Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

OK so the alt lines are out, so I'm now taking 3.5U plays on the following:

1.  D’onta Foreman o51.5 rush yds 2U, 70+ rush yds +240, 90+ rush yds +520 0.5U FD - DEN run D def vulnerable.   

2.  Terry Mclaurin o60.5 Rec yds 2U DK, 80+ rec yds +200, 190+ rec yds +400 0.5U FD - Taylor Heinecke loves him he’s had 8 targets 4 of last 5 games (7 in the other one).   ATL gives up 9 targets / 90 yds per game to WR1.   

3.  Treylon Burks O40.5 rec yds, 60+ rec yds +220, 80+ rec yds +520 0.5U FD - with CIN's top 3 CB's out, and DJ Reader back, I expect TEN won't be leaning just on Derrick Henry, so I think the breakout continues for Burks.

I'm not yet on 3.5U plays, but I did add the following:

4.  James Conner O63.5 rush yds 2U FD - the only reason I'm not hitting 80+ / 100+ alt lines is just to make sure Kyler Murray is active - because his playing opens up the run game, and yet he's likely to run less coming off a hammy injury.

Player props I’m still waiting to target - Michael Carter Rec yds vs CHI; Josh Palmer Rec yds (@ ARI) ; Rachaad White rush TD props vs. CLE ; Jeff Wilson rush props vs. HOU.   And for MNF, I'm definitely going to be on Pat Freirmuth rec yds against IND (with no Leonard and hurting safeties) if his line is in mid-40's, and hammer the 60/80 alt line prop.

 

As far as TD props....the late & prime times were released, and holy **** Batman, a bunch of opps came up that I have to take a stab at, namely:

LATE

6&7.  Brandon Bolden +2100 & Jakob Johnson +1900 0.5U each FD - everyone is on the news that Josh Jacobs to hammer the lines on Ameer Abdullah and Zamir White - so there's no value.  But with the committee, there's no guarantee those are the guys near the RZ - so taking near +2000 stabs on the all-purpose Bolden, who McDaniels trusts a ton, and the FB Johnson, I'll go 0.5U each and hope we see a zigzag play (and especially since it's McD, that's always possible).

8.  Jody Fortson +750 FD - Juju's back, but Hardman/Toney are out.   And again, we see 12 formation a ton.   We know Fortson's a guy they like to match up...gotta take this. 

9.  Juwan Johnson +410 / +4300 2+ 1.2U/0.3U FD - other books now have Juwan at +200 or less.  I won't complain, I'll just KEEP HITTING THIS.

MNF

10.  Pat Freirmuth +380 / +3500 1.2U / 0.3U FD - since Claypool got traded, he's become the top target.  I can't believe the yard / TD props are so juiced.  Without Darius Leonard and losing Kwitty Paye, the Colts D is particularly vulnerable to the TE since.    Hammering this.

 

Updated the card above, it's already at 10U for TD props, and the 5 player props already come in at 14.5U, and out of the 4 left, at least 2 are going to be 3.5U plays, with the others 2U plays...so yeah, we're at 25.5U and counting, with likely 10U more to come.   So that's probably it for me...until SNF/MNF lol.   Hopefully the value evals I see pan out as hoped.  BOL!

[Broncofan]

Michael Carter's prop just came out - O19.5 rec yds on FD.   Honestly, that's a 4U play given Mike White's willingness to check down.

 

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

36 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Michael Carter's prop just came out - O19.5 rec yds on FD.   Honestly, that's a 4U play given Mike White's willingness to check down.

Gotta think his receptions will be in play as well.

[thebestever6]

walker Is at 77 yards versus the raiders that seems nice.

[Trojan]

I made a single DK lineup for the week and liked it:

QB: Kyler Murray v. Chargers
RB: Jeff Wilson v. Texans
RB: Rachaad White v. Browns
WR: DeAndre Hopkins v. Chargers
WR: Keenan Allen v. Cardinals
WR: Courtland Sutton v. Panthers
TE: Trey McBride v. Chargers
FLEX: Kenneth Walker III v. Raiders
DST: KC Chiefs v. Rams

I started building it wanting Kenneth Walker against LV after seeing his bad stats, but heavy involvement last week. Wilson doesn't have Mostert as a threat to leach, and it's Houston's D. White has Fournette likely out and the Browns can be run on. I then wanted Keenan Allen since Mike Williams is out, and once that was in place a Kyler + Hopkins + long shot on the rookie TE with Ertz out in a theoretical passing situation looked solid to me. Sutton just because price fit, opportunity, and maybe Russ figures his life out at some point. KC is cheap and the Rams have been a big disappointment + are injury riddled.

That said I'm constantly losing, so you may want to avoid everyone I picked.

[Broncofan]

28 minutes ago, Trojan said:

I made a single DK lineup for the week and liked it:

QB: Kyler Murray v. Chargers
RB: Jeff Wilson v. Texans
RB: Rachaad White v. Browns
WR: DeAndre Hopkins v. Chargers
WR: Keenan Allen v. Cardinals
WR: Courtland Sutton v. Panthers
TE: Trey McBride v. Chargers
FLEX: Kenneth Walker III v. Raiders
DST: KC Chiefs v. Rams

I started building it wanting Kenneth Walker against LV after seeing his bad stats, but heavy involvement last week. Wilson doesn't have Mostert as a threat to leach, and it's Houston's D. White has Fournette likely out and the Browns can be run on. I then wanted Keenan Allen since Mike Williams is out, and once that was in place a Kyler + Hopkins + long shot on the rookie TE with Ertz out in a theoretical passing situation looked solid to me. Sutton just because price fit, opportunity, and maybe Russ figures his life out at some point. KC is cheap and the Rams have been a big disappointment + are injury riddled.

That said I'm constantly losing, so you may want to avoid everyone I picked.

Kyler may be playing, but he's still not likely to be 100 percent off a hammy injury.   I got burned with David Njoku last week, and frankly, Kyler needs his legs even more than Njoku to be successful.   I don't like spending big $ on key positions where the guy's coming off injury - rather have him prove it.

Depending on Sutton means you're depending on BOTH the DEN OL to hold up, the DEN coaches to call a good game, and Russell Wilson to avoid struggles.   I get the price is very tempting, but I would look elsewhere.   

I have no idea the price diff between Murray and Herbert, but I'd be tempted to go Herbert / Allen / Josh Palmer instead of Kyler / Sutton - that way you have the 3 Chargers and the Nuk / Mcbride correlation play.  If the $ doesn't quite work, spend down on D - it's a crapshoot anyways.    Don't know if taking Moreau instead of McBride helps - also allows you to correlate Walker III.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Gotta think his receptions will be in play as well.

Rhamondre vs MIN and this game are 2 situations where I would be hammering the B365 reception milestones like crazy if I wasn't restricted there.  Bastards.  

Again I must re-post this...

 

 

[thebestever6]

Dang Likely is out I was excited for that wager for you.

[Trojan]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Kyler may be playing, but he's still not likely to be 100 percent off a hammy injury.   I got burned with David Njoku last week, and frankly, Kyler needs his legs even more than Njoku to be successful.   I don't like spending big $ on key positions where the guy's coming off injury - rather have him prove it.

Depending on Sutton means you're depending on BOTH the DEN OL to hold up, the DEN coaches to call a good game, and Russell Wilson to avoid struggles.   I get the price is very tempting, but I would look elsewhere.   

I have no idea the price diff between Murray and Herbert, but I'd be tempted to go Herbert / Allen / Josh Palmer instead of Kyler / Sutton - that way you have the 3 Chargers and the Nuk / Mcbride correlation play.  If the $ doesn't quite work, spend down on D - it's a crapshoot anyways.    Don't know if taking Moreau instead of McBride helps - also allows you to correlate Walker III.

I made a second one based off your idea to switch to Herbert:
QB: Justin Herbert
RB: Rachaad White
RB: Jeff Wilson
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Josh Palmer
WR: Treylon Burks
TE: Mark Andrews
FLEX: Kenneth Walker
DST: KC

Plays the same RBs I was excited for, but ditches ARI players for LAC and upgrades the TE to Andrews by fading Hopkins for Treylon Burks

 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Trojan said:

I made a second one based off your idea to switch to Herbert:
QB: Justin Herbert
RB: Rachaad White
RB: Jeff Wilson
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Josh Palmer
WR: Treylon Burks
TE: Mark Andrews
FLEX: Kenneth Walker
DST: KC

Plays the same RBs I was excited for, but ditches ARI players for LAC and upgrades the TE to Andrews by fading Hopkins for Treylon Burks

 

If you want to really go yolo - Everett TE instead of Andrews & Nuk instead of Allen.   ARI is awful against TE and you gain the Nuk volume plus you correlate the game.  

[adamq]

Teagan Quitoriano +1600 betmgm

Kyle Allen at qb, I wouldn't be surprised to see them pass more than some expect and Big Q has been taking over the TE spot there

 

Thinking about Howard at +850 too

[KhanYouDigIt]

Whatever Lamar rushing yards is at, hammer the over.

[Malfatron]

27 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

Whatever Lamar rushing yards is at, hammer the over.

53.5

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, adamq said:

Teagan Quitoriano +1600 betmgm

Kyle Allen at qb, I wouldn't be surprised to see them pass more than some expect and Big Q has been taking over the TE spot there

 

Thinking about Howard at +850 too

That's an outstanding call - I can only get Quitoriano +1200 / +12000 2+ at DK but I'm taking 0.9U/0.1U given the snap share is literally him at #1.  It replaces my Likely +800 (voided with inactive).   Props - BOL!

Edited November 27, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

So the other props are out and I’m really going hard this weekend (gulp): 

LATE 

Josh Palmer o57.5 Rec yds 2U DK - when Keenan Allen plays and Mike Williams doesn’t - Palmer goes off.   Sad that FD doesn’t have alt lines here.   

Justin Watson +700 SI - this one's a crazy line, because the books elsewhere have him at +200 or less.   The 2+ TD prop is like +1500...including THAT book.   Think someone was sleeping at the wheel. 

SNF 

Aaron Jones o3.5 catches +100 DK 2U - I do think PHI wins - so that’s an autobet. 

MNF

Pat Friermuth o43.5 rec yds DK 2U, 60+ rec yds +180 & 80+ +400 FD 0.5U - he’s the top target and those numbers are just too low.   Definitely another high confidence play.  
 

So this is one insane stake - 25U on player props and 11U on TD (gulp).   Let’s have a big Week 12! 

Edited November 27, 2022 by Broncofan