Teams in the QB market for 2018

[Iamcanadian]

On 9/11/2017 at 0:23 AM, FourThreeMafia said:

On 9/11/2017 at 0:12 AM, Iamcanadian said:

I look for as many as 5 QB's going in round 1 in the 2018 draft. Might even be 6???

It's a long list of desperate teams, but here goes:

1) Cleveland - Kizer is a career backup at best   -  Too early to say this about Kizer.   I dont think they should pass on an elite prospect if in position, though....

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From where he was drafted, he is far more likely to be a career backup than a franchise QB. Only 6% or less of second round QB's ever become franchise QB's.

2) Jets - Very desperate team needing a QB

3) Denver - Ditto

4) San Fran - Ditto

5) Arizona - Carson is done

6) Buffalo - if they ever want to be a playoff team

7) Jacksonville  - Bortles isn't the answer

8) Indy - if Luck is finished??? You can remove them if they believe Luck will eventually return and be close to the QB he was.  -  Huh?   Luck was great last year and there is no reason to believe this injury will ruin him.

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I really hope your right!!!

9) Cincy - Dalton is average at best  -   No way they will give up on Dalton.

 They might draft a QB, but it wont be round 1. 

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I see you understand the Cincy owner pretty well and I agree it is a longshot.

10) Minnesota - Bradford is just an average QB who cannot lead a team to the playoffs  -  They wont give up on Teddy so soon.

I

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If Teddy can ever play again???

11) New Orleans - Brees is nearing the end    

12) Houston - who knows what they have in Watson???   No chance they give up on a first round pick after 1 year, even if he isnt good.

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Fully agree, that's why they are so low on the list!!!

13) LA Rams - who knows if Goff will develop???  Too much invested in him to give up on him after 2 years.

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Again, you are likely right as long as he shows something!!!

14) Washington - depending on the Cousins situation  -  If the Skins lose him, a team listed above will likely sign him....probably the 49ers.

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True!

15) NE - depends on how they actually feel about Garoppolo and whether they can afford to keep him till Brady retires???  My guess is Garroppolo will either be tagged next year or starting for another team....depending what happens with Brady.

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The trouble with tagging him is, you would have to pay him a boatload of money to ride the bench and that certainly isn't BB's style.

 

Steelers, Chargers and Giants will all be looking for QBs soon as well.

You can always add teams with older veteran QB's or just really very average QB's, but I thought the list was getting a bit long in the tooth.

 

[thebestever6]

I don't know what is going on in Indy but I wouldn't mind fleecing an Irsay again for a franchise qb. 

Luck has taken 9 months to recover from a 6 month injury and no on talks about it. It's just an unknown right now.

Colts are in such dire need for talent and the whole league knows it. To make matters worse they're wasting a franchise qbs prime years. Say they land a huge haul next year its gonna take 2 to 3 years for them to develop.

Luck is gonna be well into his 30s by the time this thing works out. 

[thebestever6]

On 9/11/2017 at 0:57 AM, The LBC said:

6-10/7-9 is generally good for picking just outside the Top 10.  If you're outside the Top 10, you're generally giving up a future 1st to get inside it, particularly when it's for a QB.  In the Top 10, a 3rd buys you 1-2 spots max - and again, if the supply (of perceived "franchise QB" prospects) is smaller than the demand, the price escalates exponentially.  Because, again, it's not just convincing the teams that don't need a QB to let you trade into their spot, it's convincing them to pass on a blue-chip player at a position they (probably) could very much use on their roster in order to trade the pick to you and either hope that guy falls or hope someone comparable is available at the pick they get from you.

Also, sorry, but Trevor Siemian has nothing on Alex Smith - and I'm actually someone who isn't totally sour on Siemian.  But he's not Smith; Smith gets horrifically underrated.  If you're finishing 6-10/7-9 with Siemian, it's likely because your QB is Trevor Siemian.  Whereas, with Smith and your defense, I can see you guys threatening 9-10 wins and a Wild Card berth.  And if you can do that for a couple years while grooming a future starter, why wouldn't you do that?  It certainly makes holding onto the upper-echelon players you've got that want to compete while in their primes a good amount easier.

Other than experience and resume which is a large part due to having Reid/harbaugh and a talented roster what makes Alex Smith head and shoulders above Siemian?

Also when vying for a wild card spot what makes you think Smith can win games on the road to go deep into the playoffs. I just don't see it.

Smith is better than Siemian but it's still qb purgatory so why make that move? 

[Iamcanadian]

33 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I don't know what is going on in Indy but I wouldn't mind fleecing an Irsay again for a franchise qb. 

Luck has taken 9 months to recover from a 6 month injury and no on talks about it. It's just an unknown right now.

Colts are in such dire need for talent and the whole league knows it. To make matters worse they're wasting a franchise qbs prime years. Say they land a huge haul next year its gonna take 2 to 3 years for them to develop.

Luck is gonna be well into his 30s by the time this thing works out. 

If Luck comes back full strength, you'll be amazed at how high Indy finishes. They will become SB contenders by 2018 as they likely will draft higher since Luck will miss so many games. But, you are right, what is up with Luck??? Will he be the same talent when and if he returns. That's a total unknown!!!.

[Iamcanadian]

42 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

 

 

42 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Other than experience and resume which is a large part due to having Reid/harbaugh and a talented roster what makes Alex Smith head and shoulders above Siemian?

Also when vying for a wild card spot what makes you think Smith can win games on the road to go deep into the playoffs. I just don't see it.

Smith is better than Siemian but it's still qb purgatory so why make that move? 

It's kind of funny that everybody blames Smith for KC not advancing too far in the playoffs, when in fact Andy Reid has always had a pretty good regular season record, but not a whole lot of success in the playoffs. His WCO could be the reason, he has failed with some pretty decent teams, to win a SB. It's an outdated offense and teams today know how to defend it pretty well, unlike the years Montana/Young used it under Walsh and nobody knew how to defend it!!! Therefore, is it Smith or is it Reid who is the real problem???

For me, Sieman is a career backup, quite capable of winning a few games with a very solid defense, but sooner or later, comes apart as teams learn his weaknesses. This is the basic definition of a career backup. IMO, He has a very long way to go before you can mention him in the same breath as Smith.

[7DnBrnc53]

On 9/11/2017 at 10:18 PM, Bolts223 said:

Broncos: Is Lynch a bust? Is Trevor the answer?

Yes and possibly (after last night). 

[Soko]

On 9/10/2017 at 9:11 PM, marshawn lynch said:

While yes we are in the mix we will not have to grab a QB like some other teams on the list have to. Wr would just be in the mix because we have so many top draft picks that we can trade up and draft whomever we want. If we believe the best player in draft is a QB then we have ammo to go up and get him. But i dont think we will be im dire need to bring one in like other teams

Some of the teams being mentioned are very likely to end up with the top few picks. Browns, Jags, 49ers, Jets - why would any of these teams pass on taking a QB of the future? The only hope then would be that one of those teams is disinterested in the prospects.

Having the ammo is good and all, but you still need teams to trade with. Plus, it's very possible that the two first rounders will be passed 15, which I doubt would be enough to get into the top 3 on their own.

[Kmart128]

5 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

Some of the teams being mentioned are very likely to end up with the top few picks. Browns, Jags, 49ers, Jets - why would any of these teams pass on taking a QB of the future? The only hope then would be that one of those teams is disinterested in the prospects.

Having the ammo is good and all, but you still need teams to trade with. Plus, it's very possible that the two first rounders will be passed 15, which I doubt would be enough to get into the top 3 on their own.

There is always gonna be surprise team or two that makes it way into the top 8 that you wouldnt expect that have a good QB. Like last year Carolina, Bengals, and Chargers were all in the top 9. All 3 have decent QBs. How about in 2016 when the Ravens, Chargers, and Cowboys all were in the top 6. On paper yes those teams will be at the top of the draft but it never actually works out that way so lets not pretend that this season goes down exactly as it seems before the games are played.  Plus you never know who could get hurt... Russell Wilson could get hurt with all that bad oline play. Seattle gets a top 5 pick and wants to trade down and gain draft picks to completely revamp their oline. Point being you just dont know.

This year a team like the Colts could get a top 5 pick but they have Luck so they may be willing to trade down. And the Browns may prefer to just role with Kizer... they have been trading down and accumlating draft picks recently so thats another possibilty.

The past 2 years there has been 5 trades in the top 5 so lets not act like teams are not willing to wheel or deal. 

Its kinda funny. There was definetely some upsets and surprising results week 1 and you still think everything is going to happen based off preseason rankings.

[Iamcanadian]

9 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

Some of the teams being mentioned are very likely to end up with the top few picks. Browns, Jags, 49ers, Jets - why would any of these teams pass on taking a QB of the future? The only hope then would be that one of those teams is disinterested in the prospects.

Having the ammo is good and all, but you still need teams to trade with. Plus, it's very possible that the two first rounders will be passed 15, which I doubt would be enough to get into the top 3 on their own.

Yes, that is one of the fantasy's that prevail among a lot of inexperienced draftniks, 'that if you have a lot of high picks, you can automatically trade up for a QB. The trouble with that fantasy is that most teams drafting top 5 are QB desperate teams and when solid franchise QB's are at the top of the draft boards, those team will not trade under any circumstances, they will stay put and take the franchise QB for themselves.

This is why it can take a decade or longer to find a franchise QB for your franchise. It took Detroit 50 years to replace Bobby Layne with Stafford, so all the talk about simply trading up rarely works and even if you accomplish a trade up, as RG111 showed, it doesn't guarantee, the pick will turnout to be a star.There is only one true and tried method to get a franchise QB. You draft one every chance you get and pray he turns out well and if he flops, simply keep drafting QB's till one succeeds. Indy flopped with Jeff George, but it didn't make them hesitate when they got a second opportunity to draft another one and that turned out to be Peyton.

3 hours ago, marshawn lynch said:

There is always gonna be surprise team or two that makes it way into the top 8 that you wouldnt expect that have a good QB. Like last year Carolina, Bengals, and Chargers were all in the top 9. All 3 have decent QBs. How about in 2016 when the Ravens, Chargers, and Cowboys all were in the top 6. On paper yes those teams will be at the top of the draft but it never actually works out that way so lets not pretend that this season goes down exactly as it seems before the games are played.  Plus you never know who could get hurt... Russell Wilson could get hurt with all that bad oline play. Seattle gets a top 5 pick and wants to trade down and gain draft picks to completely revamp their oline. Point being you just dont know.

This year a team like the Colts could get a top 5 pick but they have Luck so they may be willing to trade down. And the Browns may prefer to just role with Kizer... they have been trading down and accumlating draft picks recently so thats another possibilty.

The past 2 years there has been 5 trades in the top 5 so lets not act like teams are not willing to wheel or deal. 

Its kinda funny. There was definetely some upsets and surprising results week 1 and you still think everything is going to happen based off preseason rankings.

Realistically, you have to be drafting top 2 to guarantee getting a shot at a QB provided there are 2 decent ones in any draft. The chances of a good team getting lucky and finishing that low, is pretty high odds. yes, it occasionally happens, but it is hard and rarely happens. Getting a top 8 or 9 or 6 pick guarantees you nothing when it comes to QB's.

Here's a scenario Cleveland could be faced with. Team finishing with the #2 overall pick is willing to trade down since they are satisfied with their current QB who was just injured bur will return next year. 6 or 7 teams are desperately trying to trade up and the offers are getting pretty huge. Cleveland pays 3 first rounds and a second rounder in 2019. Wentz goes on to be a star in his third season, so how does that haul look now when they could have just kept Wentz. They will in all likelihood end up paying more for the QB they eventually get than they got in the Wentz trade and will still have to wait 3 years to see if he succeeds.

Interesting, Cleveland may have lucked out when Garrett got injured as it vastly improved their chances of drafting 1/2 for the 2018 draft without having to trade up???

[Soko]

4 hours ago, marshawn lynch said:

There is always gonna be surprise team or two that makes it way into the top 8 that you wouldnt expect that have a good QB. Like last year Carolina, Bengals, and Chargers were all in the top 9. All 3 have decent QBs. How about in 2016 when the Ravens, Chargers, and Cowboys all were in the top 6. On paper yes those teams will be at the top of the draft but it never actually works out that way so lets not pretend that this season goes down exactly as it seems before the games are played.  Plus you never know who could get hurt... Russell Wilson could get hurt with all that bad oline play. Seattle gets a top 5 pick and wants to trade down and gain draft picks to completely revamp their oline. Point being you just dont know.

This year a team like the Colts could get a top 5 pick but they have Luck so they may be willing to trade down. And the Browns may prefer to just role with Kizer... they have been trading down and accumlating draft picks recently so thats another possibilty.

The past 2 years there has been 5 trades in the top 5 so lets not act like teams are not willing to wheel or deal. 

Its kinda funny. There was definetely some upsets and surprising results week 1 and you still think everything is going to happen based off preseason rankings.

Sure, it could workout that way. But history disagrees. 

2017: Browns, 49ers, Bears, Jaguars, Rams.

2016: Titans, Eagles, Chargers, Cowboys, Jaguars.

2015: Buccaneers, Titans, Jaguars, Raiders, Redskins.

2014: Texans, Rams, Jaguars, Bills, Raiders.

2013: Chiefs, Jaguars, Dolphins, Eagles, Lions. 

Those are the top 5 picks of the last 5 years, in order. A vast majority of those teams had QB issues in the year prior. The only teams we can pretty definitively say would pass on a blue chip QB prospect - which is what this draft is expected to have - is the 2013 Lions, 2016 Titans, and 2017 Rams. The latter two, only because those teams just recently invested high draft capitol on a QB. Every other team could have justifiable need for a young, franchise QB. 

A lot could happen. The Browns could sucks but Kizer show enough to warrant another year. Bortles could rebound. Colts could bomb to top 5 in Luck's absence. A QB dependent team could suffer an injury. But history shows that teams picking in the top 5 are usually teams with major issues at QB, and in a draft that may have some high caliber QB prospects, it's far from a given that a team without the most draft ammo (hello, Cleveland) will be able to maneuver as they please. 

 

[BroncosFan2010]

Denver doesn't need a QB. Siemien is the answer, for now. Not HOF but he will prove to be good enough. In the Alex Smith, Matt Hassellbeck, David Garrard mold. Unless we end with a chance at a top tier R1 guy (Darnold, Rosen) or Brees somehow is an option, I think Trevor stays as the starter going into 2018.

[Thomas5737]

22 minutes ago, Iamcanadian said:

Indy flopped with Jeff George, but it didn't make them hesitate when they got a second opportunity to draft another one and that turned out to be Peyton.

That's true and I commend them. Not many teams will draft a QB when the QB they just drafted 8 years earlier, who went on to play for Atlanta and currently plays with the Raiders, showed the potential of George. Sure he hasn't been on the roster for 5 years but most G.M.'s would still stand by that pick and not take a Peyton Manning in the draft.

[Reginaldm9]

41 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

That's true and I commend them. Not many teams will draft a QB when the QB they just drafted 8 years earlier, who went on to play for Atlanta and currently plays with the Raiders, showed the potential of George. Sure he hasn't been on the roster for 5 years but most G.M.'s would still stand by that pick and not take a Peyton Manning in the draft.

I was heartbroken when we drafted Kizer. It truly meant that the Brady Quinn era was over. 

[BroncoSojia]

5 hours ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

Denver doesn't need a QB. Siemien is the answer, for now. Not HOF but he will prove to be good enough. In the Alex Smith, Matt Hassellbeck, David Garrard mold. Unless we end with a chance at a top tier R1 guy (Darnold, Rosen) or Brees somehow is an option, I think Trevor stays as the starter going into 2018.

How can you say this with so much confidence? He looked OK Monday. Fans have glossed over his dropped pick6 and the numerous avoidable sacks he took. Let's give it a few more games before we start anointing him.

[BroncosFan2010]

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How can you say this with so much confidence? He looked OK Monday. Fans have glossed over his dropped pick6 and the numerous avoidable sacks he took. Let's give it a few more games before we start anointing him.

I have simply always been a believer in Trevor, at least when you look at the other available options. Again, if we are bad enough to get a top pick we should target a franchise QB. But I want to avoid taking a middle to late round R1 QB like the plague. That is historically a zone with crazy bust rates for QB. Every year is different, but the elite talents will be gone after pick 10 most likely, especially with so many teams needing a QB.

And the majority of the sacks Trevor took were due to extremely quick pressure off the edge, most notable the right side where Watson looks horrid in protection. There was relatively little he could do.