2020 Draft thread

[Thaiphoon]

1 hour ago, turtle28 said:

The only other team I see trading up for Tua would be the Chargers and I wouldn't  want to trade down to #6 bc we could miss on the top 3 defensive prospects Young, Simmons & Okudah.

Bingo! Every single GM out there knows that we're not coming off of #2 and dropping down and potentially missing on all three. If we're dropping, pick #5 is where we stop (absent an absurd RG3/Ricky Williams-like deal). Every team knows this. Which is why Miami can afford to roll the dice and watch the Chargers try to trade but not offer enough and then the Redskins take Young. 

Like I said. Picks 3 and 4? Yeah, the Dolphins need to worry about those going to the Chargers or another team. Which is why they offer 5, 39 and another pick (day 2 or 3) to sweeten the deal if they want to assure themselves Tua. 

[Thaiphoon]

To follow up on my declaration.

Think of it this way. 

1) Bengals take Burrow. Easy choice

2) Redskins really want Chase. But are listening to trade offers. They don't want to miss out on Young, Simmons AND Okudah, which is a VERY REAL possibility to them at this point in the draft if they fall anywhere below pick 5. So they will really only be trading down to 3 or 5 at the last. The Redskins have been stupid but this is a new F.O. and you have Jack Del Rio and RR salivating about those three players. Every GM knows this. 

And no, at this point with Chase Young on the board, the Lions are NOT going to trade up into 2 and then trade the pick away to a QB hungry team. That takes the Lions out of the top 5 and out of getting Simmons as the consolation prize to Chase. 

Which brings me to pick...

3) The Lions don't need a QB right now. They take Simmons here and thank their lucky stars they got him (whom they have rated almost as highly as Young). Unless someone comes with an absurd deal, they stand pat. Miami knows this. Which is why they have talks with them about possibly taking the pick off their hands and giving them 5, 39 and their 3rd (#70). That would give the Lions 5 picks in the first three rounds and give them ammunition to trade BACK into the latter part of the first round for anyone who falls that they love. And they still get Okudah or Simmons (most likely) out of the deal.

4) The Giants are not going to trade this pick to anyone else besides Miami if we take Young. They just aren't. Because they don't want to miss out on the best LT. They will take a huge LT that they think is going to be great (Wirfs? Thomas?) as a counterpiece to the piece we just put into play on our defense. But just for giggles, assuming the first 3 picks play out like I said (Burrow, Young, Simmons) Miami can jump up one spot here and grab Tua. And it's not gonna cost them 2 firsts and a second (or adding in a 2021 first) to do it. It will most likely cost them (at MOST) 5, 39 and a swap of thirds. The Giants are not going to drop to 6 unless the Chargers get really ridiculous. Because dropping two spots means Miami, who just lost out on Tua to the Chargers, will take the best LT and start building the team for the QB "to be named later". Gettleman knows this.

5) Miami simply takes Tua at their natural spot.

 

Burrow, Young, Simmons, Wirfs/Thomas, then Miami takes Tua. 

That is how I see the top 5 picks playing out (absent trades). Sure another team can come in and do a stupid RG3 deal. But I seriously doubt that will happen anymore. Because 5,18, and 39 in this draft to move up 3 spots, when you don't need to, is actually worse than the RG3 trade, IMHO.

[Skins212689]

2 hours ago, Thaiphoon said:

A franchise QB that you can get at 5. Or you can get at 3 or 4, for far less cost.

If that's the risk your willing to take I'm good. I have my Franchise QB and will be adding a Dominate QB Wrecker. 

[Skins212689]

2 hours ago, Thaiphoon said:

Would you like an explanation?

I understand the draft scale where you add and subtract the value of picks if that's what your referring to.

I just think for a Franchise QB (espeically a guy like Tua) Miami would be willing to ignore some of that for Tua. He definitely if not for past injury would be the #1 pick over Burrow and Young in my opinion. 

[Skins212689]

2 hours ago, PARROTHEAD said:

But you sound like Miami is the only one trying to trade. You cant really go for or accept that 3-4 spot until the 2nd pick has happened. Because you dont know who is trying to work a deal to get ahead of everyone else.

So there is still a lot of value to the pick.

Though Miami is the only team I really want to do this deal with because of the picks they have. 

Rivera was doing alot to show we possibly had interest in Tua. Had no Loyalty to Haskins, so if played right I do think one of those deals are possible with a regular offseason draft scenerio. Plus Tua has been recovering very well through the process enhancing his value. 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Skins212689

[Skins212689]

25 minutes ago, Thaiphoon said:

To follow up on my declaration.

Think of it this way. 

1) Bengals take Burrow. Easy choice

2) Redskins really want Chase. But are listening to trade offers. They don't want to miss out on Young, Simmons AND Okudah, which is a VERY REAL possibility to them at this point in the draft if they fall anywhere below pick 5. So they will really only be trading down to 3 or 5 at the last. The Redskins have been stupid but this is a new F.O. and you have Jack Del Rio and RR salivating about those three players. Every GM knows this. 

And no, at this point with Chase Young on the board, the Lions are NOT going to trade up into 2 and then trade the pick away to a QB hungry team. That takes the Lions out of the top 5 and out of getting Simmons as the consolation prize to Chase. 

Which brings me to pick...

3) The Lions don't need a QB right now. They take Simmons here and thank their lucky stars they got him (whom they have rated almost as highly as Young). Unless someone comes with an absurd deal, they stand pat. Miami knows this. Which is why they have talks with them about possibly taking the pick off their hands and giving them 5, 39 and their 3rd (#70). That would give the Lions 5 picks in the first three rounds and give them ammunition to trade BACK into the latter part of the first round for anyone who falls that they love. And they still get Okudah or Simmons (most likely) out of the deal.

4) The Giants are not going to trade this pick to anyone else besides Miami if we take Young. They just aren't. Because they don't want to miss out on the best LT. They will take a huge LT that they think is going to be great (Wirfs? Thomas?) as a counterpiece to the piece we just put into play on our defense. But just for giggles, assuming the first 3 picks play out like I said (Burrow, Young, Simmons) Miami can jump up one spot here and grab Tua. And it's not gonna cost them 2 firsts and a second (or adding in a 2021 first) to do it. It will most likely cost them (at MOST) 5, 39 and a swap of thirds. The Giants are not going to drop to 6 unless the Chargers get really ridiculous. Because dropping two spots means Miami, who just lost out on Tua to the Chargers, will take the best LT and start building the team for the QB "to be named later". Gettleman knows this.

5) Miami simply takes Tua at their natural spot.

 

Burrow, Young, Simmons, Wirfs/Thomas, then Miami takes Tua. 

That is how I see the top 5 picks playing out (absent trades). Sure another team can come in and do a stupid RG3 deal. But I seriously doubt that will happen anymore. Because 5,18, and 39 in this draft to move up 3 spots, when you don't need to, is actually worse than the RG3 trade, IMHO.

Jeudy is a guy I want in the top 5. He's 2nd on my board after Young. 

[Skins212689]

1 hour ago, Thaiphoon said:

Bingo! Every single GM out there knows that we're not coming off of #2 and dropping down and potentially missing on all three. If we're dropping, pick #5 is where we stop (absent an absurd RG3/Ricky Williams-like deal). Every team knows this. Which is why Miami can afford to roll the dice and watch the Chargers try to trade but not offer enough and then the Redskins take Young. 

Like I said. Picks 3 and 4? Yeah, the Dolphins need to worry about those going to the Chargers or another team. Which is why they offer 5, 39 and another pick (day 2 or 3) to sweeten the deal if they want to assure themselves Tua. 

Yet the way Rivera was playing things before Covid-19 and the Kyle Allen trade it was as though he had serious interest in Tua. 

Now with 21 days before the draft, Miami makes the deal with us because they have truly fallen in love with Tua and are GUARANTEED he is a Dolphin. 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Skins212689

[Doc Draper]

This draft is pretty set at the top. Don’t see anything more than a Miami move up but that’s still a low probability.
 

other very low probability but highly interesting scenarios- 1. Never underestimate a failed organizations incompetence: the Jags are in perfect position in the Tank for Trevor sweepstakes ( and the rebirth of Gruden as a quarterback guru paving his way in the next few years to be foolishly hired as some teams head coach),  but they blow it by trading up with the giants. Out of all the top 5 teams- he’s the only one ( Gettleman) who has the sack to trade down and get all the negative fan reaction that will follow. Jags have 9 and 20 and can get Tua. Giants can take a OT and another very good prospect instead of the marginal gain by taking Wirfs. I don’t see the Jags doing it, but who knows
 

The other wild card is the Raiders.: A trade up with the Giants or us is a possibility- but very remote. They have 12 and 19. 
 

the last remote, but possible scenario is a team positioning itself to be in a position for Trevor. Is Trevor the next Elway? If you think so don’t you do everything you can to position yourself, including tanking in 20 and loading up on assets to trade up in 21? The Jags are in prime position, but what is the dolphins, who have all this ammo this draft, trade back for pucks in 21 to make a run for Trevor. Would be a bold strategy Cotton, and highly entertaining. 
 

this is also remote- but what if the NFL has to cancel or abbreviate the 20 season. This is a unique time and a smart team could use this crises as a rationale to build their team for Super Bowls in future years. 

[turtle28]

7 hours ago, Skins212689 said:

Yet the way Rivera was playing things before Covid-19 and the Kyle Allen trade it was as though he had serious interest in Tua. 

Now with 21 days before the draft, Miami makes the deal with us because they have truly fallen in love with Tua and are GUARANTEED he is a Dolphin. 

It was a smokescreen. You ca’t believe  any news you hear the month before the draft. Almost every report is a smokescreen an inaccurate. The Redskins were trying to see what kind of price the #2 pick would be so they were saying publicly that they wanted to take Tua. That makes the Dolphins & Chargers want to offer them deals for the #2 pick and get in a bidding war.

[lavar703]

7 hours ago, Skins212689 said:

Yet the way Rivera was playing things before Covid-19 and the Kyle Allen trade it was as though he had serious interest in Tua. 

Now with 21 days before the draft, Miami makes the deal with us because they have truly fallen in love with Tua and are GUARANTEED he is a Dolphin. 

I said awhile back I wouldn’t be shocked if Miami simply passes in Tua at 5. Now there’s stories coming out everywhere about Miami not wanting to trade up and another one from Matt Miller today that Herbert is their top guy. I’ve felt for awhile now Tua could tumble. His height, the injuries and as silly as it sounds I wonder how much him being a lefty impacts an offense? 
 

There’s a real possibility Burrow goes one with Herbert and Love the second and third QBs picked. I don’t think draftniks are taking the injuries as seriously as a teams front office is going too. It’s really tough to give up a bunch of draft capital to move up and pick a guy who had a major injury and you can’t work him out or give him a physical at your facility. This is going to be a real problem for Tua’s camp. 

[Thaiphoon]

8 hours ago, Skins212689 said:

I understand the draft scale where you add and subtract the value of picks if that's what your referring to.

Nope. Not my question.

Serious question. How do you count picks in future years?

[Thaiphoon]

7 hours ago, Skins212689 said:

Yet the way Rivera was playing things before Covid-19 and the Kyle Allen trade it was as though he had serious interest in Tua. 

Now with 21 days before the draft, Miami makes the deal with us because they have truly fallen in love with Tua and are GUARANTEED he is a Dolphin. 

This isn't your first draft, right?

They call it lying season for a reason.

[Thaiphoon]

12 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

It was a smokescreen. You ca’t believe  any news you hear the month before the draft. Almost every report is a smokescreen an inaccurate. The Redskins were trying to see what kind of price the #2 pick would be so they were saying publicly that they wanted to take Tua. That makes the Dolphins & Chargers want to offer them deals for the #2 pick and get in a bidding war.

This ^^ So much this ^^^

[Thaiphoon]

11 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

I said awhile back I wouldn’t be shocked if Miami simply passes in Tua at 5. Now there’s stories coming out everywhere about Miami not wanting to trade up and another one from Matt Miller today that Herbert is their top guy. I’ve felt for awhile now Tua could tumble. His height, the injuries and as silly as it sounds I wonder how much him being a lefty impacts an offense? 
 

There’s a real possibility Burrow goes one with Herbert and Love the second and third QBs picked. I don’t think draftniks are taking the injuries as seriously as a teams front office is going too. It’s really tough to give up a bunch of draft capital to move up and pick a guy who had a major injury and you can’t work him out or give him a physical at your facility. This is going to be a real problem for Tua’s camp. 

Rodgers tumbled to like 25 IIRC.

Jonathan Allen tumbled to 17 and he was a projected top 5 pick going into the draft.

Tua tumbling is a VERY real possibility and it's possible Miami keeps 5 and then uses one or two of the latter two firsts to trade up to get him at a lower spot.

[turtle28]

3 hours ago, Doc Draper said:

This draft is pretty set at the top. Don’t see anything more than a Miami move up but that’s still a low probability.
 

other very low probability but highly interesting scenarios- 1. Never underestimate a failed organizations incompetence: the Jags are in perfect position in the Tank for Trevor sweepstakes ( and the rebirth of Gruden as a quarterback guru paving his way in the next few years to be foolishly hired as some teams head coach),  but they blow it by trading up with the giants. Out of all the top 5 teams- he’s the only one ( Gettleman) who has the sack to trade down and get all the negative fan reaction that will follow. Jags have 9 and 20 and can get Tua. Giants can take a OT and another very good prospect instead of the marginal gain by taking Wirfs. I don’t see the Jags doing it, but who knows
 

The other wild card is the Raiders.: A trade up with the Giants or us is a possibility- but very remote. They have 12 and 19. 
 

the last remote, but possible scenario is a team positioning itself to be in a position for Trevor. Is Trevor the next Elway? If you think so don’t you do everything you can to position yourself, including tanking in 20 and loading up on assets to trade up in 21? The Jags are in prime position, but what is the dolphins, who have all this ammo this draft, trade back for pucks in 21 to make a run for Trevor. Would be a bold strategy Cotton, and highly entertaining. 
 

this is also remote- but what if the NFL has to cancel or abbreviate the 20 season. This is a unique time and a smart team could use this crises as a rationale to build their team for Super Bowls in future years. 

If they shorten the season it gives us a better chance to win the Super Bowl. Both strikes shortened seasons we won the Super Bowl when we won 2 in the 80s.