Adrenaline_Flux Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Tk3 said: first and foremost, tags are not the same as iphones cite your sources Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMossIsBoss Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 @pwny Have you charted that luck rating for all seasons (besides first few)? I'd like to see the unluckiest teams of all time, and their coaches. See if there is any correlation there (since "bad luck" in this context can mostly be attributed to losing a lot more close games than you are winning such games, I'd imagine). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said: @pwny Have you charted that luck rating for all seasons (besides first few)? I'd like to see the unluckiest teams of all time, and their coaches. See if there is any correlation there (since "bad luck" in this context can mostly be attributed to losing a lot more close games than you are winning such games, I'd imagine). Every season, dating back to Season 0. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T0vzPOVjko48-Msn5M81dEOW1Gq2U4Qqttx1Srpx-lY/edit?usp=sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMossIsBoss Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 16 minutes ago, pwny said: Every season, dating back to Season 0. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T0vzPOVjko48-Msn5M81dEOW1Gq2U4Qqttx1Srpx-lY/edit?usp=sharing Well that theory was squashed pretty quickly, Andy Reid coached the unluckiest team and Bill Belichick the 4th unluckiest... one day I will figure out what exactly HCs do in this sim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 24 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said: since "bad luck" in this context can mostly be attributed to losing a lot more close games than you are winning such games, I'd imagine You’re pretty much right on this. There might be some correlation with coaching, but the problem is figuring out where it applies for each team. From my understanding, the role coaches play is to simply increase the attributes of players and some other minor things. The sim is based on dice roles. So I think the largest factor is always just going to be the random number generation engine. Sometimes you need a 20 and roll a 19, sometimes you roll a 21. And sometimes you roll over a 20 several times in a row and sometimes you roll under several times. It’s also entirely possible that a team labeled unlucky is actually much worse than their record and actually got lucky on way more rolls than they have any reasonable right to. That does seem far less likely than just getting bad rolls on some crucial rolls that influence the direction of the game. The only thing you can do is have a team good enough that you don’t have to meet thresholds as high as other teams do. But sometimes your opponent just keeps landing 20s when you can’t land a 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said: one day I will figure out what exactly HCs do in this sim. I believe Nacho has explained before. But each coach has certain positions they influence each game to different extents. Each game it’s rolled and then the players’ attributes are adjusted. There’s a range though, so it’s possible that one game McVay adds +5 to your QB, and a different game he makes a -1 difference if you roll poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucsfan333 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 31 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said: one day I will figure out what exactly HCs do in this sim. Pro tip: it's nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glen Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 15 hours ago, EaglesPeteC said: Trade! Direwolves get DE Mario Addison T Terron Armstead Trash Pandas get S19 5th OT Braden Smith @Tk3 @TheKillerNacho TFW you were gonna offer two 2nds for Armstead and Johnson... But end of the weekend doesn't mean end of the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 22 minutes ago, Glen said: TFW you were gonna offer two 2nds for Armstead and Johnson... But end of the weekend doesn't mean end of the weekend I beleive 0% of anything you type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glen Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, EaglesPeteC said: I beleive 0% of anything you type I mean thats fair. But I was going to offer high picks for both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, Glen said: I mean thats fair. But I was going to offer high picks for both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted March 31, 2019 Author Share Posted March 31, 2019 6 hours ago, pwny said: You’re pretty much right on this. There might be some correlation with coaching, but the problem is figuring out where it applies for each team. From my understanding, the role coaches play is to simply increase the attributes of players and some other minor things. The sim is based on dice roles. So I think the largest factor is always just going to be the random number generation engine. Sometimes you need a 20 and roll a 19, sometimes you roll a 21. And sometimes you roll over a 20 several times in a row and sometimes you roll under several times. It’s also entirely possible that a team labeled unlucky is actually much worse than their record and actually got lucky on way more rolls than they have any reasonable right to. That does seem far less likely than just getting bad rolls on some crucial rolls that influence the direction of the game. The only thing you can do is have a team good enough that you don’t have to meet thresholds as high as other teams do. But sometimes your opponent just keeps landing 20s when you can’t land a 10. The other thing your luck stat doesn't seem to take into consideration is schedule. Schedules int his league vary heavily based on what division you're in. A really good team that plays a really hard schedule but puts together a lot of close wins would be considered "lucky", while an equally good team in a bad division that executed a few blow outs against bottom dwellers would not be. That would be especially true this season where it looks like the conferences are more imbalanced than I've previously recalled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whicker Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 I am offering a 10th round pick to anyone outside my division to trade divisions with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, Whicker said: I am offering a 10th round pick to anyone outside my division to trade divisions with me accepted @TheKillerNacho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 1 hour ago, TheKillerNacho said: The other thing your luck stat doesn't seem to take into consideration is schedule. Schedules int his league vary heavily based on what division you're in. A really good team that plays a really hard schedule but puts together a lot of close wins would be considered "lucky", while an equally good team in a bad division that executed a few blow outs against bottom dwellers would not be. That would be especially true this season where it looks like the conferences are more imbalanced than I've previously recalled. Yup. I’m slowly adding Strength of Schedule to seasons to help give more context for it. And when I get that done, I may work out another formula that weighs schedules into the total. But that’s going to be an undertaking because I have to manually map every team’s schedule game by game. And for this one, I think i’m going to need every team’s data, not just the top 10 and bottom 10 like I was able to use to create the PWN. Also if you were to sim a game 100 times and one team wins 75% of the time, and 60 times they win by 10+, a team would be obviously better than the other. But it’s also possible that when you sim only once, that the better team only wins by 2. The better team appears somewhat lucky to squeak out a close win, when in reality they were unlucky to even be in that situation. Definitely imperfect, but I think it helps give context, at least in how teams do against their schedules. Hopefully over time, I’ll maybe get something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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