(Name 'Em) 2019 Overrated, Underrated, & Avoid 'Em Prospects

[Mind Character]

Please list your Underrated and Overrated prospects that you've evaluated during the draft process. Then, list your Prospects that you think should be avoided whether that be b/c of disbelief in said players ability, character or durability concerns, etc.

Gentleman (and Ladies) ... It's that time of the year again.

The draftnik community is in full frenzy and we're all making predictions about other human beings abilities on something called the world wide web. The Draft is nigh. Who are your  Underrated, Overrated, and Avoid Prospects??

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Underrated:

1.) Nasir Adderley, CB/FS/SS-Convert Delaware -- Should be considered a top 12 talent. Forceful tackler; competitive fight and urgency is elite; the most versatile defender in the draft; could be a pro-bowler at CB, FS, or SS.

2.) Jerry Tillery, DT Notre Dame -- Should be considered a top 15 talent. Game was unleashed when transitioned from a NT to a 3-tech. Has the 2nd most advanced hand usage (Quinnen WIlliams is 1st), has consistently the best game-changing forceful punch, violent hands, and diverse arsenal of pass rush moves (bull, push-pull aka jerk technique, two hand power swipe, speed swipe, swim, arm over) in the draft.

3.) Chidi Okeke, OT/OG TSU -- The best pure raw tools developmental OL in the draft worthy of a 4th to 5th round selection just to mold into a longterm starter in 2 years.

4.) Marcus Green, WR ULM -- Explosive, game-breaking Slot-WR with toughness and hand strength to be a reliable target on critical downs. Will be a later round gem.

5.) Diontae Johnson, WR Toledo -- One of the most fluid and dynamic hidden athleticism WRs in the draft. Could be a special Slot-WR at the next level. Top 80 player that will likely go much later.

6.) Stanley Morgan Jr., WR Nebraska -- Unmatched competitive fire, unmatched blocking effort, can do it all as a possession and jump ball specialist receiver; runs precise routes with subtleties of a veteran WR. Will be a very good WR2/WR3 and special teams player.

Overrated:

1.) Justin Layne, CB Michigan St. -- He's a 4th round or later prospect imo and not close to being worth the 2nd or 3rd round pick many believe him to be.

There are a few prospects in this class over all others for which glowing impact starter quality evaluations of their play and 1st/2nd grades of them make absolutely no sense at all for me was. Justin Layne and Greedy Williams were two of those prospects for me. I forced myself to watch 5 other games to see if more games would add texture and nuanced understanding to the assessment of their skills in terms of its successful projection at the next level.

I don't get the love at all w/ Justin Layne as his testing athleticism doesn't translate to the football movement skill required for cornerback success b/c he's so consistently off balance, lacks the foot quickness/speed, lacks hip flexibility, and uncoordinated in press coverage transition movements from backpedal to plant drive foot to directional drive step. He looses his footing so many times or lags in his step response to the movement of the WR due to his knee and hip stiffness allowing WRs with horizontal quickness movement off the line to immediately beat him badly in unrecoverable ways. Struggling in press coverage takes away the value of his length. Transitioning to a pure zone CB is a difficult projection as he lacks awareness and vision.

I have so many CB rated above him such as .... 1.) Julian Love, 2.) Lonnie Johnson Jr., 3.) Amani Oruwariye, 4.) Byron Murphy, 5.) Deandre Baker, 6.) Trayvon Mullen, 7.) Rock Ya-Sin, 8.) Jamel Dean, 9.) Sean Bunting, 10.) Nik Needham, 11.) Joejuan Williams, 12.) Chris Westry and more

2.) Parris Campbell, WR Ohio State  -- An explosive, fast, poor catcher and limited route runner that is really a 3rd to early 4th round prospect being discussed at the end of round 1 or early 2 . If it's not a gadget play utilizing him like a HB or quick out or underneath route he can't produce as he lacks catch and route focus. How much value does poor catch ability Tavon Austin have?? Depends. In the right offense, Campbell could be a game breaker on gadget plays. In others, it's going to be hard to manufacture the requisite touches for him as he's not a reliable pass catching target or slot WR that can consistently go get it.

3.) Greedy Williams, CB LSU -- He's a mid 3rd round to 4th round talent being talked about as if he's a sure-fire top 20 guy. Not urgent or quick in short area enough to impact WRs at the line or in intermediate routes. Lacks ball and route awareness. Won't tackle. Smooth but slow play speed.

4.) Montez Sweat, DE Miss. St.  -- Solid player. He's not worth a 1st or high 2nd round pick depending on who's still on the board. A nice developmental prospect that has mid to late 2nd value.Testing athleticism doesn't translate to specific dynamic football movement on the field required for DE consistent success. Has no pass rush moves or pass rush plan except for a bull rush and occasional long arm. Senior bowl dominance in 1v1's via bull rush was in optimal environment where OL set isn't play call focused. A lot of production from QBs holding onto the ball or late escape sacks; can't win quick; can't bend the edge and speed skate; doesn't have inside counter movers; stiff mover.       

5.) N'Keal Harry, WR Arizona St -- Is actually a 3rd or 4th round player due to limitations. Can't get off press or beat patient CBs at all. Not quick enough or loose enough athlete to win in the slot. Is a underneath run after catch specialist in a quick hitting passing game, but can't separate in a quick passing game. Best as a big slot that runs come backs or wins contested crossing routes due to size. Would be best bulking up and becoming a TE.

6.) Deionte Thompson, S Alabama -- He's a 4th round or later prospect imo being spoken about as a 2nd round guy. Slow mental trigger and diagnoser of route development. Limited ability to rangeplaymake. Lacks urgency and fluid hips. Film was unimpressive all over.

7.) Rashan Gary, DE Michigan -- Late 1st or top of 2nd type of player being talked about as a top 10 guy. Really nice prospect tools wise, lacking the play personality to set the edge with force or collapse the pocket from the edge via speed to power. Great piece of clay to work with that is going to go way earlier than he should in front of ready, quality contributing players.

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Players to Avoid:

1,) Jaylon Ferguson, DE Louisiana Tech -- College production; NFL JAG.

2.) Germaine Pratt, LB N.C. State -- He won't ever be better than average and will always be upgradable every year. Limited impact player. Not worth using a 2nd or 3rd on that type of player just to fill a need when there will be longterm starters and quality starters/contributors available in the 2nd and 3rd. After Devin White and Devin Bush are off the board, it would be better to take a late round pick on a guy like Ty Summers, TCU than to spend early draft capital on a guy like Pratt or Mack Wilson.

3.) Justin Layne, CB Michigan St. -- See Above

4.) Isaiah Johnson, CB Houston -- Like Layne, has going forward athleticism not going/moving backward and then quick stop start multidirectional lateral dynamic movement athleticissm.

5.) Irv Smith Jr., TE Alabama -- I really like Irv as a prospect, but as TE his unique limitations add nothing to our TE unit beyond what Njoku and Harris provide. He's more of an out the backfield H-Back than an on the line or split out pass catching TE. Good blocker not better than Harris.

6.) Trysten Hill: Ultra talent that Could be a locker room problem or bad fit with team culture. Definitely pass on in the 2nd, but I go back and forth on if I'd risk a 3rd on him. Depends on whose on the board.

[Mind Character]

Hahaha...

[Heinz D.]

Is this...only focused on the Browns?  Because there are bits that suggest that.

I mean...zipping back and forth between a general draft kinda thing, and a specific kinda thing...well, that's NOT going to lead to good discussion. 

I'll sort of start wading through this. No guarantees I finish. This is a complete mess of an OP.

Adderly and Tillery are sort of underrated. Not many clamoring for them to be in the top fifteen, though. Sorry. 

Rashan Gary is most definitely overrated. (Imagine Mr. Rodgers here)..."Can you all say Vernon Gholston? Sure...I thought you could." 

But--my lord...

Paris Campell. Greedy Williams, Montez Sweat? I mean--where would you slot them? You don't even say. 

Then, the "please stay away" is just weird. No way around it. 

Clarity is always better, dude. Always. 

[Mind Character]

58 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Is this...only focused on the Browns?  Because there are bits that suggest that.

I mean...zipping back and forth between a general draft kinda thing, and a specific kinda thing...well, that's NOT going to lead to good discussion. 

I'll sort of start wading through this. No guarantees I finish. This is a complete mess of an OP.

Adderly and Tillery are sort of underrated. Not many clamoring for them to be in the top fifteen, though. Sorry. 

Rashan Gary is most definitely overrated. (Imagine Mr. Rodgers here)..."Can you all say Vernon Gholston? Sure...I thought you could." 

But--my lord...

Paris Campell. Greedy Williams, Montez Sweat? I mean--where would you slot them? You don't even say. 

Then, the "please stay away" is just weird. No way around it. 

Clarity is always better, dude. Always. 

I think Gary is better than Gholston but get your point ... Mr. Rodgers sweater is hanging up there in the indoor train station in the sky for all time.

So, do you have any players of your own that you believe are Overrated, Underrated, or think teams should avoid for whatever reasons? Or no.. you love every guy like Gruden in the broadcast booth?

I did talk about where I'd slot Montez Sweat (in the OP I said mid to late 2nd not top 10 aka he's overrated); Greedy Williams (I said mid 3rd to early 4th not top 20 as he's often discussed therefore he's overrated imo); Parris Campbell (In the OP I said early 3rd to early 4th not late 1st or early 2nd as he's discussed in the draftnik world) );

No but seriously I hear some of your other points in a sense...  I thought it would be readily apparent that I was wondering about peoples' overrated, underrated, players to avoid in the general sense not team-centric per se but that "I want my team to stay away from this player" as in " I think think our team and others should avoid this player for blah blah blah reasons."

I wouldn't post a question intended for Browns fans only in the general NFL Draft forum and I thus framed the main OP question and title in the general sense as in "Please list your Underrated Prospects; your Overrated prospects you've evaluated during the draft process..." etc not mentioning anything about specific this or that...

I did change "players you want your team to stay away from" to "players to avoid" since that was confusing to read and took out the paranthesed extra info about the Browns on the "players to avoid" list at the end.

 

[BoltsFan937]

To the OP...Layne and Campbell are both position converts (Layne from WR and Campbell from RB) so they're both gonna have some work to do and aren't finished products.  You're drafting them on potential and upside and off of their tools to work with.  

I agree with you on Gary and Ferguson and can see your argument on Sweat (I'm not that crazy about him either)

I like Adderley a lot but not top 12 a lot.  Anything after say pick 20 and I could get on board.  Tillery, I don't think its the talent that's the question its the inconsistency from game to game and his character that are dropping him (if true). 

For me underrated players (players I think will go higher than currently projected) - Hakeem Butler, Elgton Jenkins, Erik McCoy, Chris Lindstrom, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Will Grier

  

[Mind Character]

59 minutes ago, BoltsFan937 said:

To the OP...Layne and Campbell are both position converts (Layne from WR and Campbell from RB) so they're both gonna have some work to do and aren't finished products.  You're drafting them on potential and upside and off of their tools to work with.  

I agree with you on Gary and Ferguson and can see your argument on Sweat (I'm not that crazy about him either)

I like Adderley a lot but not top 12 a lot.  Anything after say pick 20 and I could get on board.  Tillery, I don't think its the talent that's the question its the inconsistency from game to game and his character that are dropping him (if true). 

For me underrated players (players I think will go higher than currently projected) - Hakeem Butler, Elgton Jenkins, Erik McCoy, Chris Lindstrom, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Will Grier

  

Indeed. I agree; Layne and Campbell are position converts and it will take time.

A lot of great picks on your underrated players list.

Elgton Jenkins and Chris Lindstrom are going to solve a lot of problems for an OLine.

Hakeem Butler is another seriously underrated player that I wonder if he goes mid-1st suggesting that personnel execs were high on him all along.

CGJ is a really solid player.

Will Grier is a hard one for me in terms of if he can be a franchise guy.

What are your thoughts on Grier in terms of 1.) Do you think his career could be better than an Andy Dalton type "franchise QB," and 2.) Do you think it's close between Grier and Lock or Haskins?

I've done some digging on TIllery and I think his consistency throughout this past year as a 3-tech was substantially improved and the "character" concerns stemmed from anger issues that have been worked on to positive effect as he became a leader a ND this year. I expected to see just a guy or a lazy player but by game 7 I saw so much consistency in technique, power, violent/heay hands, and even effort in the 4th quarter. His 2018 tape was so good to me and makes him underrated imho.

[HoboRocket]

Underrated: Darnell Savage, S, UMD. Dude could be a freaking elite cornerback and is built decently. I'd love to see him gain a couple pounds, and I really think he's special. I like his instincts, though he's not always correct. He's still learning the position and is a killer.

Overrated: Rashan Gary is easy. I'll say Jawaan Taylor. Dude has the potential to be a road grader and decent feet to go with a strong work ethic, but basically everything else is a projection. I like him as a developmental guy a la Julie'n Davenport, and he has serious upside, but I see too many issues for him to be taken top-7 like I'm seeing. He could be the best OT in this class, and I have him as one of the top three, but he's more of a pick in the 20s for me. He had weight issues in the past and will have to work super hard to keep it off based off of genetics. There's just too much risk. Like I said, the tools are there, but he's still overrated.

Stay Away: Rashan Gary. He's just too expensive to bust and just be an athletic run-stopper. I think his likely ceiling is Michael Brockers without as high of character.

[lark25]

Underrated: Anthony nelson great length, agility, explosion and production. Played a disciplined scheme probably a top 40-50 guy

overrated: LJ Collier. Terrible agility below average speed and avg at best explosion no real dominant traits but considered a borderline day 1 guy is insane.

avoid: Kyler Murray. I just wouldn’t take the risk for where he’s projected.

 

[BoltsFan937]

1 hour ago, Mind Character said:

 

What are your thoughts on Grier in terms of 1.) Do you think his career could be better than an Andy Dalton type "franchise QB," and 2.) Do you think it's close between Grier and Lock or Haskins?

I've done some digging on TIllery and I think his consistency throughout this past year as a 3-tech was substantially improved and the "character" concerns stemmed from anger issues that have been worked on to positive effect as he became a leader a ND this year. I expected to see just a guy or a lazy player but by game 7 I saw so much consistency in technique, power, violent/heay hands, and even effort in the 4th quarter. His 2018 tape was so good to me and makes him underrated imho.

I might be higher on Grier than most, I'm pretty convinced he's gonna go at the end of round 1.  I could see Grier in that Dalton, Carr, Garroppolo tier of QBs.  I don't see him in the elite tier though.  Dalton is brutal (I'm not a fan) but, yeah that might be a fair comp.  I have him behind Lock and Haskins, I think Lock has more arm talent which makes his ceiling higher and Haskins is younger so I'd be willing to gamble on his growth and potential.  

Tillery - man, I'm with you on the talent. I like what I see on tape with that guy.  I read on another site though that scouts question his maturity, there's questions if he can pass drug testing, and if he's a coachable player.  Now, that could all be a bunch of BS spread around to drop his stock, but its out there.  But the talent is there, I certainly won't argue with you on that.  

[bomont]

2 hours ago, Mind Character said:

Hakeem Butler is another seriously underrated player

No he isn't.  Makes highlight reel catches one play, drops an easy pass the next. No thank you. 

[Mind Character]

1 hour ago, bomont said:

No he isn't.  Makes highlight reel catches one play, drops an easy pass the next. No thank you. 

Hakeem Butler is polarizing for sure.

Important questions: What were the nature of his drops? Is he a natural hands catcher of the ball? What of his hand positioning and hand strength?

I and many others have asked that question and found the answer to be that the vast majority were concentration drops w/ many be of the "turning up the field before seeing the ball in variety."

Look ... his drops cannot be ignored nor can they be undervalued, but they do not represent the entirety of WR play evaluation.

What of some other dimensions of wide receiving skill ... route running against man versus zone, the ability to beat press, body-control, route awareness, combat catching ability, ability to separate with burst/quickness/or route savvy, deep ball tracking ability,does the WR attack the ball?, does he make big catches on big catches in big moments?, etc...

Along such dimensions of WR play, Hakeem Butler is at the top or near the top of this WR class. Don't be mistaken though, I'm not saying he's an elite natural catcher of the ball just that he's solid to good with work to do.

There are WRs that drop the ball b/c they can't catch, it's like they fight the ball and there are WRs that have too many concentration and poor technique drops that can catch the ball naturally.

Corey Davis coming out of WMU had a lot of drops (16 drops.over 3 years; Butler was targeted a lot less but had 11), but Davis still went top 5 and has been an impact player for the Titans despite a underpowered passing attack.

Here's Greg Cosell's evaluation of Butler with the drops as a negative but there is just so much more.

He's got elite body control, hip fluidity, and is a loose athlete for such a big WR:

 

[Mind Character]

4 hours ago, HoboRocket said:

Underrated: Darnell Savage, S, UMD. Dude could be a freaking elite cornerback and is built decently. I'd love to see him gain a couple pounds, and I really think he's special. I like his instincts, though he's not always correct. He's still learning the position and is a killer.

Overrated: Rashan Gary is easy. I'll say Jawaan Taylor. Dude has the potential to be a road grader and decent feet to go with a strong work ethic, but basically everything else is a projection. I like him as a developmental guy a la Julie'n Davenport, and he has serious upside, but I see too many issues for him to be taken top-7 like I'm seeing. He could be the best OT in this class, and I have him as one of the top three, but he's more of a pick in the 20s for me. He had weight issues in the past and will have to work super hard to keep it off based off of genetics. There's just too much risk. Like I said, the tools are there, but he's still overrated.

Stay Away: Rashan Gary. He's just too expensive to bust and just be an athletic run-stopper. I think his likely ceiling is Michael Brockers without as high of character.

Savage for sure. His big explosive plays make up for the big misses, and I think it'll be the same way in the pros as his love for the game and competitive fire will hopefully see him avoid the big whiffs or misses more so than he did in college. A lot of rare ability for coaches to work off of.

I'm right there with you on Jawaan Taylor as I think he has a weak anchor and often once DTs get into him instead of anchoring or going head up staying square with the DTs he opens the gate with his hip giving DEs/DTs shorter distance, more direct, and easy paths to the QB pressure or pocket disruption. It's a cardinal sin in OLine play to open one's shoulders and hips toward the sideline instead of staying square. It's more than a technique thing with him (although I he'll get better with pro coaches) it has more to do with core strength, hip flexibility, and willingness to fight.

He's a nice prospect in the late teens or 20s, but not the consensus top 8 player many say he is, especially with the likely players to be on the board at that pick.

[Mind Character]

3 hours ago, lark25 said:

Underrated: Anthony nelson great length, agility, explosion and production. Played a disciplined scheme probably a top 40-50 guy

overrated: LJ Collier. Terrible agility below average speed and avg at best explosion no real dominant traits but considered a borderline day 1 guy is insane.

avoid: Kyler Murray. I just wouldn’t take the risk for where he’s projected.

 

Interesting.

I haven't watched much of Nelson as the Browns don't play a 34, but I've heard great things. I wonder if he'll be the first 5-tech off the board or if teams would rather take Zach Allen and convert him to 34 DE.

With Murray, where do you see the risk mostly? Is it his size in terms of weight and body composition leading to injury and durability issues? His height? His general play ability? Or instead that the risk is that he'll go back to baseball??

Height doesn't worry me nor does play ability with Murray, but I'm concerned about his body composition and size. He weighed similar to Russell Wilson but their bodies at the same weight were completely different as Murray was at his upper limit to get to that weight and Wilson had to strain to lose 12 pounds to get to that weight.

With Collier, I think all his limitations are minimized by moving him inside to 3-tech and allowing him to win with quickness of hands and technique. His weaknesses on the outside as DE are apparent, but imo he could be a strong situational interior pass rusher where his lack of elite speed and quickness on the outside is still better than most DTs on the inside.

 

[Mind Character]

3 hours ago, BoltsFan937 said:

I might be higher on Grier than most, I'm pretty convinced he's gonna go at the end of round 1.  I could see Grier in that Dalton, Carr, Garroppolo tier of QBs.  I don't see him in the elite tier though.  Dalton is brutal (I'm not a fan) but, yeah that might be a fair comp.  I have him behind Lock and Haskins, I think Lock has more arm talent which makes his ceiling higher and Haskins is younger so I'd be willing to gamble on his growth and potential.  

Tillery - man, I'm with you on the talent. I like what I see on tape with that guy.  I read on another site though that scouts question his maturity, there's questions if he can pass drug testing, and if he's a coachable player.  Now, that could all be a bunch of BS spread around to drop his stock, but its out there.  But the talent is there, I certainly won't argue with you on that.  

Yeah, I didn't really get the chance to study the QBs this year beyond just general game watching during the season, but it's been interesting hear opinions on them and how different one is from the other.

Beyond the Cardinals It's crazy b/c I have no clue where any of the QBs are going b/c they are such hard projections; I don't know if I can recall another year such as this one where going into the draft I think the QBs all could fall to late round one with teams like Washington, the Giants, or the Broncos deciding to opt to select non-QBs to build their rosters.

I hadn't heard the drug concerns or coachable concerns with Tillery. Will be interesting to see where he gets drafted come draft day.

[goldfishwars]

1 hour ago, Mind Character said:

Hakeem Butler is polarizing for sure.

Important questions: What were the nature of his drops? Is he a natural hands catcher of the ball? What of his hand positioning and hand strength?

I and many others have asked that question and found the answer to be that the vast majority were concentration drops w/ many be of the "turning up the field before seeing the ball in variety."

Look ... his drops cannot be ignored nor can they be undervalued, but they do not represent the entirety of WR play evaluation.

What of some other dimensions of wide receiving skill ... route running against man versus zone, the ability to beat press, body-control, route awareness, combat catching ability, ability to separate with burst/quickness/or route savvy, deep ball tracking ability,does the WR attack the ball?, does he make big catches on big catches in big moments?, etc...

Along such dimensions of WR play, Hakeem Butler is at the top or near the top of this WR class. Don't be mistaken though, I'm not saying he's an elite natural catcher of the ball just that he's solid to good with work to do.

There are WRs that drop the ball b/c they can't catch, it's like they fight the ball and there are WRs that have too many concentration and poor technique drops that can catch the ball naturally.

Corey Davis coming out of WMU had a lot of drops (16 drops.over 3 years; Butler was targeted a lot less but had 11), but Davis still went top 5 and has been an impact player for the Titans despite a underpowered passing attack.

Here's Greg Cosell's evaluation of Butler with the drops as a negative but there is just so much more.

He's got elite body control, hip fluidity, and is a loose athlete for such a big WR:

 

Love this, I'm a big Hakeem Butler guy - top ten player for me.