NFCN Rivals - Packers Thread

[soulman]

But I say again.....why would anyone use Mitch's college rushing stats when we have two years of NFL stats to rely on.

Sorry but I'm not gonna let Mr. CWood there frame this debate by cherry picking college stats that are now useless and don't accurately reflect Mitch's rushing average or his mobility.

Jeebus, all anyone had to do was watch a few of his games to see he put up a lot of yardage with his legs.  He was 5th in rushing yardage by QBs but had a higher average per carry than all but Josh Allen.  Higher than Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson.  And this was in 14 games.

So let's put to rest any idea that Mitch isn't a mobile QB.

[dll2000]

10 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I apologize for the rude posts.  Feel free to PM either myself or Packerraymond if you feel that you're being attacked in the future.

LOL. Not necessary my skin is thick and it's all in fun.  I thought it was funny to be honest.  I wasn't offended or surprised by responses.  And responses weren't that bad to be honest.  Like I said all in fun.  You'll never find me running to a teacher not at 9 and not at 40(ish).

In greater scheme we are brothers, but there is no one I'd rather beat at a game than my brothers.  

Thanks for offer though. 

[dll2000]

9 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Love to hear about what PFF thinks about the play of rookies in August

FAAAAAART

It was funny I was enjoying them bashing Gary and then they switched to bashing MT and I became angry.  LOL

Then they switched to taking about Pitt WR Washington who is rapidly improving.  They reasoned that its because he is more comfortable in offense and has to think less. When you have to think less you play better.

Okay fine, but you can't apply that same logic to MT?  Who has to think so much more than a WR? 

[soulman]

6 hours ago, CWood21 said:

And I don't put a ton of weight into preseason for a multitude of reasons.  But the reality is that pass rushers coming out of college usually aren't overly productive in their rookie year.  Obviously, there's the exceptions and those are usually the guys who are drafted in the top 5 (i.e. Bradley Chubb, Myles Garrett, Von Miller, etc.) who have immediate success, but it's usually that Y1 to Y2 jump.  The Packers paid Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith nearly $120M combined to be our starting pass rushers.  Rashan Gary is currently in competition to be our #3 EDGE.  Comparing to Gary to Bullard is a really bad comp on so many different levels.

OK, now I'll tackle this.

Tell me why comparing Gary to Bullard is bad on "so many levels"?  If there are so many why did you fail to mention even one?  I like facts but then based on our previous back and forths you should know that by now.

I'm basing my comparison on both players being somewhat less than perfect for the position they were drafted to play.  Bullard was too light at 275lb to play as a 3-4 DE and though he's added 20lbs he's never shown the flash and penetration skills he did in college and probably won't be re-signed as others have jumped over him on the depth chart.

Gary is also about 275lbs and are the Packers potentially asking him to play out of position as an OLB when he was more of a 4-3 DE in college?  If he fails to make an impact as an Edge Rusher will they ask him to add weight and move him to a 3-4 DE position?  No one foresaw Bullard failing to be what he was in college until he showed it as a rookie.

I'd also venture to guess we could find quite a few rookie pass rushers who did alright in their rookie year who weren't top 5 picks but then I'm not certain Gary was ever expected to be one anyway.  I'm not saying he can't be but his college stats don't indicate a guy whose coming in as a top pass rusher.  That's something he'll need to develop if he does.

Typically those who are good pass rushers in college have a much better shot at also becoming one as a pro.  This is what pro scouts tells us not something I just made up. It also why I've said all along that Leonard Floyd was not initially cut out to be a great Edge Rusher. He never was in college either so he's had to learn how to become a better one.

[beardown3231]

8 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I honestly wouldn't take too much from these preseason games.  The Packers faced Joe Webb, Trace McSorley, and Lamar Jackson.  Between the 3 of them, they had over 3800 rushing yards in their final season in college combined.  He had poor games in terms of playing contain, which isn't surprising considering he's a rookie but the Packers aren't facing QBs like Joe Webb and Lamar Jackson on a regular basis.

I'm on your side. PFF is a crock

[soulman]

14 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

It was funny I was enjoying them bashing Gary and then they switched to bashing MT and I became angry.  LOL

Then they switched to taking about Pitt WR Washington who is rapidly improving.  They reasoned that its because he is more comfortable in offense and has to think less. When you have to think less you play better.

Okay fine, but you can't apply that same logic to MT?  Who has to think so much more than a WR? 

PFF has lost all credibility with me.  They're like the Stephen A. Smith/Skip Bayless of NFL analytics......not to be taken seriously.

[dll2000]

9 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I honestly wouldn't take too much from these preseason games.  The Packers faced Joe Webb, Trace McSorley, and Lamar Jackson.  Between the 3 of them, they had over 3800 rushing yards in their final season in college combined.  He had poor games in terms of playing contain, which isn't surprising considering he's a rookie but the Packers aren't facing QBs like Joe Webb and Lamar Jackson on a regular basis.

That TD run by Jackson was up there with one of best I have ever seen.  Preseason or no.  Because it was flagged people act like it didn't happen. 

That was amazing.

I wouldn't want to play Ravens this year.  They will lose some games, but they will be a ***** to prepare for in 3 days of practice.   

[dll2000]

1 minute ago, soulman said:

PFF has lost all credibility with me.  They're like the Stephen A. Smith/Skip Bayless of NFL analytics......not to be taken seriously.

Data is like that, it always has to interpreted by humans with bias. 

It has to be collected by humans with bias too.  

Its always going to be a mixed bag.  Particularly and more so in football.  

You aren't even same guy week to week much less season to season due to wide variety of factors.  You rely on 10 other guys to your job and a scheme than can help or hurt you play to play.  Your opponent can change in game, you can be schemed or doubled, you can be unblocked, every week it's a whole new set of guys and abilities of opponents vary wildly.  

 

[dll2000]

But my biggest beef with PFF is they go too fast to be good and trustworthy.

To grade one player accurately you need to watch whole play first and understand offense and defense and what the scheme is. That usually takes around three watchings in slow motion assuming you are familiar with defensive scheme and the offensive play being called and how it is supposed to be run.  If you don't know you have to deconstruct it and learn it, which takes a lot of viewings.  It may not be apparent what reads or assignments are supposed to be and often isn't.  Then there is guess work involved if you don't have access to someone who knows.  

Then knowing that you have to watch that one player three times at least in slow motion.

Thats at least 3-5 minutes for one player and one play for a minimal job.  They are doing it almost real time for multiple players.  

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

Okay fine, but you can't apply that same logic to MT?

Don’t let logic get in the way of a good narrative... 

[soulman]

48 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Data is like that, it always has to interpreted by humans with bias. 

It has to be collected by humans with bias too.  

Its always going to be a mixed bag.  Particularly and more so in football.  

You aren't even same guy week to week much less season to season due to wide variety of factors.  You rely on 10 other guys to your job and a scheme than can help or hurt you play to play.  Your opponent can change in game, you can be schemed or doubled, you can be unblocked, every week it's a whole new set of guys and abilities of opponents vary wildly.  

 

I prefer my analytics without opinions attached.  I'd rather form my own.

[Cheesehawk]

9 hours ago, soulman said:

Mr. Wood, Mitch Trubisky isn't playing college ball any longer.  We can use his pro stats now.  He rushed for 421 last season in 14 games and 669 in 26 games over two seasons and averaging over 6 yds per rush. 

There are quite a few RBs who failed to rush for over 400 yards last year and few average over 6 ypc.  Just because you may have only watched his games vs GB doesn't mean he hasn't done quite well in others.  Aaron Rodger has never rushed for 421 yard in even one season even in 16 games and by my description he is a very mobile QB.....or at least was in his prime.  Now I'm less certain.

If you don't feel Mitch Trubisky is a mobile QB we can end our debate here because you don't have enough info to debate with me and I will not take advantage of an unarmed man. 

Alex Smith had 355 yards rushing in his final year in Nagys system... he is one of the great mobile QBs of this generation. 

[TheBitzMan]

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

That TD run by Jackson was up there with one of best I have ever seen.  Preseason or no.  Because it was flagged people act like it didn't happen. 

That was amazing.

I wouldn't want to play Ravens this year.  They will lose some games, but they will be a ***** to prepare for in 3 days of practice.   

The best you've ever seen? Kenny Clark had would've stopped him for a 6 yard gain in the regular season...

Lamar is a fun player and the hurdle at the end was cool but let's slow down with the hyperbole just because it happened against the Packers.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Cmon dude, you know as well as I do that Tru was arguably the best running QB in the NFL last year.  He has great eacapability, and he protects himself with sideline or the slide.  Josh Allen ended up overtaking him in yardage at the end of the year, but that was after Mitch got hurt against the Vikings and he pretty much stopped running to protect himself.

I'm not saying he isn't mobile, but he isn't the guy you think of when you think running QBs.  When you think running QBs, you think Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, etc.  Do you think Trubisky is in the same boat as those guys?

[Leader]

Just now, CWood21 said:

I'm not saying he isn't mobile, but he isn't the guy you think of when you think running QBs.  When you think running QBs, you think Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, etc.  Do you think Trubisky is in the same boat as those guys?

Running QBs have a far shorter NFL shelf life than their position allows. Watsons had (what?) two knee surgeries already (?) and Newton's gonna be the first Bionic NFL QB if he doesnt stop running with the ball. His bodies breaking down already. If Trubisky was smart, he'd learn how NOT to scramble / run with the ball.