Weekly Bets Thread

[BobbyPhil1781]

3 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

Running the boosts I talked about and then a small parlay of

KC +1.5

Goff alt passing 225

MSV 25 Alt yards

Mahomes 2 TDs

Keeping it a little light tonight to feel things out

Felt weird taking the Chiefs +1.5 but wanted that small buffer and glad I did. 

Nice little chunk to offset the loss of that stupid Kay Adams boost since I put a 50% boosted u on this

Edited September 8, 2023 by BobbyPhil1781

[101Raider]

13 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

That's a joke. What did Jamaal Williams have last year? 15?

I’m feeling pretty good about that 6.5 right now 

[Broncofan]

Man, the Mahomes boost owners have to feel snakebit.  Literally 70+ yards of dropped passes, he gets to 300 easy, instead he doesn't even get the 250/1 Kay Adams prop.   Brutal.

The Mahomes rush props were accurate, but sadly DET decided to only target Gibbs 2x..and none in the 2H.  Ross got in the RZ for 2 plays, and was isolated once, but they went Gray's way.   
 

1-2 props, 0-1 TD plays so -3.5U start, way it goes.   Mahomes pass yards was a 10th percentile type outcome, while Gibbs lack of pass work was surprising, but the hazards of week 1 projections.   While Ross didn't work out TD-wise, that's also the life of +650 plays, even if it's value....still miss more than they hit.

Looking forward to Sunday's games - I won't complain about a KC loss, as it certainly helps my CIN SB Fanduel (get 10 percent of bet back with each W - up to full bet stake) props, and my RL fandom.   

Edited September 8, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

I lost all my gibbs props plus they kay Adam's boost and still only lost 12 dollars of my money. Kay Adam's was a free bet for depositing money.

I got 4 w's Montgomery  over 49.5 rush yards

St Brown over 15 yards first quarter 

Goff and Mahomes both to pass for a TD

And Detroit money line up by 7 win out thanks @Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Crappy night:

Mahomes 3 pass TDs

KC ml and Detroit 17 points

Kay Boost

All were looking solid at HT. 

[stl4life07]

Yeah I took two losses. The Chiefs lost and Gibbs didnt get over 28.5 receiving yards. I think better days will be ahead for Gibbs at least I hope bc I have him on my fantasy team too. 

Cant wait for Sunday but yeah last night definitely didnt get off on the right track. 

[Broncofan]

Ok my last player prop for Sun got posted & 1 TD prop: 

 

Jahan Dotson o43.5 Rec yds 2.2U to win 2U, 75+ yds +340 & 100+ yds +950 0.5U DK - even with Terry Mclaurin likely playing I think this is a smash spot with Ari pass D and Sam Howell’s connection with him.   I have the projection with Mclaurin playing still a5 5/65 so apt line territory.   If you have both DK and FD I’d want to see the main 70/90 lines on FD, but I’ll take 75+ at +340 and 100+ at +950 for the 1.5U alt line.    B365 likely might be better than either so check it out.  My #2 confidence play.    

Roschon Johnson +900 FD (now +800), +7500 DK 0.4U / 0.1U - FD doesn’t do 2-TD plays once you get super LONGSHOT territory so I’m splitting this.  He’s the pass receiving back and could be in the 2-minute drill.   Because Fields could easily vulture a TD (and it’s a rookie debut - see Gibbs) this is a 0.5U play.

I am still looking at Juwan Johnson as he’s +330 on FD but they often have last-hour odds rises so I’m willing to wait for now. 

 

Added to my Sunday card - full card here below: 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 8, 2023 by Broncofan

[BobbyPhil1781]

W/ Carr's love for TEs, I will be playing Johnson 2 TD long shots a couple of times this season. Just want to see that this trend will follow suit first and all of the sudden he doesn't start using them b/c Thomas and Olave are on the field.

[BobbyPhil1781]

So it looks like FD might have trash odds compared to other books. This seems to be par for the course for them which sucks b/c I like their UI better than DK.

 

[thebestever6]

Sam Howell to throw for 2 Tds is +154 on fanduel that seems like really good odds

[BobbyPhil1781]

11 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Sam Howell to throw for 2 Tds is +154 on fanduel that seems like really good odds

Jalen Hurts is plus money also

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

So it looks like FD might have trash odds compared to other books. This seems to be par for the course for them which sucks b/c I like their UI better than DK.

 

I find where FD can often better is with longshot TD's, but I do look every now and then they have a better player prop line than DK or B365 as an opener.    TBF it's also a case where they open late on Friday, when line movement has taken away a lot of closing-line value (CLV) away.  DK and B365 are almost always out early in the week, FD usually after the TNF game.

Edited September 8, 2023 by Broncofan

[101Raider]

1 hour ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

So it looks like FD might have trash odds compared to other books. This seems to be par for the course for them which sucks b/c I like their UI better than DK.

 

on DK:  

Etienne at +600

Dobbins +550

Akers +400

Edited September 8, 2023 by 101Raider

[BobbyPhil1781]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

I find where FD can often better is with longshot TD's, but I do look every now and then they have a better player prop line than DK or B365 as an opener.    TBF it's also a case where they open late on Friday, when line movement has taken away a lot of closing-line value (CLV) away.

This is good to know. I am new to using multiple books and wish Pikkit wouldn't error out when trying to add my DK account lol. 

Finding the differences between the two is important to me so I know where the best place to add my bets are at in terms of providing the most value. I appreciate that information. Thank you

[BobbyPhil1781]

1 minute ago, 101Raider said:

That Etienne bet is now at +600

On FD? OK, this is good if that's the case.  I asked earlier if there was much of a difference between books b/c w/ baseball, it's stupidly different in value so hoping they tend to be similar so I can still enjoy the app that provides the best end user experience to me rather than having to jump back and forth.