NFC North Rivals 2019 Talk

[WindyCity]

I would have picked Gary over Fant and I am not a huge Gary fan.

TE is just not a position that returns the investment of a high 1st round pick.

I thought Hockenson was awesome, but taking him top 10 was about the most predictable weak pick I thought the Lions would make. How many top 10 TEs have ever returned on that investment?

[Heinz D.]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

 And the ONLY reason why you're "blasting" the Packers pick is because he didn't post some gaudy sack total.  There's no reasoning behind it other than simply an arbitrary reason to dismiss one player.  You don't draft for floors in the first round.  You're drafting for franchise players.  Noah Fant went 20th overall, so we can stop pretending like he was some no brainer decision.  If Fant was this superstar prospect that you claim him to be, why did the 7 teams between the Packers and Broncos not select him?

Good lord. You really don't understand how the draft works, huh? I'm not going to take the time to explain it to you. 

You know that you can actually criticize something the Packers did without Rodgers TPing your house and taking all your Packers gear/stuff from you. Right? 

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

And the excuses begin.  Ironic how you're willing to make excuses for why Fant wasn't more productive, but the second someone tries to explain why Gary didn't put up bigger numbers you shove your head in the sand like nothing is happening around it.

Harbaugh reduce Gary's snaps? Call him a "role player"? 

There's a very simple reason Gary didn't produce better numbers. He didn't play very well in long stretches. You still going to use your similarly convoluted defense of Clay Matthews--now that Gutekunst made the right move and got rid of him? Or is Matthews now deserving of being cut, since the Packers did it? 

[dll2000]

3 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I would have picked Gary over Fant and I am not a huge Gary fan.

TE is just not a position that returns the investment of a high 1st round pick.

I thought Hockenson was awesome, but taking him top 10 was about the most predictable weak pick I thought the Lions would make. How many top 10 TEs have ever returned on that investment?

I agree. You have to be Gronk or Gonzalez to be worth a top 10 pick. 

[Heinz D.]

15 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I agree. You have to be Gronk or Gonzalez to be worth a top 10 pick. 

But they weren't taken top ten, were they? Either way, some TEs should be. 

[soulman]

6 hours ago, Sugashane said:

We can use Preston Smith's deal, that's fine. If Floyd gets paid that (as of right now ar least), then Pace has really overpaid. Because Floyd isn't durable like Smith is. He has been healthy for about half of his career, so even if he does have one season where he actually does stay healthy then it will seem like more of an aberration than anything. 

 

Whatever label used, whatever position he is called, Floyd isn't worth $13M per year, to me he isn't worth $10M per year. He is talented, but fragile. The best thing he can do for the Bears is drive up value for a trade next year, because the Bears have have far better pieces to re-sign and to allocate their resources to. He is far from replaceable. 

OK, first of all we aren't talking about "right now".  We're talking about 2020 after he has another full season on record.  Now let's review his injury history.

Despite a broken right hand Floyd played 16 games in 2018.  Half of them with some form of a cast on his hand.  Once he had two good hands his play improved dramatically.  Despite that injury his 2018 stats and Preston Smith's were nearly the same.

Previously as I recall he had  concussions which kept him out of 2 games back in 2016 due to NFL protocol.  That can't be avoided now like it could be in the past but I also don't see a concussion as part of being "fragile".  He was a raw rookie who had to learn better tackling technique.  He did and that issue ended in 2016. He also missed 2 games in early Oct. prior to his concussions with a leg injury so all of that was in his rookie year when it's not uncommon for players to sustain more injuries while still building NFL strength and stamina.  He's not the first or the only one.  Kyle Fuller missed the entire 2016 season (his 3rd) yet came back to become an All Pro in 2018.

Floyd also missed 6 games in 2017 with MCL and PCL tears that required surgery.  So 8 games total due to injuries and 2 with a concussion out of 48.  So it's not like he's missed 50% of them or even close to half as you imply.  I love ya' brother but dammit stick to facts OK?

Preston Smith has been healthier, that's also a fact.  So maybe Floyd's injury history does have an impact on negotiations but IMHO if he plays 16 games in 2019 the same way he played the last 8 in 2018 it won't be a factor more than a certain amount tied to per game bonuses.  His extension will be based on future performance not past performance.

I grant you your opinion of his worth but I'll also say that it's very subjective and most likely inaccurate.  In 2019 the going rate for a top ten OLB is in the range of $12-$13 mil AAV and that's all I'm trying to point out.  I'd love to sign him for $10 mil a year as well but I don't believe that's practical and I've given my reasons with facts to back them up.  It's what I try to do.

We can play all of the mock contract/cap games we like here but it's how the negotiation game between agents and GMs is played for real not in our own imaginations.  If Pace feels Floyd's price is more than he wants to pay then he may decide to trade him before the 2020 season and let someone else pay the freight getting a pick he can use to replace him.

I really don't know how it will work out in the end.  All I'm doing is laying out what I believe are facts and logical thinking some of which is based on some personal experience with contracts for athletes and entertainers.

Edited May 7, 2019 by soulman

[CWood21]

5 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

Good lord. You really don't understand how the draft works, huh? I'm not going to take the time to explain it to you. 

You know that you can actually criticize something the Packers did without Rodgers TPing your house and taking all your Packers gear/stuff from you. Right?

Then entertain me.  Explain to me why Gary was a bad pick other than parroting what a few talking heads said or what some at best lazy analysis brings you.  I offered up the chance for you to explain why you think Gary would suck, and you keep parroting what you heard from a talking head somewhere.  Instead of jumping at the possibility to prove me wrong, you continue to dance around the argument.  If you don't know much about Gary, I don't blame you.  I don't know much about the Bears' picks outside of David Montgomery and Riley Ridley, who were both solid picks btw.  But that's not what I'm getting at.  If you can't find the quality in Gary, you're not trying to which means you have no basis for having a reasonable argument that's fact based.  Let's have some real analysis.  Not just some lazy argument.

5 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

Harbaugh reduce Gary's snaps? Call him a "role player"? 

There's a very simple reason Gary didn't produce better numbers. He didn't play very well in long stretches. You still going to use your similarly convoluted defense of Clay Matthews--now that Gutekunst made the right move and got rid of him? Or is Matthews now deserving of being cut, since the Packers did it? 

Because he was the focal point of opposing teams' game plans.  Go watch any of the games, and how many double teams did Gary face compared to say Devin Bush or Chase Winovich?  He was the cog that made that defense run.  Wanna go look at Winovich's production in the games Gary missed?  10 tackles, 0.5 TFL, AND 0 sacks.  Devin Bush?  14 tackles, 2 TFL, and 2 sacks.  Chase Winovich owes Rashan Gary his first paycheck.  Extrapolate Winovich's stats without Gary, and that comes out to 43 tackles, 2 TFL, and 0 sacks.  In the 9 games with Gary, he had 49 tackles, 15 TFL, and 5 sacks.  Harbaugh is a pretty good defensive-minded, and even he's smart enough to credit Gary for the impact.

But no, apparently he was overdrafted simply because the fact that he ran a 4.58 forty.  I'm guessing you're going to make the argument that Jadeveon Clowney isn't very good either, right?  I mean, he's never had double-digit sacks.  He must be garbage.

[Sugashane]

4 hours ago, soulman said:

OK, first of all we aren't talking about "right now".  We're talking about 2020 after he has another full season on record.  Now let's review his injury history.

Despite a broken right hand Floyd played 16 games in 2018.  Half of them with some form of a cast on his hand.  Once he had two good hands his play improved dramatically.  Despite that injury his 2018 stats and Preston Smith's were nearly the same.

Previously as I recall he had  concussions which kept him out of 2 games back in 2016 due to NFL protocol.  That can't be avoided now like it could be in the past but I also don't see a concussion as part of being "fragile".  He was a raw rookie who had to learn better tackling technique.  He did and that issue ended in 2016. He also missed 2 games in early Oct. prior to his concussions with a leg injury so all of that was in his rookie year when it's not uncommon for players to sustain more injuries while still building NFL strength and stamina.  He's not the first or the only one.  Kyle Fuller missed the entire 2016 season (his 3rd) yet came back to become an All Pro in 2018.

Floyd also missed 6 games in 2017 with MCL and PCL tears that required surgery.  So 8 games total due to injuries and 2 with a concussion out of 48.  So it's not like he's missed 50% of them or even close to half as you imply.  I love ya' brother but dammit stick to facts OK?

Preston Smith has been healthier, that's also a fact.  So maybe Floyd's injury history does have an impact on negotiations but IMHO if he plays 16 games in 2019 the same way he played the last 8 in 2018 it won't be a factor more than a certain amount tied to per game bonuses.  His extension will be based on future performance not past performance.

I grant you your opinion of his worth but I'll also say that it's very subjective and most likely inaccurate.  In 2019 the going rate for a top ten OLB is in the range of $12-$13 mil AAV and that's all I'm trying to point out.  I'd love to sign him for $10 mil a year as well but I don't believe that's practical and I've given my reasons with facts to back them up.  It's what I try to do.

We can play all of the mock contract/cap games we like here but it's how the negotiation game between agents and GMs is played for real not in our own imaginations.  If Pace feels Floyd's price is more than he wants to pay then he may decide to trade him before the 2020 season and let someone else pay the freight getting a pick he can use to replace him.

I really don't know how it will work out in the end.  All I'm doing is laying out what I believe are facts and logical thinking some of which is based on some personal experience with contracts for athletes and entertainers.

First of all,  I am using today and past play as a reference,  sms you have too, so yes we are. 

Stick to facts? Bold statement, but I'll play along. Missed 10 of 32 games completely his first two years, had a cast for 8 which you even admit affected his play "dramatically" - as I said "healthy", not active- so right there we are talking about him not being healthy for 18 for 48 regular season games. He left due to some injury during the Rams game as well, so 19 of 48. That is almost 40% right there. Im not looking it up because I grant don't care, but I'd wager there are more games in the first two years that he was not healthy in and was probably used as an excuse for poor plays. So the FACT is that I said he was not healthy for nearly half, and I just pointed out about 40% off the top of my head.  If you want me to stick to facts please so yourself. I never said he missed half his games and pretending I did is far from being factual. You've misinterpreted my posts and errored on your own numbers, so be factual before claiming I'm not sticking to facts. 

You can try to focus on after 2020, but if you're going to be able to base stats off the 2nd half of the 2018 then why the hell is the injury history for all 3 years supposed to be dismissable? Can't have it both ways. 

That "raw rookie" played a lot of MLB at Georgia, it isn't lime he was a completely converted DE learning to play off ball. Georgia had a damn good coaching staff too. Again, those are facts. 

He will get over $10M, you're probably right on with the numbers. I'm saying he isn't worth it to the Bears, IMO. He is far more replaceable than basically half the defensive starters. 

 

We can agree to disagree. I like Floyd and hope he does well obviously. Just not sold on him or his durability. 

Edited May 7, 2019 by Sugashane

[Sugashane]

8 hours ago, CWood21 said:

If Gary had the production to match the measurables, he would have been a top 3 pick.  He wouldn't have gotten past the Jets IMO, and even then I think the 49ers would have had a hard time passing on Gary for Bosa even if Bosa is that good.  The Packers rarely get the ability to draft someone like Gary, production or not.  You don't usually get impact pass rushers beyond the top 10.

No arguements here, his lack of production is his biggest issue.  I think Bosa still goes first mostly due to his name/lineage but still.

I admittedly soured on him (though I understand why he did it) for sitting out and leaving his team like that. 

[soulman]

10 hours ago, Sugashane said:

First of all,  I am using today and past play as a reference,  sms you have too, so yes we are. 

Stick to facts? Bold statement, but I'll play along. Missed 10 of 32 games completely his first two years, had a cast for 8 which you even admit affected his play "dramatically" - as I said "healthy", not active- so right there we are talking about him not being healthy for 18 for 48 regular season games. He left due to some injury during the Rams game as well, so 19 of 48. That is almost 40% right there. Im not looking it up because I grant don't care, but I'd wager there are more games in the first two years that he was not healthy in and was probably used as an excuse for poor plays. So the FACT is that I said he was not healthy for nearly half, and I just pointed out about 40% off the top of my head.  If you want me to stick to facts please so yourself. I never said he missed half his games and pretending I did is far from being factual. You've misinterpreted my posts and errored on your own numbers, so be factual before claiming I'm not sticking to facts. 

You can try to focus on after 2020, but if you're going to be able to base stats off the 2nd half of the 2018 then why the hell is the injury history for all 3 years supposed to be dismissable? Can't have it both ways. 

That "raw rookie" played a lot of MLB at Georgia, it isn't lime he was a completely converted DE learning to play off ball. Georgia had a damn good coaching staff too. Again, those are facts. 

He will get over $10M, you're probably right on with the numbers. I'm saying he isn't worth it to the Bears, IMO. He is far more replaceable than basically half the defensive starters. 

 

We can agree to disagree. I like Floyd and hope he does well obviously. Just not sold on him or his durability. 

OK, since we both like stats comparisons let's do it this way.

In the past 3 seasons and despite playing 10 games less Floyd's stats are very similar to Smith's.  Now it's apples to apples.

Sacks; Smith 16.5, Floyd 15.5

Hits; Smith 49, Floyd 32

TFL; Smith 23, Floyd 23

TKL; Smith 134, Floyd 114

So the only stats where Smith has a decided differences are Hits and Tackles where Smith's availability boosted his numbers but as far as impact plays go, Sacks and TFL, they are nearly identical even though Floyd played 10 games fewer.  This will count in negotiations and that's all I've been trying to point out.  It's what will come up when Pace meets with Floyd's agent if only because prior deals tend to set the market.  We know this to be true.

Floyd will get more than $10 mil a year from someone.  Is he worth more than that to Pace?  We don't know but my guess is knowing he'll need to either extend him or trade him before his 5th year salary kicks in Floyd's availability and his 2019 performance will be under a microscope not only by Pace but other GMs as well.  If Floyd wants a 4 yr/$50 mil extension or thereabouts he'll need to earn in this year and put all doubt about injuries aside.

Getting into how replaceable he is and who would do that I can't even fathom now.  Pace finds ascending players in FA and he drafts well so maybe he does deal Floyd, or maybe he doesn't.  But what is significant here Kyle Long is the only other player whose option Pace picked up and he was extended (4 yrs/$40 mil) that same year and that was smart on Long's part because he was protected when his injuries piled up.

Unless Floyd is willing to take a lesser deal now and avoid the risk that even more injuries will impact his value I would wait for the results of 2019.  So Pace may be able to use that to his advantage.  The option salary is only guaranteed against injury next year.  Pace can always withdraw the option prior to the beginning of the 2020 league year for any reason including injury in which case Floyd then becomes a unrestricted free agent.

So, we do have some leverage but IMHO not enough to get the deal down to a $10 mil AAV.  Not when his option salary and a franchise tag are at $13 mil and change.  Let's keep an eye on it and see what happens.  Whitehair is more than likely first in line for an extension and Floyd next.  Maybe Pace gets both done this summer and maybe only Whitehair.  Either way my guess is it will be done this summer or not 'til after the season ends.

Edited May 7, 2019 by soulman

[Sugashane]

@soulman. ^^^ now that is a post I agree with completely. 

 

Numbers match up, one can argue Floyd received less than Smith attention due to Mack, Hicks, etc being the focal point but regardless he made the plays. Same with Amos, he had Fuller, Jackson and Amukamara around him but he made the plays consistently and was paid in FA. 

 

I'll be rooting for Floyd to have a good year, and I'd be happy to re-sign him if he can stay healthy this season. I just question how Pace is going to re-sign him and a few guys that will receive monster deals (Tru, Jackson, and Smith in particular). If Pace can manage it then I'll be ecstatic, and I'm not going to get against Pace. I'm just going to wait and see if it happens, and if Floyd ends up elsewhere it's not going to be a major shock to me. He is a damn good kid, I'll root for him anywhere he goes... if he leaves the division. Lol

[malak1]

9 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Explain to me why Gary was a bad pick other than parroting what a few talking heads said or what some at best lazy analysis brings you

Explain to me why Gary was a bad pick without using reasons why he was a bad pick. 😂😂

[soulman]

6 hours ago, Sugashane said:

@soulman. ^^^ now that is a post I agree with completely. 

 

Numbers match up, one can argue Floyd received less than Smith attention due to Mack, Hicks, etc being the focal point but regardless he made the plays. Same with Amos, he had Fuller, Jackson and Amukamara around him but he made the plays consistently and was paid in FA. 

 

I'll be rooting for Floyd to have a good year, and I'd be happy to re-sign him if he can stay healthy this season. I just question how Pace is going to re-sign him and a few guys that will receive monster deals (Tru, Jackson, and Smith in particular). If Pace can manage it then I'll be ecstatic, and I'm not going to get against Pace. I'm just going to wait and see if it happens, and if Floyd ends up elsewhere it's not going to be a major shock to me. He is a damn good kid, I'll root for him anywhere he goes... if he leaves the division. Lol

That's how you and I negotiate.  LOLOL

One reason I believe Pace may move on him early is the deadline for withdrawing Floyd's 5th year option is in March when the new league year begins and before FA starts.  If he realizes they may not come to an agreement he'll need to be shopping Floyd long before March.

Once he hits that deadline Pace has to make a choice.  Keep the 5th option in place, take a $13 mil cap hit, then keep negotiating or rescind it and Floyd becomes a FA.  A third option would be to do what he did with Fuller and hit Floyd with a non-exclusive rights tag and let the market set his price.

I think it all depends on how badly Pace wants to keep one of his more successful 1st round picks vs either signing a lower cost vet or drafting Floyd's replacement or quite possibly both as we did at RB this year.  That's why I feel this is one of those deal we can keep an eye because it has an end point.

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, malak1 said:

Explain to me why Gary was a bad pick without using reasons why he was a bad pick. 😂😂

All I'd like for him to do is post a video and narrate a few minutes of it.  Didn't think that was too much to ask for.

[dll2000]

16 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

But they weren't taken top ten, were they? Either way, some TEs should be. 

I think if you get a truly great player any position is worth a top 10 pick.

You wouldn't think a guard would be worth it in top 10, but you get a player as good as Q. Nelson and it is. 

Same with ILB, interior DL, Safety, RB or TE.

These are low(er) value positions, but if you got Ray Lewis (maybe R. Smith we'll see), Aaron Donald, Jackson, Barkley or Gronk respectively you would be happy because those guys are impacting the game at a high level.   There are no unimportant positions.  

Now should Giants have taken Barkley?  No.  They should have taken a QB, but in a vacuum Barkley is worth a top 10 pick all day long.  

 

 

 

[Heinz D.]

19 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Then entertain me.  Explain to me why Gary was a bad pick other than parroting what a few talking heads said or what some at best lazy analysis brings you.  I offered up the chance for you to explain why you think Gary would suck, and you keep parroting what you heard from a talking head somewhere.  Instead of jumping at the possibility to prove me wrong, you continue to dance around the argument.  If you don't know much about Gary, I don't blame you.  I don't know much about the Bears' picks outside of David Montgomery and Riley Ridley, who were both solid picks btw.  But that's not what I'm getting at.  If you can't find the quality in Gary, you're not trying to which means you have no basis for having a reasonable argument that's fact based.  Let's have some real analysis.  Not just some lazy argument.

Because he was the focal point of opposing teams' game plans.  Go watch any of the games, and how many double teams did Gary face compared to say Devin Bush or Chase Winovich?  He was the cog that made that defense run.  Wanna go look at Winovich's production in the games Gary missed?  10 tackles, 0.5 TFL, AND 0 sacks.  Devin Bush?  14 tackles, 2 TFL, and 2 sacks.  Chase Winovich owes Rashan Gary his first paycheck.  Extrapolate Winovich's stats without Gary, and that comes out to 43 tackles, 2 TFL, and 0 sacks.  In the 9 games with Gary, he had 49 tackles, 15 TFL, and 5 sacks.  Harbaugh is a pretty good defensive-minded, and even he's smart enough to credit Gary for the impact.

But no, apparently he was overdrafted simply because the fact that he ran a 4.58 forty.  I'm guessing you're going to make the argument that Jadeveon Clowney isn't very good either, right?  I mean, he's never had double-digit sacks.  He must be garbage.

I've watched games. Gary wasn't always the focus of opposing teams' game plans. That's crazy talk. 

According to you, essentially, where players were drafted is an automatic gauge of their worth.

So, Trubisky's automatically the second best player of the '17 draft, then? Love to hear your follow up on that .

And--are we now pretending Clowney didn't have double digit sacks in college the year before his injury?  Explain to me how that works. You tell us something didn't happen--which did--and we're supposed to automatically agree with you? Seems twisted, at best.

This is now simply madness, and I'm treating it as such. 

You're not arguing with me in an attempt to convince me on Gary...this is an argument with yourself, in an attempt to maintain your mental illusion that the Packers don't make mistakes. 

They did, and I'm done with this garbage.