CWood21 Posted March 31, 2020 Author Share Posted March 31, 2020 Thanks Waldo...err I mean @rcon14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted March 31, 2020 Author Share Posted March 31, 2020 5 hours ago, squire12 said: Must have missed that those were the only 4 FA DL this season. So...you're in the boat that anything would be better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted March 31, 2020 Author Share Posted March 31, 2020 5 hours ago, Skippy said: I'm very high on Chase Claypool, not sure why he isn't higher on most rankings. Because nobody believed his numbers from the Combine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted March 31, 2020 Author Share Posted March 31, 2020 4 hours ago, packfanfb said: I'm still WR in Round 1 because I think it adds the most significant, immediate impact to our team. I'm simply not passing on guys like Jefferson, Mims or Reagor when I think about what any of them could instantly add to this team for 2020. You could probably sell me on CB as the second choice. I won't be crushed if we take a guy like Blacklock on the DL but I think the value is much better at WR and even CB, where we currently have a hole in the slot without Tramon. OT I'm starting to look at in rounds 2 and 3. Still plenty of guys there. We don't need our OT pick to start day 1. We just signed Wagner for that. Now all of this being said, this is what "I" would do. I understand that the Packers are probably going to go OT first round, especially if a guy like Josh Jones is there. Because it's not just about who is the highest player graded on your board. You're not going to take a QB even if he's slightly higher than the next guy on your board. You have to look at all the variables. How deep are the other positions you're looking at? How deep is your biggest need? Would I rather walk away with Blacklock/Aiyuk or Shenault/Madubuike? WR is insanely deep you're still going to get quality ones in the second round. Are you still confident you can walk away with a potential starting OT in R2 or R3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, CWood21 said: So...you're in the boat that anything would be better? not anymore than you are under the illusion that there were only 4 FA DL in the 2020 group. Nice of you to not include some of the following Gerald McCoy Rodney Gunter Vernon Butler Quinton Jefferson Maliek Collins Shelby Harris Derek Wolfe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 8 minutes ago, CWood21 said: Because it's not just about who is the highest player graded on your board. You're not going to take a QB even if he's slightly higher than the next guy on your board. You have to look at all the variables. How deep are the other positions you're looking at? How deep is your biggest need? Would I rather walk away with Blacklock/Aiyuk or Shenault/Madubuike? WR is insanely deep you're still going to get quality ones in the second round. Are you still confident you can walk away with a potential starting OT in R2 or R3? I think this assumption is a bit overstated because we're pick 62. That's a lot of bodies if you skip WR at 30. Now you can always move up but ideally without giving up extra picks, I'm not sure you're going to get an Aiyuk/Pittman or even DPJ at 62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted March 31, 2020 Author Share Posted March 31, 2020 Just now, packfanfb said: I think this assumption is a bit overstated because we're pick 62. That's a lot of bodies if you skip WR at 30. Now you can always move up but ideally without giving up extra picks, I'm not sure you're going to get an Aiyuk/Pittman or even DPJ at 62. And there's other positions that will be drafted between 30 and 62 as well. It's not like every team between those two picks are suddenly going to draft a WR. Over the last 5 years, we've seen an average of 7.6 WRs taken in the first 64 picks. That's a high of 9 WRs taken in the first 64 picks. Just looking TDN's top 9 WRs, that means you'd miss on CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Reagor, Laviska Shenault Jr., KJ Hamler, Denzel Mims, and Brandon Aiyuk. Assuming those WRs came off the board, you'd be looking at a WR board of Tee Higgins, DPJ, Michael Pittman, Chase Claypool, etc. And that's not taking into account that the value to move up in the second round is exponentially cheaper than that of the first round, so even if the WR board started to dry up you could move up to secure a WR for comparatively pretty cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 2 hours ago, packfanfb said: This would have been a great year for Tunsil to be drafted so ESPN could cut live to him blowing a cloud of weed smoke through his gas mask as his name is called. *ESPN goes to the live feed of Tunsil* "Oh, sorry, this mask is for protection!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, CWood21 said: And there's other positions that will be drafted between 30 and 62 as well. It's not like every team between those two picks are suddenly going to draft a WR. Over the last 5 years, we've seen an average of 7.6 WRs taken in the first 64 picks. That's a high of 9 WRs taken in the first 64 picks. Just looking TDN's top 9 WRs, that means you'd miss on CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Reagor, Laviska Shenault Jr., KJ Hamler, Denzel Mims, and Brandon Aiyuk. Assuming those WRs came off the board, you'd be looking at a WR board of Tee Higgins, DPJ, Michael Pittman, Chase Claypool, etc. And that's not taking into account that the value to move up in the second round is exponentially cheaper than that of the first round, so even if the WR board started to dry up you could move up to secure a WR for comparatively pretty cheap. Sound points. I'm still running to the podium for Jefferson, Mims or Reagor at 30 regardless of who's on the board at OT or DL at 30. Now, if it's Shenault, Hamler (who we won't draft anyways) and Aiyuk on the board, I'm probably going another direction at 30 and waiting on WR. Edited March 31, 2020 by packfanfb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted March 31, 2020 Author Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, squire12 said: not anymore than you are under the illusion that there were only 4 FA DL in the 2020 group. Nice of you to not include some of the following Gerald McCoy Rodney Gunter Vernon Butler Quinton Jefferson Maliek Collins Shelby Harris Derek Wolfe I mean, I could link you to the entire list of FA DL signings if you'd like. But it's a trickle down effect. When the premium players get paid, the "lesser" players get paid. Gunter signed a similar contract to Dean Lowry, but is he a clear upgrade over Dean Lowry? If you want to go in the boat of anyone is better than Dean Lowry, sure. It makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 2 hours ago, CWood21 said: Thanks Waldo...err I mean @rcon14 Real s/o to Kent Lee Platte and Justis Mosqueda who did the majority of the real grunt work on it. I merely had to do some filtering and double-checks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 2 hours ago, packfanfb said: I think this assumption is a bit overstated because we're pick 62. That's a lot of bodies if you skip WR at 30. Now you can always move up but ideally without giving up extra picks, I'm not sure you're going to get an Aiyuk/Pittman or even DPJ at 62. AiYUK...DPJ at 62 for me if that's the case. He checks all the boxes and underachieved at Michigan due to shoddy QB play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 2 hours ago, CWood21 said: I mean, I could link you to the entire list of FA DL signings if you'd like. But it's a trickle down effect. When the premium players get paid, the "lesser" players get paid. Gunter signed a similar contract to Dean Lowry, but is he a clear upgrade over Dean Lowry? If you want to go in the boat of anyone is better than Dean Lowry, sure. It makes sense. None of those players signed contracts that were out of market value. Your answer since before I can remember always has been "well who could we have signed??" then you get a list of who we could have signed, and you come up with some excuse. We should've signed a vet DL. Harrison and Jernigan give me some hope. The only answer is Gute thinks Lowry, Lancaster, Adams and Keke can improve. He totally blew that last year with MVS, Allison, Moore and EQ. If the DL turns out to be the same, we aren't winning anything substantial this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 43 minutes ago, rcon14 said: Real s/o to Kent Lee Platte and Justis Mosqueda who did the majority of the real grunt work on it. I merely had to do some filtering and double-checks. the agility numbers were down drastically this year due to how late at night they were run (think it was like .17 average across all positions) think you're going to need to open up the accepted data set or the Packers are dumb and think this year is comparing apples to apples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Packerraymond said: the agility numbers were down drastically this year due to how late at night they were run (think it was like .17 average across all positions) think you're going to need to open up the accepted data set or the Packers are dumb and think this year is comparing apples to apples. Yeah, there's a major issue with the sample this year. Over the next month I'm going to make some alterations to the data to see if it starts to make more sense. Do you have a source on the .17 number? EDIT: So I did some digging on this using the RAS database. Comparing the weighted averages of 3-cone times this year to all past years combined, and the difference in 3-cone averages is essentially non-existent (.00728 seconds). Breakdown by position: QB: .04 seconds slower RB: .02 faster WR: .08 slower TE: .04 faster OL: .00 DL: .02 slower LB: .12 faster (I think this has a lot to do with LBs getting smaller and smaller) DB: .06 faster The samples in any one draft class are of course rather small, especially compared to years and years of testing, but it appears that of the people that DID run, there wasn't too much of an effect. Edited March 31, 2020 by rcon14 Updated Numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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