Weekly Bets Thread

[JaguarCrazy2832]

35 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

I find it hard to not buy Detroit. They ended the season on an absolute terror and got way better in the off-season. The Vikings losing Cook is a hit to them and it's still Cousins and the Vikings lol. They are certainly the biggest threat to the Lions though IMO. Don't see much coming from GB and Bears in terms of getting the division

I mean yea Cousins and Minny…but Goff and Detroit doesn’t exactly give me a warm n fuzzy. Considering the price is like a 3:1 difference id be curious about Minny. Likely wont have anything on that division though.

[N4L]

On 6/18/2023 at 5:47 AM, SmittyBacall said:

One longer shot I like - @JaguarCrazy2832 might appreciate this - is Doug Pederson to win COTY at +2000.

The AFCS is wide open, and if Trevor Lawrence ascends to who we think he can be, I see a world where the Jaguars can win 11 games and a playoff game or two (who knows). We saw what they were capable late last year when they almost knocked off the Chiefs. Also I just like Pederson and think he’s a good coach.

When I look at other favourable names on the list I don’t see many that jump out to me.

COTY is a weird award. I learned my lesson on that one last year. It's more about narrative than anything else. So I think this is something better wagered on during the season.

Doug may be deserving, but the jags were already a playoff team last year and he was third in the voting I believe. They are expected to take another step, and meeting expectations doesn't get you COTY, you have to exceed expectations. 

+2000 is a good number though. It is just a moderately unpredictable award. I thought Kyle Shanahan should have won it last year. He lost two QBs in the regular season and went on a 10 game win streak, with 6 of those wins coming with Mr irrelevant. He was 5th in voting or something. 

I think taking first year HCs can make sense though. It's easier for the voters to see the big turnaround that way. Stiechen and DeMeco Ryans would be two guys I'd be interested in. What are the lines? 

[Ray Reed]

I heard on the radio today that Terry McLaurin’s TD o/u for the season is…3.5??

Whats up with that number. I know it’s Howell but still.

[BobbyPhil1781]

4 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I mean yea Cousins and Minny…but Goff and Detroit doesn’t exactly give me a warm n fuzzy. Considering the price is like a 3:1 difference id be curious about Minny. Likely wont have anything on that division though.

I get the Goff reservations but he did have arguably the best season he's had as a pro last year. Cousins is just, whatever lol. He's so damn schizo and his running game took a hit. Can Mattison run the show back there? I don't think so but he's a solid compliment. This division will certainly be interesting. 

[BobbyPhil1781]

1 hour ago, Ray Reed said:

I heard on the radio today that Terry McLaurin’s TD o/u for the season is…3.5??

Whats up with that number. I know it’s Howell but still.

I looked on FD for these and couldn't find it. I'd be all over this to be honest

[JaguarCrazy2832]

8 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

I get the Goff reservations but he did have arguably the best season he's had as a pro last year. Cousins is just, whatever lol. He's so damn schizo and his running game took a hit. Can Mattison run the show back there? I don't think so but he's a solid compliment. This division will certainly be interesting. 

Again you say Cousins is whatever but can you honestly be 3x more confident in Goff? If it was +200 for both teams to win that division then sure but its like +140 to +300 for Detroit/Minny. I feel like buying Detroit now is buying Goff at the high point. Now I know it isnt all Goff, Detroit is better everywhere except WR/TE probably. Detroit probably should be the favorite but I just dont like the price. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

9 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

I heard on the radio today that Terry McLaurin’s TD o/u for the season is…3.5??

Whats up with that number. I know it’s Howell but still.

A quick google of his totals, I mean his last 3 years where he started 17-17-15 games with 120-130-134 targets he got 5-5-4 TDs. That wins the bet obviously but I would assume they get more from the TEs and Dotson this year, it should still cash but with pretty perfect health he barely cleared the over. 

The last 3 years they had 24-21-16 pass TDs and McLaurin had 20.8%, 23.8% and 25% so even if Howell is the low end you'd think he could get 4 but man the weapons the 2 years he had 5 were abysmal and he barely cleared it when Dotson was there

[JaguarCrazy2832]

9 hours ago, N4L said:

COTY is a weird award. I learned my lesson on that one last year. It's more about narrative than anything else. So I think this is something better wagered on during the season.

Doug may be deserving, but the jags were already a playoff team last year and he was third in the voting I believe. They are expected to take another step, and meeting expectations doesn't get you COTY, you have to exceed expectations. 

+2000 is a good number though. It is just a moderately unpredictable award. I thought Kyle Shanahan should have won it last year. He lost two QBs in the regular season and went on a 10 game win streak, with 6 of those wins coming with Mr irrelevant. He was 5th in voting or something. 

I think taking first year HCs can make sense though. It's easier for the voters to see the big turnaround that way. Stiechen and DeMeco Ryans would be two guys I'd be interested in. What are the lines? 

Idk I actually think COTY is relatively easy bc its all narrative/media based. Its all about expectations.

Guys like Reid, Mcdermott, Taylor and Sirianni wont win unless they go 17-0 because they are expected to be great.

If Shanahan has Darnold all year and goes like 14-3 it could be him but if Purdy starts week 1 and they go 14-3 then everyone will say that was somewhat expected because Purdy is Brady 2.0

Daboll won last year, McDaniel, Pederson and Carroll all widely exceeded expectations so there likely isnt another big leap for them and McDaniel is almost too tied to Tua, if Tua is healthy he will win something before McDaniel. 

Regardless of how good Dallas actually is, there have too many expectations for them to win imo unless they go crazy plus McCarthy....lol

BB would need to resurrect Mac Jones back to rookie 1st half levels and then some which im not sure is enough because just repeating 2021 isnt exactly COTY material.

Saleh probably wont get the credit because they brought in Rodgers and he will get the rub first

Everyone knows Harbaugh is a good coach with an electrifying QB. If they dont 15-2 maybe but that likely means Ljax is healthy and goes off...and probably means he is moreso MVP than a COTY candidate for Baltimore. 

Stefanski likely wont win because his QB is Watson and I find it hard to believe for the media to get behind him. Watson could throw for 5000 and rush for 1000 to a 17-0 record and people will still feel dirty about voting Cleveland

I like Demeco alot and have thru his whole playing career but I dont love the upside in Houston. They would likely need to make the playoffs or be serious playoff contenders

Josh McDaniels will need to have a healthy Jimmy-G and not lose big leads in the 4th quarter...pass

Staley and the Chargers are always considered to be good and Herbert wildly considered elite so there likely isnt another level to jump unless they win the division which is dont see happening

Mike Tomlin and Mike Vrabel are both 2 of the best HCs in the NFL at getting something from nothing. Tomlin probably has the better team but a tougher division. Exceeding expectations might be within reach but winning the division might be tough

Gannon shouldnt even be trying to win this year

Reich is an interesting one, I really like Young but I dont love the weapons he has so I find it hard to believe they will be competitive enough to win this award. 

McVay is a SB winning HC and health is the biggest enemy. He has to exceed prior expectations, not just 2023 ones

I have no faith in Bowles or the Baker/Trask-led Buccs

O'Connell and the Vikings could improve as a team but have a worse record given the 1 score regression to the mean

Rivera I think has too much of an uphill battle in the division plus the unknown at QB

Dennis Allen is the favorite to win the division and its very winnable but much like the Vikings last year, I'm not sure anyone will mistake them for a good team

 

If the Bears go 10-7 and Fields looks improved as a passer, and Chicago makes the playoffs Eberflus could be the guy

Everybody loves a comeback story and if Sean Payton can make Russell Wilson look like a pro-bowl QB again, they might not even have to beat KC for the West for him to win. Was there a bigger laughing stock than Russell last year? its a gross bet but 

Shane Steichen's path to winning is 100% tied to Richardson being Jalen Hurts right out of the gate. Its a long shot but everyone loves highlights and Richardson is a walking highlight. Winning the division will be tough but a playoff spot isnt completely out of the realm of possibility and the Richardson/Hurts narrative with the Steichen link is there for articles. 

Arthur Smith is doing things differently which is a narrative in itself. If somehow Ridder can be average, an offense with Pitts-London-Bijan could be alot of fun and the defense improved enough to where the division is winnable. 

Is there a more lovable knee-cap biting HC than Dan Campbell? Yes the Lions are favored to win the division which hurts the exceeding expectations but they missed the playoffs last year and its been so long since they made it, winning the North might be enough considering they are everyone's favorite former-doormat. 

If Matt LaFleur can somehow win the North and finish with more wins than the Rodgers-led Jets he could win this one in a landslide because the narrative is too juicy. Jordan Love is a shiny new toy no one really expects alot out of and the Packers have alot of pieces in place to prop him up. 

Yea 6 is alot and I'm not even betting them but it was a fun thought exercise.

You probably didnt even bother to read it all which I wouldnt blame you 

Dan Campbell (+850, didnt realize he was the favorite)

Sean Payton (+900)

Shane Steichen (+2500)

Arthur Smith (+1600)

Matt Lafleur (+1600)

Matt Eberflus (+1100)

[BobbyPhil1781]

4 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Again you say Cousins is whatever but can you honestly be 3x more confident in Goff? If it was +200 for both teams to win that division then sure but its like +140 to +300 for Detroit/Minny. I feel like buying Detroit now is buying Goff at the high point. Now I know it isnt all Goff, Detroit is better everywhere except WR/TE probably. Detroit probably should be the favorite but I just dont like the price. 

I don't hate your logic at all. I'm not totally buying Goff as it is more than I'm not buying every other team. Goff did do wonders on a team much worse off than he was in LA so are we seeing a new him or is it a fluke? We don't know that but I do think every other team got worse (minus the Bears but they're too much of a longshot at this point) and the Lions got a lot better so I'm banking on those things all being true. Definitely aware that when the dust settles it might not be but do you not think that assessment of the division isn't accurate?

[BStanRamFan]

I really love Trevor Lawrence MVP (+1600) and CJ Stroud OROY (+900)

I might parlay them both for $50. 

Jags I believe will finish as a 13-14 win team this year and top 2 in AFC. Lawrence with year 2 under Pederson + Calvin Ridley should see some gawdy numbers. The narrative will be there.

For Stroud, I just think hes in a weak division with a good O-line, an above average RB and has a top 5 TE in Schultz. If he can grab 5 wins, 3000 yards passing, 500 yards rushing and 25 TDs (combined) he should have it

Edited June 20, 2023 by BStanRamFan

[BobbyPhil1781]

3 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

I really love Trevor Lawrence MVP (+1600) and CJ Stroud OROY (+900)

 

I might parlay them both for $50. 

 

They've been talking Stroud up all camp. That's a good bet there. I find it hard to bet against Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert etc as MVP but at that price, it's worth a sprinkle. I'll probably do that as well and play them separately

[SmittyBacall]

11 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

I really love Trevor Lawrence MVP (+1600) and CJ Stroud OROY (+900)

 

I might parlay them both for $50. 

 

Burrow is winning MVP. No need to flirt with value.

[adamq]

20 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Burrow is winning MVP. No need to flirt with value.

Can't say I've paid much attention to NFL awards, for whatever reason it's never mattered to me..  is there voter fatigue with MVP a la the NBA? To me that's the only way Mahomes doesn't win it. They are running out Kelce and a bunch of nobody's at WR and RB, I think that adds a lot to his case. Rodgers leading the Jets to ~13 wins would get all kinds of media buzz too

[SmittyBacall]

6 minutes ago, adamq said:

Can't say I've paid much attention to NFL awards, for whatever reason it's never mattered to me..  is there voter fatigue with MVP a la the NBA? To me that's the only way Mahomes doesn't win it.

I can see a world where the “tie” goes to the newbie. I can also see Burrow outproducing Mahomes and winning outright. 

7 minutes ago, adamq said:

Rodgers leading the Jets to ~13 wins would get all kinds of media buzz too

I don’t think they’re going to come close to 13 wins. 

[SmittyBacall]

20 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Burrow is winning MVP. No need to flirt with value.

To expand on this, I wouldn’t make this bet if I didn’t think Burrow was capable of posting MVP numbers. He was a finalist in 2022 even after he started the year horribly slow (coming off injury), and his supporting cast has only improved in my opinion. For the first time in his career he may actually have competent pass pro in addition to elite weapons - it’s a recipe for massive production.

Secondly, if you’re into narratives, I think the NFL and NFL media want Burrow to win. He’s hip, he’s cool, he rivals Mahomes, and everyone is always looking to crown someone new. It’s just good for business.