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How deep is your "top tier"?


PossibleCabbage

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Every year leading up to the draft we hear "there are only [whatever] first round grades in this draft" despite the fact that there will be 32 (in rare instances 1-2 fewer) picks made in the first round.  Call it whatever you want but there's always a group of guys (generally numbering less than 32) behind which lies the first significant talent/grade drop.  I have heard media people putting the range on this somewhere from "12 to 15".  So what's yours?

In no particular order mine are: Quinnen Williams, Ed Oliver, Nick Bosa, Josh Allen, Rashan Gary, Montez Sweat (pending medical),  Jawaan Taylor, Andre Dillard, Kyler Murray,  Devon White.  So 10 deep, not to say there aren't great players after this (hell, guys are going to get taken in round 4 who turn out to be great players), but after these guys I think we drop a tier. 

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My top tier is 4 deep. You can guess which four they are. (Josh Allen, Nick Bosa, Ed Oliver, and Quinnen Williams but not necessarily in that order.)

Tier two is also first-round-worthy, and it consists of Devin White, Jawaan Taylor, Montez Sweat, Zach Allen, Rashan Gary, Jeffrey Simmons (off-field and injury be damned), Drew Lock, Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Clayton Thorson, Devin Bush, Andre Dillard, DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, and TJ Hockenson. So 15 there. 19 total with 1st-round grades. Some of my grades differ from others', and I see that I have all of yours plus some, but that's just how I have them rated.

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Tier 1

1. Nick Bosa [ EDGE ] Ohio State
2. Quinnen Williams [ DT ] Alabama
3. Ed Oliver [ DT ] Houston
4. Josh Allen [ EDGE ] Kentucky
5. Jeffery Simmons [ DT ] Mississippi State

Remaining 1st Round Grades
6. D.K. Metcalf [ WR ] Mississippi
7. Kyler Murray [ QB ] Oklahoma
8. Devin White [ LB ] LSU
9. T.J. Hockenson [ TE ] Iowa
10. Garrett Bradbury [ OC ] NC State
11. Jawaan Taylor [ OT ] Florida
12. Chris Lindstrom [ OG ] Boston College
13. Dalton Risner [ OT ] Kansas State
14. Devin Bush [ LB ] Michigan
15. Jonah Williams [ OT ] Alabama
16. Montez Sweat [ EDGE ] Mississippi State
17. Brian Burns [ EDGE ] Florida State
18. Jerry Tillery [ DT ] Notre Dame
19. Andre Dillard [ OT ] Washington State
20. Dwayne Haskins [ QB ] Ohio State
21. Hakeem Butler [ WR ] Iowa State
22. Cody Ford [ OT ] Oklahoma
23. Deebo Samuel [ WR ] South Carolina
24. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson [ S ] Florida
 

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Yeah, I think there are two tiers of first round guys.  Elite prospects and then the rest.  I would think just about everyone's elite prospects are the same: for me, it's guys who check every box, i.e. they look great on tape, have quality production, have prototypical size, are healthy, are athletic, etc.  You miss out on one of those things, you're probably not elite, unless it's a special case.  This year, I'd say I have nine elites (Quinnen Williams, Nick Bosa, Montez Sweat, Devin White, TJ Hockensen, Garrett Bradberry, Ed Oliver, Christian Wilkins, Josh Allen).

There are really, really good players after them, but there's a bit of a dropoff.  The next players I have on my big board are Andre Dillard and AJ Brown, and they're borderline, then Rashan Gary, who's a beast, but apparently was injured this last season, which worries me a bit.  I really like some of the other interior guys and, like Ford, McCoy, and Lindstrom.   This is a great OL class, but the whole positional value thing kinda makes that moot.  Bradberry is elite, but I'd still take someone like Gary or Brown over him because guards aren't as valuable.

Then guys like Simmons and Taylor might be elite, but are injured.

Rankings are hard.

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Personally, I've always collapsed the "elite prospects" and the "clear 1st round" guys since maintaining an "elite" tier puts pressure to create one when no prospects of that quality are even in the draft (e.g. 2013) and the difference between "elite" and "sub-elite" is going to show up when you stack the board anyway.

Mostly I just don't want to use an extra color for like 2-3 people.

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3 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

Personally, I've always collapsed the "elite prospects" and the "clear 1st round" guys since maintaining an "elite" tier puts pressure to create one when no prospects of that quality are even in the draft (e.g. 2013) and the difference between "elite" and "sub-elite" is going to show up when you stack the board anyway.

Mostly I just don't want to use an extra color for like 2-3 people.

Right. I don't blame you.

Last year I DID have an elite tier with nine members - Quentin Nelson, QB Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, Derwin James, DaRon Payne, Vita Vea, Bradley Chubb, Roquan Smith, and Tremaine Edmunds.

2017, it was Mahomes, Garrett, Johnathan Allen, Jamal Adams, Marshon Lattimore, OJ Howard, and Malik Hooker.

2016, I didn't have any truly elite prospects.

This year there are four, in my opinion, though Devin White, TJ Hockenson, and Montez Sweat come close. 

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8 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Tier 1

1. Nick Bosa [ EDGE ] Ohio State
2. Quinnen Williams [ DT ] Alabama
3. Ed Oliver [ DT ] Houston
4. Josh Allen [ EDGE ] Kentucky
5. Jeffery Simmons [ DT ] Mississippi State

Remaining 1st Round Grades
6. D.K. Metcalf [ WR ] Mississippi
7. Kyler Murray [ QB ] Oklahoma
8. Devin White [ LB ] LSU
9. T.J. Hockenson [ TE ] Iowa
10. Garrett Bradbury [ OC ] NC State
11. Jawaan Taylor [ OT ] Florida
12. Chris Lindstrom [ OG ] Boston College
13. Dalton Risner [ OT ] Kansas State
14. Devin Bush [ LB ] Michigan
15. Jonah Williams [ OT ] Alabama
16. Montez Sweat [ EDGE ] Mississippi State
17. Brian Burns [ EDGE ] Florida State
18. Jerry Tillery [ DT ] Notre Dame
19. Andre Dillard [ OT ] Washington State
20. Dwayne Haskins [ QB ] Ohio State
21. Hakeem Butler [ WR ] Iowa State
22. Cody Ford [ OT ] Oklahoma
23. Deebo Samuel [ WR ] South Carolina
24. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson [ S ] Florida
 

Is a good comp for caliber-of-player for Bosa Mario Williams?

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18 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

Personally, I've always collapsed the "elite prospects" and the "clear 1st round" guys since maintaining an "elite" tier puts pressure to create one when no prospects of that quality are even in the draft (e.g. 2013) and the difference between "elite" and "sub-elite" is going to show up when you stack the board anyway.

Mostly I just don't want to use an extra color for like 2-3 people.

2013 had elite prospects.  Don't you know that Chance Warmack is the best guard prospect since Mike Munchak?

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