If you didn't think Joe Burrow was a 1st rounder last year, why would you think he's one this year?

[jrry32]

On 12/10/2019 at 2:32 PM, VanS said:

In the last 2 years I would say Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. 

You're right that its rare to find elite tools and intangibles.  Its why I don't rate a QB as an elite high first round talent every year.  Greatness is rare.  Its not something that comes around every year.

Josh Allen is a mediocre QB chiefly because arm strength and athleticism aren't close to everything.

[VanS]

2 hours ago, Jlowe22 said:

Prime Brees didn't have a weak arm.  And he wasn't all that unathletic.  He didn't have elite arm strength, or elite athleticism, but in his prime he had plenty enough zip on the ball, and he was quicker moving around in the pocket than guys like Peyton or Brady. 

In any case, his attributes like timing, accuracy, anticipation, command of the offense, etc were more than enough to get the ball into tight windows without needing a very strong arm.  I would rather take someone with elite accuracy and average arm strength over elite arm strength and average accuracy.  And Brady and Peyton should, if anything, help support the notion that elite athleticism is not at all necessary to be an elite QB.  

And it's not that you're banking on guys without elite tools being elite, it's that you're banking on guys with elite traits like accuracy being able to succeed at a high level without having elite traits like arm strength.  

I personally feel accuracy is a buzzword people use when they want to like a QB or when they don't.  Its not really quantifiable despite what the stat sheet says.  And even when it comes to the eye test people will disagree as to whether a QB is accurate.

Just look at Lamar Jackson.  Everyone who didn't like him before the draft said it was because he lacked accuracy.  The stat sheet seemed to support that notion given his completion % was below 60%.  Now fast forward to his 2nd year in the NFL and I'm not hearing a peep about his accuracy being an issue anymore.   Why is that?  Did he learn how to be accurate all of a sudden?  Or was it never really an issue for him and all his naysayers were wrong?

I was in the minority that thought his accuracy was plenty good enough to make him an effective NFL passer given how dangerous he was as a runner.  I'm not saying accuracy isn't important but its BY FAR the most difficult trait to project at the next level.  How many people saw Patrick Mahomes being as accurate as prime Aaron Rodgers in the NFL?   Or how about Josh Allen being more accurate that most draft prognosticators thought?  And then you have Josh Rosen who was allegedly an accurate QB who can't even beat out Ryan Fitzpatrick as a second year QB?

All I'm saying is that betting on or against a QB based on accuracy is not that smart.  Its the toughest trait to really get a grasp on.  And I rarely mention it when evaluating a QB because its become nothing more than a buzzword now with no real credibility behind it. 

[VanS]

1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

Josh Allen is a mediocre QB chiefly because arm strength and athleticism aren't close to everything.

He's a 2nd year QB leading his team to playoffs with arguably the least weapons on offense of any team in the league right now with 9+ wins.  There's a lot of time left in his career to determine exactly what he'll be.  With that said, most NFL people would disagree with you.  From what I've seen most of TV analysts seem to like his development thus far and think he'll be a good franchise QB.  

[Jlowe22]

2 minutes ago, VanS said:

I personally feel accuracy is a buzzword people use when they want to like a QB or when they don't.  Its not really quantifiable despite what the stat sheet says.  And even when it comes to the eye test people will disagree as to whether a QB is accurate.

Just look at Lamar Jackson.  Everyone who didn't like him before the draft said it was because he lacked accuracy.  The stat sheet seemed to support that notion given his completion % was below 60%.  Now fast forward to his 2nd year in the NFL and I'm not hearing a peep about his accuracy being an issue anymore.   Why is that?  Did he learn how to be accurate all of a sudden?  Or was it never really an issue for him and all his naysayers were wrong?

I was in the minority that thought his accuracy was plenty good enough to make him an effective NFL passer given how dangerous he was as a runner.  I'm not saying accuracy isn't important but its BY FAR the most difficult trait to project at the next level.  How many people saw Patrick Mahomes being as accurate as prime Aaron Rodgers in the NFL?   Or how about Josh Allen being more accurate that most draft prognosticators thought?  And then you have Josh Rosen who was allegedly an accurate QB who can't even beat out Ryan Fitzpatrick as a second year QB?

All I'm saying is that betting on or against a QB based on accuracy is not that smart.  Its the toughest trait to really get a grasp on.  And I rarely mention it when evaluating a QB because its become nothing more than a buzzword now with no real credibility behind it. 

Accuracy is complicated sure, and there's more to it than just hitting a bullseye on a target, but it's extremely important nonetheless.  Comp% is only half the story, and not the best measure of accuracy.

Scouting is hard in general, regardless of whatever traits you prioritize.  But the point is, a guy can be elite in areas other than athletic ability and see that translate to elite QB play.  And arguably, those traits are even more important. 

There's not some magic system that turns unathletic guys into hall of famers.  Sure, some systems fit abilities better than others, but the same is true for Lamar Jackson, Mike Vick, or anyone else.

[jrry32]

8 minutes ago, VanS said:

He's a 2nd year QB leading his team to playoffs with arguably the least weapons on offense of any team in the league right now with 9+ wins.  There's a lot of time left in his career to determine exactly what he'll be.  With that said, most NFL people would disagree with you.  From what I've seen most of TV analysts seem to like his development thus far and think he'll be a good franchise QB.  

The Bills defense is leading the team to the playoffs. They're 3rd in YPG allowed and 2nd in PPG allowed. Their offense is 20th in PPG and YPG. And that's with the benefit of playing a very weak schedule. They're 9-4 with only one win over a team with a .500 or better record (Tennessee in a 14-7 victory before Tannehill became the starter). Allen is playing like a mediocre QB right now. And I laugh at you claiming most NFL people disagree with me. You don't know any NFL people. You have no basis for that claim.

[jrry32]

20 minutes ago, VanS said:

I personally feel accuracy is a buzzword people use when they want to like a QB or when they don't.  Its not really quantifiable despite what the stat sheet says.  And even when it comes to the eye test people will disagree as to whether a QB is accurate.

Nothing in evaluating is truly quantifiable. It's laughable to call accuracy a "buzzword" for that reason. And there will always be some disagreement over individual players. You're stating things that are common to player evaluation.

[BACK2MACKSACK]

Looks like Joe has come a long way from starring in Home Alone.

[VanS]

1 hour ago, Jlowe22 said:

Accuracy is complicated sure, and there's more to it than just hitting a bullseye on a target, but it's extremely important nonetheless.  Comp% is only half the story, and not the best measure of accuracy.

Scouting is hard in general, regardless of whatever traits you prioritize.  But the point is, a guy can be elite in areas other than athletic ability and see that translate to elite QB play.  And arguably, those traits are even more important. 

There's not some magic system that turns unathletic guys into hall of famers.  Sure, some systems fit abilities better than others, but the same is true for Lamar Jackson, Mike Vick, or anyone else.

All I'm saying is most people were saying Lamar Jackson wasn't an accurate passer before the 2018 draft while Josh Rosen was.  Even I would've agreed with the notion Rosen was MORE accurate than Lamar before the draft.  How did that working out so far?  My argument is that its safer to bet on tools and intangibles than it is to bet on the guy who you think is some wizard when it comes to accuracy. 

With regard to Josh Rosen, I'm probably one of the few people who hasn't totally given up on him.  I actually saw some of these struggles happening early on if he was stuck on a team with a bad offensive line and a lack of playmakers at the skill positions.  Guys like Josh Rosen who bring accuracy and not much else need pieces around them to succeed.  Put Josh Rosen on  a team like the Saints with a great offensive line, great skill position players, and a genius offensive coach and I think his career goes very differently.  A guy like Lamar Jackson on the other hand might lack Rosen's accuracy but he's more than makes up for it with generational athletic gifts that have essentially changed the way the Ravens play.  The Ravens are now an offensive juggernaut not because he's more accurate than Rosen but because he has the athletic gifts to raise the talent around him rather than needing those around him to make it possible for him to show off his accurate passing.

 

[VanS]

1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

And I laugh at you claiming most NFL people disagree with me. You don't know any NFL people. You have no basis for that claim.

Do you not have a television set?  There are plenty of former players and coaches talking football everyday on the various sports channels.  Most of them have been very complimentary of Josh Allen this year.   They're not talking about him the way you are.  They talk about him as being a franchise QB for the Bills.

Edited December 15, 2019 by VanS

[VanS]

1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

Nothing in evaluating is truly quantifiable.

Size, strength, and speed all seem to be pretty quantifiable.  Sure there are guys who play faster than they time but in general physical traits can be quantified.  That's why they do the combine every year.

[jrry32]

14 minutes ago, VanS said:

Size, strength, and speed all seem to be pretty quantifiable.  Sure there are guys who play faster than they time but in general physical traits can be quantified.  That's why they do the combine every year.

Not really. Some guys play faster. Some guys play slower. Same with strength. Size isn't meaningful on its own. The Combine is more useful on the drill work and interviews than the measurables.

[jrry32]

18 minutes ago, VanS said:

Do you not have a television set?  There are plenty of former players and coaches talking football everyday on the various sports channels.  Most of them have been very complimentary of Josh Allen this year.   They're not talking about him the way you are.  They talk about him as being a franchise QB for the Bills.

You're talking about entertainment, not real evaluating.

[Jlowe22]

13 minutes ago, VanS said:

All I'm saying is most people were saying Lamar Jackson wasn't an accurate passer before the 2018 draft while Josh Rosen was.  Even I would've agreed with the notion Rosen was MORE accurate than Lamar before the draft.  How did that working out so far?  My argument is that its safer to bet on tools and intangibles than it is to bet on the guy who you think is some wizard when it comes to accuracy. 

With regard to Josh Rosen, I'm probably one of the few people who hasn't totally given up on him.  I actually saw some of these struggles happening early on if he was stuck on a team with a bad offensive line and a lack of playmakers at the skill positions.  Guys like Josh Rosen who bring accuracy and not much else need pieces around them to succeed.  Put Josh Rosen on  a team like the Saints with a great offensive line, great skill position players, and a genius offensive coach and I think his career goes very differently.  A guy like Lamar Jackson on the other hand might lack Rosen's accuracy but he's more than makes up for it with generational athletic gifts that have essentially changed the way the Ravens play.  The Ravens are now an offensive juggernaut not because he's more accurate than Rosen but because he has the athletic gifts to raise the talent around him rather than needing those around him to make it possible for him to show off his accurate passing.

 

I haven't watched Rosen much, but from what I have watched, he doesn't look like he processes the game very quickly or efficiently.  It doesn't matter how accurate you are if you don't know where to throw, or when to throw, or who to throw to, or whos blocking who, or who is coming free, etc.  

 

[SmittyBacall]

2 hours ago, VanS said:

They're not talking about him the way you are.  They talk about him as being a franchise QB for the Bills.

They're not talking about him the way you are, either. Being a franchise QB isn't the same as being elite, which you claim Allen to be. In fact, I haven't heard one other person, on this site or any platform, make the same claim.

[VanS]

4 hours ago, Jlowe22 said:

I haven't watched Rosen much, but from what I have watched, he doesn't look like he processes the game very quickly or efficiently.  It doesn't matter how accurate you are if you don't know where to throw, or when to throw, or who to throw to, or whos blocking who, or who is coming free, etc.  

 

Or his offensive line isn't giving him enough time and/or his receivers aren't getting seperation hence his struggles.

Its easy now after the fact to try to explain why Rosen is struggling or why Lamar is succeeding.  However, its another to predict it.  I don't mean to toot my horn but I first guessed this.  I thought Lamar would have the most success early on of any of the QBs in the 2018 draft because his generational athleticism would raise those around him.  While I was concerned about Rosen's lack of mobility hurting him early on if he went to a bad team.

Just look at how open the receivers in Baltimore are every game.  Or how about the holes the RBs like Mark Ingram are running through.  That's all because of Lamar Jackson and how much fear his athleticism puts on a defense.   He doesn't need amazing accuracy to hit his receivers running wide open down the middle of the field.

In terms of pure passing Rosen is better than Lamar.  But we don't get to see it because his supporting cast is subpar.  Only QBs with elite physical traits can carry subpar talent around them.  And that's why I always put a premium on those traits over something like accuracy.