Matthew Stafford and Lions agree to new deal

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

2 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

The point here is you seem to be arguing that Stafford would be elite (or is elite) if he had a run game and offensive line, and those three QBs are elite without some of those pieces, and certainly without a Calvin Johnson. In other words - it's not necessary. And nobody is slotting Stafford behind those three, I assure you.

Nope.  Not my argument at all.

I'm arguing that the team's record is being held against Stafford when the team's record was heavily influenced by significant weaknesses.  That, had the defense not been mediocre, running game not been invisible and the protection not been below-average, the team's record would have been vastly better, and Stafford's perception vastly improved.  You know, context.

[y2lamanaki]

1 hour ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Nope.  Not my argument at all.

I'm arguing that the team's record is being held against Stafford when the team's record was heavily influenced by significant weaknesses.  That, had the defense not been mediocre, running game not been invisible and the protection not been below-average, the team's record would have been vastly better, and Stafford's perception vastly improved.  You know, context.

And I have not been interested in the team's record at any point during this conversation. 

[y2lamanaki]

2 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Alright.  Using that same questionable rationale, Stafford has been one of the most prolific QBs in the NFL since 2011 because he has had some of the most passing yards in the league during that time.  Surely you agree?

Correct. Since 2011, Matthew Stafford has been the third most prolific QB in the NFL. This is an accurate usage of this vocabulary word. 

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

25 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

Correct. Since 2011, Matthew Stafford has been the third most prolific QB in the NFL. This is an accurate usage of this vocabulary word. 

Knowing that, do you feel that, based on the current QB market and contract trends at the position, he was overpaid?

[y2lamanaki]

2 hours ago, nagahide13 said:

Actually, some of us are just saying that you're cherry picking stats and lacking context. Which is accurate. When I mentioned Stafford's volume stats, which are among the greatest to have ever played in the NFL, the point was completely ignored. Context. When one is forced to throw 50 times a game with no defense or running game, one's efficiency stats tend to suffer. 

 

 

And when one is forced to throw 50 times a game, one's volume stats tend to be solid.

That said, counting only for games in which the quarterback attempted 50 passes or more between 2009 and 2016, Matt Stafford ranks 4th in total games played behind Brady, Brees, and Flacco. So yes, it seems to correlate that he is frequently passing the ball. However, Matt Stafford's win percentage in those games ranks 24th in the NFL, as he sits at 1-10, and he's behind all three of the aforementioned.

1	Josh McCown	2015	2015	CLE	1	0	0	1.000	1
2	Michael Vick	2012	2012	PHI	1	0	0	1.000	1
3	Tom Brady	2009	2016	NWE	9	5	0	0.643	14
4	Andrew Luck	2012	2015	IND	3	3	0	0.500	6
5	Nick Foles	2012	2014	PHI	1	1	0	0.500	2
6	Matt Hasselbeck	2009	2009	SEA	1	1	0	0.500	2
7	Brian Hoyer	2013	2014	CLE	1	1	0	0.500	2
8	Donovan McNabb	2009	2010	PHI/WAS	1	1	0	0.500	2
9	Ben Roethlisberger	2011	2015	PIT	2	3	0	0.400	5
10	Peyton Manning	2009	2014	IND/DEN	3	6	0	0.333	9
11	Tony Romo	2009	2013	DAL	2	4	0	0.333	6
12	Matt Schaub	2009	2012	HOU	2	4	0	0.333	6
13	Derek Carr	2014	2016	OAK	1	2	0	0.333	3
14	Aaron Rodgers	2015	2016	GNB	1	2	0	0.333	3
15	Eli Manning	2012	2016	NYG	2	5	0	0.286	7
16	Matt Ryan	2010	2013	ATL	2	5	0	0.286	7
17	Drew Brees	2010	2016	NOR	3	9	0	0.250	12
18	Joe Flacco	2011	2016	BAL	3	9	0	0.250	12
19	Ryan Fitzpatrick	2010	2015	BUF/TEN/NYJ	1	3	0	0.250	4
20	Chad Henne	2009	2013	MIA/JAX	1	3	0	0.250	4
21	Kyle Orton	2009	2014	DEN/BUF	1	3	0	0.250	4
22	Kirk Cousins	2016	2016	WAS	0	1	1	0.250	2
23	Philip Rivers	2010	2015	SDG	1	5	0	0.167	6
24	Matthew Stafford	2009	2015	DET	1	10	0	0.091	11

And I didn't do anything with the mentioning of volume stats, because they can be misleading. If they weren't misleading, Vinny Testaverde, Drew Bledsoe, and Kerry Collins would all be Hall of Famers. But because they've attempted the 10th, 9th, and 12th most pass attempts of all-time, of course they accrued volume stats. And when you look at efficiency stats, you can separate the strong from the weak. Brees has volume and efficiency, Manning had volume and efficiency, Brady has volume and efficiency. This is the difference. 

[y2lamanaki]

6 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Knowing that, do you feel that, based on the current QB market and contract trends at the position, he was overpaid?

Nope. Haven't once said and/or indicated he was overpaid. Because at the same time, I believe most of the QBs have been extremely overpaid in relation to the salary cap/team needs. And as I said to start this conversation, in a few years it won't matter because Stafford's contract will revert appropriately back to the middle of the pack. I don't disagree that the Lions did what they had to do and that other teams will continue to do what they have to do with lesser QBs simply because of the rise in cap/comparable contracts. 

I entered this conversation merely to showcase Stafford's stats compared with other quarterbacks to indicate in which tier he belongs based on previous conversation, and to state that despite the large contract, it won't harm Detroit. Which I explicitly stated in my original post. 

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

On 30/08/2017 at 1:33 PM, y2lamanaki said:

Even looking at some advanced metrics, Stafford has never finished higher than 10th in DVOA for a single season, and in last year's impressive season, he was merely 14th. It seems like quite the overpay.

You sure?

[y2lamanaki]

16 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

You sure?

Yes, because the two paragraphs following that statement explain why it only "seems" like an overpay: 

 

Quote

The flip side of this is that in 2018, Cousins, Bradford, Winston, and Mariotta will all have the ability to top it (and I imagine at least two of them will), and by the end of the 2020 season, all but 4 of the current starting QBs will need new contracts that will push Stafford's deal back toward the middle of the pack. But it will be one of the top QB contracts over the next 3 seasons.

And the other side - the Lions still have near $50 million in cap room for 2018, so it's not like they won't be able to do much of what they'd need. Especially since that now factors in the oversized QB contract most teams have on their cap. 

 

 

That's called context. When you read it as the whole it's intended to be, you get a full thought. 

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

You first posted context free stats and said it seemed like quite the overpay, then mentioned that other QBs will be overpaid in the future, then claimed that you never said or implied that it was an overpayment, before adding that you feel most QBs are "extremely overpaid".  Having a hard time following your take on QB contracts.

2 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

I entered this conversation merely to showcase Stafford's stats compared with other quarterbacks to indicate in which tier he belongs based on previous conversation, and to state that despite the large contract, it won't harm Detroit. Which I explicitly stated in my original post. 

Stats that lacked all context.  You posted stats to indicate which tier Stafford belongs in without considering defensive strength, running game, protection, supporting cast... do you honestly not see an issue with that?

[ILoveTheVikings]

Highest played player in history to a guy that has like a 9% winning percentage against teams with winning records.

 

Yeah...

[nagahide13]

12 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

And when one is forced to throw 50 times a game, one's volume stats tend to be solid.

That said, counting only for games in which the quarterback attempted 50 passes or more between 2009 and 2016, Matt Stafford ranks 4th in total games played behind Brady, Brees, and Flacco. So yes, it seems to correlate that he is frequently passing the ball. However, Matt Stafford's win percentage in those games ranks 24th in the NFL, as he sits at 1-10, and he's behind all three of the aforementioned.

1	Josh McCown	2015	2015	CLE	1	0	0	1.000	1
2	Michael Vick	2012	2012	PHI	1	0	0	1.000	1
3	Tom Brady	2009	2016	NWE	9	5	0	0.643	14
4	Andrew Luck	2012	2015	IND	3	3	0	0.500	6
5	Nick Foles	2012	2014	PHI	1	1	0	0.500	2
6	Matt Hasselbeck	2009	2009	SEA	1	1	0	0.500	2
7	Brian Hoyer	2013	2014	CLE	1	1	0	0.500	2
8	Donovan McNabb	2009	2010	PHI/WAS	1	1	0	0.500	2
9	Ben Roethlisberger	2011	2015	PIT	2	3	0	0.400	5
10	Peyton Manning	2009	2014	IND/DEN	3	6	0	0.333	9
11	Tony Romo	2009	2013	DAL	2	4	0	0.333	6
12	Matt Schaub	2009	2012	HOU	2	4	0	0.333	6
13	Derek Carr	2014	2016	OAK	1	2	0	0.333	3
14	Aaron Rodgers	2015	2016	GNB	1	2	0	0.333	3
15	Eli Manning	2012	2016	NYG	2	5	0	0.286	7
16	Matt Ryan	2010	2013	ATL	2	5	0	0.286	7
17	Drew Brees	2010	2016	NOR	3	9	0	0.250	12
18	Joe Flacco	2011	2016	BAL	3	9	0	0.250	12
19	Ryan Fitzpatrick	2010	2015	BUF/TEN/NYJ	1	3	0	0.250	4
20	Chad Henne	2009	2013	MIA/JAX	1	3	0	0.250	4
21	Kyle Orton	2009	2014	DEN/BUF	1	3	0	0.250	4
22	Kirk Cousins	2016	2016	WAS	0	1	1	0.250	2
23	Philip Rivers	2010	2015	SDG	1	5	0	0.167	6
24	Matthew Stafford	2009	2015	DET	1	10	0	0.091	11

And I didn't do anything with the mentioning of volume stats, because they can be misleading. If they weren't misleading, Vinny Testaverde, Drew Bledsoe, and Kerry Collins would all be Hall of Famers. But because they've attempted the 10th, 9th, and 12th most pass attempts of all-time, of course they accrued volume stats. And when you look at efficiency stats, you can separate the strong from the weak. Brees has volume and efficiency, Manning had volume and efficiency, Brady has volume and efficiency. This is the difference. 

His win percentage? This is incredible. It's like you're doing it on purpose. The entire discussion is centered around why Stafford's win total isn't higher than it theoretically should be, and you're circling back on the original issue as evidence?

Take a look at how many games Stafford threw 50+ times. Compare that to the rest of the players on your list. That's indicative of the point I was making... He had to do it more often on a far worse team. 

How on Earth do you figure Vinny, Drew and Kerry would be HOF ? They don't have high volume stats, they have lots of career pass attempts. I'm talking about Yards, TDs, etc in a season. Not over a career. I honestly didn't think I needed to clarify that. I'm talking about a 29 year old that's putting up all time great SEASONAL volume stats. 

Every single time you actually make a pertinent point, it seems to be that "Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are better". Of course they are. So is Aaron Rodgers. 

Perhaps the most telling of all is that all of Stafford's detractors refuse to speak about his play over the last two years. If you have to bring up 5 years ago just so you can ignore right now, you're really, really stretching.

[nagahide13]

12 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

Yes, because the two paragraphs following that statement explain why it only "seems" like an overpay: 

 

 

That's called context. When you read it as the whole it's intended to be, you get a full thought. 

Now that's just mean, hehe.

[y2lamanaki]

1 hour ago, nagahide13 said:

His win percentage? This is incredible. It's like you're doing it on purpose. The entire discussion is centered around why Stafford's win total isn't higher than it theoretically should be, and you're circling back on the original issue as evidence?

Take a look at how many games Stafford threw 50+ times. Compare that to the rest of the players on your list. That's indicative of the point I was making... He had to do it more often on a far worse team. 

How on Earth do you figure Vinny, Drew and Kerry would be HOF ? They don't have high volume stats, they have lots of career pass attempts. I'm talking about Yards, TDs, etc in a season. Not over a career. I honestly didn't think I needed to clarify that. I'm talking about a 29 year old that's putting up all time great SEASONAL volume stats. 

Every single time you actually make a pertinent point, it seems to be that "Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are better". Of course they are. So is Aaron Rodgers. 

Perhaps the most telling of all is that all of Stafford's detractors refuse to speak about his play over the last two years. If you have to bring up 5 years ago just so you can ignore right now, you're really, really stretching.

Point by point: 

Second paragraph: Stafford did have to do it 4th most often, and his teams are highly comparable to the Ravens and Saints teams in which Flacco and Brees were working with, yet they didn't struggle to win like Stafford did. If you look at those games, their defenses and running games were struggling all the same. Even in today's pass-happy NFL, 50 attempts likely means your defense is allowing points and you can't run the ball. Throughout this argument, I was told that when one throws the ball 50x per game, one's efficiency stats tend to suffer, and you don't win games...yet other quarterbacks facing that SAME EXACT scenario don't seem to have this problem. In other words - it was just another excuse. It's not at all indicative of the point you were making, it's indicative that the point you were making didn't hold weight.

Third paragraph: You were unhappy that volume stats were ignored. I said if volume stats mattered, Vinny, Drew, and Kerry would be Hall of Fame QBs. I don't figure they should be, I'm using it to point out why volume stats are meaningless. Now you've indicated that you meant "season stats." Fair enough. In 1994, Drew Bledsoe posted what was the 8th best passing yards season at the time:
 

1	Dan Marino*	1984	23	1-27	MIA	NFL	16	16	362	564	64.18	5084	48	17	8.5	3.01	108.9	13	120	9.01	9.36	8.94	317.8	14	2	0
2	Dan Fouts*	1981	30	3-64	SDG	NFL	16	16	360	609	59.11	4802	33	17	5.4	2.79	90.6	19	134	7.89	7.71	7.27	300.1	10	6	0
3	Dan Marino*	1986	25	1-27	MIA	NFL	16	16	378	623	60.67	4746	44	23	7.1	3.69	92.5	17	119	7.62	7.37	6.99	296.6	8	8	0
4	Dan Fouts*	1980	29	3-64	SDG	NFL	16	16	348	589	59.08	4715	30	24	5.1	4.07	84.7	32	210	8.01	7.19	6.48	294.7	11	5	0
5	Warren Moon*	1991	35		HOU	NFL	16	16	404	655	61.68	4690	23	21	3.5	3.21	81.7	23	174	7.16	6.42	5.95	293.1	11	5	0
6	Warren Moon*	1990	34		HOU	NFL	15	15	362	584	61.99	4689	33	13	5.7	2.23	96.8	36	252	8.03	8.16	7.28	312.6	8	7	0
7	Neil Lomax	1984	25	2-33	STL	NFL	16	16	345	560	61.61	4614	28	16	5	2.86	92.5	49	377	8.24	7.95	6.69	288.4	9	7	0
8	Drew Bledsoe	1994	22	1-1	NWE	NFL	16	16	400	691	57.89	4555	25	27	3.6	3.91	73.6	22	139	6.59	5.56	5.19	284.7	10	6	0

Bledsoe would again post a top 20 season (at the time) in 2002. These were great season stats. Matt Stafford has two top 20 passing yards seasons. Testaverde also had a season up there in that top 20 category. They also put up great season volume stats. They did well in TDs also. Those stats were right up there with what Brett Favre, Warren Moon, and Steve Young were doing. But the other three had efficiency to go along with it. Once again - volume stats are meaningless. And you're right - all three do have lots of career pass attempts. Stafford has the third most passing attempts in the NFL since 2009. And you know what's more fascinating? When Drew Bledsoe got that #8 season, he set a record for most pass attempts in a season. Guess who holds the career record for pass attempts now. I bet you know. Volume stats - without efficiency - are meaningless. 

Fourth paragraph: Yes, I have mentioned Brady, Brees, and Manning a lot, because they tend to follow the point I'm making - that elite quarterbacks will overcome adversity that Stafford is and has been facing. I can use other QBs, and do, but they're subconsciously ignored because people want to make Matt Stafford out to be some king of passing because apparently only the Lions face the problems he does. I've also used Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Russel Wilson, Andy Dalton, and Joe Flacco, but that seems to be totally ignored. People see what they want to see. 

But more to the point, to count win/loss records, you pointed out that quarterbacks throwing 50x per game tend to lose because of poor run games and defenses. So I searched 50-attempt games, and found that Stafford did indeed have a lot, but three other quarterbacks had more. Brady, Brees, and Flacco. Now, I have to bold that last one because I mentioned it before, but this vanity surrounding Stafford seems to have caused the lower-tier QBs in the discussion to be ignored. I don't control who threw for 50 attempts in a game. And given that Stafford ranked 24th, I could have used those win/loss records to note that he had a worse record than Josh McCown, Nick Foles, Brian Hoyer, Matt Schaub, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chad Henne, and Kyle Orton - the relative runts of the litter - in 50-attempt games. But of course, had I done that, credibility would be plenty low given that they didn't face nearly as many chances at losses as Matt Stafford in such games. So I went to the three quarterbacks who had at least as many 50-attempt games at Stafford to get a perfect view of how other QBs fair. Those three happened to include Brees and Brady. I can't do anything about that. However, and as I did note, it also included Joe Flacco, but that was ignored.  And looking game by game at those 50-attempt games, those quarterbacks all had defenses allowing a lot of points and no real run game to speak of - yet they all did better. Even Flacco.

So, I can't help but keep coming to the same conclusion that these are all just excuses to mask Stafford's weaknesses by saying "Well, if he kept two solid at worst receivers, serviceable tight ends, but also added in a top offensive line, run game, and defense, he'd be great." And sure - so would just about any quarterback, right?

Fifth paragraph: 

You're right - over the last two seasons, Stafford does improve considerably. His rankings: 

Completion Percentage - 7th
TD% - 16th
INT% - 12th
QBR - 10th
YPA - 19th
ANY/A - 15th
QB Wins - 13th
QB Losses - 5th worst

So yeah, he's probably gone from fringe top 20 to top 15. And as an FYI, you no longer want to include volume stats, because he does not compare favorably with guys like Eli Manning and Blake Bortles in that time frame if you do. 

[G]

On 8/31/2017 at 7:02 AM, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Ouch.  You actually went Russell Wilson.  You brought the Seahawks into this.  Elite defense, great running game.  I can't believe you'd even pretend that there's a legitimate comparison to be made.  If Stafford had such a team, I can only imagine what the conversation would be.

(Wilson) Sounds EXACTLY like TOM BRADY early in his career. EXACTLY....I'm a Raiders fan but Wilson is on the SAME path as Brady. Of course I think Carr is on peyton Manning's path as he has ZERO D!!! but IMO Wilson is extremely underrated. I'd take him as the face of the franchise over many QB's...

 

[Iamcanadian]

His career record is 51-53. I don't care what people try to prove. He is a mediocre franchise QB and doesn't deserve to be paid at that level. It just goes to show how important a franchise QB is that the Lions had no choice but to pay him, otherwise, another desperate QB team would have gobbled him up.

The Lions have had one of the worst owners in pro football, very mediocre FO's and for years, their scouting department was full of Ford's cronies who were incompetent. It definitely hindered all their player's development and is the main reason players like Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson quite earlier than expected.

This franchise along with the Browns and Jacksonville remain laughing stocks around the NFL.