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28 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

It sounds like we agree that Cook's value right now is about $11M per year on the extension. Do we also agree on the guaranteed portion? That is on a four year extension "a little" less than $25MM, which would be about $22MM?

That would be fair, in my estimation.  I think a lot of the talk in the past was somewhere in that neighborhood of that being guaranteed over 2 years.  I believe that several of us here are in the same ballpark, but there have been some that think he shouldn't be paid more than $8M per (in new money), if at all.  That I can't agree with.  He's better than Melvin Gordon money.  

Now, not to sound totally inconsistent, I've also been in favor in the past of letting him play out the contract first and then let him test the market and come back to them with a number, ala how they sort of handled Everson in the past.  But, once it was made clear that they intended on extending him, the $11M-$12M market is what I thought to be reasonable.  I was never really gung-ho either way, of either signing him long-term now or letting him test the market.  I find either one an acceptable option.  Now, if that ain't wishy-washy, I don't know what is.  xD  I guess I'm sort of in the camp with him as I was with Trae Waynes.  I like him on the team, but I'm also not going to be tremendously upset if he leaves.  

Edited by swede700
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3 hours ago, wcblack34 said:

But the new CBA essentially allows the Vikings to squat on his rights for an additional year if he holds out into the season, right? 

Yep yep. I pretty much would ignore the threat of a holdout.  The real threat is having to deal with a potential malcontent.

According to Article 8, Section 1.b of the new collective bargaining agreement:

Quote

A player shall not receive an Accrued Season for any League Year in which the player is under contract to a Club and in which (i) he failed to report to the Club’s preseason training camp on that player’s mandatory reporting date

 

Edited by Cearbhall
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2 hours ago, Cearbhall said:

It sounds like we agree that Cook's value right now is about $11M per year on the extension. Do we also agree on the guaranteed portion? That is on a four year extension "a little" less than $25MM, which would be about $22MM? 

Henry's guaranteed money isn't a good comparable. He was on the franchise tag, and so was already at $10M guaranteed, and effectively ~$23M guaranteed if he'd played on the tag and the Titans had franchised him for a second year, in 2021.

The Vikings don't usually give out big guarantees. Their last few homegrown players who extended long term (Diggs, Kendricks, Barr, Hunter) have all received under $20M guaranteed, even on deals that total $70M+. 

Those numbers can be a little misleading, as the contract structure (with the timing of dead cap hits) makes the contracts likely-to-be-earned for the first 2-3 years, but most of that money isn't truly guaranteed. 

Cook is quite likely to get less than $20M fully guaranteed at signing, but on a contract structured so that he will likely play at least through 2022 or 2023 on it (effectively a 2-3 year extension).

Here's a reasonable example: 

$46M/4 ($11.5M AAV) with $12M fully guaranteed: 

$12M signing bonus (counts $2.4M against the cap per year starting in 2020)
$4M salary for 2021
$7M salary for 2022
$11M salary for 2023
$12M salary for 2024

Cap hits / dead money would be 
2020: +$2.4M above current rookie contract
2021: $6.4M / (costs an additional $3.2M in cap space if released, $9.6M dead money)
2022: $9.4M ($7.2M dead money, opens $2.2M cap space if released)
2023: $13.4M ($4.8M dead, opens $8.6M if released)
2024: $14.4M ($2.4M dead, opens $12M if released)

Cook would be very likely to play on that deal through 2022, but quite likely to be released or renegotiated heading into 2023, or at least by 2024. 

Through 2022, it would be a $23M/2 extension ($11.5M AAV), with $12M guaranteed and $23M likely to be earned. The Vikings would have a $4.8M dead cap hit in 2023 to get out of the contract at that point, before 2023. 

Edited by Krauser
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@Krauser That all works for me and is about in line with what I have been thinking since the end of April after CMC was extended. Obviously, it isn't a problem if Cook agrees to less guaranteed money. It is up to him whether he wants to do that. $24.5MM over the next three years with $12MM guaranteed is a good offer that I would accept if I was him though I would definitely be pushing for additional guarantees in the first couple years.

Edited by Cearbhall
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Quote

 

10. Dalvin Cook Minnesota Vikings · RB

2019 stats: 4.5 YPC, 4.1 xYPC, +0.41 RYOE per attempt, 1,034 ERY, 101 RYOE

Cook's success, as we all know, came as a result of style blended with personal prowess. The Vikings committed to the zone run with Cook as their lead man and a line capable of opening lanes for him, and he took it the rest of the way on his own, scoring 13 rushing touchdowns (third-most on this list) and posting the only rush efficiency mark above 4 in this entire group (rush efficiency is the distance traveled by the ball-carrier on a run play divided by the net yards gained).

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/derrick-henry-among-top-10-rbs-exceeding-expected-rushing-yards

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Zimmer said in a press conference that he “totally” expects Cook to report to training camp on Tuesday with the rest of the Vikings veterans, adding that Cook had assured him personally.

 Vikings offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak said he was not concerned if Cook missed time beyond the virtual offseason.

Kubiak:  “Dalvin Cook is very bright.  He has as good a grasp as anyone on what we do and how we go about it. Dalvin could teach a class [on our offense] — he’s that bright and that smart of a football player.”

https://heavy.com/sports/2020/07/minnesota-vikings-dalvin-cook-holdout-status/?fbclid=IwAR14I081YuHN7DOKNedKIRR-8CP1KVUv12IrRWWCtN6CigjJ8zMclmNt9-Q

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I don’t believe the agent for a second. He just doesn’t like his client giving up the agent’s only form of leverage.

We’ve all read the parts of the CBA about players holding out. It’s a hollow gesture, and the repercussions aren’t something that Cook or his agent are likely wanting to deal with. 

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Its also potentially unclear what happens if Cook decides to not play "due to the COVID19 pandemic", can't see the NFL wanting to put negative deterrants on that.

So it's possible in internal meetings that is potentially further leverage for Cook agent to try and use.  Right now will be his peak earning potential for his career. 

Edited by CriminalMind
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20 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

Its also potentially unclear what happens if Cook decides to not play "due to the COVID19 pandemic", can't see the NFL wanting to put negative deterrants on that.

So it's possible in internal meetings that is potentially further leverage for Cook agent to try and use.  Right now will be his peak earning potential for his career. 

If Cook chooses to opt out he’ll receives a  $150k advance, and his contract tolls. 

Edited by SemperFeist
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Dalvin Cook‘s agent, Zac Hiller, now contradicts a report that Cool has told Vikings running backs coach Kennedy Polamalu that Cook will report for training camp this week.

“Dalvin and Coach Polamalu speak often as they have a great relationship,” Hiller told Adam Schefter of ESPN. “Dalvin has never mentioned to him anything in regards to reporting to camp. I’m not sure where the miscommunication is. I hope Dalvin plays a major role in the Vikings future success.”

It’s the latest bizarre twist in a bizarre day of contradictory back-and-forths. First, Vikings coach Mike Zimmer said Cook told Zimmer that Cook will be at camp. Then, Hiller disputed it. Then, NFL Media reported that Cook told Polamalu that Cook will show up for the start of camp.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/07/25/dalvin-cooks-agent-disputes-latest-report-that-cook-has-said-hell-report-for-camp/

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IMO, this sounds like an agent who’s trying to hang on to the last shred of leverage that he has  in negotiations. Almost makes me wonder if there isn’t a deal on the horizon. 

We’re heard coach speak from Zimmer before. Saying things like “those thing will work themselves out”, “we’re planning for him to be there”, etc. Zim has never appeared to be the coach who would say something that he doesn’t believe to be true, not when it comes to his players who whose relationships he values so much. 

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If Cook doesn't show up on time for training camp...on day 1, he will not get an accrued season.  It doesn't even matter whether he shows up on Day 2, if he doesn't show up on Day 1, he doesn't get an accrued season and he'd become a RFA.  He has to show up on time.  It doesn't mean he has to practice, but he has to show up.  That's why these might lead to "Hold-ins" instead of "Hold-outs".  

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PFT brought up the possibility that Cook could report to camp and tell the team he'll opt out of the 2020 season without a new deal. If I'm the Vikings, I'd be ecstatic about that. I don't think we're going to have anything resembling a full season this year. We've got 15 rookies who could basically redshirt when this season is canceled. We already have 12 draft picks next year, and the salary cap is going to go down. Cook would be in the exact same position next year, and the Vikings would still have him under the last year of his rookie deal.  

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