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VanS

If you didn't think Joe Burrow was a 1st rounder last year, why would you think he's one this year?

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The elevation of Joe Burrow from a guy nobody talked about 6 months ago to the potential #1 overall pick is pretty funny.  Especially when you consider that he's going to turn 23 years old in a month and is currently older than LAMAR JACKSON.

My question to the Joe Burrow fans on here:  If you watched Joe Burrow last year and didn't see him as anything special, why would you think he deserves to be a 1st round pick this year or even crazier the #1 overall pick?  Did his arm get stronger? Did he get faster?  Did he start making throws you never seen before?  Or is he simply the beneficiary of a new system and better skill position players around him?

Production changes from year to year.  Traits don't.  At least not this much (i.e. taking a guy from UFA to the #1 overall pick).  I'm not saying a player can't improve from one year to the next.  I'm just saying we typically don't see these jumps happen from a player's redshirt junior to redshirt senior year.   College athletes typically make their biggest jumps from their first to second year in college.

 

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It's a bit early to say that he's a #1 overall pick, but he's thriving in a system that has its roots in the Gulf Coast Offense. I don't think anybody who watched Burrow last year thought he lacked the size, athleticism, or arm strength to be a NFL QB. However, he was a first-year starter playing in an archaic offense. Even then, he wasn't awful. He showed promise. In a modernized, pro-style offense, he's tearing it up this year. So yes, I think it's quite reasonable to look at his accuracy, decision making, physical traits, leadership traits, and mental acuity and see a guy who has the goods. Frankly, Van, you're offering a ridiculous opinion.

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I think he's looked good  I've watched a decent amount of his game this season or the ones that mattered anyways,  Auburn, Florida, Alabama...  In those games he has definitely shown he has the tools to be an NFL qb.    I know he doesn't have the quads or the fast 4.5 40 that's required of an NFL qb but he has the other traits.

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Who else stands out early at QB? The #1 QB will likely be either Burrow or Taglavoia and with the way teams are about QBs, one should be #1 overall.

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2 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Frankly, Van, you're offering a ridiculous opinion.

How so?  I'm simply staying with the opinion I had of Joe Burrow watching him last year.  Which was that he was nothing special.  Now I'm watching the LSU/Alabama game and folks are comparing him to Tom Brady.  I just find these knee jerk reactions to one year of production funny.

Its similar to how Baker Mayfield got all that love last year and is now getting called trash.  I never really fell for his success last year cause I'm of the belief that eventually talent gives way.  Great coaching and a good scheme can give you a breakout season.  But talent determines long term success.  Joe Burrow doesn't look like the sort of talent that warrants being a high 1st round pick.  Just as Baker Mayfield didn't.

Talent always supercedes short term production in my book.

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Just now, SteelKing728 said:

Who else stands out early at QB?

Nobody.  This is a really weak QB draft.  And weak overall.

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1 hour ago, VanS said:

How so?  I'm simply staying with the opinion I had of Joe Burrow watching him last year.  Which was that he was nothing special.  Now I'm watching the LSU/Alabama game and folks are comparing him to Tom Brady.  I just find these knee jerk reactions to one year of production funny.

Its similar to how Baker Mayfield got all that love last year and is now getting called trash.  I never really fell for his success last year cause I'm of the belief that eventually talent gives way.  Great coaching and a good scheme can give you a breakout season.  But talent determines long term success.  Joe Burrow doesn't look like the sort of talent that warrants being a high 1st round pick.  Just as Baker Mayfield didn't.

Talent always supercedes short term production in my book.

There is nothing good about the arguments you are making. You're ignoring the film of Burrow that doesn't confirm your preconceived notions, and you feel vindicated in doing that because of Baker Mayfield? Wow.

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This isn't Drew Lock, who played in the same system for 4 years.

This isn't Daniel Jones, who played in the same system for 4 years.

I am also somewhat concerned by the late success - early success is the most reliable of NFL predictors, when combined with NFL-level skills.   Burrow won't have that.  But there's clear context here.    Burrow's now in a pro-style O for the first year - and thriving.   He's faced elite competition the last 2 years now - and this year, in the pro-style O, he's thriving.  And unlike some teams, LSU is running the gauntlet of good competition.    Which should become "great" if he keeps this up vs. Georgia & the BCS (LSU doesn't even need to win out, just keep showing this kind of placement/anticipation and pocket awareness, and man...).

Burrow's rise is also mixed in with the fact that  A.) the rest of the QB draft class except Tua has really struggled (Eason, Herbert) or likely to stay in school (Fromm)  and  B.) Tua comes with major injury risk Q's now with a 2nd straight tightrope procedure.     Add in that the need for QB has suddenly gone way up with Cam's decline, and Mariota flaming out, it's easy to see why Burrow is getting so much love.

Burrow's late rise will mean he won't be a consensus 1.1 pick.   But if it's CIN or MIA on the clock, QB will be front and center.  It's not crazy to say Burrow could pass Tua.  Tua's skills are undeniable, but his health flag is now more than just projection - it's real.   That matters a lot.

 

Edited by Broncofan

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23 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Tua's skills are undeniable, but his health flag is now more than just projection - it's real.   That matters a lot.

Miami is the only team top 5 imo that can take a gamble on Tua because they stocked their cupboard with picks to get him what he needs very early. Other than that I just don't see a team Selling out for him.

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How many quarterbacks have gone 13-13 (the first ball to hit the ground was PI) against a Nick Saban coached defense? How about the ball placement on the fade early 1st quarter where he fit it in between the corner and safety not impressive? 

If the accuracy wasn't impressive just watch his helmet. His eyes work so quickly through progressions. He never gets hung up on a read. 

Comparing anyone to Tom Brady is a stretch but I have no doubt Joe Burrow is an NFL starter. I need to watch more to figure out his ceiling, this is the first LSU game I've caught this year, but he's at least a Jimmy G caliber NFL QB. 

If my Dolphins get Tua or Burrow I'll be happy

 

Edited by tannenballs

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2 hours ago, tannenballs said:

How many quarterbacks have gone 13-13 (the first ball to hit the ground was PI) against a Nick Saban coached defense? How about the ball placement on the fade early 1st quarter where he fit it in between the corner and safety not impressive? 

If the accuracy wasn't impressive just watch his helmet. His eyes work so quickly through progressions. He never gets hung up on a read. 

Comparing anyone to Tom Brady is a stretch but I have no doubt Joe Burrow is an NFL starter. I need to watch more to figure out his ceiling, this is the first LSU game I've caught this year, but he's at least a Jimmy G caliber NFL QB. 

If my Dolphins get Tua or Burrow I'll be happy

 

His throwing motion and stance are nearly identical to Brady. Of course it’s difficult to compare anyone to a 6-time Super Bowl winner who is arguably the GOAT. But there are tons of technical similarities. 

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The kid beat Texas on the road this year, Florida, Auburn and now Alabama on the road.  Four wins against top 10 ranked programs.

What is different about him this year to last?  Well he is more accurate with the football obviously and is running a pro style system that is used with the Saints in the NFL.  Is able to spread the ball around, handle himself in the pocket and be athletic enough to get away from trouble.  Is a little too tough for his own good though, needs to slide at times but is a competitive kid and hard to not like that and his teammates love him.

 

On a big stage he put himself on the map if he was not already with his play, he is shooting up draft boards because of how he has played.  I had him as a mid to late round prospect coming into the season, but this year he has played some great football and has been as good as any QB in college football.  Now is he better than Tua?  A guy who threw for 400 yards and was basically limping around near the end of that game, not sure about that but still Burrow has been great.  Is he the #1 pick, no Chase Young is but Burrow could easily go top 5 and over take Herbert at least even though Herbert is arguably more talented and has more of a upside.

 

Same thing happened to Quinnen Williams last year as a RS SOPH, not on my individuals radar for that 2019 draft in September, had an amazing year and his stock just rocketed up despite a great DL draft class around.  He out played those guys and was drafted higher than them because of it.  Similar with Burrow even though he is a RS SR and not as under the radar like Williams being a RS SOPH only, but solid last year and showed some ability but his play this season has been outstanding with the new system and he shows a lot of next level ability as a QB.

 

Now maybe it is just Joe Brady having that great of a system that college teams cannot handle and makes him look better than he is. But heck worst case he will still be a 1st round pick just by the Saints alone based on how well he runs this type of passing system.

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I mean, it IS fair to point out that Burrow looked talented last year for LSU, but it was inconsistent just because the offensive scheme as a whole wasn't very successful. He DID do as asked though. He looked pretty good against Auburn last year. Definitely outplayed Stidham by a mile in that game.

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He is a way better Jarrett Stidham who instead of regressing his last year as become a heisman hopeful. Teams don't care much about what he did or didn't do the previous 4 seasons. They only care that he now looks like NFL QB. If Trubisky can go #2 overall with a handful of gametime experience then Burrow as fifth year guy can go in top 5. 

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But but but Burrow had a better passer rating his Junior year than Josh Dobbs did... threw for more yards and one more TD. And now he has done this his Senior year...

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