2020 Draft thread

[turtle28]

20 minutes ago, Skins212689 said:

Every prospect isn't coming off of a injury so I doubt that's true. 

It absolutely affects every prospect but it's also true the coronavirus affects Tua more. Both can be true.

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

1. If you’re that convinced that the Giants are going to take an OT, how much risk is there really of missing out on Young, Simmons, and Okudah at 6?.

2. If we’re assuming Detroit takes Young at 3 after we trade down, who is taking Okudah before 6? The Giants, after they spent $15M AAV on James Bradberry and used a 1st on DeAndre Baker last year? The Dolphins, when they just gave Byron Jones $82M and also have Xavien Howard on a big contract as well?

3. If the Chargers move up from 6, that leaves Miami still sitting there at #5, with no Burrow and Tua. Are they really going to take a defensive player over a QB there? I don’t think so. Especially if they really like Herbert as has been rumored recently.

 

All that said, I’m not really that concerned about missing out on Okudah in particular. I love Young and I really like Simmons (although top 5 is a rich price for an off-ball LB), but I’m already risking losing both of them if I move down to 5 anyway. Moving down to 6 and adding Okudah to the “at risk” category doesn’t move the needle much for me. I don’t like making big investments in CBs, and I don’t think Rivera does either. How much are we really suffering if we “get stuck” taking Jeudy or our top OT instead of Okudah? Not enough for me to take a potential trade-down to #6 off the board, that’s for sure. CBS posted an article a couple days ago suggesting that LAC might have to give up #6, #37, #71, and their 2021 1st to get up to #2. I’m absolutely considering that, Okudah be damned. 

I really, really like Okudah and I think he can be what Denzel Ward was as a rookie for the Browns & what Marshon Lattimore was for the Saints as a rookie.

It's debatable whether I’d pass on a #1 corner for a WR or LT at this point. I have to say tough that it's true that Okudah, Jeudy, Lamb, Derrick Brown & the top 3 or 4 OTs are about equal to me in grades.

I'm definitely still in the don't trade down and pass Chase Young camp but your post does shed light on the fact that there isn't a huge difference between the talent level of Okudah, Jeudy, Lamb, Wills, Wirfs, Thomas and Becton.

Edited April 3, 2020 by turtle28

[naptownskinsfan]

23 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

It absolutely affects every prospect but it's also true the coronavirus affects Tua more. Both can be true.

It hurts Tua more due to medical issues, but every rookie is going to be behind the 8-ball without the rookie symposium, rookie mini-camps and other OTA's and mini-camps for the rest of the team.  

EDIT: It will also impact free agents going to new teams, and teams going through coaching changes and new systems like we are.  

[HTTRDynasty]

The scouts

The Athletic recently spoke with two long-time scouts willing to make picks for Washington. They were free to select any prospect or make a first-round trade. However, since they aren’t focused on the Redskins’ depth chart nor willing to spill their team’s state secrets unprompted, I helped narrow the scope by specifying position needs and providing names of players to consider. Some of those needs and prospect examples are listed below.

The transcript was edited slightly for clarity.

Round 1 (2) — Chase Young, DE, Ohio State

Forget 15 minutes. Neither scout needed more than 15 seconds with this selection.

Scout 1: “Take Chase. Good pick. Rivera likes DL, so any other argument doesn’t matter.”

Scout 2: “Chase at two. No trade out. Next question.”

https://theathletic.com/1716377/2020/04/02/two-nfl-scouts-one-agent-and-seven-rounds-of-redskins-only-mock-draft-picks/

[naptownskinsfan]

From that Athletic article, I really like the pick of Runyan in the late rounds, he could be a swing tackle for us for a few years.  Plenty of starting experience, big school, and father's NFL pedigree.  

Also, the third round pick was selected to be a TE by both scouts- one went Albert O, one went Trautman

[turtle28]

33 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

The scouts

The Athletic recently spoke with two long-time scouts willing to make picks for Washington. They were free to select any prospect or make a first-round trade. However, since they aren’t focused on the Redskins’ depth chart nor willing to spill their team’s state secrets unprompted, I helped narrow the scope by specifying position needs and providing names of players to consider. Some of those needs and prospect examples are listed below.

The transcript was edited slightly for clarity.

Round 1 (2) — Chase Young, DE, Ohio State

Forget 15 minutes. Neither scout needed more than 15 seconds with this selection.

Scout 1: “Take Chase. Good pick. Rivera likes DL, so any other argument doesn’t matter.”

Scout 2: “Chase at two. No trade out. Next question.”

https://theathletic.com/1716377/2020/04/02/two-nfl-scouts-one-agent-and-seven-rounds-of-redskins-only-mock-draft-picks/

[turtle28]

27 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

From that Athletic article, I really like the pick of Runyan in the late rounds, he could be a swing tackle for us for a few years.  Plenty of starting experience, big school, and father's NFL pedigree.  

Also, the third round pick was selected to be a TE by both scouts- one went Albert O, one went Trautman

Love that too! Runyan may be able to play RT in the pros but is most likely going to have to transition to guard. I would be very worried w/ him as a 3rd/swing OT as I think he’d get abused on the left side.

[turtle28]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/04/03/draft-big-board-updated-top-100-prospects?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=SI Extra 040320&utm_term=SI Extra - USE THIS - List

Judging off this list we’d get the #1 prospect in the draft - Chase Young - after the Bungals took Burrow #1.

Then, at #66 we’d take Adam Trautman, TE from Dayton.

[PARROTHEAD]

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

The scouts

The Athletic recently spoke with two long-time scouts willing to make picks for Washington. They were free to select any prospect or make a first-round trade. However, since they aren’t focused on the Redskins’ depth chart nor willing to spill their team’s state secrets unprompted, I helped narrow the scope by specifying position needs and providing names of players to consider. Some of those needs and prospect examples are listed below.

The transcript was edited slightly for clarity.

Round 1 (2) — Chase Young, DE, Ohio State

Forget 15 minutes. Neither scout needed more than 15 seconds with this selection.

Scout 1: “Take Chase. Good pick. Rivera likes DL, so any other argument doesn’t matter.”

Scout 2: “Chase at two. No trade out. Next question.”

https://theathletic.com/1716377/2020/04/02/two-nfl-scouts-one-agent-and-seven-rounds-of-redskins-only-mock-draft-picks/

And for every article like that. You can find one going this... All articles are just trying to get clicks.

Quote

NFL Draft insider Tony Pauline stated that Young has attracted the biggest discrepancy between media perception and opinion among NFL scouts, as "many in the scouting community feel he is overrated."

https://247sports.com/Article/Chase-Young-2020-NFL-Draft-overrated-Pro-Football-Network-Ohio-State-Buckeyes-143488103/

[Thaiphoon]

4 hours ago, e16bball said:

1. If you’re that convinced that the Giants are going to take an OT, how much risk is there really of missing out on Young, Simmons, and Okudah at 6?.

Good questions. I'll take them in turn. 

If Simmons OR Young are still on the board, they take one of them. With Young and Simmons off the board, the Giants go with their next BPA, their 3rd rated player (their OT) to counter the fact that we have Young.

Quote

2. If we’re assuming Detroit takes Young at 3 after we trade down, who is taking Okudah before 6? The Giants, after they spent $15M AAV on James Bradberry and used a 1st on DeAndre Baker last year? The Dolphins, when they just gave Byron Jones $82M and also have Xavien Howard on a big contract as well?

Good catch. I was focusing only on Young/Simmons in this for the Redskins (as BPA 1 and BPA 2) as players they coveted in the top 5. I think the Redskins really want one of the two.  I threw in Okudah simply because the reality of a team trading up to take him is real if they trade from 3 to 6 and miss out on a chance of mathematically guaranteeing themselves one of the three. But I do agree that Okudah can be had with a Top 10 pick. I just don't think the Redskins want to screw themselves out of Young or Simmons.

Quote

3. If the Chargers move up from 6, that leaves Miami still sitting there at #5, with no Burrow and Tua. Are they really going to take a defensive player over a QB there? I don’t think so. Especially if they really like Herbert as has been rumored recently.

See, here is where my gut is telling me that somehow they aren't that enamored with him as they are saying. With Burrow, Young, Simmons, Tua, all off the board (not in that order) then they are left with either taking Herbert (or Love) or grabbing the best LT. Because I think they might be convinced that they can use 5 on the LT and both of their other firsts to trade up to get the other QB left (only Raiders at that point are a danger to take Herbert or Love). At this point though, if they ARE all in on Herbert, then it's yet another reason why Miami won't trade up (they get Tua OR Herbert at their natural pick) to #2 and if so then why are we talking about moving off of #2 for the equivalent of the RG3 (but worse)?

 

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All that said, I’m not really that concerned about missing out on Okudah in particular. I love Young and I really like Simmons (although top 5 is a rich price for an off-ball LB), but I’m already risking losing both of them if I move down to 5 anyway. Moving down to 6 and adding Okudah to the “at risk” category doesn’t move the needle much for me. I don’t like making big investments in CBs, and I don’t think Rivera does either. How much are we really suffering if we “get stuck” taking Jeudy or our top OT instead of Okudah? Not enough for me to take a potential trade-down to #6 off the board, that’s for sure. 

Good thoughts there. I'm not concerned with it either. But our defensive-minded coaching staff might be. I agree Okudah can be had with a later-than-#5-pick, but I don't think the staff wants to lose out on Young or Simmons (with one of them going to an NFCE rival), TBQH. And yes, if we suddenly found ourselves at 6? Sure we take the OT or the WR. But I think that isn't the focus of this staff. 

I could be wrong, though and you've made some excellent points here as to why they could not be too upset with it shaking out that way. I'm just not convinced, yet, counselor.

Quote

CBS posted an article a couple days ago suggesting that LAC might have to give up #6, #37, #71, and their 2021 1st to get up to #2. I’m absolutely considering that, Okudah be damned. 

I literally laughed at that article. I think that was a guy under a deadline, trying to get his content in for the week and was either in Colorado or Washington State and partaking of the dispensaries there before writing it. Because that's essentially richer than what we gave up to get RG3 (for the same jump in spots). And no one is doing that deal anymore. Just like no one is trading their entire draft for a single player anymore.

But, if they DID? Yeah. Like I said in another post. I would definitely consider that trade.

[turtle28]

2 minutes ago, PARROTHEAD said:

And for every article like that. You can find one going this... All articles are just trying to get clicks.

https://247sports.com/Article/Chase-Young-2020-NFL-Draft-overrated-Pro-Football-Network-Ohio-State-Buckeyes-143488103/

And I think Burrow is overrated. I could go write a blog about it and then there would be “that discrepancy out there.” Haha 🤣 

[PARROTHEAD]

Just now, turtle28 said:

And I think Burrow is overrated. I could go write a blog about it and then there would be “that discrepancy out there.” Haha 🤣 

If youre getting clicks. Youre getting paid... Ill be your LSU Source for 10%.

[turtle28]

16 minutes ago, PARROTHEAD said:

If youre getting clicks. Youre getting paid... Ill be your LSU Source for 10%.

You don’t need to get paid to get clicks. You have to know how to put a controversial article out there and use tags and other features to get to be one of the most viewed articles.

I learned a lot of if when I used to write for Son of Washington before the guy who started the website stupidly got rid of Evan who was the real talent on the site, a great writer and very media savvy. He’s the guy who was on Redskins Nation and ESPN like 7/8 years ago. 

Edited April 3, 2020 by turtle28

[Thaiphoon]

7 hours ago, Skins212689 said:

I don't know. I'd be willing to learn though. 

Think of the time value of money.. If I gave you the option of $100 today, or $100 in a year, which would you choose?

You'd choose the money now. 

Why?

Because with that money you could use it to pay bills now. Or invest it an let it grow. So that a year from now, the money has grown (or been used to grow your business or investments) and thus will be worth more in a year than waiting for that $100.

So money today, is worth more than money in the future. 

Same with draft picks. 

To correctly value the picks, if you have to wait a year to get the pick, you treat it as one round lower. 

So with the RG3 trade, we traded 

Current year's 1st and 2nd, the next year's 1st, and then the following year's first.

1st and 2nd in current year (let's just say this current year of 2020)? Full value

Following year's 1st (2021)? You treat it as getting a 2020 2nd rounder

Third year's 1st (2022)? You treat it again one round lower than 2021. So it's equal to a 2020 3rd rounder in terms of draft pick value

So we traded in the equivalence of = a 1st, two 2nds, and a 3rd.

Your trade was two first this year and a second this year AND a 2021 first. In current year equivalence, that is = two 1sts, and two 2nds.

So we traded the equivalent of this 

1, 2, 2, 3

Your trade was

1, 1, 2, 2

Those are not even close to being the same in value. And both were/are made for a franchise QB.

 

[lavar703]

23 minutes ago, PARROTHEAD said:

And for every article like that. You can find one going this... All articles are just trying to get clicks.

https://247sports.com/Article/Chase-Young-2020-NFL-Draft-overrated-Pro-Football-Network-Ohio-State-Buckeyes-143488103/

Except this Tony Pauline article was floated long ago and I haven’t seen another one like it. I’ve never seen another scout even validate this article. Sheehan had him on his show after this article because they’re friends and he basically said Chase Young is overrated but still the best player in the draft and he’d pick him at two so I honestly have no idea what he’s getting at other than writing an article that he knew would get clicks.