Matthew Stafford and Lions agree to new deal

[nagahide13]

1 hour ago, patriotsheatyan said:

And you know that Stafford had virtually no playing time his first two years, making almost that entire stat based on the Lions from 2011 onwards where talent hasn't been an issue.

Wrong. 13 games If those games didn't matter, that stat would have been from 2013 on. It's a stat that was created for this argument to make a specific player look worse.

Once again, the lack of perspective is legitimately disheartening.

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

1 hour ago, patriotsheatyan said:

And you know that Stafford had virtually no playing time his first two years, making almost that entire stat based on the Lions from 2011 onwards where talent hasn't been an issue.

Virtually no playing time?  He started 13 games during those two seasons.  Talent hasn't been an issue since 2011?!  Poor protection, absolutely no running game, below average defense... none of that is due to talent?  Comments like this make me wonder how much other fans actually know about the Lions during those years.

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

55 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

I'm sorry. Which receiver other than Calvin Johnson did you want the Lions to have from 2009-2015? I can think of 31 teams who would have been happy to trade. Some might say the Lions had the best receiver in that time, I mean especially since he had the most receiving yards and touchdowns and was second only to Brandon Marshall in receptions in that time. 

From 2009-2013, Brandon Pettigrew was the 10th most prolific receiving tight end. From 2014-2016, Eric Ebron is the 15th (11th over the last two years). Golden Tate is the 10th most prolific receiver over the last 3 years. Nate Burleson and Calvin Johnson combined for more receiving yards as the top two receivers than all but 2 other top two receiver tandems (Jennings/Nelson in Green Bay, Maclin/Jackson in Philadelphia). Seems like Stafford had a better supporting cast situation than a bunch of quarterbacks. Certainly Rivers, Flacco, Alex Smith, etc. would prefer/would have preferred these options. 

Lots of words.

You didn't mention protection or a running game once.  Some would say that those are the two most important elements for success at the QB position.  The Lions have been remarkably bad at both.

I'm a huge Pettigrew supporter, but calling him 'prolific' is farther than even I would go.  If it's based on receptions, which I'm guessing it is, there's an obvious reason why:  short passes stood as our running game for years.  It's one of the reasons why his YPC was so low.

If we're only talking about pass-catchers; fine.  Pass-catchers that routinely led to the Lions being at the top of the chart in dropped passes.  Pass-catchers so inspiring that teams were willing to triple-team Calvin and force Kris Durham to make a play.  Burleson was solid.  Tate and Marvin Jones have been huge.  Ebron?  Flashes, but lots of inconsistency (in both play and durability).  You mentioned FIVE names over EIGHT seasons.  That's it.

So, if we're ignoring the terrible running game and below average protection, you're arguing that five good pass-catchers during an eight year span proves that Stafford has had a legitimate supporting cast.  That argument is lacking.

[Shanedorf]

From pre-snap reads

http://presnapreads.com/2017/08/29/nfl-quarterback-tiers-evaluations-ahead-of-the-2017-season/

Matthew Stafford

Tier: 3

Rank: 17

Write-up:

Matthew Stafford was benched for a poor performance against the Arizona Cardinals back in October 2015. The Lions quarterback threw three interceptions in less than three quarters, forcing Jim Caldwell to turn to Dan Orlovsky. Stafford didn’t lose his starting spot, he was in for the first snap for all 16 games that year. But that was the catalyst for the coordinator change that would soon follow. Jim Bob Cooter took over the Lions offense and set about easing the pressure on his quarterback. Cooter implemented safer passing concepts that concentrated Stafford’s reads in specific areas of the field. He threw outside and short more than over the middle.

Screens became a major part of the offense’s identity. In 2016 Stafford led the league with 76 screens. Only three quarterbacks threw a higher percentage of screens and only one of those quarterbacks gained a higher percentage of his yards on screens. Alex Smith and Jared Goff were the only quarterbacks to gain more of their yards after the catch than Stafford’s 52.43 percent. Cooter didn’t turn Stafford into something he wasn’t or build this very specific offense that highlighted his strengths, he babied him. He tried to limit his impact on games by asking him to do less, it’s why 23.39 percent, the second-highest rate in the league, of Stafford’s throws didn’t cross the line of scrimmage last year.

The problem with asking Stafford to run a more expansive passing game is his commitment to mental errors and erratic ball placement. Even while being celebrated as an MVP candidate because of fourth quarter comebacks last season, Stafford was still playing with the same reckless abandon that has come to define his career.

He finished the 2016 season with a 4.63 interceptable pass rate, a below average number that put him behind 23 other quarterbacks. His biggest issues have always been leading defenders to the ball with his eyes over the middle of the field and throwing the ball too far infield when trying to target receivers outside the numbers. Those problems shone through even in Cooter’s offense, even as he had the fifth-lowest average depth of target and the ninth-lowest rate of passes into the 11-20 yard range.

An ability to perform in unclean pockets and athleticism to extend plays into either flat before making difficult throws allows Stafford to offset some of his negatives. The Lions haven’t had a good offensive line over recent years so Stafford has been forced to find ways to be productive outside of structure. Those difficult conditions tested his poise and toughness. He hasn’t overcome those challenges with the same consistency of those who rank above him but he does make plays that most of the quarterbacks below him are simply incapable of making. Stafford is 29 years old.

He is who he is at this point, someone with a career closer to Jay Cutler’s rather than Ben Roethlisberger’s.

Did you know?

Only 9.42 percent of Matthew Stafford’s passes travelled further than 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, 23 quarterbacks in the league were more aggressive. 28 quarterbacks threw a higher percentage of their passes further than 10 yards downfield.

[Tugboat]

It's so bleak these days.  Teams spend all this time and draft capital frantically scrambling around trying to find a quality starting quarterback they can win with...Then when they finally do find a franchise guy, you now almost immediately have to make them the highest paid player in NFL history.  It's craziness.

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

9 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

From pre-snap reads

http://presnapreads.com/2017/08/29/nfl-quarterback-tiers-evaluations-ahead-of-the-2017-season/

Ha.  The article spends paragraphs essentially criticizing his lack of aggressiveness and reliance on a simplified, short passing game, then admits that his protection isn't good.  Uh... yeah?  Think one goes with the other?

The article fails to mention the invisible running game, which may be the biggest benefit to a quarterback.  Instead of running the ball (tied for the fewest rushing attempts in the league in 2016), the Lions *gasp* threw short passes to RAC players like Tate and Riddick.

Stafford went from being criticized for constantly throwing the ball downfield with success to Calvin Johnson to being criticized for overcoming a lack of protection and a terrible running game by throwing short passes.  Insane.

I guess this is what happens when context is ignored in favor of pure stat-based arguments.

[nagahide13]

Hey Shane, I invite you to read the rest of the rankings in that article and see whether you agree. It's got Newton at #2, Luck at #4 despite his injury (which isn't exactly new), Bradford at #11, Eli #13, Palmer #14... Those are just the ranks that are flat out bad. There are plenty others that I don't agree with but understand.

 

Your evidence is bad.

[DingoLadd]

Team has good QB, QB is in contract year, pay good QB. Seems pretty simple to me.

Matthew Stafford is a lot like Jay Cutler in the sense that he has all the talent but hasn't really done much with it. Sure he's made the playoffs and has pretty stats but ehhh...

I think he'll end up closer to Matt Ryan than cutler in the next 5 seasons though, the Lions just have to build a solid team around him it's all on you Bob Quinn.

[IDOG_det]

Pretty sure Stafford was the highest paid QB when he signed his last deal, or he was at least close to it. He was the 18th highest paid QB before he signed this contract. He dropped all the way to 18th from the top/near the top. He won't be the highest paid QB for long.

[kyle21121]

Almost 6th man NBA money. Nice deal, Staffy.

[Hunter2_1]

On 29/08/2017 at 3:44 AM, MrOaktown_56 said:

Stafford is closer to elite than he is to Flacco.

5 wins against teams with winning records. Ouch.

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

8 hours ago, DingoLadd said:

Team has good QB, QB is in contract year, pay good QB. Seems pretty simple to me.

Matthew Stafford is a lot like Jay Cutler in the sense that he has all the talent but hasn't really done much with it. Sure he's made the playoffs and has pretty stats but ehhh...

Sort of a confusing second paragraph.  He hasn't really done much with his talent, other than take a franchise as bad as the Lions to the playoffs three times and put up great numbers throughout his career.  He's just entering his prime.  Isn't that something?

[y2lamanaki]

13 hours ago, GSUeagles14 said:

do you honestly not see how flawed this is? Remind me, what year was Staffords rookie season?

2009 by my count. 

[Iamcanadian]

13 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Virtually no playing time?  He started 13 games during those two seasons.  Talent hasn't been an issue since 2011?!  Poor protection, absolutely no running game, below average defense... none of that is due to talent?  Comments like this make me wonder how much other fans actually know about the Lions during those years.

Why would anybody care to know about the Lions during those years. They stunk then and continue to be a badly run organization which looks incapable of building a winning franchise.

I know they had to pay him in order to keep him, but a 51-53 overall record hardly seems like he is worth that much money??

[y2lamanaki]

12 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Lots of words.

You didn't mention protection or a running game once.  Some would say that those are the two most important elements for success at the QB position.  The Lions have been remarkably bad at both.

I'm a huge Pettigrew supporter, but calling him 'prolific' is farther than even I would go.  If it's based on receptions, which I'm guessing it is, there's an obvious reason why:  short passes stood as our running game for years.  It's one of the reasons why his YPC was so low.

If we're only talking about pass-catchers; fine.  Pass-catchers that routinely led to the Lions being at the top of the chart in dropped passes.  Pass-catchers so inspiring that teams were willing to triple-team Calvin and force Kris Durham to make a play.  Burleson was solid.  Tate and Marvin Jones have been huge.  Ebron?  Flashes, but lots of inconsistency (in both play and durability).  You mentioned FIVE names over EIGHT seasons.  That's it.

So, if we're ignoring the terrible running game and below average protection, you're arguing that five good pass-catchers during an eight year span proves that Stafford has had a legitimate supporting cast.  That argument is lacking.

I didn't mention protection or running game, no. But Phillip Rivers suffers from the lack of both and has far more success without the excuse. The Patriots have rarely had a running game over the last decade. For example - can you name the starting HB in NE in 2012 without looking? I couldn't. My guess wasn't even on the team. Drew Brees doesn't have a running game and has had some poor offensive lines. And none of them had Calvin Johnson.

For Pettigrew, he was top 10 in both receptions and receiving yards: 

1	Jason Witten	2009	2013	3-69	DAL	NFL	80	80	627	450	4864	10.81	27	60.8	71.8%	7.76
2	Tony Gonzalez	2009	2013	1-13	ATL	NFL	80	80	603	409	4187	10.24	35	52.3	67.8%	6.94
3	Antonio Gates	2009	2013		SDG	NFL	70	69	461	319	4127	12.94	36	59.0	69.2%	8.95
4	Vernon Davis	2009	2013	1-6	SFO	NFL	79	79	461	294	4069	13.84	44	51.5	63.8%	8.83
5	Jimmy Graham	2010	2013	3-95	NOR	NFL	62	37	470	301	3863	12.83	41	62.3	64.0%	8.22
6	Brent Celek	2009	2013	5-162	PHI	NFL	79	75	428	269	3479	12.93	24	44.0	62.9%	8.13
7	Heath Miller	2009	2013	1-30	PIT	NFL	75	75	419	298	3341	11.21	19	44.5	71.1%	7.97
8	Rob Gronkowski	2010	2013	2-42	NWE	NFL	50	44	328	226	3255	14.40	42	65.1	68.9%	9.92
9	Greg Olsen	2009	2013	1-31	TOT	NFL	80	73	482	288	3215	11.16	29	40.2	59.8%	6.67
10	Brandon Pettigrew	2009	2013	1-20	DET	NFL	71	68	456	284	2828	9.96	16	39.8	62.3%	6.20

 

And as for mentioning "FIVE names over EIGHT seasons" - you're right. I did. How much more do you want? I covered the WR 1 position from 2009-2016 (Calvin Johnson 2009-2015, Golden Tate 2016). I covered the WR 2 position from 2010-2016 (Nate Burleson 2010-2013, Golden Tate 2014-2015, and I didn't mention Marvin Jones, but certainly he'd qualify in 2016). I covered the TE position from 2009-2016 (Pettigrew 2009-2013, Ebron 2014-2016). That's two WRs and a TE for all but one of Matt Stafford's seasons. That's a lot better than many quarterbacks get.  Are you saying Stafford needs absolute perfection to be successful?

From 2012-2016, Russell Wilson ranks far ahead of Stafford in completion percentage (12th to 21st), TD% (5th to 27th), INT% (8th to 13th), QBR (4th to 21st), YPA (1st to 25th), and ANY/A (5th to 19th). His offensive lines are routinely atrocious. And Doug Baldwin's a great story, but he and Jermaine Kearse aren't exactly Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. 

And as for dropped passes, all quarterbacks deal with it. The 49ers drop passes all the time. I get how frustrating it is. But the only season in Stafford's time with the team that Detroit was the worst in the NFL in drop percentage was 2013, and the 2nd worst team was the Patriots with Brady, and the 8th worst team was the Broncos with Manning in route to the Super Bowl. The next year the Lions were in the upper half of the NFL (ranked 13th). The year after the Lions ranked 5th and better than 27 other teams. Welcome to the carousel that is dropped passes. In fact, the Patriots ranked worse than the Lions in dropped passes in half of Stafford's seasons with the team. 

Basically, what this boils down to, is that excuses are being made for why Stafford is not successful when other quarterbacks overcome the same sort of adversity. Some with less. But it's just an excuse masking the reality that Stafford is not at the level of quarterbacks he is now being paid higher than. And as I said in my original post, the flip side is it won't matter within the next three years, because most of those quarterbacks will once again be paid higher than him.