything different is dumb. From the selling side, I'll sell if someone is willing to offer picks that exceed the value of the player I would keep with those tags. Again, it would be dumb to do otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrenaline_Flux Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 1 minute ago, bucsfan333 said: Not to mention that trading an eighth for your first tag, a seventh for your second tag, and a sixth for your third tag is ridiculously expensive. I'd rather pay a 6th, 7th, and 8th for 3 tags than a 1st for 3 tags. The issue is finding 3 separate people willing to trade me 1 tag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucsfan333 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Adrenaline_Flux said: I'd rather pay a 6th, 7th, and 8th for 3 tags than a 1st for 3 tags. The issue is finding 3 separate people willing to trade me 1 tag. That's a big gap to be missing picks when you're still drafting starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucsfan333 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 The gap from the fifth round to the ninth round >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the gap between the first and second round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrenaline_Flux Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 Just now, bucsfan333 said: That's a big gap to be missing picks when you're still drafting starters. I also have high confidence in my ability to draft late and maneuver the draft in earlier rounds as needed and remain competitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Tk3 said: This quote right here is the crux of my argument It doesn't matter what people arbitrarily claim is the price of something What matters is the price you are willing to pay, and if that matches up with the price at which someone else is willing to sell Here’s the thing though. Apple doesn’t lower their price just because you decided you want to spend $300 less on their phone. If you don’t want to pay it, you don’t get it. That doesn’t make the price less, it makes you a non-buyer. A good is worth what a good is worth. An individual consumer can decide if they want to pay that price, but that consumer doesn’t set the market. If you don’t want to pay what something costs, that’s great. But that doesn’t mean that the price should be deflated. 9 minutes ago, Tk3 said: This is all economics 101. Yeah, and anyone who has taken any Econ class above 101 knows that markets don’t actually work the simplistic way Econ 101 paints then. But thanks for the tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrenaline_Flux Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 1 minute ago, bucsfan333 said: The gap from the fifth round to the ninth round >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the gap between the first and second round. Depends on who is available in the first and top of the second, but in a vacuum I'd rather have a first round pick. My main issue waiting from the fifth to the ninth is patience more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, bucsfan333 said: That's a big gap to be missing picks when you're still drafting starters. Who cares? Trade the first for a third, fourth and sixth. You’re still coming out way ahead. Hell, trade the first for peanuts and get a fifth, sixth and seventh. You’re still coming out way ahead, and that’s if you get trash value on the first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, Adrenaline_Flux said: I'd rather pay a 6th, 7th, and 8th for 3 tags than a 1st for 3 tags. The issue is finding 3 separate people willing to trade me 1 tag. Everything you said is correct If this was a stock exchange where there was a (for all intents and purposes) a limitless supply of the resource (tags), then you can do this. But nobody is going to sell 3 tags individually. Many teams hit their tag usage exactly. Someone can go back and fact check how many single tags are usually traded on a season by season basis, but I would guess that any given season there are maybe 5 single tags floating out there To think you can get 3 of them is a big risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrenaline_Flux Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 @bucsfan333 although I just realized that in 4 seasons in NSFL, I've made one 1st round selection (S16) and that was 1.20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, pwny said: Here’s the thing though. Apple doesn’t lower their price just because you decided you want to spend $300 less on their phone. If you don’t want to pay it, you don’t get it. That doesn’t make the price less, it makes you a non-buyer. A good is worth what a good is worth. An individual consumer can decide if they want to pay that price, but that consumer doesn’t set the market. If you don’t want to pay what something costs, that’s great. But that doesn’t mean that the price should be deflated. first and foremost, tags are not the same as iphones secondly, this is a barter market - if you think tags are worth what tags are worth, then I can't help you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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