The Iron Chef!!

[CriminalMind]

If Vikings & Cook agree before this season. 

$10M/$6M/$6M = $22M gaureenteed

$10M/$10M/$11M/$11M total 

4 year / $42M total / $22M G with $10.5M AAV

If I remember, I previously said around $10M AAV (with Gordons $8M as a negotiating figure), so the above contract would relatively be in line with that.

[Cearbhall]

4 hours ago, Krauser said:

The benefit for the Vikings is avoiding a holdout by their star RB — the current face of the franchise who’s making basically the same money as the punter. The leverage of extending him a year early should allow them to get him on a cheaper deal.

??

Right. you are saying pretty much what you said.  Cook would get a fair amount less than Henry if he agreed to an extension right now. Your reasoning was the same as mine, that he has a year left on his contract so has less leverage than Henry. @swede700 disagreed with that. He thinks that the Vikings should give Cook right now nearly what Henry just got. 

If Cook would agree to an extension with an average value of $11MM annually that guarantees him less than Henry was guaranteed I would think the Vikings would do that. That deal would put Cook on the books for ~$24MM over the next three seasons ($8MM average over that time) and give the team some affordable option years after that if Cook was still playing well. The option years would average no more than $11MM per year if the team paid out $22MM in the first two years of his extension. The Vikings should be happy to sign him to as many of those option years as Cook was willing to sign up for.

The threat of holding out is pretty weak. That should not be enough leverage for Cook to get the Vikings to extend Cook to almost the same package that Henry got. Cook would have to give up something from what Henry got so the Vikings would get something in return for signing him right now. The $6M over a four year extension at $11M average, as you suggest, would be that something that gives the Vikings a reason to extend him now rather than wait a year.

If Cook wants something closer to what Henry got (or more) Cook will have to make it through the year uninjured and have the kind of impact Henry had in his contract year. If Cook was able to do that it would be great for him. If he doesn't want to risk all of those millions of dollars on that bet he would be wise to sign a contract right now that is a meaningful concession from what Henry just signed -- something like you mentioned.

Personally, if I had only made $5MM in my life I wouldn't be able to turn down $22MM guaranteed on a four year extension worth $44MM. The upside of turning it down is getting maybe that $6MM extra that Henry got. The downside of the bet would be a possibility of getting nothing in case of devastating injury and having no marketable skills that would earn him more than maybe a few hundred thousand dollars a year.

If Cook is willing to take that bet and wins that is great for him. However, if he took that bet and lost millions it would be a real shame for him too. If he was my kid I would advise him to take the best deal he could get before camp unless the Vikings were extremely lowballing him with something like a two year extension at $16MM fully guaranteed and some option years averaging $10MM per year that would keep him from the free agent market beyond that.

 

[Cearbhall]

13 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

If Vikings & Cook agree before this season. 

$10M/$6M/$6M = $22M gaureenteed

$10M/$10M/$11M/$11M total 

4 year / $42M total / $22M G with $10.5M AAV

If I remember, I previously said around $10M AAV (with Gordons $8M as a negotiating figure), so the above contract would relatively be in line with that.

Do those numbers start this year? Like $8MM signing bonus, $2MM guaranteed in 2020, $6MM guaranteed in 2021, and $6MM guaranteed in 2022?

If so, the three year $40MM extension would be a bit richer than I would pay out. The $11MM average per year four year extension on top of his current $2MM contract this year would give a total of $46M on the five remaining years of his contract. That would be less than $10MM per year and more suitable IMO.

Edited July 16, 2020 by Cearbhall

[CriminalMind]

10 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

If he was my kid I would advise him to take the best deal he could get before camp unless the Vikings were extremely lowballing him with something like a two year extension at $16MM fully guaranteed and some option years averaging $10MM per year that would keep him from the free agent market beyond that.

And truth be told even if Minny lowball offer of 4 year / $36M total / $16M G with $9M AAV as you mentioned here, due to Cooks injury history, it's still a big risk to play without a multi-year deal. He'll prolly look at private insurance costs and weigh the pro/cons

[CriminalMind]

6 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

Do those numbers start this year? Like $8MM signing bonus, $2MM guaranteed in 2020, $6MM guaranteed in 2021, and $6MM guaranteed in 2022?

If so, the three year $40MM extension would be a bit richer than I would pay out. The $11MM average per year four year extension on top of his current $2MM contract this year would give a total of $46M on the five remaining years of his contract. That would be less than $10MM per year and more suitable IMO.

Hypothetically, this/my predicted contact would kick in after this season salary and a portion of the $22M would be paid in an immediate signing bonus now. 

[Cearbhall]

Just now, CriminalMind said:

Hypothetically, this/my predicted contact would kick in after this season salary and a portion of the $22M would be paid in an immediate signing bonus now. 

Okay. That is good and what I was thinking. Just checking. If nothing else, to clarify it for anyone that was thinking it was a three year $40MM extension.

I am glad that Henry signed so I no longer have to see crazy talk about the Vikings extending Cook to something close to what Carolina gave their RB. At least I hope I won't have to see more of that crazy talk. I suppose time will tell.

[swede700]

1 hour ago, Cearbhall said:

??

Right. you are saying pretty much what you said.  Cook would get a fair amount less than Henry if he agreed to an extension right now. Your reasoning was the same as mine, that he has a year left on his contract so has less leverage than Henry. @swede700 disagreed with that. He thinks that the Vikings should give Cook right now nearly what Henry just got. 

If Cook would agree to an extension with an average value of $11MM annually that guarantees him less than Henry was guaranteed I would think the Vikings would do that. That deal would put Cook on the books for ~$24MM over the next three seasons ($8MM average over that time) and give the team some affordable option years after that if Cook was still playing well. The option years would average no more than $11MM per year if the team paid out $22MM in the first two years of his extension. The Vikings should be happy to sign him to as many of those option years as Cook was willing to sign up for.

The threat of holding out is pretty weak. That should not be enough leverage for Cook to get the Vikings to extend Cook to almost the same package that Henry got. Cook would have to give up something from what Henry got so the Vikings would get something in return for signing him right now. The $6M over a four year extension at $11M average, as you suggest, would be that something that gives the Vikings a reason to extend him now rather than wait a year.

If Cook wants something closer to what Henry got (or more) Cook will have to make it through the year uninjured and have the kind of impact Henry had in his contract year. If Cook was able to do that it would be great for him. If he doesn't want to risk all of those millions of dollars on that bet he would be wise to sign a contract right now that is a meaningful concession from what Henry just signed -- something like you mentioned.

Personally, if I had only made $5MM in my life I wouldn't be able to turn down $22MM guaranteed on a four year extension worth $44MM. The upside of turning it down is getting maybe that $6MM extra that Henry got. The downside of the bet would be a possibility of getting nothing in case of devastating injury and having no marketable skills that would earn him more than maybe a few hundred thousand dollars a year.

If Cook is willing to take that bet and wins that is great for him. However, if he took that bet and lost millions it would be a real shame for him too. If he was my kid I would advise him to take the best deal he could get before camp unless the Vikings were extremely lowballing him with something like a two year extension at $16MM fully guaranteed and some option years averaging $10MM per year that would keep him from the free agent market beyond that.

 

I didn't disagree on that.  I disagreed with the notion that some people believe that he's worth no more than $8M per year and he should be grateful to even be offered that.  I don't consider $11M to be significantly less than what Henry got.  I've said since McCaffrey was signed that Cook should get in the $11M-$12M range (I was in the $10M camp before that)...which is pretty close to what Henry got.  I've been consistent on that...and Henry's deal, to me, confirms that belief.  

Edited July 16, 2020 by swede700

[Cearbhall]

1 hour ago, swede700 said:

I didn't disagree on that.  I disagreed with the notion that some people believe that he's worth no more than $8M per year and he should be grateful to even be offered that.  I don't consider $11M to be significantly less than what Henry got.  I've said since McCaffrey was signed that Cook should get in the $11M-$12M range (I was in the $10M camp before that)...which is pretty close to what Henry got.  I've been consistent on that...and Henry's deal, to me, confirms that belief.  

Thanks for clarifying for me. Since you were replying to me I assumed you were disagreeing with me, not disagreeing with the $8M per year camp. It is interesting to note that you do not consider $1.5M a fair amount. That is over 10%. What percentage less would you consider a fair amount less?

Late Add:

Swede, how much do you consider a little less than $12.5MM?  Would that be a couple hundred thousand? A couple million?

Edited July 16, 2020 by Cearbhall
Late Add

[wcblack34]

6 hours ago, Krauser said:

Henry’s extension came in at $50M/4. That $12.5M AAV will probably be the ceiling for the extensions for the rest of the second tier of RBs (including Cook), who are negotiating in the final year of their rookie contracts, not starting with the fully guaranteed $10M+ franchise tag that was the fallback for Henry.

Based on this deal, I think Cook will end up with an AAV around $11M, and less guaranteed money. 

The benefit for the Vikings is avoiding a holdout by their star RB — the current face of the franchise who’s making basically the same money as the punter. The leverage of extending him a year early should allow them to get him on a cheaper deal. 

But the new CBA essentially allows the Vikings to squat on his rights for an additional year if he holds out into the season, right? 

[Cearbhall]

10 minutes ago, wcblack34 said:

But the new CBA essentially allows the Vikings to squat on his rights for an additional year if he holds out into the season, right? 

I pretty much would ignore the threat of a holdout.  The real threat is having to deal with a potential malcontent. But that isn't a reason to sign him to a $12MM per year extension (or whatever swede considers to be a little less than $12.5MM. I suppose I should clarify that too as his meaning of relative distances between numbers isn't the same as mine).

Edited July 16, 2020 by Cearbhall

[Krauser]

29 minutes ago, wcblack34 said:

But the new CBA essentially allows the Vikings to squat on his rights for an additional year if he holds out into the season, right? 

Cook only has to play 6 games to earn an accrued season and finish his rookie contract.

It wouldn’t be great for the team to have him hold out for the first 10 games of what might be a down year anyway (soft rebuild etc). Can’t imagine Zimmer would be happy coaching for his job with Cook sidelined because the team refuses to pay him more than a 2-down nose tackle.

27 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

I pretty much would ignore the threat of a holdout.  The real threat is having to deal with a potential malcontent. But that isn't a reason to sign him to a $12MM per year extension

If he’s malcontented enough, Cook could skip training camp, preseason (if any) and the first 2+ months of the season. Avoiding a holdout is a reason to extend him this year instead of next year.

The fair price for an extension is a different question. I think the Henry deal shows the RB market has come down a bit (vs comparables like David Johnson and Leveon Bell), so I’m lowering my prediction for Cook’s extension accordingly ($11M-ish AAV instead of my original guess of $12.5M).

If you believe that RBDM, any premium contract is an overpay, regardless of the exact price. I’m sympathetic to the analytics argument but I don’t think the Vikings share it. I think they still see RB1 as a valuable position, and would invest a top draft pick to replace Cook if he left. So I think it will make sense for them to pay him, keep him happy this year, and lock him in for a lower price than open market value (cheaper than Bell, or even Henry). 

[SemperFeist]

“If Cook doesn’t show up for camp, a revised set of rules will apply, given the terms of the new labor deal. For starters, the daily fine has spiked from $40,000 to $50,000. More importantly, the new labor deal moves the deadline for losing a year of credit toward free agency from 30 days before the start of the regular season to the opening of camp.

As to Cook, this means that his shot at unrestricted free agency (or the franchise tag) in 2021 will be delayed by a year, if he fails to report for the start of training camp. The Vikings would instead be able to retain his rights for 2021 with a restricted free agency tender.”

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/06/09/new-cba-complicates-dalvin-cooks-planned-holdout/

[swede700]

1 hour ago, Cearbhall said:

Thanks for clarifying for me. Since you were replying to me I assumed you were disagreeing with me, not disagreeing with the $8M per year camp. It is interesting to note that you do not consider $1.5M a fair amount. That is over 10%. What percentage less would you consider a fair amount less?

Late Add:

Swede, how much do you consider a little less than $12.5MM?  Would that be a couple hundred thousand? A couple million?

I think $11M is a "little less" that $12.5M, as I'm not sure percentages are all that relevant when you're talking markets of millions of dollars (except when you're talking about money going out the door in taxes, but that's a story for a different site  )...this isn't statistics, where a 5% difference would likely be considered significant.  I think it'd be more in the range of 20-25% where you'd be talking about a significant difference(which would be $10M or below).  A 10% difference in salary in the NFL isn't all that different...that's like the difference between Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott.  If you go to 20%, that's the difference between Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo...and if you go even further to 25%, that's where you get guys like Derek Carr.

[Cearbhall]

15 minutes ago, swede700 said:

I think $11M is a "little less" that $12.5M, as I'm not sure percentages are all that relevant when you're talking markets of millions of dollars (except when you're talking about money going out the door in taxes, but that's a story for a different site  )...this isn't statistics, where a 5% difference would likely be considered significant.  I think it'd be more in the range of 20-25% where you'd be talking about a significant difference(which would be $10M or below).  A 10% difference in salary in the NFL isn't all that different...that's like the difference between Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott.  If you go to 20%, that's the difference between Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo...and if you go even further to 25%, that's where you get guys like Derek Carr.

Thank you for the clarification. That helps me understand what you have been saying. I have a vastly different opinion of what a little less is but that doesn't matter much now that I know what you were meaning. I didn't mention "significant" difference but thanks for letting me know what that means to you just the same.

It sounds like we agree that Cook's value right now is about $11M per year on the extension. Do we also agree on the guaranteed portion? That is on a four year extension "a little" less than $25MM, which would be about $22MM? 

That would put the total value of Cook's remaining contract at about $45M over the next five years. Paying him an average of $9MM per year on the remaining five year pact feels about right to me. That is even more true considering the first three years would be about $24MM, which is right around what I thought. That is $8MM per year over the years that are practically guaranteed. The options years after that are nice to have too.

Basically that would give Cook a three year $24MM contract that gives the team a couple option years as it would be pretty easy for the Vikings to get out of it after the third year.

 

Edited July 16, 2020 by Cearbhall

[CriminalMind]

If Cook decides to hold out for the early part of the season ... he runs the risk of Mattison performing well enough (where questions about "Is Cook actually needed" might pop up). The first half of the season looks to be easier than the second half, which makes that conversation potentially even harder for Cook. Cook could sit and could come back games 11-16, look bad and hurt himself for the next contract, and than $8M Gordon contract could potentially be his comparable (as a Free Agent to a new team)