NFC North Rivals 2019 Talk

[beardown3231]

8 hours ago, Cheesehawk said:

TJ Hockenson - 49 rec., 760 yds, 6 TDs

Noah Fant - 39 rec., 519 yds, 7 TDs

No he wasn't.

No let's do their careers at Iowa

Yes he was

[Sugashane]

11 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

Except Floyd had 17 sacks in three seasons, and Gary had 9.5. 

Didn't Gary only rotate sparingly his freshman year? I may be thinking if someone else but I didn't think he had major playing time until his sophomore year. 

 

Idc either way, I'm hoping we don't see him take off. They are drafting for potential, not just prior production, and as an EDGE Floyd has been a disappointment overall. He has been solid for numerous spurts but not worth a top 10 pick. I hope Gary isn't either after 4 years. 

[Heinz D.]

12 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Idc either way, I'm hoping we don't see him take off. They are drafting for potential, not just prior production, and as an EDGE Floyd has been a disappointment overall. He has been solid for numerous spurts but not worth a top 10 pick. I hope Gary isn't either after 4 years. 

Floyd has been sort of disappointing, true. Pagano sounds like he'll be a little more blitz-happy, so maybe that, and better health, will boost Floyd's game. (In a contract year. Yuck.)

All the Gary discussion detracts from the rest of the Pack's draft, which I thought was good. Savage should be great paired with Amos. Jenkins should be a good piece in retooling that line, and in any other draft, Sternberger would have gone much higher. Pretty solid stuff. Vikings and Lions did okay, too. Everybody added a TE the Bears will need to worry about...

[Sugashane]

44 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Floyd has been sort of disappointing, true. Pagano sounds like he'll be a little more blitz-happy, so maybe that, and better health, will boost Floyd's game. (In a contract year. Yuck.)

All the Gary discussion detracts from the rest of the Pack's draft, which I thought was good. Savage should be great paired with Amos. Jenkins should be a good piece in retooling that line, and in any other draft, Sternberger would have gone much higher. Pretty solid stuff. Vikings and Lions did okay, too. Everybody added a TE the Bears will need to worry about...

Right. Fangio even teased us with twists with Bullard and Floyd in the preseason, which looked like the timing was off but was still super effective. I thought that was going to be a dynamic duo. IDK if Bullard still has that crazy first step since adding weight and such to be more effective as a run defender though. Maybe Floyd and Nichols or RRH will be able to perform it? The idea of a 4 man front with Goldman at 3T, Hicks at RE and Mack at ROLB keeps coming to me. Hicks and Goldman drive in hard on their assigned OL, taking the LT and LG inside and Mack bursts off the edge with a full head of steam. A RB gets destroyed or Mack potentially gets another strip sack. I want to see it 1-2 times a game. Or see them drive their guys out and Mack loops up inside of them.

 

True, I was annoyed with the Savage pick especially, I liked him a lot. It is weird to see all four teams in the NFC North get better. We might have a slight step back on defense but should take a bigger step forward on offense by comparison. We should be dramatically better on special teams too.

[soulman]

4 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

17 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Idc either way, I'm hoping we don't see him take off. They are drafting for potential, not just prior production, and as an EDGE Floyd has been a disappointment overall. He has been solid for numerous spurts but not worth a top 10 pick. I hope Gary isn't either after 4 years. 

I feel the need to correct the classification of Floyd as purely an Edge Rusher.  He's not.  He's an OLB with other uses in the scheme besides pass rushing and those responsibilities can impact his sack totals and QB hits/pressures.  He also drops in coverage quite frequently and is used to "spy" more mobile QBs and hunt and chase ball carriers.

Edge Rushers are classified primarily as DEs who have no other responsibility on passing downs other than to rush the passer.  With some like Mack and Miller we see an overlap with OLBs but in reality those two are primarily Edge Rusher on passing downs.   Leonard Floyd is not.  His versatility makes him more of an OLB than an Edge Rusher.

Edited May 5, 2019 by soulman

[Sugashane]

3 hours ago, soulman said:

I feel the need to correct the classification of Floyd as purely an Edge Rusher.  He's not.  He's an OLB with other uses in the scheme besides pass rushing and those responsibilities can impact his sack totals and QB hits/pressures.  He also drops in coverage quite frequently and is used to "spy" more mobile QBs and hunt and chase ball carriers.

Edge Rushers are classified primarily as DEs who have no other responsibility on passing downs other than to rush the passer.  With some like Mack and Miller we see an overlap with OLBs but in reality those two are primarily Edge Rusher on passing downs.   Leonard Floyd is not.  His versatility makes him more of an OLB than an Edge Rusher.

There was nothing to correct in that post, as I said he was a "utility OLB" and that he "isn't a major passrush threat" earlier in our conversation about him, but he absolutely wasn't drafted to be an off-ball OLB. He was drafted - and traded up for - because they wanted him to be an EDGE. Pace spoke about it several times about how he was going to help the passrush. He talked about his athleticism off the corner, his inside spin move, etc. Vic was high on him and the hope was that he would be a double-digit sack guy, not an off ball linebacker. He wasn't drafted to be a traditional OLB, that is just the role he was relinquished to as a failed EDGE prospect.

 

Before Mack, EDGE was the role he was put in and was simply mediocre at finishing the plays. People here brought up the stats on how his pressure rate was really high but only his number of snaps was limited by his constant nagging injuries. That was to show as an EDGE he had potential of improving and might take the next step to be the primary passrusher he was hoped to become. Here is his stats from 2017.

 

So in that season he rushed for 247 attempts, which some people misconstrue as him being used in multiple ways as it is far lower than others listed, but it was only because he could only play 10 games that the numbers were so low. At 10 games played he averaged 24.7 rush attempts, which equates to 395 attempts in a 16 game season. So Miller, the man you mentioned as an EDGE, averaged less than 2 more attempts per game than Floyd as he played in all 16 games.

So Floyd absolutely was an EDGE, was not near good enough at it or durable enough to rely on, so Pace went and made a deal for a HOF player that was available. Only because of that is Floyd being used otherwise. His lack of passrush ability has made him an off-ball LB, and he is damn lucky to have a versatile skillset so he still had a role. But I'm not going to pretend he was drafted to be the support role he is in today (not saying anyone has here, but I know several who have). He was a mediocre EDGE who was lucky to have the athletic ability and versatility from being moved around at Georgia to be bumped over to a support role OLB once we got Mack. If we didn't get Mack, he would have absolutely been forced to continue with 20+ passrushes per game or we would have used our 1st round pick on someone who could hopefully do it better.

 

[soulman]

4 hours ago, soulman said:

17 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Idc either way, I'm hoping we don't see him take off. They are drafting for potential, not just prior production, and as an EDGE Floyd has been a disappointment overall. He has been solid for numerous spurts but not worth a top 10 pick. I hope Gary isn't either after 4 years.

Shane.....this is what you posted brother so don't be walkin' it back saying you aren't identifying him as such.

And it doesn't matter what Pace has said in the past or what he may have envisioned when he drafted him.  Talk is cheap.  Fangio has used him as a rusher, as an off the ball OLB, in pass coverage and as a "spy".   Even if he hasn't become a double digit sack artist so far if his missed games didn't interfere with that his usage within our defensive schemes has.  This is about what he is now not what he isn't.

Whether or not he has the ability to get more pressures, hits, and sacks is something we may finally learn this year provide Pagano uses him more aggressively as a rusher.  Just based on those 2017 stats is reasonable to project more sacks and pressure had he played more snaps.  Based on his final 8 games in 2018 when 100% healthy his projected 16 games stats would have been 8 sacks/22 hits/16 TFLs/2 Picks.

This year we shouldn't have to project anything.  If he plays all 16 games he should have 400 or more snaps.

No doubt how he performs this year will have a lot to do with negotiations for an extension.  If you want to say I'm being optimistic go ahead but I believe he showed last Nov. and Dec. that he's still and ascending player and if he expects the type of deal that will reward him as a top 5 OLB he's gonna have to earn it.  If he doesn't all bets are off.  His 5th year option is just that.  It's not a guarantee.

In fact I'd even go as far as to say I don't believe Pace will agree to pay him under that option without at first trying to trade him if they can't agree on an extension.  Then he'll have another high draft pick he can use to replace him if it comes to that.  I'm just looking at this as Floyd's agent and Pace will be looking at it. One way or another he's gonna get paid by us or someone else.  Or overpaid by someone else.

[Sugashane]

2 hours ago, soulman said:

Shane.....this is what you posted brother so don't be walkin' it back saying you aren't identifying him as such.

And it doesn't matter what Pace has said in the past or what he may have envisioned when he drafted him.  Talk is cheap.  Fangio has used him as a rusher, as an off the ball OLB, in pass coverage and as a "spy".   Even if he hasn't become a double digit sack artist so far if his missed games didn't interfere with that his usage within our defensive schemes has.  This is about what he is now not what he isn't.

Whether or not he has the ability to get more pressures, hits, and sacks is something we may finally learn this year provide Pagano uses him more aggressively as a rusher.  Just based on those 2017 stats is reasonable to project more sacks and pressure had he played more snaps.  Based on his final 8 games in 2018 when 100% healthy his projected 16 games stats would have been 8 sacks/22 hits/16 TFLs/2 Picks.

This year we shouldn't have to project anything.  If he plays all 16 games he should have 400 or more snaps.

No doubt how he performs this year will have a lot to do with negotiations for an extension.  If you want to say I'm being optimistic go ahead but I believe he showed last Nov. and Dec. that he's still and ascending player and if he expects the type of deal that will reward him as a top 5 OLB he's gonna have to earn it.  If he doesn't all bets are off.  His 5th year option is just that.  It's not a guarantee.

In fact I'd even go as far as to say I don't believe Pace will agree to pay him under that option without at first trying to trade him if they can't agree on an extension.  Then he'll have another high draft pick he can use to replace him if it comes to that.  I'm just looking at this as Floyd's agent and Pace will be looking at it. One way or another he's gonna get paid by us or someone else.  Or overpaid by someone else.

He was an EDGE. He wasn't used as such in 2018 but was the previous two years. The passrush snap count I posted proved that, as he was rushing the passer less than 2 times per game than the EDGE you mentioned - Miller. He was a failure there, so they moved him over once they got Mack. You're misunderstanding, I'm not walking back or mislabeling him. Look at the phrase "has been" - meaning past - and how I did NOT say "is." Sorry Soulman, but you're the one who is incorrect there.

This is also what I posted Friday.

https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/18934-bears-current-cap-situation/?page=2

 

Quote

So Floyd is a utility OLB (because he isn't a major passrush threat) worth being as highly paid as some of the other guys got in FA? I don't believe so.

So don't try to cherrypick my comments like that, it won't work. We both know you're too smart to "forget" that was said. (my words, not yours)

Clearly I don't view him as an EDGE as of last season, he was a failed player there, and Fangio tried to force him to keep at it. The attempt numbers absolutely proved that, especially when compared to Miller, who we both correctly identified as an EDGE. Even Miller has to occasionally drop back or play an assignment (screens, PA assignments, etc). Hell NE forced him into pass coverage that year on 40 percent of the passing downs with clever playcalling.

Here he is talking about the game.

Even Miller concedes there he has to be able to play in coverage, who we can both agree is an EDGE.

You can project stats all you want, but Floyd can't stay on the field AND stay productive yet. I'd say projecting him to play 16 healthy, productive games is far more cheap talk than what Pace and Fangio said and tried to do with Floyd. I'm not going to pretend he was a successful top 10 pick, he IS a failed EDGE project, who now is an off-ball LB since someone else can finally get the job done. If we didn't get Mack, then Pace likely gets an EDGE in the 1st and moves Floyd to his utility role anyway, because trying to force him to be an EDGE wasn't working.

If we are going to project and nitpick, then you should know your stats are incorrect too. His INT was in his 8th game, so it wouldn't count in his "last 8 games." So that shouldn't be included in your stats. It should also be 18 QB HITs, as he only had 11 over the entire 16-game season it could not project to 22 for the last 8 games. So that is incorrect as well. As to how reasonable those projections would have been - if they would have been with accurate numbers- it is with a completely false narrative that he could compile them with a heavy snap count. If he can't stay healthy to begin with (far more proof to this than not - 3 seasons, we can generously say he was at least "not 100%" for 18 of the 48 regular season games the Bears played) then why is he being projected to produce at roughly his best career rate over an 8 game span, but somehow going to be able to do it over 16 games? That is crazy to me. Since he is injured in some manner almost as often as not, why not go on the assumption that he can't stay healthy and go with his injured play in the first 8 weeks? So that would be good for 0 sacks/4 QB hits/2 TFLs/2 INTs over 16 games.  Talk may be cheap, but so is projection. Should we have projected the stats for another injury-riddled player in Callahan? I don't, because he can't seem to stay healthy. Same with Floyd. Played in 16, effective in 8-10... Saying that is worth $10MIL is incredible to me.

Also, 400 is generally a pretty poor snap count from a starter who isn't a 2 down player. lol   Granted he seems a bit  fragile,  due to his poor ability to stay healthy in any of his 3 seasons, but last year he played - not was effective - in all 16 and had almost 800 snaps. He had between 500-600 the other two injury-shortened years. The stats I posted earlier was only against the pass, not total snaps.

I have no issues with your positivity, I actually generally enjoy the positive vibes here bud. I'm just of the mindset that the best ability is availability. If he was making $7-8M per year I could be a bit more forgiving of his injury woes, and I don't question his talent as a utility OLB. I am just calling a spade a spade. He was a failed EDGE who found a niche when Pace smartly realized Floyd couldn't fill that role. He does his new role well, but cannot be expected to do it for 16 games since he can't stay healthy for 16. Also, with how talented the cast is around him, I think his play might be more due to how good THOSE playmakers are than how good Floyd is. Push comes to shove, I am paying Mack, Hicks, Jackson, Fuller, and Smith all before I make sure Floyd is paid. I am paying Tru before him, I am paying Whitehair and Daniels before I pay Floyd. Because they are all better than he is IMO. And they ALL must be considered before giving Floyd $10-13M to be a part time player.  Floyd's role is far easier to replace IMO than any of these impact players. I guess you can argue Whitehair and Daniels aren't "impact players", but they are key to protecting Tru, and none of us want to see Daniel behind center.

To show his importance we can look at the scores in the first 8 weeks (when Floyd was much more ineffective) compared to the last 8 weeks (healthier and much better overall) - First 8 weeks was 18.75 PPG against us. Last 8 weeks was 16.25 PPG. Now looking at NE we had a fumble returned and Patterson had a kickoff return for a TD, so those 14 points come off and it goes to 17PPG.  Take away Ogletree's return for a TD and we have 15.375 PPG. Those 1st weeks also included Smith getting into the rotation (who is a MUCH better player than Kwit), Mack learning the defense, and freak plays like Wilson taking two short tosses to the house. Not to mention several weeks of the offense absolutely sucking prior to the TB game, putting even more stress on the defense as they were trying to find their groove. I'll be honest, if Kwit was in there or Lynch was starting, I don't believe we go from the "bad" 17 PPG to 21 PPG or more. I just don't think Floyd is a key cog in those stats, he is just another supporting cog.

I agree Pace wouldn't agree to pay him like that (your top 5 OLB measure specifically, not the to 5 EDGE. But I disagree we can get a high pick for him. I am not sold we can get him out of here during his 5th year option for a 3rd. EDGE are worth their weight in gold, QBs are worth their weight in gold, constantly injured OLBs that play off-ball aren't. Most of us said Amos was overpaid, and I agree with that. He likely had a reasonable offer from Pace, but knew someone was going to want him more. I see the same with Floyd. Someone will be desperate enough to overpay Floyd by giving him $10M+ per year. I hope it isn't Pace. I feel like there will be numerous utility backers who can step in, even if we have to use one of our 2nds on one to do so. I'll take a rookie at $1.5M per year and investing the other nearly $10M in better players being extended over Floyd at $11M or whatever his value is deemed. If he is getting paid $10M+ per year in a multi-year extension, then Pace has REALLY overpaid IMO. 

Edited May 6, 2019 by Sugashane

[soulman]

Shane, go to Spotrac and review the players listed primarily as Edge Rusher.  The majority of these guys are listed as DE.  Floyd appears only as the 68th highest paid based on his comparison to other Edge Rushers and even his 5th year option salary would barely put him in the top 20 right along side of Preston Smith.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/edge/

Now look at the rankings for OLBs where he currently ranks 29th and his 5th year option salary would rank him 6th just ahead of Preston Smith.  In 2017 Smith's stats were better on more snaps.  If we project Floyd's 2018 snaps from his last 8 games once he finally had two good hands to work with they would about equal Smith's and in fact Smith and Floyd had very similar 2018 stats so let's not cherry pick.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/outside-linebacker/

We can debate all year over what to call Floyd's position but when it comes to negotiations his deal is gonna be based to a large degree on what others of a similar type and level of production are getting and Smith and Barr who are both considered OLBs are closest to this.  In fact Floyd's stats as a pass rusher are actually better in only 3 years than Barr's are in 5 and Floyd and Smith had very similar stats in 2018.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitPr00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FloyLe00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BarrAn00.htm

These are guys to whom Floyd will be compared and if he has a good year in 2019 putting up stats for 16 games that are at least as good or better as his final 8 games of 2018 he's gonna earn a deal pretty similar to Preston Smith's because his 4 year stats will also be very similar to Smith's.

It actually pretty useless for us to even debate what to label Floyd as.  All that matters is how Pace views him and what other similar NFL players will be used as comparatives when the bargaining begins.  Like I said before.  I'm looking at this strictly the way Pace and Floyd's agent will because that's how deals get done.  Hometown discounts only count if two sides are close and a player agrees to a more cap friendly deal because he wants to win.

So in summary if I were to take a guess at what kind of deal we're looking at to extend Floyd I would use Preston Smith's deal as an good example.

Preston Smith

Outside Linebacker Age: 26 Exp: 4 Years

Drafted: Round 2 (#38 overall), 2015 College: Mississippi State Agent(s): Rodney Edwards ()

 

 

• Contract Details
• Career Earnings
• Fines & Suspensions
• Statistics
• Market Value^NEW

• Current Contract

  Preston Smith signed a 4 year, $52,000,000 contract with the Green Bay Packers, including a $16,000,000 signing bonus, $16,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $13,000,000. In 2019, Smith will earn a base salary of $850,000, a signing bonus of $16,000,000, a roster bonus of $500,000 and a workout bonus of $650,000, while carrying a cap hit of $6,000,000 and a dead cap value of $16,000,000.

  Contract Terms: 4 yr(s) / $52,000,000

  Signing Bonus $16,000,000

  Average Salary$13,000,000

  GTD at Sign:$16,000,000

  Total GTD:$16,000,000

  Free Agent:2023 / UFA

  				Bonus Breakdown			Cap Details		Cash Details
  Year		Age	Base Salary	Signing	Roster	Workout	Cap Hit	Dead Cap	Yearly Cash
  2019		26	$850,000	$4,000,000	$500,000	$650,000	$6,000,000	$16,000,000	$18,000,000($18,000,000)
  2020		27	$4,350,000	$4,000,000	$4,500,000	$650,000	$13,500,000	$12,000,000	$9,500,000($27,500,000)
  Potential Out: 2021, 2 yr, $27,500,000; $8,000,000 dead cap
  2021		28	$6,850,000	$4,000,000	$4,500,000	$650,000	$16,000,000	$8,000,000	$12,000,000($39,500,000)
  2022		29	$11,350,000	$4,000,000	$500,000	$650,000	$16,500,000	$4,000,000	$12,500,000($52,000,000)
  2023		30	UFA

[Sugashane]

We can use Preston Smith's deal, that's fine. If Floyd gets paid that (as of right now ar least), then Pace has really overpaid. Because Floyd isn't durable like Smith is. He has been healthy for about half of his career, so even if he does have one season where he actually does stay healthy then it will seem like more of an aberration than anything. 

 

Whatever label used, whatever position he is called, Floyd isn't worth $13M per year, to me he isn't worth $10M per year. He is talented, but fragile. The best thing he can do for the Bears is drive up value for a trade next year, because the Bears have have far better pieces to re-sign and to allocate their resources to. He is far from replaceable. 

[CWood21]

On 5/4/2019 at 7:41 AM, beardown3231 said:

Yes he was

Noah Fant: 39 receptions, 513 receiving yards, 7 TD receptions
TJ Hockenson: 49 receptions, 760 receiving yards, 6 TD receptions

[CWood21]

On 5/4/2019 at 10:49 AM, Heinz D. said:

My point is that he was Green Bay's BPA based solely on athletic measurables and overall potential. That should be the sort of reasoning guiding your drafting in later rounds, not with the twelfth overall pick. Fant wouldn't have been a reach at twelve anyway (not would some of the other guys I mentioned). Fant would have been the first TE off the board if Hockenson hadn't declared. 

 And the ONLY reason why you're "blasting" the Packers pick is because he didn't post some gaudy sack total.  There's no reasoning behind it other than simply an arbitrary reason to dismiss one player.  You don't draft for floors in the first round.  You're drafting for franchise players.  Noah Fant went 20th overall, so we can stop pretending like he was some no brainer decision.  If Fant was this superstar prospect that you claim him to be, why did the 7 teams between the Packers and Broncos not select him?

[CWood21]

On 5/4/2019 at 3:21 PM, Heinz D. said:

Had Ferentz not tweaked the playing time, Fant would have had more yards. They're both really good. 

And the excuses begin.  Ironic how you're willing to make excuses for why Fant wasn't more productive, but the second someone tries to explain why Gary didn't put up bigger numbers you shove your head in the sand like nothing is happening around it.

[CWood21]

On 5/4/2019 at 6:08 PM, beardown3231 said:

No let's do their careers at Iowa

Yes he was

So...we're going to "fluff" Fant's numbers because he got some meaningless burn back in 2016 against some awful teams?  No.  Let's make the fair comparison and look at the last 2 years.

Fant: 69 receptions, 1013 receiving yards, 18 TD receptions
Hock: 73 receptions, 1080 receiving yards, 9 TD receptions

Not a meaningful difference, but a difference nonetheless.  Despite the fact that Fant tested better than Hock, Hock went 8th overall to Detroit while Fant went 20th overall to Denver.

[CWood21]

On 5/4/2019 at 10:33 PM, Sugashane said:

Idc either way, I'm hoping we don't see him take off. They are drafting for potential, not just prior production, and as an EDGE Floyd has been a disappointment overall. He has been solid for numerous spurts but not worth a top 10 pick. I hope Gary isn't either after 4 years. 

If Gary had the production to match the measurables, he would have been a top 3 pick.  He wouldn't have gotten past the Jets IMO, and even then I think the 49ers would have had a hard time passing on Gary for Bosa even if Bosa is that good.  The Packers rarely get the ability to draft someone like Gary, production or not.  You don't usually get impact pass rushers beyond the top 10.