Evaluating Gutenkunst's first year

[AlexGreen#20]

12 minutes ago, Pugger said:

He is probably book smart but perhaps not football smart?

As evidenced by the fact that he was assignment sure at RB, WR, and until one bad play, 3 ST units?

[Isherwood]

I was as big a fan of the hire of Gutekunst as anyone, but I see his first year as a bit of an intentional clean out of the team and therefore would be tough to grade. Roster as it was before the season started, I thought we could stretch to 10-6 at best. I also thought that McCarthy would be fired short of another NFCCG appearance. With Ted Thompson being relieved of his GM duties, I just felt that Mike was next short of another very strong season. A one and done wouldn’t have cut it, and I truly believe Gute and Co planned on this being a multi-year rebuild of sorts from the beginning. It’s the only way to explain the selling of Ha Ha, Montgomery, and Randall. And I think those were the right moves for the long run, even if they weakened the team. 

So as for building a team that could compete this year, honestly I’d have to give a C. I think if the HC didn’t lose the QB, Gute’s job would have looked better too. Tough to blame him for that, but now that MM is done, Gute’s on the hook. The true eval of what this team is going to be begins now. 

P.S. I’m Isherwood - nice to meet all of you

[OneTwoSixFive]

4 hours ago, Isherwood said:

P.S. I’m Isherwood - nice to meet all of you

Hi there. I agree with what you alluded to, ie being cautious about judging Gute after a year.  We will have a better idea through this year, as the clearing out of coaches has been completed and unwanted players have been moved on. I do hope (like everyone) that this can be the start of building a Great Lakes powerhouse.

It is just too early to judge Gute's first draft, heck I can't even tell you yet if M.Adams and J.Jones are busts and they were 2017 picks, and it was only this year I finally decided Spriggs WAS a bust (he was a 2016 pick), so judging J.Jackson, J.Moore and O.Burks is premature.

[Leader]

16 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Damarious Randall screams of a guy who's going to mail it in after getting paid, glad it's not us giving him the money. He's also soft as can be and wasn't close to many in that locker room. Can argue the compensation but he flat out sucked in year 2, and was on and off in year 3. Played his best football out of the gates as a rookie. I don't think he was worth a ton, we'll see what Kizer becomes with an actual functional coaching staff, what he had last year was an embarrassment. 

Gute showed me he's aggressive enough to make this thing happen, that's all I needed to see. The FA signings were more miss than hit but I completely trust his player evaluation skills.

Overall I would give him a B/B- year 1. His in season moves were brilliant compared to Ted, got guys like Tony Brown, Bashaud Breeland and raided practice squads for promising players at years end. Hard to grade him accurately with a coaching staff that had lost the locker room.

Good read.
I'd give it annnnn A-
(always gotta leave room for improvement)

[coachbuns]

14 hours ago, pgwingman said:

I have a hard time giving him anything other than a C.

The Graham move was the height of folly. They cut someone (Jordy) who was old, slowing, expensive, and had a serious knee injury history. They replaced him with someone who is older, slower, more expensive, and had a more serious injury history. Fans loved the deal though, and it looks like they lined up the really get their first dose of how much of a con the free agency market can be.

The Rodgers deal still doesn't make much sense to me. It doesn't really look like we got a discount for doing it early. However, it basically had to be done. If you have to shell out dollars, there are worse ways to spend them.

Getting Breeland was a plus move.

 

The first round trade was an obvious good move.

Josh Jackson was never a great man coverage corner in college, but he was a value in the 2nd round. 

The 3 receivers are about what I thought they'd be.

The Cole Madison thing worries me. Is he coming back? Did the staff not know how this guy felt about football? Was it a mistake to draft him, or did Madison have a change of heart between the draft and training camp? This story is still unfolding.

When you put all that together, it looks like an average season to me.

 

Do you know more about the Cole Madison situation?  What he purportedly went through was really bad.  Had nothing to do about how he felt about football or change of heart.  

[rcon14]

2 hours ago, coachbuns said:

Do you know more about the Cole Madison situation?  What he purportedly went through was really bad.  Had nothing to do about how he felt about football or change of heart.  

Here's a timeline of everything that could impact the situation imo, you all can draw your own conclusions

Dec. 28, 2017: Season finale for Washington State.
Jan. 16, 2018: Tyler Hilinski takes his own life.
Jan. 24: Authorities reveal the rifle used was stolen from a former teammate on or before Jan. 12.
March 2: Madison participates at the NFL Scouting Combine
April 28: Madison is drafted by the Packers.
May 4-7: Madison participates in rookie camp.
May 31: Video on Packers.com has him saying he's excited to get back to football after the 'show off' stuff of combine training, etc.
May-June: Participated in team workouts.
June 26: SI.com reports that Hilinski suffered from CTE (I note this because it was the only "new" news of his death that had come out since late January).
July 26: Madison did not report for the start of training camp for personal reasons.

Aug. 13: Madison's agent says the plan is he'll play again at some point.

[pgwingman]

1 hour ago, rcon14 said:

Here's a timeline of everything that could impact the situation imo, you all can draw your own conclusions

Dec. 28, 2017: Season finale for Washington State.
Jan. 16, 2018: Tyler Hilinski takes his own life.
Jan. 24: Authorities reveal the rifle used was stolen from a former teammate on or before Jan. 12.
March 2: Madison participates at the NFL Scouting Combine
April 28: Madison is drafted by the Packers.
May 4-7: Madison participates in rookie camp.
May 31: Video on Packers.com has him saying he's excited to get back to football after the 'show off' stuff of combine training, etc.
May-June: Participated in team workouts.
June 26: SI.com reports that Hilinski suffered from CTE (I note this because it was the only "new" news of his death that had come out since late January).
July 26: Madison did not report for the start of training camp for personal reasons.

Aug. 13: Madison's agent says the plan is he'll play again at some point.

Thanks for posting, I had never seen a timeline of the facts, only the facts. I certainly understand Madison's position, and I hope he finds peace in his life, regardless of his career. Sounds like it was just bad timing on the packers end.

[mikemike778]

On ‎21‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 4:44 AM, CWood21 said:

You can't fix a roster overnight.  Hell, it takes 2-3 offseasons before you can restock the cupboard.  The Saints '15-'17 draft is what revamped the Saints.  The '10-'12 class is what put the Seahawks on the map.  If you're expecting any GM to fix a roster in a single offseason, you're not looking at this realistically.

That was exactly my point.

I said its impossible to grade a GM in the first year because most of his moves are for a few years down the line. If you absolutely have to put a grade out then the only tangible evidence to what he has done is the 2018 team. Which was bad. So if you have to grade him then he has been poor.

That would be incredibly harsh but nobody can justify saying he has done a good job until he puts together a roster that makes the playoffs. 

 

[mikemike778]

On ‎20‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 5:56 PM, TheGreatZepp said:

... so basically you disagree with just about every team’s philosophy of drafting and developing what you can and filling in the gaps with free agents... gotcha.

No.

You should draft the best players and fill the gaps with free agents.

However when you insist on using every single decent draft pick on defence then what you are left with isn't gaps its a chasm. When you completely and utterly ignore a position then you are pretty much forced into bad contracts like Graham. We haven't bothered with Tight End (because its not defence) so there is zero depth, sack all in the way of youth (unless you are banking on Tonyan) so pretty much the only thing left open to you is put up with the bad contracts. 

Lets be clear. The strategy in recent years hasn't been to draft the best player, its been to draft the best defensive player and arrogantly assume that because you have Aaron the offense will be lights out.

[TheGreatZepp]

5 hours ago, mikemike778 said:

No.

You should draft the best players and fill the gaps with free agents.

However when you insist on using every single decent draft pick on defence then what you are left with isn't gaps its a chasm. When you completely and utterly ignore a position then you are pretty much forced into bad contracts like Graham. We haven't bothered with Tight End (because its not defence) so there is zero depth, sack all in the way of youth (unless you are banking on Tonyan) so pretty much the only thing left open to you is put up with the bad contracts. 

Lets be clear. The strategy in recent years hasn't been to draft the best player, its been to draft the best defensive player and arrogantly assume that because you have Aaron the offense will be lights out.

Alright so let’s see all those top 100 pick TE’s you would of drafted since JerMichael’s injury in 2013. So 2014 draft and on, ready go! I am assuming that since the Packers “completely and utterly ignore” the tight end position that you will have no problem compiling a nice deep, healthy list of TE’s....

[AlexGreen#20]

11 minutes ago, TheGreatZepp said:

Alright so let’s see all those top 100 pick TE’s you would of drafted since JerMichael’s injury in 2013. So 2014 draft and on, ready go! I am assuming that since the Packers “completely and utterly ignore” the tight end position that you will have no problem compiling a nice deep, healthy list of TE’s....

Haven't bothered to look, but this seems like an interesting exercise.

[SSG]

37 minutes ago, TheGreatZepp said:

Alright so let’s see all those top 100 pick TE’s you would of drafted since JerMichael’s injury in 2013. So 2014 draft and on, ready go! I am assuming that since the Packers “completely and utterly ignore” the tight end position that you will have no problem compiling a nice deep, healthy list of TE’s....

I  wasn't a big JMike fan.  Thought he was kind of a self centered ****** bag who's production wasn't worth the locker room headache.  Was ready to move on from him prior to his injury.  I  really, really wanted to draft Zack Ertz back in 2013.  I  wanted us to take a late round flyer on Cameron Brate in 2014 (liked him a lot more than Justin Perillo who we signed as undrafted).  I liked Jesse Jame a lot in 2015 (actually thought he'd go a lot earlier).  I also had a huge football crush on Hunter Henry in 2016. I    understand where you are going with this though as the tight end draft classes were really weak from 2014 through 2016.  They've been a lot stronger since though.  2017 was a really good class, last year's was pretty good and this year's looks to be one of the best ever.  

 

[AlexGreen#20]

Just now, SSG said:

I  wasn't a big JMike fan.  Thought he was kind of a self centered ****** bag who's production wasn't worth the locker room headache.  Was ready to move on from him prior to his injury.  I  really, really wanted to draft Zack Ertz back in 2013.  I  wanted us to take a late round flyer on Cameron Brate in 2014 (liked him a lot more than Justin Perillo who we signed as undrafted).  I liked Jesse Jame a lot in 2015 (actually thought he'd go a lot earlier).  I also had a huge football crush on Hunter Henry in 2016. I    understand where you are going with this though as the tight end draft classes were really weak from 2014 through 2016.  They've been a lot stronger since though.  2017 was a really good class, last year's was pretty good and this year's looks to be one of the best ever.  

 

2013:

Tyler Eifert 21 (Taken before our 1st rounder)

Zach Ertz 35 (Datone Jones)

Gavin Escobar 47 (Datone Jones)

Vance McDonald 55 (Datone Jones)

Travis Kelce 63 (Eddie Lacy)

Jordan Reed 85 (Eddie Lacy)

2014:

Eric Ebron 10 (Taken before our 1st rounder)

Austin Seferian Jenkins 45 (HHCD)

Jace Amaro 49 (HHCD)

Troy Niklas 52 (HHCD)

CJ Fiedorowicz 65 (Davante Adams)

Richard Rodgers 98

Crockett Gilmore (Richard Rodgers)

2015:

Maxx Williams 55 (Damarious Randall)

Clive Walford 68 (Quinten Rollins)

Tyler Croft 85 (Quinten Rollins)

Jeff Heurman 91 (Quinten Rollins)

2016:

Hunter Henry 35 (Kenny Clark)

Austin Hooper 81 (Jason Spriggs)

Nick Vannett 94 (Kyler Fackrell)

2017:

OJ Howard 19 (Before our 1st round pick)

Evan Engram 23 (Before our 1st round pick)

David Njouku 29 (Kevin King)

Gerald Everett 44 (Kevin King)

Adam Shaheen 45 (Kevin King)

Jonnu Smith 100 (Montravious Adams)

2018:

Hayden Hurst 25 (Jaire Alexander)

Mike Gesicki 42 (Jaire Alexander)

Dallas Goedert 49 (Josh Jackson)

Mark Andrews 86 (Josh Jackson)

Jordin Akins 98 (Oren Burks)

 

Red are the no-brainer ones you prefer over what we picked, and I'm conflicted on Mark Andrews over Josh Jackson. 

[TheGreatZepp]

Yea, TE’s were just really slim for those couple years, and the ones that were coming out weren’t physically gifted anomalies. Yes, many of Green Bay’s picks haven’t turned out but neither did the majority of the TE’s that were drafted.

[SSG]

6 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

2013:

Tyler Eifert 21 (Taken before our 1st rounder)

Zach Ertz 35 (Datone Jones)

Gavin Escobar 47 (Datone Jones)

Vance McDonald 55 (Datone Jones)

Travis Kelce 63 (Eddie Lacy)

Jordan Reed 85 (Eddie Lacy)

2014:

Eric Ebron 10 (Taken before our 1st rounder)

Austin Seferian Jenkins 45 (HHCD)

Jace Amaro 49 (HHCD)

Troy Niklas 52 (HHCD)

CJ Fiedorowicz 65 (Davante Adams)

Richard Rodgers 98

Crockett Gilmore (Richard Rodgers)

2015:

Maxx Williams 55 (Damarious Randall)

Clive Walford 68 (Quinten Rollins)

Tyler Croft 85 (Quinten Rollins)

Jeff Heurman 91 (Quinten Rollins)

2016:

Hunter Henry 35 (Kenny Clark)

Austin Hooper 81 (Jason Spriggs)

Nick Vannett 94 (Kyler Fackrell)

2017:

OJ Howard 19 (Before our 1st round pick)

Evan Engram 23 (Before our 1st round pick)

David Njouku 29 (Kevin King)

Gerald Everett 44 (Kevin King)

Adam Shaheen 45 (Kevin King)

Jonnu Smith 100 (Montravious Adams)

2018:

Hayden Hurst 25 (Jaire Alexander)

Mike Gesicki 42 (Jaire Alexander)

c49 (Josh Jackson)

Mark Andrews 86 (Josh Jackson)

Jordin Akins 98 (Oren Burks)

 

Red are the no-brainer ones you prefer over what we picked, and I'm conflicted on Mark Andrews over Josh Jackson. 

Good post.  Like I said in the quoted, the TE drafts in 14, 15 and 16 were pretty rough.  I'd probably change a couple (I liked Njouku more than King and would have preferred Goedert over Jackson though I didn't mind his value at the time) but I agree with most of it.  I also think at the time of the draft there wasn't a gap between Clark and Henry.  I wanted Henry because I thought he was a better player at the time and the TE class wasn't nearly as deep as the DT class.