Broncofan Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 (edited) 26 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: faaaackkk loss Allen by a half yard and Kincaid by 2 bad beats. Way it goes - Allen got hurt on first botched snap. At 29 yards with 20 mins left then didn’t run until last drive. Kincaid had 19 yards at halftime then got a bad spot - the original line was 26.5 so lost at 26 yards. Man that stung. 8U swing on those 2 L’s by 1 yard each. Oh well, that’s the risk. Back at it on week 2 TNF! MNF - 1-0 ML, +1.2U; PLAYER PROPS 0-2 (ugh 1 yd each), -6U, LONGSHOT TD 0-1, -1U -5.8U WEEK 1 ATS / ML - 2-1, +1.2U. PLAYER PROPS 5-7, -6.5U. LONGSHOT TD - +8.3U. NET - +3U (44U stake). Edited September 12, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 3 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said: used mine on knox td also have bills -2.5 lazard td a sgp of gabe davis under 60 yards, d cook under 50 rush yards, and under 51.5 3 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said: Also have Rodgers INT +120 hopefully the rodgers int bet gets voided at least the sgp hit (+240) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 Well DK already has some props out (lol) for TNF, and there's one that stands out already - Dallas Goedert O38.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ +150 1U, 75+ +480 0.5U. I know, Goedert got 0 yards on 1 target. So how on earth can I take this play right now? Well, 4 reasons: 1. Goedert was on the field 92% of the time, and he ran routes on 95% of the pass plays he was on the field. 2. Goedert is one of the most efficient players around when he's targeted, witness: 3. Besides the horrible weather, NE has a top 5-6 pass D vs. TE's, allowing <700 yds in 2022. MIN is more middle of the pack, and last year, Goedert went for 5-84 (on 6 targets). 4. Finally, Sirianni himself pointed out post-game in NE that they need to get Goedert more involved. And keep in mind, Goedert's never gone 2 games with less than 6 targets in 1 game since he took over from Zach Ertz. I'm probably going to see if Goedert TD line comes in at +300 or better, too. The O38.5 sure looks like a week 1 overreaction - much like how Devonta Smith went 0-0 last year, then 6-80 the following week. Now maybe new OC Brian Johnson doesn't quite have the hang of things yet, but Sirianni's direction seems pretty clear to me. There are no TD props out yet, and secondary MIN props aren't out (JJ is at 92.5 rec yds already lol), so gotta wait for the rest. BOL! WEEK 1 ATS / ML - 2-1, +1.2U, PLAYER PROPS 5-7, -6.5U; LONGSHOT TD 3-8; +8.3U. +3.0U (WEEK 1 - +3U, WEEK 2 - ) 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 Goedert is up to o41.5 already. Wow. Still worth a play but the downstream effect is it decreases the value of alt lines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 I lost last night with Buffalo ML. I couldn’t believe it when I woke up. There’s two pick I love and am in with. Mia ML at NE Pitt +2 home vs Cle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wentz you dog you Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said: I lost last night with Buffalo ML. I couldn’t believe it when I woke up. There’s two pick I love and am in with. Mia ML at NE Pitt +2 home vs Cle I am on the other side of the coin... Stopped watching when Wilson threw the interception and was certain I had a loser in Jets ML. I will take some good luck. NE defense is LEGIT so be weary on that. I like the MIA bet more than the Steelers. Steelers just look flat out bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 (edited) OK so there's another TD opportunity for TNF that's out of line - it's Rashad Penny at +750 / +10000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U. Why is this such a good play? 3 reasons: 1. Gainwell is actually hurting, and it's a short week. 2. Penny is still the big bruiser RB, so as long as he's active, there's an excellent chance he gets work in the RZ. Of course Jalen Hurts is a huge threat to vulture TD's, which is why the line is so wide...but that gets me to: 3. FD & B365 are offering odds in the +200 to +250 range (which is too low obv). This is the kind of contradictory book edge I gain confidence from. 4. If Penny is inactive, then nothing is lost, bet voids. OBV if you don't have DK, then look and see - I'd probably take +400 to +500 at other books that offer it, given the Gainwell news & short week (but need that given Hurts rushing the ball himself). BOL! Edited September 12, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 14 minutes ago, Broncofan said: OK so there's another TD opportunity for TNF that's out of line - it's Rashad Penny at +750 / +10000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U man he's only +600 on my dk still tailing though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, thebestever6 said: man he's only +600 on my dk still tailing though It's the Gainwell news that dropped the odds. Penny is pretty binary because he doesn't play ST - he either is active because they think they'll use him a fair bit, or he's inactive. Of course, inactive status voiding bets is OK for us. Edited September 12, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 Put one in on Cinci to win the division +245 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 That Rodgers injury cost me so many Garrett props smh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 15 hours ago, Rainmaker90 said: Put one in on Cinci to win the division +245 Betting Cincy division before the season started is always a bad idea bc they start so slow. That price jumped 125 in 1 week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 15 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Betting Cincy division before the season started is always a bad idea bc they start so slow. That price jumped 125 in 1 week I like a parlay of Cincy & Pittsburgh ML this week just because I feel like this division is destined to all be 1-1 at the end of this week...it's going to be a slog the entire year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Ray Reed said: I like a parlay of Cincy & Pittsburgh ML this week just because I feel like this division is destined to all be 1-1 at the end of this week...it's going to be a slog the entire year Yea I am on Pittsburgh ML, I did get sucked into taking Baltimore +3.5 but now I'm wondering if I need to cash that out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BStanRamFan Posted September 13, 2023 Author Share Posted September 13, 2023 TJ Hockenson over 45.5 receiving Yards. Alt line 50+ is +110. And I'm also sprinkling 75+ PHI defense funnels to the middle of the field. Hock averaged 55.5 YPC as a Viking last year (minus the Week 18 game he got sat for playoff seeding being locked up). Should be high scoring and that contract has to start paying dividends. Devonta Smith over 5.5 receptions +125. Just too much value at +125 to pass up. He should see 8-10 targets. If this gets to even money it loses its luster. AJ Brown is also scoring a touchdown. VIkings new defense under Flores runs Cover 1, blitz heavy man and Brown will beat that deep atleast once. Hock O45.5 Smith +5.5Rec +125 AJ Brown Tuddy +110 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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