Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

Well. Bright side. Ben easily won that completions prop and TJ Watt may have just guaranteed DPOY with that performance. 

That Najee run was the difference in +/-2U. Just brutal. The Browns should be embarrassed by the effort tonight. 

[Broncofan]

On 1/2/2022 at 9:11 PM, Broncofan said:

OK along with the big 35U parley (2nd hit at +7000 or better in 2 weeks>(and only play 2-3 for less than 5 percent of my total bets>),  a reasonable day thanks to some weighted bets coming through...

ATS/ML/RACE - 3-1 ATS/ML with CIN +200 ML, and LAC -6 (at 4U was a pure gift, and yes, Covid-aided - but it was there for 3+ days at 6.5, too), and PHI -3.5.   LAR -3.5 was the only play that missed straight-up (thank goodness I took the ML in the parley lol).   RACE was 1-0 with CIN +550 to 30 hitting (20-25 missed), so that's a total profit of 8.3U profit in single bets alone here, with CLE -3 pending, but add the 7-leg parley, and it's a 42.3U profit (count the other 2 missed parleys here).

PLAYER PROPS - 3-8, going 1-2 on the 2U plays, so that means I'm -5.0U here.    The QB TD props killed me here, way it goes because they're all plus money, and 50-50 plays (or maybe 60-40, but at decent plus money).   

LONGSHOT TD - 0-5 (Higgins / Bryant still left MNF) no joy here, but they were all longshots.   So far, -4.0U with those 2 players pending.

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 17 NOT INCLUDING SNF/MNF 

ATS 55-43; 14-18 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +120.3U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win, and then Week 16/17 parley with MIA-3 Week 16 MNF / DAL ML hoops / Georgia -7 NCAAF / PHI / TEN / LAR / CIN ML for +7000 0.5U). 

Player props - 155-153, +31.7U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-80 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +30.7U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +182.7U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 - +29.3U Week 17 to SNF - +31.1U)

 

 

 

 

On 1/3/2022 at 12:50 AM, Broncofan said:

For tomorrow, 4 back-to-basics props (1 ML, 3 player) & 2 holdover TD props:

CLE ML -110  EDIT MON noon - +130 2U, added RACE to 20/25 +180/+320 (0.5U) - I know CLE being eliminated takes away their playoff incentive, and Big Ben's last game at 3 Rivers is here.   But I'll back the better team, and hope that Baker doesn't screw this over with a 2+ TO differential.   If CLE leans on the run game, and keeps Baker out of trouble, I think they win something like 30-20.  EDIT:   Line's moved from -3 to +2, and now ML is +130 - crazy that it's all narrative driven.   Going 2U.

Jarvis Landry O4.5 catches - pretty simple, he's still a target hog.

Diontae Johnson O6.5 catches +110 - one thing Big Ben isn't doing - is handing off all game long.   And that's not how you attack CLE's D anyways.

Najee Harris U70.5 rush yards - this is a way of doubling my CLE ML bet - CLE is a tough run D to begin with, and I expect Big Ben to throw a lot.  But it's also an even better play if CLE does win, far less likely Harris gets here.

My TD props are unchanged from before:
 

Rashad Higgins +650 TD / +8000 2+ (0.7U/0.1U) - top WR target, not DPJ or Landry.  Tackled at 1 last game otherwise this would be at least +350 or lower.

Harrison Bryant +1200 TD / +12500 2+ (0.6U/0.1U) - I get it, there are 2 TE's in front of him, but he actually gets 30+ percent of snaps, and more pass looks, he's actually ahead of Njoku in targets and RZ looks, but Njoku is +500.   

With the extra parley winnings, I can also add a 0.5U SGP of the CLE ML / Big Ben INT / Harris U70.5 rush yards / Harris O3.5 catches / Diontae O6.5 catches / Friermuth O30.5 rec yards / Landry O4.5 catches for +6000.   That makes this a total of 6.0U 8.0U in play for tomorrow - BOL!

 

14 hours ago, Broncofan said:

CLE now +130 - I took the 10 percent loss, and reloaded this for 2U (so it's going to be a +125 win if I do win).   We've seen a 5-pt swing in the line solely because CLE is now eliminated from the playoffs, and PIT is playing their last home game for Big Ben.  That's a VERY iffy reason for the line to move that much, and so I'm happy to take the prior fave pre-narrative at plus money.  CLE's run game vs. PIT's run D, and CLE's pass rush vs. PIT's OL (and the CLE secondary is ironically getting all their guys back finally).   

Added the RACE to 20/25 for +180 / +320 as well.   So that's 8.0U now in play.  BOL!

 

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Got Anthony Schwartz +1200 TD / +12500 2+ TD for 0.6U / 0.1U given beat reporter speculation he'd see more snaps.

 

Well, the ATS/ML/RACE plays were huge duds - thanks Kevin Stefanski for deciding the CLE run game and Nick Chubb weren't worth using vs. the Pitt rush D and instead letting Bad Baker take 6 sacks and 2 picks vs. the PIT pass D.    0-1 ATS/ML, 0-1 RACE, so -3.0U loss.

Player prop-wise, 1-2, some bad luck with Jarvis Landry stuck on 4 catches after the 1H, but that's the risk with Bad Baker.   Najee Harris U70.5 was a massive whiff, part with taking CLE.   Diontae Johnson O6.5 catches was an easy hit at +110, but with the extra 0.5U SGP (showing the issue with parleys risk-return wise), that's a -1.4U loss.

Fortunately, my TD props, while I miss with Anthony Schwartz +1200 (not really close at all, although he got his snaps), and Rashad Higgins +700 was missed with 2 EZ targets (so can't complain, he got his shot) - that same drive, my other big longshot, Hunter Bryant, hits at +1200 (0.6U).   With the 0.8U & 0.7U total losses with Schwartz/Higgins, I still net a nice +6.2U profit, and putting me in the black +1.8U for MNF.  Given how badly CLE ML/RACE & Harris U70.5 missed, I'll take it.

This caps off another VERY profitable week at +32.9U, albeit the 6-leg +7000 0.5U parley hitting for a 34U profit is the reason it's a big week (still, they all count).   Hoping we can have a great Week 18 to get over the 200U profit line!

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 17 NOT INCLUDING SNF/MNF 

ATS 55-44; 14-19 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +117.3U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win, and then Week 16/17 parley with MIA-3 Week 16 MNF / DAL ML hoops / Georgia -7 NCAAF / PHI / TEN / LAR / CIN ML for +7000 0.5U). 

Player props - 156-155, +30.3U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-80 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +36.9U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +184.5U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 - +29.3U Week 17 to SNF - +32.9U)

Edited January 4, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

58 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Well. Bright side. Ben easily won that completions prop and TJ Watt may have just guaranteed DPOY with that performance. 

That Najee run was the difference in +/-2U. Just brutal. The Browns should be embarrassed by the effort tonight. 

As long as Watt can get to the NFL record, that may indeed push him over the edge.   Parsons also getting DROY will help siphon off votes.    Great value.   

REALLY tough break on the TD swinging bets.   I know league finals changed winners in season long leagues based on that (Twitter is running amok with those stories lol).   For the high it gives the winner, that's a crushing L for the runner up.

Edited January 4, 2022 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

Wasn't expecting the Browns to abandon the run game against one of the worst run defenses in the league, incredible.

[SaveOurSonics]

Watt now -700 for DPOY. Vrabel now +200 for COY. Really liking the direction for both of those futures. 
 

Considering still playing Burrow CPOY at +105. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by SaveOurSonics

[Broncofan]

With the latest Covid news - I'm going to go back to the well and take CLE +140 ML and RACE to 20/25 (+180/+320), but only for 1U & 0.5U RACES.

Ironically, I feel better with Case Keenum at QB - and I don't like Case Keenum at all.  Bad Baker is just that awful right now.   I don't assume Chubb will play, but the CIN team is absolutely decimated, so I'm happy to take +140 on what I think is a toss up match at best, if not a CLE favorite now with Burrow almost certainly sitting.

The line would move massively to CLE if Burrow was declared out, so I'm going to take that shot now.   It helps in my situation I can void bets, so take it FWIW.

 

 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

CIN about to announce Burrow out.   If you want plus money on the Baker less Browns (who I believe are better off right now ) you don’t have much time.  

Edited January 5, 2022 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

With Derrick Henry expected back for playoffs, anyone else like the Titans to win the AFC (+450) and possibly the SB (+1200)?

KC and BUF seem like the likeliest AFC contenders, and TEN has already beat them both. It obviously also helps that they are sitting on a bye. I just wish the odds were a bit juicier. Both lines feel a little low.

Thoughts? 

[SmittyBacall]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

CIN about to announce Burrow out.   If you want plus money on the Baker less Browns (who I believe are better off right now ) you don’t have much time.  

Good call. I didn’t get on this, but l did end up cashing out my CIN ML bet at 25% profit after the Mixon news hit.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

With Derrick Henry expected back for playoffs, anyone else like the Titans to win the AFC (+450) and possibly the SB (+1200)?

KC and BUF seem like the likeliest AFC contenders, and TEN has already beat them both. It obviously also helps that they are sitting on a bye. I just wish the odds were a bit juicier. Both lines feel a little low.

Thoughts? 

I like the idea of betting the field vs. KC/BUF, just keep in mind that Henry is unlikely to be close to game shape in 2.5 weeks (think of it like coming off TC, but not being able to get into game shape).   It's still really good to have him back, but it's almost backwards - the TEN chances to win improve if they can get further into the playoffs.   But they'll be ironically most vulnerable their first week.

My recommendation if you want to go TEN - bet BOTH the Titans & the team that TEN faces in the Division weekend.   I would imagine the opponent would have higher odds than TEN's +1400 now.  Take TEN now, and hedge with a 2nd bet on the opponent they face.     Half your stake in TEN and leave the other half for their opponent if you don't want to increase your risk. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

There are no player lines out yet, but this is a week to be REALLY careful on over bets for player props.   Basically, there are only 3 player types I'm willing to bet overs on this week:

-Players on teams who will go hard for 60+ minutes

-Players with records/incentives that are well past the O/U number

-Players who aren't coming back Week 1 from Covid

And...I still want the matchup / gamescript to make sense. 

A few players come to mind and lines I'd target if they come out there or lower:

-Cooper Kupp O7.5 catches /99.5 yards or better - he needs 12 catches and 135 yards to get the WR catch/yard record, and 171 to get to 2K yards.    Kupp's on record as saying it's not the same to get the record in 17 games, but vs. the SF secondary, it may not matter.   Anything of O7.5 or even O95 yards, I'm willing to take.   

-Jonathan Taylor O105 or better  the team's 8-1 when he runs for 100+ yards, and JAX's run D is an easy way to seal an IND win.   After bad Wentz showed up last week, it's not hard to see this.  Taylor also needs 266 to get to 2K, but I don't think IND is going to force feed him with a playoff game the next week.   Any prop of O105 or more, though, I'll go with.

-D'Onta Foreman O50.5 or better - HOU's run D is their weakness, and with Derrick Henry back at practice, I'm sure the books will drop Foreman's totals down.  I would hammer this prop the moment it comes out, hopefully before GD actives are announced.   Because I don't have any belief Henry would take many snaps, not while he's literally just started practicing (I think he's more likely to be inactive).   This is a huge opp IMO to hammer an easy layup line - now Vegas might get wise and not drop a line until Sun GD's are announced. 

-Rashad Penny O70.5 or better - ARI's run D is their most vulnerable area since JJ Watt got hurt, and we know Pete Carroll will shorten the game, to try and end the season on a high note.   Penny's been on fire, and I'd be looking at any prop that's 70 yards or less.   I don't worry about losing PT, because Pete Carroll never has gone the "play rookies final week" routine before, and frankly, there's no one really worth talking a look at on SEA's end. 

-Diontae Johnson O6.5 catches - PIT is still alive, and BAL's secondary is torched.    They can still rush the passer, so getting rid of the ball early makes the most sense.   BAL's rush D is a problem, so that's even more reason to think Diontae J gets his catches.  As we saw from last week, though - I wouldn't be so sure of the yards.   EDIT:  Damn you Covid-19.

-Amon St-Brown O5.5 catches - he's been a target machine the past 4-5 games since Hock & Swift were knocked out (Swift's back, but it still continues).   If it's 6.5, it's a little iffier, but 6+ catches is a lock IMO.  HC Dan Campbell stresses going all-out for the W each week, and this is actually one week where the outcome is likely moot anyways (DET W doesn't move them down draft spots, and it seems a stretch to predict JAX victory).

None of the props are out, but those are the ones I'm looking for right away.  I'll probably put 5-6 of those together for a single 0.5U parley too.

 

ATS/ML/RACE

As for Sat's card, I'm going to go with KC -9.5 and DAL -4 (and I'd take -7).   Philly is going to rest a TON of guys.    Dallas still can get the 2 or 3 seed with LAR/TAM loses, and DAL/PHI is already a bad matchup personnel/style wise.    Wish Parsons was playing.  I took DAL -4 right away thinking PHI was going to sit guys, obv the line's already jumped - but I'd still go there  (EDIT:  Taking DAL out with the Covid outbreak news).   As for KC-DEN, it's just a matter of KC needing to secure the 2 seed, and zero chance they'll look past this game given their L in CIN.    Stylistically, I thought DEN could hang and keep it a 1-score game last time - I was dead wrong.  And while Drew Lock allows the O to be a little more freewheeling - it also is WAY more mistake prone.     KC's D just torches mistake-prone O's.  As long as Mahomes keeps it TO-neutral, I think this is a 31-13 type game. 

Sunday matchups I'm very interested in the dog (already took CLE ML/RACE to 20/25 )

-PIT ML +200 @ BAL - I know BAL will play hard, they're at home, and PIT's O was terrible on MNF.  Thing is, BAL's secondary is non-existent and their pass game is struggling.    PIT starting to get healthier too.   The obvious way BAL wins is to lean on their run game, and then force Ben into mistakes.   But Lamar being out makes the run game less potent, and we've covered the problem with the BAL pass D.   This should be closer to a 50-50 matchup IMO (just like how the first game went down), so give me plus money.  Won't take RACE's, as I'm not sure it's high scoring at all. EDIT:  Damn you Covid-19.

-DET +4 vs. GB - this one is contingent on Jared Goff playing.   I would expect A-Rod to play no more than 1 half.   I can't back Tim Boyle, but Goff & the DET D playing tough, I can see a cover or even 2H comeback.   FWIW, I don't think GB gets any of their injured key guys back this week, which also factors in.     I'll regret waiting if GB announces anything, but waiting to see if Goff plays is crucial here.

-MIA +240 ML / +6.5 vs. NE - this is more of a gut feel call, in that if BUF is up big on NYJ early, BB is pulling starters at halftime.   Even if he didn't, MIA's D does offer the +TO potential that may swing the game.  But we've seen BB rest his guys many times in past years - he obviously won't until he sees there's nothing to gain.   But I do think BUF dismantles NYJ, and if that's the case, this could be a big in-game swing.    I also think there's a live in-game betting opp - if BUF is up big on NYJ, then taking the halftime MIA ML at even better money if they are trailing but close, could be a huge unique opportunity.  Something to watch for.

 

I have taken KC -9.5 and CLE ML +140 / RACE to 20/25 (+180 / +320) as a single bets and taken a 0.5U KC -9.5 / PHI +6.5 / WFT -7 / DET +4.5 / MIA ML / LAC -3  6-leg parley at +8200 (lol YOLO).  The LAC bet allows me to hedge too on SNF, if the other 5 legs are alive.   

 

The player lines aren't out, but thought I'd put what I'm looking for on paper, if ppl agree, then they know what to look for.    

Edited January 6, 2022 by Broncofan
DAL prop removed with Covid outbreak news coming in

[SmittyBacall]

20 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

There are no player lines out yet, but this is a week to be REALLY careful on over bets for player props.   Basically, there are only 3 player types I'm willing to bet overs on this week:

-Players on teams who will go hard for 60+ minutes

-Players with records/incentives that are well past the O/U number

-Players who aren't coming back Week 1 from Covid

And...I still want the matchup / gamescript to make sense. 

A few players come to mind and lines I'd target if they come out there or lower:

-Cooper Kupp O7.5 catches /99.5 yards or better - he needs 12 catches and 135 yards to get the WR catch/yard record, and 171 to get to 2K yards.    Kupp's on record as saying it's not the same to get the record in 17 games, but vs. the SF secondary, it may not matter.   Anything of O7.5 or even O95 yards, I'm willing to take.   

-Jonathan Taylor O105 or better  the team's 8-1 when he runs for 100+ yards, and JAX's run D is an easy way to seal an IND win.   After bad Wentz showed up last week, it's not hard to see this.  Taylor also needs 266 to get to 2K, but I don't think IND is going to force feed him with a playoff game the next week.   Any prop of O105 or more, though, I'll go with.

-D'Onta Foreman O50.5 or better - HOU's run D is their weakness, and with Derrick Henry back at practice, I'm sure the books will drop Foreman's totals down.  I would hammer this prop the moment it comes out, hopefully before GD actives are announced.   Because I don't have any belief Henry would take many snaps, not while he's literally just started practicing (I think he's more likely to be inactive).   This is a huge opp IMO to hammer an easy layup line - now Vegas might get wise and not drop a line until Sun GD's are announced. 

-Rashad Penny O70.5 or better - ARI's run D is their most vulnerable area since JJ Watt got hurt, and we know Pete Carroll will shorten the game, to try and end the season on a high note.   Penny's been on fire, and I'd be looking at any prop that's 70 yards or less.

 

 

 

As for Sat's card, I'm going to go with KC -9.5 and DAL -4 (and I'd take -7).   Philly is going to rest a TON of guys.    Dallas still can get the 2 or 3 seed with LAR/TAM loses, and DAL/PHI is already a bad matchup personnel/style wise.    Wish Parsons was playing.  I took DAL -4 right away thinking PHI was going to sit guys, obv the line's already jumped - but I'd still go there.   As for KC-DEN, it's just a matter of KC needing to secure the 2 seed, and zero chance they'll look past this game given their L in CIN.    Stylistically, I thought DEN could hang and keep it a 1-score game last time - I was dead wrong.  And while Drew Lock allows the O to be a little more freewheeling - it also is WAY more mistake prone.     KC's D just torches mistake-prone O's.  As long as Mahomes keeps it TO-neutral, I think this is a 31-13 type game. 

 

[Nozizaki]

24 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

 

Would you lean back the other way and look at Philly to cover? With all the guys out for Philly I still don't understand how they slow the Cowboys down and keep things close. Maybe the game is ugly without Tyron Smith?

[Broncofan]

32 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

 

Being offerred plus money to take out DAL -4, going there.  I'm subbing out DET +4 instead of DAL -7.    Thx for the heads up!

Edited January 6, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

8 minutes ago, Nozizaki said:

Would you lean back the other way and look at Philly to cover? With all the guys out for Philly I still don't understand how they slow the Cowboys down and keep things close. Maybe the game is ugly without Tyron Smith?

If you are doing it, do it now.  The line is PHI +6.5.   I expect a massive swing, 4-5 pts.     

It's almost certainly going to be DAL vs. PHI backups now - lol @ it being a SatNF matchup.