Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

TNF props are out, so I'm getting on the board with 1 play - Justyn Ross TD +650 / +9000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) on DK - it's +430/+4000 on FD, and I think the latter is close to the actual prob, especially with Jody Fortson out.    KC has already said Ross is not a starting-3 guy, but someone who will be used in packages.   Thing is, the RZ is an obvious fit, given his skill / size (and no Fortson).  

Obv more to come, but this is one where I think the DK line is going to shrink massively, so getting on board now.  In the event Ross is inactive - it voids, so nothing lost in taking the dive now.

[adamq]

Caesers promo for new users.. get at me for a referral link and promo code!

 

Deposit and place your first real money wager of $50 or more to receive five (5) $50 bonus bets

[JaguarCrazy2832]

On 8/30/2023 at 7:57 PM, Rainmaker90 said:

There’s a prop that sticks out like a sore thumb

 

Amon-Ra St. Brown

 

999.5 receiving yards. DK

 

Year 3, last year he had 140 targets, and that could/probably will increase.. I don’t like betting overs but he can miss a couple games and get that . 

Thats a good one, Hockenson gone for a full season, Jameson still out 6 games and there isnt a WR on this team besides him you’re confident in getting 550 yards

[thebestever6]

8 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Obv more to come, but this is one where I think the DK line is going to shrink massively, so getting on board now.  In the event Ross is inactive - it voids, so nothing lost in taking the dive now.

already went down to +550 lol

[Broncofan]

The other play I'm taking now - Jahmyr Gibbs O25.5 rec yds 2.2U to win 2U - KC's pass D is still set up to funnel to RB/TE's and limit the WR's, and obv this is what Gibbs was drafted so early for.   I'll def be interested in the alt lines when they come out, too.

EDIT: DK alt lines came out Sun night at 50+ Rec yds +320 and 75+ Rec yds at +1000 so I took 1U and 0.5U (usual 3.5U alt play).   24 hours later the O30.5 and 50/75 alt lines are +250 and +750 wow   

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

DK is back offering the 7-pt auto-win payout for KC-DET - because DET hasn't played their starters, I think KC going up 7 pts in the 1H is a very reasonable prop.   So I'm actually going to eat a lot of chalk with KC ML -230 on DK (to win 1U).    If that hits, I'll be very tempted to play DET live spread - because if they're down 7, with a 6.5 pt spread, they'll be 10-13 pt underdogs, depending on who has the ball.   And that's one way to try and middle the result - KC auto-win, but get value on the DET spread.   

If you don't have the auto-W offer, definitely would pass though.  The above is predicated on having a W in the bank, and then seeing if we can double it by playing it both ways with an advantageous number instead of having to choose now.

[SmittyBacall]

3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The other play I'm taking now - Jahmyr Gibbs O25.5 rec yds 2.2U to win 2U - KC's pass D is still set up to funnel to RB/TE's and limit the WR's, and obv this is what Gibbs was drafted so early for.   I'll def be interested in the alt lines when they come out, too.

 

God, I love that we're back. Lay it on me @Broncofan.

 

[Broncofan]

For the posters who weren't around, a few comments before the NFL season starts:

1.  ATS/ML plays - if you are only taking favorites, you're giving Vegas a massive edge.   Dogs are close to 60 percent winners ATS the last 2 years.   The other interesting part - when the spread is 6 pts or less, the team that covers wins about 89 percent of the time - obviously, that means that the favorite wins when they cover as well - but it also means that dogs often win outright, instead of just covering.    I get that ppl sometimes feel safer with the dog spread, and there will be times that they cover but still lose - but overall, committing to more ML plays in sub-6 pt dogs has proven to be profitable.

2.  Player props - the under is a leverage spot for Vegas - because casuals and non-casuals still prefer to bet the over.   It's human nature - you are never truly out of it, and you can also win early.   Having said that, I still bet overs 95+ percent of the time - but as those who know me well, know that I look for leverage spots where big +money alt lines (offered on B365, DK & FD) are available - so if I hit even the 1st alt line, I don't just double my winnings there, but often go 3-4x, and if the 2nd alt line hits, it's a 6x+ type result.   That also allows me to be profitable the last 3+ years even if I'm "only" at 50 percent for my player props.

3. TD props - I look for leverage spots, where I think the payout is out of line with the probability.  That means I'm usually looking for +400 plays.  That also means in a good year, I'm hitting 20-25 percent of my plays - but at +400 or more, I'm generating profit.  That requires both discipline and patience, because it also means more plays miss than hit.   

4.  General principles - I'm looking for areas where there's value relative to the probability / risk.   But, I'm picking my spots - because unlike the casual public assumptions that Vegas gets lines wrong all the time - for football, I don't think that's the case.   I look for edges on the margins - which is why player props and longshot TD's are a favorite area, because that's where less scrutiny is often applied.    But we're also talking on a Sunday with 12+ games, 24 teams with 6+ skill players, who have yardage & TD props, so we're talking 300+ possible props.   And I'm talking 10-15 of them (6-8 player yardage props, TD props for the rest)....so you get the idea it's really skimming the tip of the iceberg (hopefully).   It also highlights a principle I'll focus on more on single-games - don't go crazy with 5-6 player props in 1 game, unless there's a clear edge you can see (NYG-MIN WC game a great example).   If you're doing 5-6 player props and 3-4 TD props each prime-time game - you're likely overestimating your analytics edge.    For a full card, diff story, as there are 12 games to pick from.    Let's see how it goes...

 

5.  MOST IMPORTANTLY - Bankroll management & personal responsibility - I can't stress this enough, I'll post my plays, but please bet responsibly.    No matter who you follow - it’s your money, so manage it so you can live with the results either way.  When I say 1U, I mean 1/100 of my bankroll.   And to be transparent, betting 20U in 1 day isn't great - if you only have a 100U bankroll.   I've been lucky enough to accumulate 3 years of profit my actual bankroll is now much larger, for those with a 100U bankroll, I'd actually recommend half-size of my bets.   Still, because I've been doing it for 3+ years now, I'd rather stick to the same formula, so ppl get used to the confidence / risk I'm attributing from prior years.  

 

OK, that's all - let's get this going for 2023!  Glad we're back!

Edited September 1, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

Justyn Ross is +900 to score on bet365 I should of checked that before I put it in lol. Usually their td props suck.

[Broncofan]

DK 2 more TD props for - Cole Turner +1600 / +25000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U & John Bates +900 / +10000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U DK.  
 

The books assume Logan Thomas will play but he just returned and calf strain.   Howell has mega connection with turner in preseason.  Again if Turner inactive then the bet voids but Thomas is +235 right now so if he’s inactive both lines drop a ton.   Worth a sprinkle.   

Edited September 4, 2023 by Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

On 9/1/2023 at 9:46 AM, Broncofan said:

For the posters who weren't around, a few comments before the NFL season starts:

1.  ATS/ML plays - if you are only taking favorites, you're giving Vegas a massive edge.   Dogs are close to 60 percent winners ATS the last 2 years.   The other interesting part - when the spread is 6 pts or less, the team that covers wins about 89 percent of the time - obviously, that means that the favorite wins when they cover as well - but it also means that dogs often win outright, instead of just covering.    I get that ppl sometimes feel safer with the dog spread, and there will be times that they cover but still lose - but overall, committing to more ML plays in sub-6 pt dogs has proven to be profitable.

2.  Player props - the under is a leverage spot for Vegas - because casuals and non-casuals still prefer to bet the over.   It's human nature - you are never truly out of it, and you can also win early.   Having said that, I still bet overs 95+ percent of the time - but as those who know me well, know that I look for leverage spots where big +money alt lines (offered on B365, DK & FD) are available - so if I hit even the 1st alt line, I don't just double my winnings there, but often go 3-4x, and if the 2nd alt line hits, it's a 6x+ type result.   That also allows me to be profitable the last 3+ years even if I'm "only" at 50 percent for my player props.

3. TD props - I look for leverage spots, where I think the payout is out of line with the probability.  That means I'm usually looking for +400 plays.  That also means in a good year, I'm hitting 20-25 percent of my plays - but at +400 or more, I'm generating profit.  That requires both discipline and patience, because it also means more plays miss than hit.   

4.  General principles - I'm looking for areas where there's value relative to the probability / risk.   But, I'm picking my spots - because unlike the casual public assumptions that Vegas gets lines wrong all the time - for football, I don't think that's the case.   I look for edges on the margins - which is why player props and longshot TD's are a favorite area, because that's where less scrutiny is often applied.    But we're also talking on a Sunday with 12+ games, 24 teams with 6+ skill players, who have yardage & TD props, so we're talking 300+ possible props.   And I'm talking 10-15 of them (6-8 player yardage props, TD props for the rest)....so you get the idea it's really skimming the tip of the iceberg (hopefully).   It also highlights a principle I'll focus on more on single-games - don't go crazy with 5-6 player props in 1 game, unless there's a clear edge you can see (NYG-MIN WC game a great example).   If you're doing 5-6 player props and 3-4 TD props each prime-time game - you're likely overestimating your analytics edge.    For a full card, diff story, as there are 12 games to pick from.    Let's see how it goes...

 

5.  MOST IMPORTANTLY - Bankroll management & personal responsibility - I can't stress this enough, I'll post my plays, but please bet responsibly.    No matter who you follow - it’s your money, so manage it so you can live with the results either way.  When I say 1U, I mean 1/100 of my bankroll.   And to be transparent, betting 20U in 1 day isn't great - if you only have a 100U bankroll.   I've been lucky enough to accumulate 3 years of profit my actual bankroll is now much larger, for those with a 100U bankroll, I'd actually recommend half-size of my bets.   Still, because I've been doing it for 3+ years now, I'd rather stick to the same formula, so ppl get used to the confidence / risk I'm attributing from prior years.  

 

OK, that's all - let's get this going for 2023!  Glad we're back!

Any time i back a dog i split the bet between ML and spread. 80-90% on the spread and rest on ML

[NYRaider]

@N4L @Broncofan

bless us with week one plays

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

@N4L @Broncofan

bless us with week one plays

Justyn Ross TD, Jahmyr Gibbs rec yds & WAS backup TE TD props are out - but other than TNF, no player props other than some games with TD's.   I expect the props to start coming out in force on Tues/Wed.

As a bonus, I'm going to throw 0.5U on Travis Hunter to win the Heisman at +8000.   That's just too insane for the football version of Shohei Ohtani - a truly dominant 2-way player.    Obv the QB's are a massive favorite, but 80-1 is too good to pass up.

Edited September 3, 2023 by Broncofan

[BobbyPhil1781]

What are thoughts on WInning Margin (4 Way) bets? I see decent + money for small favorites to win by 1-13 points. Just seems like a better valued ML pick but obviously have to worry about blowouts. I'd be curious how many times a 3-6 point favorite wound up winning by at least 14 in previous seasons.

Edited September 3, 2023 by BobbyPhil1781

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

What are thoughts on WInning Margin (4 Way) bets? I see decent + money for small favorites to win by 1-13 points. Just seems like a better valued ML pick but obviously have to worry about blowouts. I'd be curious how many times a 3-6 point favorite wound up winning by at least 14 in previous seasons.

The data on that doesn’t show as much of a profit.  Unlike dogs who win when they also cover the frequency of being in the right score node doesn’t even come close to the increased payout.