NFCN Rivals - Packers Thread

[soulman]

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I don't think people are arguIng so much as needling each other.  

IMO Gary is a high upside traits pick. I felt that way before draft and said so, nothing in preseason has changed my mind.   I would not have taken him early based off that.  I felt he was late first, early second round value.  I probably would have went in another direction all together. 

Those guys can go either way and are high risk/high reward.  Too much risk for me.

Sounds more like the picks we used to make.

Hallelujah......those day are over.

[CWood21]

16 hours ago, soulman said:

Well now it would appear that you did sir.  In fact you're quite emphatic about it in your post above even stating his college stats which are now useless since his pro stats can easily be subbed for those.  Mitch is very mobile.

If your point is that Lamar Jackson runs more by design that I can agree with but that's not what you posted and what I responded to.  You questioned Mitch's mobility and I showed by his stats that you are incorrect about it.

You may have thought your argument was clear but it was not and I'm not the only one who corrected you about Mitch's mobility.  In fact had Mitch rushed as often as Jackson based on his ypc he'd have had 911 yard rushing.

I'm glad he didn't though 'cause I much prefer Mitch to a version 2.0 of Bobby Douglass.

No.  I did not.  I said the Packers wouldn't be facing the Joe Webb and Lamar Jackson's of the world.  That's a fact.  Unless you truly believe that Mitch Trubisky is the same kind of runner of those two, that's a true statement.  And if you think he's the same kind of threat with the ball in his hands as those two, then that's where we're going to have to agree to disagree.  And your extrapolation also fails because you don't take into account the fact that Tru had nearly doubled the amount of snaps.  The fact is that Lamar Jackson running the ball is a staple of the Ravens' offense.  It's a part of the Bears' offense for Tru, but not a main part of the offense.  Either way, this whole discussion is getting further and further from what the original topic was which was that the Packers weren't going to be facing the Lamar Jackson and Joe Webb's of the world.

[CWood21]

16 hours ago, soulman said:

That's much better but I can promise you Bullard wasn't playing at 285lbs as a rookie.  He's said himself he added over 20lbs to now play at 297lbs so coming in he and Gary were about the same weight.  And you'll get no argument from me that Gary is far more of athletic freak for a big man than Bullard which is why he went early in round one and Bullard fell all the way to round three.

But it's the position fit I focused on. Much like Aaron Donald IMHO Bullard should be a 280lb 3 tech DT in a 4-3.  But currently he's not and the extra weight has robbed him of some of his explosion and ability to penetrate as well as he did at Florida.  I don't believe he'll be back with the Bears in 2020 and whomever he signs with may move him to DT where he may be more effective. Who knows?

Gary may have the athleticism to play OLB at 277lbs.  It's possible but not assured.  If he succeeds I see a guy somewhat like Pernell McPhee who gets by mostly on strength and quickness and who can disrupt but coming out of college I don't yet see a kid whose gonna make a major impact strictly as an Edge Rusher.  He didn't show that kind of talent at Michigan either but he plays the run well.

So.....my point was both Bullard and Gary are somewhat poorly suited for the roles they were drafted to play.  Bullard was only able to overcome that by adding significant weight which slowed him down.  He's not a complete bust but in year four he's playing with the backups and may not make the 53 man roster at all.  Bullard has never achieved what initially some thought he could.

If you want to look at the athletic testing, he tested more favorably to Bradley Chubb or Jadeveon Clowney than he did Jonathan Bullard.  LIS, Bullard was a DT/DE tweener coming out of college.  Rashan Gary was an EDGE.  There's a DRASTIC difference between the two, so I'm not really sure why you're trying to make this square peg fit in a round hole.  You don't see guys his size with that kind of athleticism.  You're getting even further away from comps when you throw out McPhee.  McPhee was a mediocre athlete by just about every metric.  He's a guy who was going to win as a power pig.  There's no twitch and there's no explosion.  In terms of comparisons, they're about damn near opposites.  Rashan Gary is an EDGE who probably can get kicked to the 5T in obvious passing situations.

16 hours ago, soulman said:

Will that also happen to Gary?  I have no idea I just put it out there as to what I saw as some similarities to Bullard.  I've got no skin in the game at all as to whether he becomes and All Pro, a bust, or something in between.  It's only my take and admittedly my take is not likely to be the same as yours.  If Gary does succeed on the edge it will be because he works hard to learn how to be good.

As for Lawson and Floyd there again we have two guys playing different positions in college.  Floyd was not strictly an OLB/Edge Rusher whereas Lawson was.  Many of us, me included, preferred Lawson.  At the 230lbs or so he played at Georgia Floyd was your classic SEC tweener and many of them fail to make an impact in the NFL.  He gained some weight for the Combine then quickly lost it again.

So when he came in as a rookie he was still under 240lbs and lacked NFL strength but like Gary he had enough freakish athleticism to succeed on occasion as an Edge Rusher.  Injuries have slowed his progress but Vic Fangio was also smart enough to begin using him more as he was used at Georgia dropping him in coverage at times and playing contain against mobile QBs.

Floyd is now over 250lbs and has added muscle and strength.  He's become a versatile OLB but not one Pace is gonna pay top dollar to unless he can become a more impactful pass rusher.  Pace exercised his 5th year option but I don't know if he'll ever see that money on a one year deal.  We'll extend him for less but only if he can kick his pass rush up a notch so we'll see how that goes.

But we might also compare Floyd to Gary in that both players did not come in as highly rated pass rushers and needed or will need to be coached up to become one.  That's all I've got.

Again, there's no comparison between the two.  One was an EDGE in college and is an EDGE in the NFL, the other was a DE or DT (I honestly can't remember) in college and a DE/DT tweener in the NFL.  As for Floyd, if production was a major factor over tools, we would have seen Lawson go before him.  But they didn't.  Because Lawson wasn't twitchy enough.  His floor was relatively high, but his ceiling was fairly low as well.  He was an average athlete.  That's not something that's at a premium in the NFL.  Getting a guy who is a career 6/8 sacks per year isn't going top 10.  You don't draft someone in the top 10 to be an average pass rusher.  You're looking at guys with upside.  Floyd had upside, Lawson didn't.

[St Vince]

22 hours ago, Leader said:

Running QBs have a far shorter NFL shelf life than their position allows. Watsons had (what?) two knee surgeries already (?) and Newton's gonna be the first Bionic NFL QB if he doesnt stop running with the ball. His bodies breaking down already. If Trubisky was smart, he'd learn how NOT to scramble / run with the ball.

For that reason alone i want Trips to keep running.

Edited August 21, 2019 by St Vince

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I don't think people are arguIng so much as needling each other.  

IMO Gary is a high upside traits pick. I felt that way before draft and said so, nothing in preseason has changed my mind.   I would not have taken him early based off that.  I felt he was late first, early second round value.  I probably would have went in another direction all together. 

Those guys can go either way and are high risk/high reward.  Too much risk for me.

And I have no issue with taking this side of the argument.  You're putting a premium on production over athleticism, which is fine but I inherently disagree with.  Look at the list of the "high floor" EDGE that have been drafted since 2005.  Solomon Thomas, Takk McKinley, Shaq Lawson, Dante Fowler, Shane Ray, Bjoern Werner, etc. are all guys who topped out as ~6 sacks per season guys.  There's no elite pass rushers in there.  You're more willing to gamble for that upside, and as a pass rusher you have to have a certain baseline athleticism.

[soulman]

14 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

No.  I did not.  I said the Packers wouldn't be facing the Joe Webb and Lamar Jackson's of the world.  That's a fact.  Unless you truly believe that Mitch Trubisky is the same kind of runner of those two, that's a true statement.  And if you think he's the same kind of threat with the ball in his hands as those two, then that's where we're going to have to agree to disagree.  And your extrapolation also fails because you don't take into account the fact that Tru had nearly doubled the amount of snaps.  The fact is that Lamar Jackson running the ball is a staple of the Ravens' offense.  It's a part of the Bears' offense for Tru, but not a main part of the offense.  Either way, this whole discussion is getting further and further from what the original topic was which was that the Packers weren't going to be facing the Lamar Jackson and Joe Webb's of the world.

You again huh?   

Yes.....you did.  I even highlighted it for you.  You wrote this and I quoted you directly word for word.

On 8/19/2019 at 11:12 PM, CWood21 said:

Very mobile?  Trubisky averaged 3.3 YPC in his lone season as a starter at North Carolina.

 

You're questioning Mitch's mobility and using useless college stats to back it because you either knew his NFL stats wouldn't confirm that or you didn't even bother to check them first before you posted it.

The dispute is not whether he's a "runner" but rather whether he has above average mobility and has displayed that so far as a pro and undoubtedly he has.  Jeezus, I hope he never has to run as much as Jackson or he won't last 16 games.  Running QBs tend to get hurt a lot and it limits their production, reference Cam Newton and at least a dozen or more before him.

But it's Mitch's mobility you disputed not his ability as a runner and it's right there for you to see again in black and white.....uh red.

I posted stats that disproved that.  You don't now get to re-frame what you wrote by insisting you actually meant something else.  You're trying to walk back your own comments as I quoted them.  That may work in your Packer Forum but it won't work in this one.

I hope you never commit a serious crime and have to testify in your own defense.  A good prosecutor would tear you to shreds.

And now I'm done debating this because once again you'll want to turn it into a circular debate just as you did with Amos and HHC-D and I'm not gonna play that game with you again.  So.....time to move on fella.....nothing to see here.

[soulman]

23 minutes ago, St Vince said:

For that reason alone i want Trips to keep running.

LOLOL.....of course you do.

Now please explain to Mr. CWood why while we enjoy Mitch's "mobility" we prefer that he not try to break Bobby Douglass's records for rushing.  We like him too much as a passer.

[dll2000]

17 minutes ago, soulman said:

Sounds more like the picks we used to make.

Hallelujah......those day are over.

We still do it.

Floyd, Fitts, Iggy, Denmark, Nichols, all traits picks IMO.  Better traits more risk you are willing to take.  Though that being said I think he learned from Floyd and Shaheen and wouldn't do that again that high.  I maintain he picked Floyd under heavy pressure from Fox and Fangio who were very high on him.  I base that off some interviews and interpreted coach/gm speak.  

Nichols was a home run.  Floyd a single (or a strike out if he doesn't perform to his draft slot this year).  

Typically you want to do it in later rounds where there is less risk of capital and that is what he typically does now.  

Flip side is highly productive guys like Wims, Shelley or Cohen who lack traits that can pan out.  

He will also go small school or injured to find diamonds in rough in later rounds. 

P.S. I would also consider Shaheen a traits pick even though he was productive in college.

 

 

 

[soulman]

30 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

If you want to look at the athletic testing, he tested more favorably to Bradley Chubb or Jadeveon Clowney than he did Jonathan Bullard.  LIS, Bullard was a DT/DE tweener coming out of college.  Rashan Gary was an EDGE.  There's a DRASTIC difference between the two, so I'm not really sure why you're trying to make this square peg fit in a round hole.  You don't see guys his size with that kind of athleticism.  You're getting even further away from comps when you throw out McPhee.  McPhee was a mediocre athlete by just about every metric.  He's a guy who was going to win as a power pig.  There's no twitch and there's no explosion.  In terms of comparisons, they're about damn near opposites.  Rashan Gary is an EDGE who probably can get kicked to the 5T in obvious passing situations.

Again, there's no comparison between the two.  One was an EDGE in college and is an EDGE in the NFL, the other was a DE or DT (I honestly can't remember) in college and a DE/DT tweener in the NFL.  As for Floyd, if production was a major factor over tools, we would have seen Lawson go before him.  But they didn't.  Because Lawson wasn't twitchy enough.  His floor was relatively high, but his ceiling was fairly low as well.  He was an average athlete.  That's not something that's at a premium in the NFL.  Getting a guy who is a career 6/8 sacks per year isn't going top 10.  You don't draft someone in the top 10 to be an average pass rusher.  You're looking at guys with upside.  Floyd had upside, Lawson didn't.

Huh?  No wonder you end up in circular debates.  You talk in circles and you put everything into only your own perspective which is fine but just saying it don't make it so. 

My advice to you is watch more games and read fewer scouting reports and maybe subscribe to NFL post game videos and watch.  Then you can see more of what actually happens when a guy plays not what some college scouting report said says should happen.  If they were all so accurate late round draft picks and UDFAs would never become All Pros.

"Lawson is twitchy enough"?  You talk like Mel Kiper on draft day.

I'm leaving this little discussion as well by saying Gary will be what Gary will be.  He may become a super stud or he may become a bust or something in between but he's not on my team so I don't really care all that much one way or another.  All I really care about as far as GB is concerned is that for a change we beat them twice this year.  That's been a long time coming and I want to enjoy it.

[CWood21]

Alright, I'm out again.

[soulman]

13 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

We still do it.

Floyd, Fitts, Iggy, Denmark, Nichols, all traits picks IMO.  Better traits more risk you are willing to take.  Though that being said I think he learned from Floyd and Shaheen and wouldn't do that again that high.  I maintain he picked Floyd under heavy pressure from Fox and Fangio who were very high on him.  I base that off some interviews and interpreted coach/gm speak.  

Nichols was a home run.  Floyd a single (or a strike out if he doesn't perform to his draft slot this year).  

Typically you want to do it in later rounds where there is less risk of capital and that is what he typically does now.  

Flip side is highly productive guys like Wims, Shelley or Cohen who lack traits that can pan out.  

He will also go small school or injured to find diamonds in rough in later rounds. 

P.S. I would also consider Shaheen a traits pick even though he was productive in college.

 

 

 

But so far no DL who can jump out of swimming pools.  LOL

Basically I don't disagree with how you've broken those guys down and other than Floyd the others were mid or late round picks so risk was somewhat mitigated by that.  But overall Pace and his staff have scored well in those middle rounds in comparison to what we experienced under Angelo and Emery.  That's basically where I was coming from.  It seems better scouting has paid off.

I believe Kevin White was Pace's lesson in not reaching based solely on someone marvelous athletic abilities and super stud Combine.

Floyd is a good OLB just not a great Edge Rusher, or at least not so far.  I was opposed to drafting Floyd but we needed someone to fill that Edge position and it was not a great draft for that type.  Sometimes that happens and you take the BPA you can to fill that need. IMHO that's where Floyd fit.  Given his injuries he's done fairly well but unless he can break out as a pass rusher this year he's not gonna see a top dollar offer from us and it's possible Pace may withdraw his option or even trade him.

Magic 8 Balls says ask again later.  I wanna see if he can play 16 games like he played the last 8 in 2018.

Shaheen was a reach but IMHO he wouldn't have lasted another round. And again do we really know what we have in him other than a guy who came from a small school program, needed some development, but hasn't gotten it due to injuries.  Somewhat like Floyd availability has been and issue with him so far.  So he's another I want to see explode this year and prove himself.

[malagabears]

17 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Alright, I'm out again.

, I've heard that before.

[dll2000]

54 minutes ago, soulman said:

 

Shaheen was a reach but IMHO he wouldn't have lasted another round. And again do we really know what we have in him other than a guy who came from a small school program, needed some development, but hasn't gotten it due to injuries.  

Elway was filmed at combine saying he really likes Shaheen and saying no way he gets out of second.  That's at least 2 GMs who were high on him.

You can't really say if Shaheen is a can't play bust or an injury bust or a bust at all yet.  Leads me to interesting thought as to what cut off date is before you are a bust.  

Heck Fuller didn't produce until 4th year and he was a first rounder.  Floyd has given us like 12 good games so far total, but if he plays at his best for 15 or 16 games this year I think people would be pretty pleased.

I think if Shaheen performs this year he is definitely not a bust.  

But if Shaheen stinks or is injured this year and he is gang busters next year is he a bust?  

Will he even get another shot like Fuller and Floyd who at least showed flashes in games whereas Shaheen as mainly only done it in practices?

Discuss amongst yourselves.  

 

 

 

 

[dll2000]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

And I have no issue with taking this side of the argument.  You're putting a premium on production over athleticism, which is fine but I inherently disagree with.  Look at the list of the "high floor" EDGE that have been drafted since 2005.  Solomon Thomas, Takk McKinley, Shaq Lawson, Dante Fowler, Shane Ray, Bjoern Werner, etc. are all guys who topped out as ~6 sacks per season guys.  There's no elite pass rushers in there.  You're more willing to gamble for that upside, and as a pass rusher you have to have a certain baseline athleticism.

More pass rushers go very early on athleticism than other end where they have high production, but mediocre testing.  Probably a coaches ego thing.  

You have your list plus classic example of Mike Mamula, more recently you have Robert Nkemdiche and I would even include, controversially, Clowney who I think is an underachiever and is over rated.   I know a lot of people think he is bees knees.   Not saying he is bad, but I don't think he is a guy you can count on.  I wouldn't have drafted Clowney #1 and I certainly wouldn't give him a giant guaranteed contract.   Nkemdiche wouldn't have even been on my board, I posted that at time.  

Flip side is Terrell Suggs who was highly productive in college, but thought not to be fast enough so he fell further than he should have.  Dwight Freeney fell a bit too, but he tested well so I don't remember why he slipped.

You also have the long guys like our Floyd or the speed guys like Beasley who go earlier than they should without the accompanying power/weight to them.  Thought is they can develop the size/strength and some do.  Most don't.   

Floyd might be getting there.  We'll see this year.

I think guys like Thomas are really 3 techs that people think can play DE and can't.

 

 

 

 

[soulman]

45 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

 Leads me to interesting thought as to what cut off date is before you are a bust.  

I'm pretty much on the three year plan. My belief is that by year three a player should have reached his potential or be ascending strongly toward it.  I'm not saying any player can't get better yet but right or wrong most expectations are based on draft status.

Fuller is a guy who lost an entire season to injury so in that case I'll give the guy an exemption for that year because his 4th year was really only his 3rd year as a healthy productive player.

I'll give Shaheen an exemption for 2018.  Although he did return he clearly was not 100% healed or in top football shape.  I'd like to see him begin to ascend as the guy Pace believed he could be but to do that he has to shake his injury bug.

Floyd has in combination already used up his exemptions.  If our expectations of him are to be a more impactful edge rusher he needs to show it this year or Pace will have a tough decision to make next spring.  Do we commit to him long term, let him play under his 5th year option, or look to trade him?  I don't see a replacement on the roster so the last option is unlikely unless we draft his replacement in 2020.

Edited August 21, 2019 by soulman