Second Round WR - It’s Time

[CWood21]

20 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

What about our 2017-2019 drafts if we nail this one? 

2017 looks shady because King can't stay healthy, Josh Jones is struggling, Montravius hasn't made that step. If two of those guys end up being + starters, add in Jamaal and Aaron Jones and that's a solid draft.

2018 looks like we got a potentially all-pro corner, Josh Jackson who was raw and has hope (I still don't like him), and potentially two starting WRs, and Lancaster as an UDFA

If 2019 is a great draft, doesn't have to be as good as the Saints or Cowboys mega drafts this decade, how is that @CWood21 ?

If Kevin King could stay healthy, I think we'd be looking at the 2017 draft in a totally different light.  Josh Jones is what he is, a low IQ, big time athlete whose fit is questionable.  I wouldn't really argue that Adams really has had the opportunity to show what he can do, mainly because of the guys in front of him.  If Adams turns into a quality big and King stays healthy, that draft looks a LOT better than it currently does.  You could make the same argument about the '18 draft.  People have soured on it because Josh Jackson hasn't been a stud.  If the Packers figure out where he plays well at, that draft looks really, really good especially when you've snagged MVS and ESB in the later rounds.  They need a home run in this year's draft if they want to push that envelope.

[JBURGE]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

If Kevin King could stay healthy, I think we'd be looking at the 2017 draft in a totally different light.  Josh Jones is what he is, a low IQ, big time athlete whose fit is questionable.  I wouldn't really argue that Adams really has had the opportunity to show what he can do, mainly because of the guys in front of him.  If Adams turns into a quality big and King stays healthy, that draft looks a LOT better than it currently does.  You could make the same argument about the '18 draft.  People have soured on it because Josh Jackson hasn't been a stud.  If the Packers figure out where he plays well at, that draft looks really, really good especially when you've snagged MVS and ESB in the later rounds.  They need a home run in this year's draft if they want to push that envelope.

That's all I'm saying. The 2017 and 18 drafts can be good enough if they can nail this one. 

[CWood21]

6 minutes ago, SSG said:

We've wasted multiple top 64 picks on DBs in 3 of the last 4 years (6 of the 8 picks) with nothing to show for it.  It's time that we stop blowing premiere draft picks on the position and start addressing them in Free Agency.  Continuing to ignore other positions with our premier picks in favor of DBs and only DBs is a large reason this team is as awful as it is.  The amount of premier draft assets we've tossed at DBs over the last 4 years is ridiculous.

So the solution is to leave an awful position awful?  That sounds like something the Browns would do.  Look at our 2013-15 drafts, and how many of those were missed based on the ability to evaluate talent or the coaching staff's inability to make things work.  Datone Jones was always an optimistic pick, mainly because he was a positional tweener who wasn't stout enough to play on the line and not athletic enough to play on the EDGE.  Eddie Lacy was a stud until he ate himself out of the league.  HHCD simply wants to get paid and then cash out.  Davante Adams is a stud.  They took a gamble on Khryi Thornton, and it didn't turn out.  They took a guy with movement skills who lacked production, and hoped they could develop him. That's not a bad gamble.  The Randall situation clearly falls on the coaching staff for not realizing that he was a natural safety.  Rollins was a basketball player turned football player, I'd pin that one on the FO.  And Ty Montgomery is the exact type of player people are clamoring for in here when they want a gadet player.

If you're wanting to pay premium for positions that don't age well (i.e. CB), don't be surprised when you want them released in a year or two.

[JBURGE]

11 minutes ago, Beast said:

I was thinking it might be a highly drafted TE instead of WR... as we hope last year WR rookies develop into something this year.... and maybe grab a WR from else where, say Cole Beasley, who does a great job getting open and the Cowboys don't use him that much... and Rodgers likes it when his receivers can lose the defender and that's what Beasley does.

I really like Hockenson, but his value is all over the place, but looks to be in the 1st. Little high. 

Am not opposed to drafting a tight end in the first few rounds and adding some like, maybe, Sefarian-Jenkins who looks to be on his way out of Jax? Cheap veteran

[CWood21]

4 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Correct, so if the best player by value and grading tiers is a WR at pick #44, why do you not go that route?

I'm not saying the Packers shouldn't.  I'm just saying with all things being equal, there's a half a dozen other positions I'm more concerned about than WR.  We can get by with MVS and ESB as "starting" WRs.  I don't think we can get by with Reggie Gilbert and Kendall Donnerson as our starting EDGE.  Nor am I convinced we can get by with Tony Brown or Josh Jackson as our starting corners.

[Cheech]

21 minutes ago, SSG said:

Probably.  It's hard for me to ignore how useless MVS was to the offense from week 11 to week 15.  He was absolutely horrid.  

I  don't understand the hype surrounding EQ.  I seen nothing last year that would suggest that he's going to develop into a starting caliber WR next year.  Kupp was a substantially more talented and more polished WR coming out of college.  

MVS has a long, long, long way to go as a route runner before we can start using him in the same manner the LAR uses Cooks.  He can run straight fast and not much more.  

See, this is where I saw more last year out of both of those guys.  MVS ran some really nice routes last year that were surprising to me.  I think he has way more polish and potential than a stiff like Janis.  He's not going to offer the same short area burst as Cooks does, but his long speed and stuff over the middle  - a simple drag rout could be utilized in some exciting ways.  

 I thought EQ showed some really nice stuff toward the end of the season when he took some snaps from MVS.  

Where both of those guys struggled, along with Graham, was when plays broke down.  Hopefully we don't have to see the same old playground crap from 12.  And, yes, the receivers shoulder some of the blame, but 12 made some absolutely trash decisions and throws last year that had nothing to do with the young guys running the routes.  

 

[Beast]

28 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

I really like Hockenson, but his value is all over the place, but looks to be in the 1st. Little high. 

Am not opposed to drafting a tight end in the first few rounds and adding some like, maybe, Sefarian-Jenkins who looks to be on his way out of Jax? Cheap veteran

For veterans, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if they brought back Kendricks and/or Lewis on a cheap deal. Lewis has actually said he wants to be back in Green Bay and that was before they hired the new coaches including his former Jacksonville OC.

[squire12]

37 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'm not saying the Packers shouldn't.  I'm just saying with all things being equal, there's a half a dozen other positions I'm more concerned about than WR.  We can get by with MVS and ESB as "starting" WRs.  I don't think we can get by with Reggie Gilbert and Kendall Donnerson as our starting EDGE.

What happened to Perry and Fackrell?

37 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

 

 Nor am I convinced we can get by with Tony Brown or Josh Jackson as our starting corners.

What happened to Alexander and King?

 

Did these players get cut, suspended?

[SSG]

33 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

It literally isn't a myth.  Find me the last time a rookie WR was top 2 in targets for the Packers with Rodgers as the starting QB.  I'll do it for you, there was none.  The last time the Packers had a rookie WR receive the 2nd most targets was back in 2006 when Greg Jennings caught 69 less balls than Donald Driver with Brett Favre throwing to him.  In Davante Adams' rookie year, he finished 3rd in targets behind Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb at 66 targets.  Ty Montgomery in his rookie year had 19 targets, which was 4th among WRs behind Davante Adams, James Jones, and Randall Cobb.  MVS just finished the year with 73 targets, which was god for 3rd on the team.  It's not a myth.  It's a long standing thing that's been discussed ad nauseam.  I'm not blaming solely Rodgers, because the truth is probably closer to somewhere in the middle.  Rookie WRs are going to make mistakes in their route running.  That's just a fact.  And Rodgers is the anti-Favre in that he won't give his WRs the opportunity to make a play.  Rookie WRs aren't going to step in and be a clear #2 WR.

Go watch all the GIFs by Ben Fennell from early in the year.  We saw MVS get wide open, and Rodgers refused to throw him the ball.  When the Packers get in the RZ, Rodgers locks onto Davante Adams.  I'm hopeful LaFleur can change that, but based on what we saw this year I'm not expecting it.

Like I  said, we haven't needed rookie WRs to contribute.  In what season did we have a a rookie WR that was held back by Rodgers and should have been #2 on the team in targets?  

 

In 2008 (rookie: Jordy Nelson) we had multiple pro bowl caliber WRs in Jennings and Driver.  Also on that roster was a great #3 in James Jones.  

In 2011 (rookie: Randall Cobb) we had multiple pro bowl caliber WRs in Nelson and Jennings.  Also on that roster was James Jones, Donald Driver and Jermichael Finley.  

In 2013 (rookies: Kevin Dorsey and Charles Johnson) we had Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, James Jones and Jarrett Boykin.

In 2014 (rookies: Davante Adams, Abbrederis, Janis) we had multiple pro bowl WRs in Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.

In 2015 (Rookie: Ty Montgomery) we had Randall Cobb, James Jones and Davante Adams.  Jordy got injured.

In 2016 (Rookies: Trevor Davis) we had Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and Jared Cook.  

In 2017 (Rookies: DeAngelo Yancey, Malachi Dupre, Geronimo Allison) we had Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and Marty Bennett

In 2018 (Rookies:Moore, MVS, EQSB) we had Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and Jimmy Graham.  

 

I'm failing to see one single season where Aaron Rodgers kept a rookie WR from high end contributing (or being second on the team in targets) because of his refusal to throw them the ball.  This would have maybe been the only year but MVS played like garbage week 11 thru week 15 where he was a 1 or 2 catch per game WR despite seeing a starting caliper of snaps.  You want to point to them being rookies, I'd like to point to the lack of talent.  You'll notice that not one low end WR prospect has had success in Green Bay for an extended period of time.  You are wanting to blame Rodgers while failing to acknowledge the fact that it's been a long time since a prospect the caliber of MVS has had success in Green Bay.  He's a low end prospect who had little to no success in college despite being a better athlete than every player he ever lined up against.  Not often that guys who struggled in college end up developing into starters in the NFL.  

Sorry, I'm not going to go and watch GIFFs and act like there are no such things as progressions for a QB.  It's funny that people actually believe that 100% of the players they view as open in GIFFs are misses or refusals to throw the ball by the QB.  If MVS is open after he runs the wrong route or blows a route, it doesn't automatically mean Rodgers "refused" to throw him the ball.  

[SSG]

42 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

So the solution is to leave an awful position awful?  That sounds like something the Browns would do.  Look at our 2013-15 drafts, and how many of those were missed based on the ability to evaluate talent or the coaching staff's inability to make things work.  Datone Jones was always an optimistic pick, mainly because he was a positional tweener who wasn't stout enough to play on the line and not athletic enough to play on the EDGE.  Eddie Lacy was a stud until he ate himself out of the league.  HHCD simply wants to get paid and then cash out.  Davante Adams is a stud.  They took a gamble on Khryi Thornton, and it didn't turn out.  They took a guy with movement skills who lacked production, and hoped they could develop him. That's not a bad gamble.  The Randall situation clearly falls on the coaching staff for not realizing that he was a natural safety.  Rollins was a basketball player turned football player, I'd pin that one on the FO.  And Ty Montgomery is the exact type of player people are clamoring for in here when they want a gadet player.

If you're wanting to pay premium for positions that don't age well (i.e. CB), don't be surprised when you want them released in a year or two.

Actually it's not.  Look at the way the Browns attacked the QB position over the last 5 years.  It is EXACTLY the way you want us to attack our DB issue.  Your first and second round pick don't work out immediately?  That's ok, wait a year and use that same first and second round.  And just to be safe, we'll use those same picks on the position group again for the next season.  Maybe the 3rd year in a row and 4th out of the last 5 drafts is the answer.

[CWood21]

14 minutes ago, squire12 said:

What happened to Perry and Fackrell?

You essentially have 3 "starting" EDGE in today's NFL.  You're not putting your top 2 pass rushers out there for 80% of the defensive snaps.  That's a GREAT way to wear down your pass rushers.  Ideally, you're top 2 pass rushers are getting something around 60% of the snaps, your #3 is getting 45% of the snaps which still leaves 35% snaps unaccounted for assuming you stick with 2 EDGE guys at all time.  Fackrell is one of those guys, but I'm currently operating under the assumption we'll move on from Nick Perry.

16 minutes ago, squire12 said:

What happened to Alexander and King?

Much like EDGE, you essentially need 3 "starting" caliber corners.  Jaire is one.  King isn't dependable to stay healthy, but if he was this would make CB position less of a need.

[Lodestar]

EQ simply passes the eye test for me. He was intriguing coming out of Notre Dame, but I've been most impressed with how big and fluid he looks as a Packer.

MVS is tantalizing and seems like a guy who will put in work this offseason, but he actually strikes me as a bigger question mark, albeit one with a very high ceiling.

At the end of the day, I have no idea how good either of these guys are and it wouldn't bother me if Gute still considers WR a high priority.

[CWood21]

17 minutes ago, SSG said:

Like I  said, we haven't needed rookie WRs to contribute.  In what season did we have a a rookie WR that was held back by Rodgers and should have been #2 on the team in targets?  

 

In 2008 (rookie: Jordy Nelson) we had multiple pro bowl caliber WRs in Jennings and Driver.  Also on that roster was a great #3 in James Jones.  

In 2011 (rookie: Randall Cobb) we had multiple pro bowl caliber WRs in Nelson and Jennings.  Also on that roster was James Jones, Donald Driver and Jermichael Finley.  

In 2013 (rookies: Kevin Dorsey and Charles Johnson) we had Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, James Jones and Jarrett Boykin.

In 2014 (rookies: Davante Adams, Abbrederis, Janis) we had multiple pro bowl WRs in Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.

In 2015 (Rookie: Ty Montgomery) we had Randall Cobb, James Jones and Davante Adams.  Jordy got injured.

In 2016 (Rookies: Trevor Davis) we had Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and Jared Cook.  

In 2017 (Rookies: DeAngelo Yancey, Malachi Dupre, Geronimo Allison) we had Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and Marty Bennett

In 2018 (Rookies:Moore, MVS, EQSB) we had Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and Jimmy Graham.  

 

I'm failing to see one single season where Aaron Rodgers kept a rookie WR from high end contributing (or being second on the team in targets) because of his refusal to throw them the ball.  This would have maybe been the only year but MVS played like garbage week 11 thru week 15 where he was a 1 or 2 catch per game WR despite seeing a starting caliper of snaps.  You want to point to them being rookies, I'd like to point to the lack of talent.  You'll notice that not one low end WR prospect has had success in Green Bay for an extended period of time.  You are wanting to blame Rodgers while failing to acknowledge the fact that it's been a long time since a prospect the caliber of MVS has had success in Green Bay.  He's a low end prospect who had little to no success in college despite being a better athlete than every player he ever lined up against.  Not often that guys who struggled in college end up developing into starters in the NFL.  

Sorry, I'm not going to go and watch GIFFs and act like there are no such things as progressions for a QB.  It's funny that people actually believe that 100% of the players they view as open in GIFFs are misses or refusals to throw the ball by the QB.  If MVS is open after he runs the wrong route or blows a route, it doesn't automatically mean Rodgers "refused" to throw him the ball.  

We needed a #2 WR this year, and MVS still ended up only 3rd in large part because Randall Cobb wasn't healthy and Rodgers inexplicably stopped throwing to Jimmy Graham.  Need more proof?  Look at the number of snaps per target for our WRs.

Adams: 5.6 targets per snap
MVS: 9.6 targets per snap
ESB: 9.9 targets per snap
Cobb: 7.6 targets per snap
Allison: 8.0 targets per snap

That's not a coincidence that Cobb got more targets when he was on the field.  And I'm not sure anyone thinks Randall Cobb is better than MVS or ESB.  I want to put another number out there.  76.  That's the number of targets that Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams had combined.  Our two RBs had more targets in the passing game combined than MVS had this year.  And that's coming from a guy who doesn't like throwing to his backs.

[JBURGE]

23 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Quote

 

 Nor am I convinced we can get by with Tony Brown or Josh Jackson as our starting corners.

What happened to Alexander and King?

I am actually pretty comfortable with Josh Jackson and Tony Brown as CB 3 and 4. I would prefer to retain Breeland or bring in someone to challenge those guys, but we could do worse and there are worse units out there. 

[SSG]

2 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Over the past thirty years, there have been 122 receivers drafted in the second round. 

MVS had more receptions than 86 of those second round receivers.

MVS had more receiving yards than 94 of those second round receivers. 

He had more yards per reception than 95 of those second round receivers. 

It's not time for ****.  We already got our second round receiver, except we did it in the 5th round of last year's draft, and you have to seriously stop freaking out about receiver. 

MVS did all that with the "inept offensive McCarthy" and a WR coach that Rodgers allegedly said flat out, "you don't know what you're doing." 

This receiver drama has got to stop. 

This is kind of a lazy analysis, lumping every very single second round pick together as if they are playing in exactly the same situation.  It's lumping guys like Cobb, Adams and Nelson (who each had multiple pro bowl caliber WRs in front of them on the depth chart when drafted)  into the same group as guys who had immediate paths to the field upon being drafted (ie Michael Thomas a 2nd round pick who was starting day 1).